Poll Vaulting: Campaigns Spin Latest Des Moines Register Poll (12/31/07)

The Des Moines Register released the results of the latest Iowa poll yesterday evening and the campaigns have been spinning all day today. First, the results…

Republicans

• Mike Huckabee - 32%
• Mitt Romney - 26%
• John McCain - 13%
• Ron Paul - 9%
• Fred Thompson - 9%
• Rudy Giuliani - 5%
• Not Sure/Uncommitted - 4%
• Duncan Hunter - 1%
• Alan Keyes - 1%

Democrats

• Barack Obama - 32%
• Hillary Clinton - 25%
• John Edwards - 24%
• Bill Richardson - 6%
• Not Sure/Uncommitted - 4%
• Christopher Dodd - 2%
• Dennis Kucinich - 1%

Like most polls, I think the press and the campaigns are seriously overestimating this poll’s significance.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Obama campaign made no attempt to play down expectations and instead seized upon the figures to argue that they have momentum on their side:

The headline: ‘Obama widens lead over Clinton.’

Here are the numbers:

Barack Obama 32%
Hillary Clinton 25%
John Edwards 24%

The details get even better. Here are a couple of quotes from the accompanying article in tomorrow morning’s paper:

“The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register’s poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners.”

“Obama’s rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator….”

The momentum is ours in Iowa and across the country.
The Edwards campaign sent out a press email today reminding everyone how off the mark their predictions were leading up to the Iowa Caucus in 2004:

While Senators Clinton and Obama pursue an endless money chase, we thought this comparison might be helpful.

DEAN
KERRY
Early Primary State Organization

[and then goes on to provide quotes of inaccurate prognostication]

Mark Penn for the Clinton campaign quickly dissected the model that the Des Moines Register used for the poll and instead talked up today’s Zogby and CNN polls that both have Hillary Clinton ahead:

Two new Iowa polls are out today. In the Zogby poll, it’s Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25. In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, Hillary leads with 33 percent, Obama 31, Edwards 22.

*****

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney decided to play the expectations game and make it clear that he would be satisfied with a second place finish, saying at a campaign stop today:

“If I get the silver, I’ll be pleased to get one of the top two tickets you get in Iowa”

But clearly, the Romney campaign is nervous, otherwise, they wouldn’t have released a harsh criticism of Gov. Huckabee today, titled: “Gov Huckabee can’t keep up with both foreign affairs and Britney Spears.”