Pre-Florida Results Notes

Below are some thoughts before the results of Florida’s primary are released…

• I was thinking this earlier, but Michael Crowley actually wrote it down and contextualized it. What if Obama out-performs polls in Florida? Clearly, that would be a big story after Clinton touted it so much. Of course, Clinton’s talk about seating the candidates probably allows her to not be worried about such a phenomenon, as presumably voters would be attracted to a candidate saying their vote counts more than one staying silent on the issue.
• Exit poll alert! McCain up barely over Romney, with Giuliani nowhere nearby. On this basis, I’m predict it for Romney. Exit polls are never right, and McCain’s organizing on early voting was awful compared to Romney and Giuliani. And Romney is apparently up in the absentee voting, as it turns out.
• We stayed out of this one because it was obvious, but McCain pretty much lied about Mitt Romney and the surge. Justin at Donklephant was a bit more charitable to McCain than I would have been, but right on all points, and far better than most mainstream coverage. I’ll add that these sort of dishonest attacks are going to hurt McCain among the independent base of his that values his ’straight talk.’ I wish columnists would draw the necessary conclusions about what this says of McCain’s campaign instead of using limited lines like ‘misleading low blow‘ or something similar. It’s a bit shameful that most of the heavy lifting on this was done by pro-Romney sites like the National Review.
• Meanwhile, Romney attacks McCain over spending … that is, not doing enough of it.
• How much will getting the endorsements of Crist and Martinez help McCain? That it’s a closed primary with only Republicans, and they are more moderates, means possibly not as much as he would like.
• Also, as far as delegates, it’s winner take all. But that 2 point win or loss margin sure doesn’t sound that bad, does it? In other words, this is the third fight of McCain-Romney, not the last. (Apologies to SC, Wyoming, and Nevada, but you were not really contested by both even if you were won by one.)