2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (10/15/08)

This podcast provides post-debate analysis for the final debate between Obama and McCain at Hofstra University…

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LIVEBLOG: Third and Final Presidential Debate At Hofstra University (October 15, 2008)

[NOTE: all times are central standard time]

6:40: As usual, we will be live blogging tonight’s final presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama.  The debate is taking place at Hofstra University.  It is set to begin at 9PM (eastern time).  It will be moderated by CBS’ Bob Schieffer.  The focus will be on domestic and economic issues.  As usual, we’ll be doing a post-debate podcast.  If you’re interested, take a moment to subscribe to our podcast.

7:23: If you’re looking to watch the debate video online, you can check out C-SPAN’s debate hub.  Just shield your ears from the agonizing call in show that precedes these debates.

7:33: The Executive Director of the Commission on Presidential Debates is talking about the significance of the debates both nationally and internationally.  In discussing the international perception and role of our debates, she said:

In all cases, they see our debates as integral to the democratic process.  And they believe that it’s remarkable that the American public thinks they have the right to expect the candidates for high office will stand in a neutral setting and talk to each other freely about important issues and ideas.

All I can say in response to this is: no.  “Talk to each other freely”?  Hardly.  These debates are incredibly scripted and controlled, with virtually every detail negotiated and agreed to by the campaigns in advance.  I’m not trying to bash the debates, but, let’s at least be honest with ourselves.  Like past debates, tonight’s debate is hardly a “debate.”

7:50: Look, we’re not only a nation of red states and blue states.  We’re also a nation of bright red outfits and bright blue outfits.  Michelle Obama is wearing blue, Cindy McCain is wearing red.  Sigh.  I wouldn’t note this, except, even these kinds of decisions are influenced or controlled by campaigns.  This is our politics.

7:55: Hillary is in the house.  She’s sitting pretty far back from the stage.

8:00: And, it begins…

8:02: First question: Why is your economic plan better than your opponent’s?

8:04: McCain says that primary cause of the economic problem is the housing crisis.  And, he notes his plan to use $300 billion to directly assist with the failing mortgages.  Obama notes the need to address multiple factors.  Neither had nothing new to say here.

8:08: McCain follow-up question: He asks Obama about his recent exchange with “Joe the plumber” and notes that Joe was concerned that Obama’s tax plan would hurt him.  Obama responds that Joe was mistaken, and that his plan would cut taxes for a significant portion of Americans.

8:10: McCain doesn’t understand why Obama wants to raise taxes at all, even if it’s on the richest Americans.  He chides Obama for wanting to spread the wealth.

8:12: Obama mentions Buffet again.

8:14: Question 2: How would you cut spending? (ugh, how many times are they going to ask this question)

8:15: Obama talks about the need to change our culture a bit, and the need for people and corporations to become more responsible.  Obviously, he doesn’t want to answer this question with any specificity.

8:16: What would McCain Cut? He argues that we need to become energy independent by building nuclear power.  Unfortunately for McCain, even if we started building power plants the day he took office, it would not have an effect on power for too many years to actually satisfy the short term need he talked about.  He goes on to talk about an across the board spending freeze.  The one specific example he offered was ethanol subsidies.  That’s not going to go over well in the heartland, even though our ethanol program does need to be reworked totally.  It can’t just be a cut in ethanol subsidies though, there would need to be additional reforms to make up for the losses those farmers would suffer.  Dah well…

8:20: McCain says that he is not President Bush.  Then talks about his fight for reform, ethic and fiscal responsibility.  He then challenges Obama to give examples when he has stood against his own party.

8:22: Obama says that he supports tort reform, charter schools and clean coal.  Each of which, he argues alienate an element of the base.  Pander Alert! The clean coal thing was just added in there to help support

8:24: Question 3: Are you willing to say face-to-face what your campaigns have said about your opponent?

8:25: McCain hits Obama on not accepting his offer to participate in town halls, which he considers to be one of the causes of the current tenor of the campaign.  He also criticized Obama for changing his position on campaign finance.

8:27: Obama says that people expect presidential campaigns to be tough. And adds that 100% of McCain’s ads have been negative.  He also pointed to some negative 527 group ads that are being run against him.  I don’t think Obama needed to bring up the 527s, especially since, this line of argumentation would reflect poorly on him as well given some of the really harsh 527s that are being run against McCain about his age and health.

