2008 Central Election Projection

This is a prediction of what will happen in November, and not a prediction of what would happen if the election were held today, tomorrow, yesterday, or any day in between.

First, the solid states:

McCain Safe: 154 Electoral Votes
These states are not being contested by Obama now, and show no signs of being contestable by election day. Any one of these states flipping would cause absolute shock and consternation to the McCain campaign. There’s no surprises on this list. Two months ago Georgia, North Dakota and Alaska would not have been here, but those ships have long sailed for the Obama campaign.

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (10)

Arkansas (6)

Georgia (15)

Idaho (4)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Nebraska - West Congr. Dist.  and Overall (4)

North Dakota (3)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

Wyoming (3)

Obama Safe: 206 Electoral Votes
These states are not being contested by McCain now, and show no signs of being contestable by election day. Any one of these states flipping would cause absolute shock and consternation to the Obama campaign. A week ago I would not have had Michigan in this category before the McCain campaign pulled out of the state. Now, it’s as safe as any state, given the resources the Obama campaign put in and the existing infrastructure.

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Maine - Southern Congr. Dist. and Overall (3)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

Michigan (17)

New Jersey (15)

New York (31)

Oregon (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (11)

McCain Strong: 9 Electoral Votes

These states are being contested by the Obama campaign, but are unlikely to flip by election day. Montana might not be long for this list. West Virginia, on the other hand, seems destined to remain here util the end. Some would argue Indiana belongs here; the lack of any McCain ground game pushes it to the tossups.

Montana (3)

Nebraska - Omaha Congr. Dist. (1)

West Virginia (5)

Obama Strong: 33 Electoral Votes

These states are being contested by the McCain campaign, but are unlikely to flip by election day. I would have put Oregon, Washington, and New Jersey here a month ago, maybe. But they’re exceptionally unlikely to flip given the financial crisis. You can make the argument that Minnesota should be a tossup, but I tend to believe that the state will side where it normally does; it seems more of a tease for McCain to me, something like this cycle’s New Jersey or Hawaii, both of which Bush made late pushes for in 2004, but neither of which really were really risks to go Republican. It’s conceivable that McCain wins the state, but unlikely, even given some recent favorable polls. I might move it to a tossup if he receives another week of strong polling. Signs point to tomorrow’s Star Tribune poll being stronger for Obama, though.

Iowa (7)

Maine - Northern Cong. Dist. (1)

Minnesota (10)

New Mexico (5)

Wisconsin (10)

Tossups: 136 electoral votes

I’m making a few assumptions in this part that not all projections are making. First, that the race is going to tighten down the stretch. If that doesn’t happen, all of the following states are liable to go to Obama. Second, I am assuming that A McCain bounce over the last month wins him a state that right now Obama would be favored in. If that appears unlikely, future updates will be more aggressive. Third, I am assuming states whose populations are static are more unlikely to flip from Republican to Democrat or vice versa than states who have seen significant population growth during the past four years. Lastly, I’m going to err on the side of being conservative. If I’m wrong, I’m most concerned with still calling the right winner in the election, and just being conservative regarding the margin of victory. 

Going by the above numbers, McCain needs 107 electoral votes from these tossup states. Obama needs 31 electoral votes.

McCain tossups: 84 electoral votes.

Florida (27)

Indiana (11)

Missouri (11)

North Carolina (15)

Ohio (20)

Missouri to me is now the Republican equivalent of Minnesota: just tempting enough to make it a tossup, but it’ll only flip if there’s a landslide. Why is it a tossup then when Minnesota is not? First, Obama’s ground game in both states gives him an advantage. Secondly, the overall favorability towards Democrats and Obama right now makes Missouri more a play than Minnesota. But I’m anticipating moving Missouri to McCain safe next week. The election will not be decided in Missouri. Indiana is just behind it, and strikingly similar. 

Florida, on the other hand, I strongly considered giving to Obama. This Times story, for instance, tells of Democratic movement within the state. Moreover, Sarah Palin is not playin gwlel there. However, anticipating a McCain surge in the last month, I think Florida is the most likely state of ones Obama is polling well in now to flip back to McCain. The Times story highlights how late moving this movement is; I don’t think that type of movement is very strong. It could very well hold up. I would not be surprised if Florida went to Obama, but I’d like to see more than two weeks worth of good polling in the state before I project it for him. Ohio is Florida-lite in this scenario. The movement towards Obama the past two weeks has been minimal at best, and any McCain surge would almost surely ensure that the state stays red. I would not be surprised if it went to Obama, but if it does, it means Obama will have had a great closing month, or McCain a terrible one. I can’t project either right now.

North Carolina is somewhat in between these models, and is generally going more towards Obama by the week. Obama is pushing hard here, and I think it’s close to 50/50 as any state, but in that scenario I’ll give the tie to electoral history every time.

Obama tossups: 52 electoral votes

Colorado (9)

Nevada (5)

New Hampshire (4)

Pennsylvania (21)

Virginia (13)

The key state for Obama is Pennsylvania. If he wins Pennsylvania, he’ll almost assuredly pick up the other 11 electoral votes somewhere else. The polls were close until the past two weeks in the state, so it’s going to stay a tossup state for now.

McCain has had some good polls in New Hampshire, and will make a good push there, but the surrounding states and its vote in 2004 make this an uphill climb for McCain, even with his two primary victories. Obama has better polling numbers in New Hampshire than McCain as well.

I’m not sure how competitive the McCain camp thinks Nevada is. The voter registration and recent polling gives a strong advantage to Obama, but the electoral history gives the edge to McCain. This is on the verge of becoming another Iowa if McCain does not make an effective push shortly.

Obama has seen very good polling numbers recently in Virginia and Colorado, and may need to win one of them if McCain has a strong final month of polling. I think his chances are slightly better in Colorado than Virginia, even with the favorable results for recent Senate and Governor races in the Commonwealth. McCain might have comparatively more strength in the DC suburbs than in growing areas around Denver and elsewhere in Colorado. These two states are which I am the most loathe to make a projection.

Conclusion:

This election is likely to either be exceptionally and historically close (perhaps the closest electorally since the Tilden-Hayes election of 1876), or a whole series of states are going to go for Obama. The smart money is still on Obama, but don’t write off the former possibility.