2008 Central Election Projection

[LOOKING FOR ELECTION RESULTS? Then Check Out Our ELECTION NIGHT LIVE BLOG]

This is a projection of what will happen on November 4, and not a prediction of what would happen if the election were held today, tomorrow, yesterday, or any other day. You’ll notice two states changed color from the last update two weeks ago - Ohio and North Carolina. A few other states have changed their categories as well.

McCain Safe: 136 Electoral Votes
These states are not being contested by Obama now, and show no signs of being contestable by election day. Any one of these states flipping would cause absolute shock and consternation to the McCain campaign. I mentioned conterveiling trends in Georgia last week, and am moving them to McCain lean this week to reflect the reality of how close the state will be. More on it below. I also moved North Dakota to McCain Lean. More on it below as well. What’s left is a handful of states McCain never thought of from day 1. 

Alabama (9)

Alaska (3)

Arizona (10)

Arkansas (6)

Idaho (4)

Kansas (6)

Kentucky (8)

Louisiana (9)

Mississippi (6)

Nebraska - West Congr. Dists.  and Overall (4)

Oklahoma (7)

South Carolina (8)

South Dakota (3)

Tennessee (11)

Texas (34)

Utah (5)

Wyoming (3)

Obama Safe: 206 Electoral Votes
These states are not being contested by McCain now, and show no signs of being contestable by election day. Any one of these states flipping would cause absolute shock and consternation to the Obama campaign. No changes here, again. 

California (55)

Connecticut (7)

Delaware (3)

District of Columbia (3)

Hawaii (4)

Illinois (21)

Maine - Southern Congr. Dist. and Overall (3)

Maryland (10)

Massachusetts (12)

Michigan (17)

New Jersey (15)

New York (31)

Oregon (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Vermont (3)

Washington (11)

McCain Lean: 27 Electoral Votes

These states are being contested by the Obama campaign - if only on the ground, but are unlikely to flip by election day. I added the caveat about ground work to reflect the work being done to make Georgia and North Dakota competitive on the ground, in part for the Senate race in Georgia.

As for North Dakota, there’s enough difficulty in polling and enough good results lately there to give Obama some hope, but it’s hope he doesn’t at all need, as one can tell by the map. There are two polls done in North Dakota this week - one showing it tied and one showing Obama with a narrow lead. If those hold up, it could move to tossup. As for Georgia, the math is definitely not trending in McCain’s direct. But it’s probably enough to hold up. Probably. 

As for West Virginia, there’s been enough polling in the state to throw cold water on it being a true tossup state, but it’s still close enough to be within reach. McCain has to play defense here is the key takeaway from the past two weeks.

Georgia (15)

Montana (3)

Nebraska - Omaha Congr. Dist. (1)

North Dakota (3)

West Virginia (5)

Obama Lean: 80 Electoral Votes

These states are being contested by the McCain campaign, but are unlikely to flip by election day.

I added Colorado to the list, based on the reports of McCain freezing spending there, even with McCain due to visit the state today. I also added Virginia, due to just the overwhelming majority of polls showing Obama with a strong lead there. These states are not tossups in the manner of states like Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and the others.

Colorado (9)

Iowa (7)

Maine - Northern Cong. Dist. (1)

Minnesota (10)

New Hampshire (4)

New Mexico (5)

Pennsylvania (21)

Virginia (13)

Wisconsin (10)

Tossups: 79 electoral votes

I’m making a few assumptions in this part that not all projections are making.

First, that the race is going to tighten down the stretch. If that doesn’t happen, all of the following states are liable to go to Obama, as well as perhaps some of the above. Even with tightening of the race, by this point, Obama would still be able to win states like Colorado and Virginia.

Second, I was assuming that A McCain bounce over the last month wins him a state that right now Obama would be favored in. I said before: “If a bounce appears unlikely, future updates will be more aggressive.” Well, a bounce now appears more unlikely, and therefore this update is more aggressive. I still think all the Obama tossup states are winnable for McCain, though. 

Third, I am assuming states whose populations are static are more unlikely to flip from Republican to Democrat or vice versa than states who have seen significant population growth during the past four years.

Lastly, I’m going to err on the side of being conservative (the non-political use of the word). If I’m wrong, I’m most concerned with still calling the right winner in the election, and just being conservative regarding the margin of victory. 

Going by the above numbers, McCain needs to not only win all of the below numbers, but also to steal 17 electoral votes from the Obama Lean category. The one state that gets him there is Pennsylvania. That explains his strategy of having to go all in Pennsylvania. 

McCain tossups: 22 electoral votes.

Indiana (11)

Missouri (11)

These two states are arguably ones that Obama would be favored in should the election be held tomorrow. I’m still not convinced, though. Obama has held huge rallies in these states and they will be extremely close on election night - and probably not be called early. If nothing else happens, I expect to move them to Obama tossup next week.

Obama tossups: 67 electoral votes

Florida (27)

Nevada (5)

North Carolina (15)

Ohio (20)

The big changes are Ohio and North Carolina. Obama has held onto a narrow lead in North Carolina for quite a while now. Of 19 polls listed on fivethirtyeight.com that were conducted in October, Obama had leads in 15, and two had a tie. If McCain is going to pull this off, even with the normally conservative lean of the state, he’s going to need a last minute surge.

Ohio is more of a mixed bag, but the state leans to Obama by 6 points even in the RCP average. Fivethirtyeight foresees obama winning by about four points. 

Conclusion: 

We have probably crossed the point where McCain has any realistic chance to win. It’s only a matter of winning v. landslide for Obama. Right now, I’d lean towards landslide. But that can change.

Obama: 353 Electoral Votes

McCain: 185 Electoral Votes