Tony Blair Saves the Democrats

As you have probably read by now, Tony Blair is going to announce that British troops have a timetable to begin leaving Iraq. Some by the end of this year, all by the end of 2008.

Why does this matter? Because for one, every other politician or country advocating a pullout has been spinned as someone who will embolden the terrorists or simply let them win. A recent incidence of this is John Howard’s swipe at Barack Obama.

Now, whatever you think of the war, it just became a lot easier today to advocate a pullout when any candidate now can simply respond by pointing to the British example.

The White House is trying to spin this as proof that the British area is stable enough to leave, but frankly, I find that argument unpersuasive, since America is currently arguing over whther to send more troops to Iraq. If we need troops so badly, and Britain is pulling out only because they were successful, why not use the British troops in the north? The Australian government offered a similar argument, buffeted by bringing up the success of the Iraqi security forces. But none of the arguments mesh with the ongoing surge debate.

Now, I’m not taking a position here whether the withdrawal is right or wrong, whether America ought to stay in Iraq, etc. That’s not what we do. I’m merely commenting that the British withdrawal will give a pretty solid argument to those arguing for a withdrawal. Obama’s position on Iraq in a day turned from Kucinich-lite to Blair-esque.

This will provide the working example that Libya’s renouncement of nuclear weapons did in the last presidential campaign.

Also, it’s incredibly interesting that what Labor MPs are saying is almost verbatim what Hillary Clinton is saying - they do not regret their vote, but it was time to pull out. Of course, the British seem a lot more likely to accept that sometimes intelligence is wrong, they do not regret their vote, but it is time to leave. Strange how that sort of argument would be taboo on both sides of the aisle here in America.

In short, the Iraq debate just completely changed. I don’t think McGovern comparisons areat all relevant any more.

I’ll post candidate reactions sometime within 24 hours, assuming they do so.