8:30: McCain criticizes Obama for not criticizing Rep. Lewis.

8:31: Obama retorts by noting that his campaign did criticize Lewis’ statement.  He adds that Palin saying he pals around with terrorists, and the lack of response to some of the strong words from supporters, like “kill him,” that have come out at rallies have not been productive.

8:34: McCain’s response is beyond bizarre.  He says he isn’t going to let Obama criticize the people at his rallies that wear “women for mccain” t-shirts or the men that wear VFW hats.  This is total nonsense.  There is definitley a better response to this and I have no idea why McCain didn’t offer it.

8:36: ACORN and Ayers are discussed.

8:39: McCain continues to try and portray Obama’s relationship with Ayers and ACORN as substantial.  If this is the argument that McCain wants to make, again, the campaign needed to figure out a better way to articulate this message.  However, they didn’t.  It’s inconsistent and somewhat confusing.

8:40: Question 4: Why would the country be better off if your runningmate became president?

8:41: Obama notes Biden’s foreign policy experience and offers some legislative accomplishments he has made.

8:42: McCain says that Americans have gotten to know Sarah Palin. Calls her a reformer and a role model for women.  He cites her experience within the Alaskan energy sector.  McCain also talks about Sarah Palin’s work on behalf of special needs education, like autism.

8:44: Obama circles back to point out that across the board spending, which McCain said he would do in the beginning of the debate, would prevent the advancement of special needs programs.

8:45: McCain criticizes Biden for voting against first gulf war.  Calls his recent partioning plan in Iraq cockamammy.  McCain responds by wondering why Obama is always talking about more spending.  In other words, he wonders why research and development can’t be free.

8:46: How much can U.S. reduce dependence on Foreign Oil?

8:46: McCain says that it would take about 45 nuclear power plants and he gave a target number of 7 years or so before significant gains would be made.

8:48: Obama says that energy independence can happen within 10 years.  He notes that domestic oil will not satisfy our demands.  He talks about a few examples of alternative energy.  One of the things he talked about, which will resonate well in key states like Michigan, is the need to manufacture a fuel efficient car in the U.S.

8:51: McCain criticizes some of Obama’s initiatives as underming of free trade.  He specifically notes that Obama didn’t support the Columbian Free Trade Agreement.

8:53: Obama gives a reason for not supporting the Columbian Free Trade Agreement.  It has to do with human rights abuses.

8:55: McCain responds by saying that Obama doesn’t support the Columbian free trade agreement because of human rights concerns, but is willing to negotiate with Hugo Chavez.  He concludes by saying that Obama is like an isolationist and will raise taxes, then compares Obama to Hubert Humphrey.  The two aren’t exactly the same, it’d be nice if McCain provided a reasoned argument or a syllogism at some point in this debate.

8:56: Question: Do you favor controlling health care costs over expanding coverage?  If I liveblogged this, it would actually be unfair to John McCain.   Obama is simply outclassing McCain on this subject.  He is communicating his plan in more understandable terms than McCain’s.  That’s not to say that Obama’s plan is better, I am not endorsing one plan over another.  But, in terms of performance, McCain’s performance on this subject tonight was simply bad.  Obama’s wasn’t flawless, but at least you could understand his argument, even if you disagree.

9:06: Could you nominate a Supreme Court justice who differs with your view on Roe v. Wade?  McCain wouldn’t apply an litmus test and will appoint strict constructionists.  Obama says he understands that abortion is a difficult subject, says that he supports Roe v. Wade and believes that is important.  He gives an example of the equal pay, for equal work case that just came up.  Too much to get into here, but listen to our podcast for a discussion of it.  This was a very interesting exchange.

9:15: Does poor performance in school pose a threat to national security?

9:16: Obama notes that there is a national security element to education. Says the debate is between more money or reform.  Obama says we need both. Talks about his reforms in primary schools, recruitment of new teachers, recruiting of math and science teachers, etc.  He closes on the need for parents to play a larger role in the education of their children.

9:19: McCain says that education is a civil rights issue.  Adds that there needs to be competition in schools.  Is this a subtle argument for vouchers?  Also, says that charter schools are a good step. Alright…

9:20: Should federal government play a larger role in education?

9:21: Short answers: Obama, yes.  McCain, I really can’t tell based on his response.

9:22: Obama says that he also supports charter schools, but does not support vouchers.  McCain points to the voucher program in DC and argues for vouchers more generally.

