When Does Leading Become Winning?

The Clinton and Obama campaign are arguing over what tomorrow’s primaries are going to mean. That is when Obama is going to secure a majority of pledged delegates. That won’t be enough to put him over the top - he’ll need more superdelegates and add-ons, but it does mean something. The Clinton campaign has essentially three responses:

1) Michigan and Florida!.

2) So what, you need superdelgates.

3) Millions more have to vote.

The third is the easiest to debunk. It’s superficially true, but ultimately pointless. After tomorrow, there are three primaries left: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. Using the population figures of Wikipedia (because they’re freely available), 98.1% of the country will have had a chance to vote in the Democratic primary. (This includes territories, since they vote in the primary.). I doubt the last 1.9% will be the deciding factor.

The first is fairly easy to debunk as well. Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote with Michigan and Florida included, but as RCP makes clear, she deliberately is not including the results of any caucuses that have any threshold requirements for viability. That makes results harder to gauge, but not impossible. For instance, no one disputed that Obama won Iowa. Moreover, if you include just Florida, where Obama was on the ballot, he is ahead in the popular vote count still. And in Michigan, while Clinton is strong, subsequent polls show a tight race. I’m willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in that state in terms of being a strong candidate, but not infinitely stronger as her campaign would want you to believe by citing that election as meaningful. For instance, if you take Clinton off the ballot in the next most populous state, she would lose 330,000 votes and the popular vote would be out of reach. Moreover, Clinton herself had said that the Michigan primary would be meaningless. I’m all for looking to it for some meaning, but the particular vote count is pretty pointless. Even giving Obama the uncommitted vote in Michigan would give him the popular vote lead.

And as for the argument relating to superdelegates, well, Obama has more endorsements than Clinton on that front now.

No wonder Warren Buffett said the race was over today.

In short, to answer the headline question: it already has. Everyone is allowed a chance to vote, and the vote is meaningful, but not every vote is going to be decisive…

Why No Posts Lately?

Apologies all around for the lack of posts lately.  Rest assured it’s unpleasant for us as well.  We will be back soon.

Both of us are law students and we are both tied up with final exams.  Exams will be over soon though, so hang in there and please accept our apologies.

In the meantime, feel free to contact us with questions, site suggestions, comments or complaints.  Also, if you would like to write for the site or if you’re a blogger and would like your content to be cross posted, please get in touch with us as well.

Best,

Angelo & John

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The Kentucky Derby: A Bad Sign For Hillary

Interrupting studying for law school exams with breaking news. This past week, Hillary Clinton commented on the Kentucky Derby:

“I hope that everybody will go to the derby on Saturday and place just a little money on the filly for me. I wont be able to be there this year – my daughter is going to be there and so she has strict instructions to bet on Eight Bells.”

And today, Eight Belles finished … you guessed it, second. And not only that, but broke both ankles afterward and had to be euthanized on the track.

I imagine that Clinton will stay away from this analogy from now on … to say the least. Yikes.