Poll Vaulting: Blacks to Obama, Evangelicals to Giuliani

The fallout from the South Carolina endorsement shenanigans seems to have helped Obama and hurt Clinton. An ABC-Washington Post poll found:

Clinton’s and Obama’s support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.

African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he began his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.

Overall, Clinton is still beating Obama 36 to 24, with Gore at 14 and Edwards at 12; take out Gore, and Clinton leads 43-27 over Obama with Edwards at 14. None of the other Democrats were above 3 percent. These numbers are not important - at this point it’s mostly a popularity contest. The trends that are emerging are important, though. Obama taking advantage of a black politician endorsing a candidate as a means to gaining popularity amon gblack voters is important. It’s also notable that virtual unknowns like Obama can quickly turn around their polling numbers. There’s no way Clinton, for instance, could hope for anything so dramatic among any demographic.

The good news for Clinton is that at the height of dissatisfaction with the war, she is still doing well among those who may not share her position:

The Post-ABC News poll found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake, however, 31 percent said she should apologize. Among Democrats who called the war the most important issue in deciding their 2008 candidate preference, Clinton led Obama 40 to 26 percent.

The Republican side of this poll is equally as interesting.

In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.

The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.

This is borderline unbelievable, to an extent, and I have to wonder what staying power this will have as Giuliani’s positions on abortion and gay rights become more well known. The poll continues later on:

When Republicans were asked to rate Giuliani, McCain and Romney on a series of attributes, Giuliani was seen as the strongest leader, the most inspiring, the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election, the most honest and trustworthy and the one closest to them on the issues. McCain was seen as having the best experience to be president, but only by a narrow margin.

Giuliani faces potential problems because of his views on abortion and gay rights. More than four in 10 Republicans said they were less likely to support him because of those views. More than two in 10 Republicans said there was “no chance” they would vote for him.

Giuliani on the whole is up 44-21 over McCain with Gingrich still polling steady at 15% and Romney only at 4%. Take out Ginrich, and Giuliani leads a whopping 53 to 23.

Get ready for a race to the right, because the only way for any of the candidates to beat Giuliani is to pitch themselves to the right of him on these social issues, and then make them the focus of the election. The only possible exception is that McCain could make it about war experience, but even then, if Giuliani continues to co-opt McCain’s message, I don’t see McCain making up this kind of deficit.

In summary, the chances for upsetting the frontrunners in both polls seems to be going with the base: to the right on social issues for republicans, and to grassroots campaigning for democrats. Giuliani and Clinton for the most part seem to be guarding the middle successfully. The rare exceptions to that - Joe Biden and Tommy Thompson for the most part - are so far removed from the base that they have virtually no chance of doing anything except marginally affecting what is discussed.