9:25: As a debater, I didnt flow rebuttals.  Accordingly, I will not be blogging the closing remarks.

9:28: First thoughts?  Obama was on point, McCain was all over the map. This is not a partisan perspective, it’s not based on the policies that they advocated.  Rather, it is based on the how effective the candidates argued their opinions.

As an aside, this is not the best live blog that I’ve done.  The format was not conducive to a live blog.  We’re going to be posting a podcast shortly with full analysis, so subscribe to our podcast if you’re interested…

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Hofstra Debate Countdown Clock Has Wrong Time

If you’re looking for our snappy coverage of tonight’s presidential debate, then head here.  I considered posting this in the live blog, but I think this note is worth its own post simply simply to prevent some folks from missing the debate.

The debate is scheduled to begin at 9pm eastern (8pm central time).  I live in the central time zone.  When I go to Hofstra’s debate website, the countdown clock has the wrong time (see screen shot below).  Apparently, whoever set up the website didn’t account for anyone living outside the eastern time zone to rely on it.  Anyway, spread the word in case some may be confused.

For me, the countdown clock should read 1 hour, not 2…

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (10/12/08)

In this podcast we offer a preview of the third and final presidential debate between Obama and Mccain as well as an overview of the state of the campaign. We also discuss our most recent election projection and the polling trends during the last week. Additionally, we criticize both campaigns on their respective weaknesses and offer some unsolicited advice for improvement. And much more…

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Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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VIDEO: SNL Town Hall Debate

This is probably Armisen’s best outing as Obama.

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Hear, hear: Dial Groups Are Reckless

Mike Murphy writes:

I was doing some cable TV duty last night and had the bad luck to follow a segment about a focus group of voters being dial tested during the debate. Dial groups are bad enough, but actually putting this madness on television as a verdict of some kind is reckless.

Now, I’m no fool.  Given McCain’s poor performance, I recognize that Murphy has an interest in challenging the accuracy of dial groups.  However, just because he’s an interested party, it doesn’t mean his comments are any less true.

Dial groups are badness for a couple reasons…

• First, they aren’t really reliable.  The sample groups are too small.  Further, by having such immediate responses like dial groups, it’s worth considering what they are actually responding to.  It’s certainly not the idea or argument.  Dial groups encourage people to ignore the forest from the trees.  Instead of processing an entire response to a question, they dial in on words and phrases.  Something about that just seems superficial and anti-intellectual.
• Second, dial groups distort viewers responses to the debate.  Dial groups either separate people by poliitcal affiliation or gender.  Accordingly, viewers watching the debate who may have a reaction to a response that is counter to the dial group may think twice, or be less likely to hold a counter opinion in the first place.
• Third, they’re just annoying.  It’s annoying to watch lines go across the screen.  It’s also annoying to hear some of the insane things people in the dial groups say after the debate.

Indeed, the ultimate effect of dial groups is to tell you or assist you in formulating an opinion about the content that you are watching.  News agencies are to report facts and occasionally offer commentary.  They aren’t supposed to work this aggressively to shape your opinion.  Thus, Murphy is right - they’re reckless.

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VIDEO: Second Presidential Debate Between Obama and McCain (October 7, 2008)

Video and Transcript of second presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama.  It was held at Belmont University in Tennessee and was moderated by Tom Brokaw…

Transcript after the jump… Read more

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (10/07/08)

This podcast provides analysis of the second presidential debate between Obama and McCain, which was held at Belmont University in Tennessee.

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LIVEBLOG: Obama McCain Presidential Debate At Belmont University In Tennessee (October 7, 2008)

[All Times Are Central]

6:45: And we’re off.  Tonight is the second presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama.  It is scheduled to begin at 9pm eastern time.  It is being held at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.  The moderator will be Tom Brokaw.  The topics will focus on domestic issues.

6:53: Belmont’s mascot is “Bruiser the Bruin.”  He’s a bear! A very scary looking bear, I might add.  John McCain better watch out.  I’m not sure Bruiser would like to know about McCain’s criticism of the $3 million the government spends to study bear DNA in Montana.  Also, the university has lots of famous alumni who are country music singers - well done.

7:35: Pickens commercial on CNN.  I’m really getting sick of these natural gas commercials.

7:40: TPM issued a pre-debate post wondering out loud whether Brokaw is going to carry some water for McCain tonight.  My response: lame.

