Poll Vaulting: Obama Behind Hillary, but Ahead in General Election Polls

The new Zogby Poll is out (which polls nationwide), and it is noteworthy not for the numbers of the poll, which by itself are very par for the course, but for the matchup strength in the general election.

Republican Results:
Giuliani 29%
McCain 20%
Romney 9%
Rice 7%
Gingrich 7%
Brownback 4%
Tancredo 1%
Hunter 1%
Someone else 4%
Not sure 19%

Giuliani leads in nearly every demographic; McCain only approaches him among voters older than 50. Also notice the lack of Mike Huckabee’s name. Among conservatives, it’s a little different:

Among those Republican voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney wins 23%, compared to 22% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The much–ballyhooed very conservative vote is split even more among second–tier candidates, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice winning 13% support and Sen. Sam Brownback winning 9%. Giuliani (4%) and McCain (3%) failed to win more than token support among this demographic.

Democratic Results:
Clinton 33%
Obama 25%
Edwards 12%
Richardson 5%
Biden 2%
Clark 1%
Someone else 3%
Not sure 20%

It is interesting that Obama continues to climb towards Hillary (a month ago he was down at 14%). Also interesting is the demographic results:

In the Democratic race, Clinton wins solid support among older voters, while Obama has the edge among younger counterparts. Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. Progressives gave the nod to Obama, while moderates favored Clinton. The two were deadlocked at 30% support among male Democratic voters, but Clinton led among women, 34% to 22%.

In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters – 54% – said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed. While his overall support lags, Edwards appears to have strong–minded backers: just 28% said they are likely to jump from the Edwards ship over the course of the next year.

As mentioned above, the noteworthy part in particular is the general election matchups.

Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40%
Giuliani 40%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40%

McCain 47%, Clinton 39%
McCain 40%, Obama 44%
McCain 47%, Edwards 38%

Romney 35%, Clinton 45%
Romney 29%, Obama 51%
Romney 32%, Edwards 47%

As you can see, McCain and Giuliani poll almost exactly the same in the general election, as do Clinton and Edwards. Romney is behind, but that can at least partially be attributed to his low level of notoriety, particularly among people who will not be voting in the GOP Primary. The surprise is Obama polling so well compared to Edwards and Clinton. He makes in roads that neither of them with all their notoriety can make. And if Clinton and Edwards can’t amke up that ground by now, it’s unlikely they will suddenly be able to a year from now. The question, though, is how much this will hold up for Obama as his policies become more well known.