Barack Obama’s Debate Weakness
April 7, 2007 | Permalink
[NOTE: This post was originally published in early 2007 prior to the first Democratic primary debate. Some of the analysis is still relevant, but it is dated. For more recent analysis by experienced debaters, listen to our podcast discussing the first debate between Barack Obama and John McCain (or subscribe to our podcast directly), or check out our live blog of the first presidential debate.]
With the first democratic debate coming up at the end of the month, we at 2008 Central will be analyzing the debating skills of various candidates. First up, we’ll be looking at Sen. Barack Obama…
There’s no debate over Sen. Obama’s oratory skill - he is gifted. Aside from overusing a lightly uttered “uhh…” as a transitional device, his execution is basically flawless. That being said, exceptional delivery does not necessarily translate into a strong debate performance. Debates are dynamic, engaging and force candidates to respond to stimuli in short order; thus, creating a rare opportunity for voters to see raw emotion and hear/see unprocessed responses. Now, I realize that candidates prepare extensively for debates, thereby reducing the likelihood that raw, unprocessed responses slip out. But, they’re still there…
In terms of the debate, Sen. Obama has the most to lose and the least to gain. Obama’s rhetorical abilities are well established and many voters have their impression of his personality already. These existent impressions positive, so a stellar performance at the debate won’t enhance the perception of him, but simply reinforce it. However, if he conducts himself out of character (and expectations are already pretty high for him), he runs the risk of disillusioning his rapidly growing base. In my opinion, the Senator has weaknesses that if exploited could make the debate and the ensuing political consequences very interesting…
Sen. Obama does not like to be pressed. When pressure is applied to him, he becomes visibly agitated. His eyes serve as a billboard for the anger he feels…his hand gestures border on hostile…his responses curt. His debates with Alan Keyes are telling…
In his third debate with Keyes, Obama’s potential volatility are put on display (there are plenty of other examples, but I felt that these happen to be best ones).
In the beginning, the moderator pushes Obama to reconcile his positions on gay marriage, gay civil unions and his religion. Aside from the slight frustration visible on his face, his hand gestures better express his frustration constantly making the “stop” gesture.- 1 minute and 45 seconds into this clip, the moderator asks Obama if he thinks homosexuality is a choice. Prior to replying, Obama sighed. This is a pretty common question that I believe the Senator should have expected. A sigh was unnecessary. Obama wasn’t sighing because the question itself, but rather was sighing because he frustrated that the moderator was continuing his line of questioning.
- He can’t let things go. At 5:40 in this clip, he demands an unnecessary follow up (something he does fairly often)
7 minutes and 30 seconds into this clip, Obama puts his frustration with the debate completely on display with some over-the-top body language and facial expressions.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Obama’s performance in the aforementioned debate was bad, or sub par or anything like that. Rather, what I am saying is that the Senator has weaknesses that can be exploited by his rivals that may be better at pushing Obama’s buttons than Keyes. These weaknesses are enhanced by three factors.
- Sen. Obama is rapidly becoming the front runner, so poaching his supporters before they become too attached makes him a very attractive target. Edwards has massive incentive to do this.
- Dennis Kucinich can be aggressive and personally confrontational in these debates, which may not go over well with someone like Obama.
- Sen Obama’s political inexperience only enhances his volatility. Learning how to let comments roll by you and not affect you personally is something that this new big time politico is still learning.
We’ve seen Obama’s raw and unprocessed responses before. We saw it when he got swept up in the moment while discussing Iraq and said that “we have seen over 3,000 lives of the bravest young Americans wasted” [I'm not saying the comment was terrible, but it was something that Obama said he regretted]. We also saw the Senator respond pretty strongly to Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s attack on him.
Sen. Barack Obama has exploitable weaknesses, a track record of responding strongly to those that criticize him and tends to let unprocessed statements slip out when emotional. With the bar as high as it is for Sen. Obama, he’s going to need to prepare extra hard for these debates in order to avoid losing supporters, while at the same time knowing that it probably won’t gain him any extra. No doubt an unpleasant spot to be in.
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Agreed. And there is so much more. Read postings offering a fact based analysis of Barack Obama’s political record since 2003. What you see is not necessarily what you get.
Its sad, but it doesn’t seem like debates matter all that much anymore. At least primary debates, that is.
Nice post.
Nice work, guys; good post.
Thanks all. We’ll be running debate previews on the candidates as the first democratic and republican debates approach. Just something to watch out for…
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I’m afraid I do not understand what the author meant by Obama having a weakness. Emotions do not always cloud your judgement. They often reflect it. A person whose understanding is deeply ingrained in their personality will begin to feel when something is wrong.