7:41: At the debate venue, Al Gore gets a standing ovation.  Awh.

7:43: One of the Co-Chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates is telling the audience not to clap or create other types of interruptions during the debate.

7:49: Tom Brokaw takes the stage.  He tells the audience that they will not tolerate any outbursts.

7:52: Now, there is just dead silence in the venue.  Between all the warnings not to make any noise, and fear of being ravaged by a pack of wild boars, I suppose everyone is simply to afraid to speak, even in these pre-debate moments.

7:53: I just saw that Cindy McCain said that Obama has “waged the dirtiest campaign in American history,” and her husband Sen. John McCain will use tonight’s debate to correct the distortions.  I’m going to refrain from commenting on the degree of dirty tactics used by Obama, but what I can say with great confidence is that this is not the dirtiest campaign in history.  See my post on historical perspective here.  It really annoys me when people who have the potential to be the in such prominent positions of government either intentionally distort or simply do not know history.  Shame on you.  Yes, really.

8:00: And here we go.

8:03: First question: What is the fastest way to help people in these economic conditions?  Obama acknowledges that we’re in a recession.  Says that the economy is the verdict of economic policies of the last 8 years, ties McCain to them.  His prescription: no golden parachutes for corporate executives of these failing financial institutions (I really hate this metaphor, it just sounds silly).  Obama also says that middle class tax cuts also need to be enacted.

8:06: McCain talks about energy independence as a potential solution.  Also talks about the need to control spending and address the national debt.  McCain says that as president, he would purchase the bad mortgages and renegotiate them.  I’m not sure this would address the value of homes though

8:08: Brokaw asks McCain who he would appoint as Secretary of Treasury.  McCain suggests that someone like Meg Whitman has the qualities that he would consider.  Yeesh.  He probably should have picked a different person to discuss given that eBay just laid off almost 10% of its workforce (about 1,500 people).  Obama shamelessly name drops Buffet - “Warren.”  As if.

8:11: Second question: How will the fiscal recovery package help people?  McCain takes a jab at Obama and Democrats for not taking action on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier.  Also, hits Obama on contributions from Fannie and Freddie.  McCain says that the bailout isn’t enough, talks about his mortgage plan again.  Obama talks about how recovery package is the beginning of the process and an important step in opening up credit.  Hits McCain on campaign staff that lobbied on behalf of Fannie and Freddie.

8:15: Follow-up: Will the economy get worse before it gets better? McCain references a letter that Senators wrote warning about this crisis, notes that Obama’s name isn’t on it.  Hmm, alright.  McCain also talks about how workers are the fundamental of the economy (clearly still doing damage control for his earlier statement about the fundamentals of the economy being strong.)

8:19: Next question: How can we trust either of you with our money, when both parties contributed to this crisis? Obama acknowledges frustration and cynicism.  He points to specific actions of the last 8 year that have uniquely contributed to the problem.  Obama also talks about how his policies would result in a net spending cut.

8:20: McCain also acknowledges frustration and cynicism.  Says that Obama hasn’t taken on his party, like he has done in the past.  Says that he has taken on his party and special interests.  Goes on to criticize Obama as the most liberal, big spending Senator.  I was right about McCain being afraid of Bruiser.  Instead of talking about bear DNA, McCain criticizes Obama for getting a $3 million earmark for a projector for a planetarium in Chicago.  Somewhere Neil Degrasse Tyson is weeping.

8:26: Brokaw asks what their highest legislative priorities would be.  I’m not blogging this.  Their answers are pure fluff.  If wishes and buts were clusters of nuts, then we’d all be squirrels…

8:28: Internet question: What sacrifices would you ask Americans to make?  McCain talks about cutting earmarks and instituting an across the board spending freeze.  This isn’t exactly a sacrifice that he is asking of all Americans, rather, it seems to a sacrifice that some Americans will deal with as a result of some of these freezes.  Further, earmarks are not always the answer.  Most Americans don’t even know what an earmark is.

8:31: Obama says that Americans are hungry for the type of leadership that will challenge them to sacrifice.  But don’t worry, he’s not going to issue that challenge.  Instead, he says that while he supports offshore drilling for oil, he also believes that Americans need to think of ways to cut back their energy use.  You know, things like weatherizing their houses or buying more efficient cars.  Uhm, this isn’t really a sacrifice.

