Mark Warner to Give Dem Keynote Address

Like Barack Obama in 2004, former virginia Gov. Mark Warner has an overwhelming lead to take a formerly Republican seat in the Senate. And now he is giving the Democratic keynote address.

Nate Silver:

Contrary to the reporting of some outlets, Hillary Clinton had never formally been guaranteed the keynote slot — rather, she had merely been guaranteed a prime-time speaking slot on Tuesday. But the perception out there was that Tuesday would be “her” night, and we can expect some growling from the PUMAs about Hillary being snubbed.

One would hope, however, that the Obama campaign was not so callous as to give Warner the nod without vetting/negotiating their position with the Clintons — perhaps in exchange for the prime-time slot that Bill was given on Wednesday night. To have had Hillary keynoting on Tuesday and then Bill headlining on Wednesday — he will surely upstage the VP’s speech — might have risked a Clinton overdose. There are risks in doing things this way too, however.

Biggest loser in all of this? Tim Kaine, who if given the VP slot, might seem like sloppy seconds next to Warner.

Silver also concludes that this might mean good things for Kathleen Sebelius as VP. This seems to eliminate Kaine as a possibility, and it also underlines the themes of change and being a Washington outsider.

Eve Fairbanks is underwhelmed:

When the Obama press-team email “WARNER TO DELIVER CONVENTION KEYNOTE ADDRESS” hit my inbox at 7:15 this morning, for a minute I actually thought, “Oh my God! It’s a coup! They’ve gotten John Warner to break ranks!”, until I clicked through and saw that, of course, the Warner in question was Mark.

I’m sure the charming, youthful, up-and-coming Warner will give a nicely charming, youthful, and up-and-coming speech in Denver. But I also think my reaction reflects something about Mark Warner: he’s a little forgettable, especially after he suddenly begged off of what seemed like an inevitable run for the top this year. I know he’s supposed to be the Next Big Thing in Democratic politics, but hasn’t that been true for a while now? Will he ever stop hovering around “Next” and make a pass at being the Big Thing proper?

Jim Geraghty takes the opportunity to hit Kaine, and to chide Warner for avoiding unpopular fights:

The Post quotes a Kaine source as saying the governor thinks he’ll get “the silver medal” in the veep race.

I am not quite convinced that that would be the decisive factor, as opposed to, say, inanely inaccurate statements in defense of Obama in recent weeks. After all, two Virginians gave the response to the President’s state of the union two years in a row, Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb.

At the 2004 GOP convention, Rudy Giuliani spoke Monday night and George Pataki spoke Thursday before President Bush (in probably one of his best speeches ever). Bloomberg spoke as well. A multitude of New Yorkers didn’t seem all that inappropriate for a convention in New York City.

All in all, for a Democrat, Mark Warner isn’t that bad, as a speaker or as a face of the party. Or at the very least, as governor, he was very, very careful to avoid unpopular fights.

Lynn Sweet laughs at anyone who thought Clinton would be giving the keynote:

The way these things work is that there are convention speakers and then there are people officially designated as keynoters. Such will be the case at the Democratic convention in Denver. With some fanfare on Sunday, some big name speakers were announced, including on Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). If you by chance thought she was the keynoter, you jumped to a conclusion. The keynoter, unveiled on Wednesday, is former Virginia Gov. and senate candidate Mark Warner.

Marc Ambinder noted two days ago how close Mark Warner could have been to running for President (and losing, since he would not have gotten the black vote that Obama got):

If Edwards’s affair had been revealed earlier, such as, say, right after it began, Mark Warner might have stayed in the presidential race. Indeed, if Mark Warner had decided to run for president, then he might have filled the anti-establishment void that Barack Obama jumped into. If, If, if.

I’m generally not a big fan of reading too much into keynote speakers. They generally have very little impact on the election. The tea leaves may indicate something, but it’s generally something very obvious. The obvious facts are these:

1. Tim Kaine was never the favorite for VP, and Mark Warner did not want to be VP.
2. Mark Warner shares a lot of traits with Barack Obama that Barack Obama feels are very important.
3. Mark Warner is from a swing state and is going to win his election going away.

I’m sure there will be some Clinton supporter unrest, but that seems to be inevitable at this point. It’s more important for Obama to emphasize what he is for than to worry about the remnants of the Clinton coalition getting upset at any particular position.

PS: Consider Sebelius my official VP pick, with Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the dark horse candidate (if he agrees).