Poll Vaulting: McCain, Clinton Lead in Iowa; Romney Gains, Obama and Fred Thompson Fall

The American Research Group has released two new polls from Iowa for both Republicans and Democrats. I’m going to compare those results with the results form the May 2007 poll conducted by the Des Moines Register.

Starting with the Democrats:

A few interesting things that stand out. First is Barack Obama’s precipitous fall in the ARG poll. The margin of error is 4%, which could put him even behind Richardson. His campaign might have to ask if he is spending enough time there, getting to know enough insiders to get a caucus victory. John Edwards is trending the wrong way in Iowa (even after the withdrawal of Tom Vilsack, which Edwards had obviously hoped to use as a boost), but Edwards still remains a clear number two overall in recent polls. The Des Moines Register poll gives Clinton something to worry about, but she’s still ahead. Richardson clearly is breaking from the second tier twoards the first tier. Whether he has enough gas in the tank to get to the top tier is still a question that needs to be answered. The lower tier really is not doing anything that notable.

I’m interested in the ARG poll though - every month they seem to have one candidate really fall in the polls, only to rebound the next month. In April it was Clinton. In May it is Obama - there hasn’t been any type of indication that Obama’s support is this low. So until there is some confirmation of that, take it with a grain of salt.

Now, the Republicans:

Looking at the Republican results, one thing that jumps out is Fred Thompson starting to drop before he even gets into the race. But like Obama above, it’s hard to judge the validity of these results without independent confirmation; and the Des Moines Register poll did not include potential candidates like Thompson or Gingrich.

Among the top group, it’s clear that Mitt Romney is the one with all the momentum. Giuliani seems to have weathered the storm, as he is no longer bottoming out, but he’s not even where he was a mere few months before. Romney, on the other hand, keeps trending up. The30% of the Des Moines poll is not repeated once Thompson and Gingrich are included, but he’s still growing. John McCain seems to be losing a little ground, but retaining most of his supporters in the state that he skipped in 1999.

On the lower tier, the hope for the lower tier that the Des Moines poll gave - bumps for Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo - seems to be erased in the ARG poll. I have to wonder if the now imminent entry of Fred Thompson into the race spells the end for this lower tier. Not only do they have to distinguish themselves from the top tier, they also have to distinguish themselves from each other. I imagine that the Republican debate on Tuesday will be a key last time for that to happen; if not, it will certainly be the Iowa Straw Poll in August.

There’s reasons to take these polls with grains of salt - for instance there’s reasons to both include and exclude declared candidates like Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich - but it’s worth keeping in mind exactly who these polls include while considering what they mean. For instance, Al Gore was not included in any of the Iowa polls.