Obama Up Big in Minnesota: Validates My Projection

The new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has Obama up on John McCain 55 to 37. A SurveyUSA poll this week had McCain up one point. Nate Silver weighed similar differences among the Senate polls of the state, and found that both were using too extreme a sample in each direction.

Conclusion? Obama is up, just not by 18 points. Minnesota will break Democrat unless something even bigger than the economic crisis happens over the last month that is uniformly bad for Obama and good for McCain. And if such an event happens, Obama will lose all over, not just in Minnesota.

To look at more of my projections, check out our first of many electoral college projections.