8:36: Obama wants to respond to McCain’s answer about taxes.  But, Brokaw will not let him, he’s peeved.  And, somewhat understandably so.  The campaigns invest all kinds of time and energy into strict rules.  If the candidates wanted a more free form debate, they should have the courage to participate in a less structured debate.  But, neither of them, have demonstrated that courage so far, so now is a bad time to start whining about their own rules.

8:38: Next question: Would you give Congress a deadline to Reform Entitlements?  Both candidates really dodge the question about entitlements and instead talk more about taxes.  Oh well.  Part of me was secretly hoping that Al Gore would just scream out “lockbox!”

8:43: What would you do in the first two years on environmental issues?  McCain thinks we need to develop green technologies and alternative fuels, but he also thinks that nuclear energy is the answer.  Well shucks, that’s all we need to do is build a bunch of nuclear power plants?  That’s an awful lot of backyards that people aren’t going to want these facilities built in.

8:44: Obama hits McCain on voting against alternative fuels in the past.  Obama argues that we need to work with the private sector to develop alternatives.  There is a terrifying lack of specificity in both answers.

8:46: Brokaw scolds both candidates for violating time rules again.  He asks McCain if government should fund a Manhattan Project like program for alternative energy or invest in “100,000 garages” like was used in advancing computer technology.  It seems as though McCain supports the Manhattan like project, but his answer was somewhat incoherent.  McCain also practices talking to trick or treaters on Halloween when he jumps into a discussion about goodies and the energy bill that Obama voted for.

8:50: Should health care be treated as a commodity?  Obama: queue rhetoric on the importance of a unversal system of coverage.  McCain says that things need to be done to impose efficiencies, like putting health records online and having community health facilities.  McCain gets a little jittery..first points out the difference between him and Obama - that he believes government should give people choices, Obama doesn’t.  Notes how Obama wants to require mandates.  Then champions his $5,000 tax credit to purchase health insurance across state lines.

8:54: Follow up: Is healthcare a privilege, right or responsibility of the government?  McCain is not a huge fan of this question, he says that health care is a responsibility.  Goes on to talk about being wary of mandates.  Obama says that health care is a right.  Clarifies his position on mandates and explains why McCain’s plan will encourage employers to shop around for worse health care.  Overall, I think Obama may have won this point, at least in terms of how it was articulated.  McCain really needs to figure out a better way to talk about this issue.

8:59: Next question: How will the economy affect U.S. ability to achieve peace in the world?  McCain dodges the question completely.  Instead talks about how the U.S. is a force for good.  Adds that Obama doesn’t understand and now is not the time for on the job training.

9:01: Canned response alert!  Obama says that he doesn’t understand…he doesn’t understand how he ended up Iraq.  Some staffer, somewhere is really proud of himself.  Obama sort of dodges the question, he notes that the strained foreign policy and weakened economic and diplomatic positions have hindered our ability to act in some instances, like Darfur.

9:03: Brokaw followup: When would you use forces for humanitarian reasons when U.S. security is not at stake?  Obama acknowledges that forces does not necessarily mean combat troops, it could also include things like logistical support and no-fly zones.  He thinks that when there is a genocide, at least something should be done.  This is an enormously complicated subject that depends very much on the specifics of the situation, so Obama’s clumsy answer is somewhat forgivable.

9:05: McCain pounces on Obama’s position and Iraq.  Says that if we had listened to Obama, we would have left Iraq in defeat and not victory.  Says that we must never allow another holocaust to happen again, but that if we intervene, we can’t make it worse. Eh.

9:08: Next question: Should the U.S. pursue al-Qaeda inside Pakistan?  Short answer, Obama will go into Pakistan to pursue Bin Laden, even if the Pakistan government will not support the action.  McCain quotes Teddy Roosevelt, “speak softly and carry and big stick.”  Argues that Obama’s position does not help international relations nor does it help the Pakistani government.

9:13: After some more senseless haggling over whether or not to have a follow up, Obama challenges McCain’s position by citing the instances when McCain sang “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” or called for the anhiliation of N. Korea.  McCain says that Obama is telegraphing his positions, and that a president shouldn’t.

9:18: There’s a debate over strategy in Afghanistan.  Again, I simply refuse to blog this topic because both candidates are butchering the kind of discussion that this topic requires.

