Wednesday Senate Roundup

Short introduction: We’re going to try to have these posts up every day or two. I’m relying on Nate Silver’s electoral projections to determine which get coverage. We’re not normally going to cover races where he projects a party as having a 95% chance or better of retaining its seat. That is a completely arbitrary choice on my behalf. My goal is to highlight anecdotes and happenings that normally would fall through the cracks.

NRSC head John Ensign wants to limit Senate losses to four. That’s overwhelmingly probable; right now the polling indicates that the Democrats will pick up New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado; most other competitive states are leaning Republican right now (all of which were previously held by Republicans). The closest bubble state is actually in Alaska. Silver projects Anchorage mayor Mark Begich as having a slim lead over Ted Stevens right now, but that is obviously very precarious. It is possible, though not probable, that Democrats could gain as many as seven seats in the Senate, as Charlie Cook says. Moreover, the Obama effort at voter mobilization, even in states he is likely to lose, is probably going to come in useful.

Virginia: Jim Gilmore is still the worst candidate this cycle. When conservatives argue that there are Americans willing to do the jobs that illegal immigrants do, I did not take it to mean that said Americans were Senate candidates.

Kentucky: Memo to Bruce Lunsford: Letting Jim Gilmore steal your thunder is never a good idea. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell is insulted that anyone thinks the race even might be close. Lunsford took advantage of the repeal of the Millionaire’s Amendment by SCOTUS to donate an even one million to his campaign. He’s got a long, long road to go, though.

New Hampshire: The Nashua Telegraph listed lobbyists that represented 2008 earmark recipients and donated to the NH delegation, including John Sununu. Sununu defended the donations, stating, “It’s not where it needs to be, but people have begun to focus on fixing the problems. … People understand it needs to be transparent, and (understand) the need to look at additional checks and reforms.” The Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire endorsed Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen is pushing Sununu on science, even going to laboratories to underline the point.

Kansas: The Kansas City Star points out that a race between a longtime Senator in Pat Roberts and a Washington lobbyist in Jim Slattery is not that exciting in a change election. Roberts has close ties to Bush, but Slattery has not lived in Kansas for 14 years and has lobbied in the meantime. Slattery also wants to make Robert’s record as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee a campaign issue. Roberts has a big cash and ad advantage over Slattery.

Minnesota: Jesse Ventura is in the race! Or he isn’t. Or who knows. Meanwhile, more bad news for Al Franken: his PAC filed a campaign finance report late last year and had to pay a fine. This follows similar administrative kerfuffles with not paying taxes and a workers comp fine. This is why it is important for candidates to run for lower office first: it serves as effective vetting. Keep this in mind when considering VP possibilities for Obama and McCain. The administrative faults and satirist history of Franken have made what otherwise would be a probably Democratic pickup into a safe Republican seat, as this Star Tribune editorial indicates. Franken is also getting hit for his support of the Free Choice Act, which is being pushed by unions. In something the Coleman campaign must be laughing themselves to death over, Franken had to apologize for belittling Coleman’s accomplishments as Senator.

Colorado: Bloomberg looks at cousins Mark Udall and Tom Udall, Democratic Senate candidates from Colorado and New Mexico, respectively; Oregon Republican Senator Gordon Smith is their second cousin. Mark Udall talks about land use in the article: “Some of the traditional uses of our public lands are being pushed off; hunting, fishing, climbing, skiing, those are all important to us as Westerners.” Republicans are going to push both Udalls on environmentalism. It’s a good look at the relationship between the two of them. Udall is pushing for more money for firing ranges, something most coastal Democrats would never do. Udall wants to delay the Southern Delivery System (a water pipeline for Colorado Springs), which has upset a lot of people in Colorado. The Colorado Springs Gazette is not convinced by either Udall or Bob Schaffer running as a centrist, and looks to their records for proof. Bob Schaffer denied securing an earmark that was tied to fraud.

New Mexico: Tom Udall touted his raising 2.1 million the last three months. Steve Pearce has not said much, and it is not surprising, given that he is a massive underdog at the moment.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole asked President Bush to declare the Lophelia Banks, a chain of coral formations off the Atlantic coast, a marine national monument. Democratic candidate Kay Hagen responded by attacking Dole for calling for more oil exploration at the same time. An editorial in the Greensboro News and Record explains that the DOE would have the ability to veto any drill sites, so there is no conflict of Dole’s position. The Raleigh News and Observer looks at Dole’s policies on Energy:

Dole has co-sponsored a Democratic bill to extend tax credits for clean energy.

