Candidate Reactions to Declassified National Intelligence Estimate On Iraq

Yesterday, the National Intelligence Council released previously classified portions of the National Intelligence Estimate On Iraq.

• NIE - Prospects For Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead [January 2007]
• NIE - Prospects For Iraq’s Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive [August 2007]

Below are the candidate reactions to this newly declassified information…

Barack Obama

In response to the declassification of the National Intelligence Estimate today, Barack Obama released the following statement, and proposed immediate reforms the United States should undertake to begin the withdrawal of our troops to put pressure on Iraq’s leaders to resolve the political impasse at the heart of this civil war, and to ease the growing humanitarian crisis in the country.

“This National Intelligence Estimate underscores the fundamental truth that we cannot continue to substitute the bravery of our troops for a true commitment from the Iraqi government to resolve the grievances at the heart of their civil war, and a true commitment from the Administration to aggressive diplomacy” said Obama.

Obama believes the only solution to this civil war is political, not military, which is why he proposed and continues to urge a withdrawal of American forces engaged in combat that puts pressure on the Iraqi government to reach the political accommodations that will prevent further disaster. He also proposed specific steps to alleviate the urgent humanitarian crisis created by this war and warned of in the NIE. More than four million Iraqis have already been displaced, some two million into neighboring countries. An additional 50,000 Iraqis are fleeing their homes each month. This requires urgent action by the United States government and the international community, not a stay the course approach that puts the sole responsibility on our troops.

Obama proposes we:

* Responsibly redeploy our troops from Iraq by issuing a transparent time table for the planned withdrawal of our troops.
* Aggressively surge the diplomacy required to press for a political solution within Iraq, and to keep neighboring countries from fomenting instability in Iraq.
* Dramatically increase assistance to Iraq’s two million displaced.
* Dramatically increase assistance for refugees, including the more than 2 million in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.
* Fill the 7,000 asylum slots in the United States that the State Department pledged to fill earlier in the year. Political leadership will be required to expedite the department of homeland security’s review of Iraqi asylum applicants. Thus far, this year, only 190 Iraqis have been allowed into the United States – an embarrassing number given the scope of the problem, and the fact that many Iraqis have risked their lives working with American forces in Iraq.
* Appeal to those countries that were part of the Coalition in the Iraq war to expand their refugee quotas and to increase bilateral assistance to Iraq’s neighbors who are carrying the refugee burden. Arab governments, especially US allies in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, should also be enlisted.
* Ensure that our military and financial assistance to Iraq’s government and security forces is not being diverted to sectarian militias.
* And make clear to the militia leaders and government officials in Iraq that the United States and the international community is going to catalogue and prepare to hold the perpetrators of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide accountable for their crimes.

Chris Dodd

“The reported conclusions of the latest NIE are another sign that, even as American troops continue admirably to serve in Iraq, the Iraqi government has done virtually nothing to put its house in order. With no progress on political reconciliation between the various sects in Iraq, it is clear that President Bush’s tactic of troop escalation has failed to achieve its goal of convincing Iraqi leaders that they must take bold steps to promote stability and reconciliation in Iraq. In fact the report confirms that Sunnis and Shia remain deeply suspicious of each other with no sign of reversing that belief anytime soon. Indeed, this report is further evidence that there is a disconnect between military operations to establish security in Iraq and elsewhere in the country and the willingness of an Iraqi political leadership to take advantage of improved security to promote political compromise and reconciliation on behalf of all Iraqis.

“I do not believe that Iraq’s political leaders will have any incentive to demonstrate bold leadership and reach a political accord until we begin redeploying American troops and it is clear that finally they must fully assume responsibility for their country.”

Hillary Clinton

“As I have said many times before, there is not a military solution in Iraq. Progress will only come from political reconciliation and compromise from the Iraqis themselves. In January, President Bush argued that the escalation of U.S. troops into Iraq would create the political space for reconciliation among the Iraqis. At the time that the President announced the escalation, I opposed this new strategy because I did not believe the Iraqi government was committed to making the tough political decisions necessary for Iraq to resolve its sectarian divisions. Indeed, the declassified key judgments from the most recent National Intelligence Estimate regarding “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability” clearly demonstrate that progress toward political reconciliation in Iraq has not been achieved since the beginning of the President’s decision to add additional troops into Iraq. The NIE’s key judgments provide additional evidence that the President’s escalation strategy has failed. We need to stop refereeing this civil war, and start getting out now.”

Joe Biden

Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D-DE) issued the following statement today after key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) were released to the public:

“The unclassified “Key Judgments” of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq underscore the fatally flawed premise of President Bush’s Iraq policy – that surging American troops will buy more time for the central government to succeed. As the NIE makes clear, “Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively” and “broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long term political progress and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.” Absent an occupation that the U.S. cannot sustain or the return of a dictator which we do not want, Iraq cannot be governed from the center. We need to stop the surge and start to get our troops out, while separating the warring factions and supporting the emergence of a decentralized, federal Iraq that gives each group control over their daily lives. That’s what the Iraqi Constitution calls for. And that’s the only way to leave Iraq without trading a dictator for chaos and setting back our national security interests for a generation.”

John Edwards

Senator John Edwards released the following statement about today’s new National Intelligence Estimate report on Iraq.

“As today’s new National Intelligence Estimate reveals, the violence in Iraq remains high, attempts to reconcile the political factions have failed, and the political leaders remain ‘unable to govern effectively.’

“It is more obvious now than ever before that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not doing a good enough job leading his country. Job performance matters in a democracy. Iraqis should replace al-Maliki with a leader more capable of unifying the country’s warring factions and achieving the political solution that will stabilize Iraq. However, American policymakers must focus on comprehensive solutions, not individual band-aids. And they must avoid the conventional Washington-style decisions that created the Iraq mess in the first place.

“We need bold change and real solutions in Iraq, not more of the same. The fact is that just switching one leader for another, when the country is in a state of turmoil, will not alone solve the problems there. Even worse, if individuals become the focus, our approach will become less comprehensive, more ad hoc, and possibly more likely to fail. The entire Iraqi government is failing its responsibility to bring about a political solution to end the sectarian violence that is plaguing Iraq. Unfortunately, as long as President Bush pursues his failed military strategy, Iraqi leaders have a ready excuse to avoid responsibility. We need to force them to take responsibility, and the best way to do that is to leave.

“I am the only candidate to call for an immediate withdrawal of 40,000 to 50,000 troops, to jump-start all parties to let go of the crutch of the American military and start working on a real countrywide political solution. Congress also must have complete information about a political solution well in advance of the end of October, when they will again have the opportunity to use their Constitutional funding power to force the president to change course.

“I am also calling today for an immediate diplomatic offensive from the Bush Administration. This ‘diplomatic surge’ must begin with an ‘Iraqi Stability Conference’ that would include high-level meetings by American and allied diplomats with all leading Iraqi Parliamentarians, sectarian leaders, the governments of both Iran and Syria, and leaders in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and Kuwait. These meetings should be aimed at real commitments of how these parties will contribute to a long-term comprehensive plan to stabilize the country.”

Should any additional comments be made regarding the NIE, we will add them immediately.