That he has emotions is a good thing. If he doesn’t have emotions, he can’t be passionate, which is the most important quality in a good leader.
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I realize I’m just an average american, but this Pastor Right who seems to be hurting Obama by association is just another frustrated American who is speaking out about the policies of this and quite possibly other adminstrations. We do have the freedom of speech, and it is okay to listen to how others are feeling. Thats why I like Obama, he is a good listener. Could you pass this strategy on to him, I think others might relate to this. Also, look at the flag burning during the Vietnam war. Americans are known to let their spirit show it some of the most extreme ways when frustration is unleashed.
Thank you
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[...] toast of McCain in the debates. Psssst. He went to Harvard. They don’t let dummies in there… didn’t do so well with Alan Keyes the bettors were unimpressed Not much praise here either he may read speaches well but he’s a [...]
I disagree that “Obama has the most to lose and the least to gain”.
McCain has only two arguments to make to the voters. One is that he’s more experienced. The other (questionable) claim is that he is now a “maverick reformer”, in an obvious attempt to distance himself from Bush and to co-op Obama’s “change” mantra.
Consider McCain’s recent inability to discuss the President of Spain. It seemed, when he was asked by an interviewer, as though he didn’t know who he was.
All it takes is one similar slip-up in the debates, one admission of ignorance (expecially if Obama can jump in with the correct answer), and all of McCain’s claims about the importance of experience will dim - as people begin to wonder if those 72 years have their toll on his memory.
As for McCain’s claim to be an agent of “change”, that is so ludicrous, his past loyalty to Bush so well-documented, that it leaves him wide open in the debate to be exposed as a fip-flopping hypocrite.
And finally, there is McCain’s infamous temper. If pushed, he could display a nasty side that most voters haven’t seen. Compare that to Obama’s unflappable cool.
McCain has just as much to lose in the debates as Obama - probably more, since McCain has the inadmirable task of playing catch-up in a year when the voters want to throw the rascals out.
The biggest problem is that Keyes makes absolutely no sense. There is no intelligent way to respond to his hypothesis that homosexual couples adopting children will lead to incest, when he himself admits it is no more likely that heterosexual couples adopting. Keyes explains a case against adoption, but singles out homosexuals for his own political use. His circular hand motions give him away. He’s the professor that uses big words not to enlighten but, in the words of the SImpsons, to “embiggen” himself.
Spoil what? Waste what? Steal what?
Barack Obama we do not doubt your intelligence. To be an effective leader one must display honesty, compassion, & guts. Stand with Ralph Nader, Ron Paul, & Cynthia McKinney. NOT John McCain. Your choice - your move.
People critise the Bush Administration for giving the greegy banks all our money, actually U.S conservative politicians have been giving the most undeserving all our money for years. This bail out is a classic case of “Socialism for the rich” ie capitalise the profits and socialise the losses.
How to slug the working and middle classes for corporate welfare has become an art form at the white house and the Republican’s on the hill.
John McCain (basically a good man) will loose in November if hel wants to keep to Bush’s core strategy of giving away all our hard earned tax dollars to that part of the corporate sector that does not add real value to the economy (ie Wall Streeet).
If he had any brains he would come up with a stimulus package give money to our manufactures and put back in some of the past trade barriers to stop the flow of ‘cheap and nasty’ goods from countries like China as at least we would get some real jobs and economic activity.
John McCain should understand that whilst ‘Joe the plumber from Ohio’ may in the main be a very patriotic and religious guy who in normal times would want to vote for him, he ain’t totally stupid……. he knows when someone is breaking into his house and stealing all his valuables (and in this case even his house!).
If the Republican’s won’t give concrete plans for how they are going to stop these crooks from continuing to steal our money (and our houses) and save main street except for ‘generalisations’ about how bad they are and how he won’t do the same again, then what use is the “average joe” going to get from voting for the McCain Pallin ticket?
I’M GLAD OBAMA WON BECAUSE THE WORLD NEED A PRESIDENT THAT’S GON FIX THIS BAD LIVING,NOT A PRESIDENT THAT’S GON BE ANOTHER BUSH LIKE MCCAIN ALL I CAN SAY IS,”MCCAIN YOUR NOT A GOOD PRESIDENT YOU WANT TO BE LIKE BUSH AN BUSH WAS A BAD MAN,MCCAIN YOU AND BUSH SUCKS.
i think mr obama will do a good job if everyone else helps to has to be a change and i think this is the man for the job.
Weel its a year in and obama has not done anything that has improved this country