She opposed the Consumer-First Energy Act to tax oil companies’ profits and allow for investigations of OPEC conspiracies to fix oil prices. But she said she would support a bill that repeals tax credits for the industry that were given back in 2004 and 2005.

She opposes coal-to-liquid technology because of concern for the environment and until two weeks ago was against offshore drilling. She now says she would support giving states the right to open their coastlines to drilling.

Last week, she co-sponsored Senate Bill 3202, major Republican bill, to search for more oil in Western states’ shale deposits and off the nation’s coastline, including North Carolina.

She says she supports stopping the storage of oil in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to put it into the supply chain.

New Jersey: New Jersey is last in the United States in money spent per federal tax dollar. Republican candidate Dick Zimmer hit him for it. Former Hillary Clinton finance director Samantha Maltzman is now working for Lautenberg.

Oregon: Republican Senator Gordon Smith accused Merkeley of breaking election law.The details:

Two television ads paid for and distributed by the Democratic Party of Oregon in the past week prominently feature Merkley. While neither ad says anything about his candidacy, and while the Merkley campaign claims that the ads were not created to support his candidacy, Smith’s campaign believes it is a blatant move to try to use extra funding from the party for more summer television advertising.
…
According to the Smith campaign, the Merkley campaign has violated the FEC rules that state a candidate running for U.S Senate in Oregon is not allowed to receive more than $485,200 from the candidate’s state or national party. Merkley had already received $386,088 from the Democratic Party before the ads were released. If the FEC rules that the $440,000 that the Oregon Democratic Party spent on the ads featuring Merkley went toward promoting Merkley as a candidate, he will be in violation of those campaign finance laws.

A day on the road with Merkley and his Toyota Prius. Merkley has changed his position on gay marriage. Meanwhile Smith has moved left enough that many conservatives are not going to support him this election.

Louisiana: John N. Kennedy is spending the week on a bus tour in Lousiana, and is pushing for debates.

Oklahoma: The Democratic candidate against Republican Senator James Inhofe will be determined by a July 29 vote. Probable candidate Andrew Rice sat down for a long interview with the Ada Evening News. James Inhofe praised the energy plan of T. Boone Pickens.

Idaho: The first sign of a campaign heading in the wrong direction is having to release an internal campaign poll to dispell rumors. So, congratulations Democrat Larry LaRocco on releasing your internal poll numbers. I’m not sure how touting being “only” 15 points behind is much of an accomplishment in a split field. Conservative Rex Rammell might take some votes from Republican Jim Risch, but it seems unlikely to be enough to swing the election, despite Rammel’s daughter going as far as to call Risch “a weasel.”  A LaRocco staffer discusses what it is like to work on the campaign. Unlike Lansford and Gilmore, LaRocco spent the day campaigning by working in a mattress factory.

Texas: Democratic Candidate Rick Noriega hit Republican Sen. ‘Big’ John Cornyn on reducing physicians fees from Medicare treatment. In the final vote today, Cornyn flipped his position and voted for the bill. Noriega has previously criticized Cornyn for flipping his position on the new GI Bill. Noriega is still a longshot, but these criticisms strike me more as baseless. A better example of Noriega’s problems is that he raised $930,000 in the second quarter; Cornyn already had 9 million in the bank before that quarter. By contrast, Tom Udall of the far less populous and wealthy New Mexico raised more than twice that much. I’m very doubtful that Noriega’s low key campaigning style can achieve an upset of the magnitude that Noriega will need.

Mississippi: Republican Sen. Roger Wicker criticized the Medicare Bill that passed the Senate today; he did vote against it. Wicker and former Dem. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove are interviewed about the election, and both try to claim the bipartisan ground, while Musgrove touts his fiscal and social conservatism. Musgrove had also previously hailed the Heller decision on the Second Amendment.

Maine: Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins is an ally of Joe Lieberman; Democratic challenger Tom Allen is an ally of Ned Lamont. And while Daily Kos commissions polls reliving the 2006 election, Collins is pulling away in Maine, ahead a whopping 25 points in a blue state.Meanwhile, former Dennis Kucinich operative Hubert Huffman is running as an indepedent, and will probably draw votes away from Allen. Thus, the Maine Democrats are taking Hoffman to court.