9:19: Next question: How can the U.S. pressure Russia on humanitarian issues? McCain says that he warned about Putin years ago, suggests that Russia is looking towards the Ukraine and that we must support Georgia.  Says that we need to make it clear that there are penalties for this kind of action.  Obama says that we can see challenges ahead of time, and notes that he saw the problem in Georgia coming back in April.  He doesn’t suggest how we to pressure Russia on this answer.

9:23: Is Russia, under Putin, an evil empire?  Obama says they do evil things.  McCain grins and says that it depends on how we respond, notes that if he says yes, it will reignite the cold war, if he says no then it doesn’t acknowledge their behavior.  Overall, McCain really shined during the discussion on Russia.  Obama’s first answer was a bit clumsy and didn’t didn’t address the question.

9:24: If Iran attacks Israel, would you send U.S. troops to respond?  McCain notes that there would be obstacles to Iran taking such an aggressive action from China and Russia. Then launches into a discussion about how we must prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  Finishes by saying that we cannot let another holocaust happen.  Obama starts off by also saying that we must prevent Iran from getting a nuclear device.  Adds in a confusing line about not giving the UN veto power against actions we believe our in our interest.  Obama says that military options must remain on the table, but we have to try diplomacy.

9:29: Last question: What don’t you know, and how will you learn it?  No, this isn’t the last question, the Israel one was.  Come on, this isn’t a question for a presidential debate.  There’s just no way to answer this question.  It’s like engaging in a zenos paradox thought experiment.  First off, if you don’t know it, how do you know you don’t know it?  Secondly, assuming you can know what you don’t know and you still don’t know it, then doesn’t that mean you flatly ignored learning something you should have known?  Oh well. [Update: John points out, that my zenos paradox quip ignored the better comparison, which was that there are known knowns and unknown unknowns.  I agree, this quip would have been better.]

9:30: Done.  We’ll be recording a post-debate podcast now, so be sure to check back a little later or take this opportunity to subscribe to our podcast.

11:00: Our post-debate podcast is now up, have a listen, if you like…

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Vice Presidential Debate Liveblog: Sarah Palin v. Joe Biden from Washington University in St. Louis

5:34: Let’s start off with the ridiculous Gwen Ifill controversy. Gwen Ifill, I would argue, is the second best moderator possible behind Lehrer. She’s the best choice to get the Meet the Press Chair. And Tim Russert, let’s not forget, was a Democratic operative before moving to the news side; few people would argue that his past work disqualified him from being a netural moderator. And yet, we have actual Republicans saying Ifill is in the tank. It’s mortifying. If Ifill looks biased, we’ll say so and a bunch of other people will say so. But just publishing a book about race relations after the rise of Obama’s campaign hardly is evidence that she’s going to do something untoward. 

By the way, the strangest part of that press release is where Orrin Hatch complains that Biden is … getting advice from Hillary Clinton. As if this is some sort of shocking or horrifying fact, that Senators get advice from each other.

5:45: Former Clinton operative Phil SInger previews the debate on his blog here and here. Essentially, the two previews sort of have it both ways: one good Palin performance could help save her, but also if any of the Couric-interview Palin shows up, there’s nothing but trouble on the horizon. I think both are true - for different people. As for undecided, I’m betting that if they are still undecided now, they’re unlikely to be persuaded by an uneven performance from either candidate.

5:51: The baseball playoffs are far more compelling than this debate. The Phillies-Brewers game is incredible - and only in the second inning. Shane Victorino grand slam!

5:55: In case you had wanted to know what the British Ambassador’s private thoughts on Obama, well, here you go.

6:00: Here’s Howard Wolfson on the stakes for the debate tonight:

The short answers: Gov. Palin needs to demonstrate a real understanding of complex issues. Simple talking points won’t cut it. She needs to make clear she grasps the difficult policy challenges that the next administration will confront.  if she doesn’t the debate will quickly turn into her own version of Thursday Night Live.

Sen. Biden’s burden is the opposite. We all know he understands the issues. Instead he has to connect with Americans, making the case against John
McCain without condescending to Gov. Palin and angering female voters.  (He will not, for instance, be calling her “Sarah”)

6:03: Good thing Obama and McCain will not be in the buiilding. We wouldn’t want to make anyone uncomfortable.

6:06: Mary Katherine Ham says Palin will be “free” tonight. She continues:

Conventional wisdom says low expectations will behoove Palin, just as a similar soft bigotry worked for Bush, but after several very shaky interviews, it may be that expectations are so low for Palin as to require resuscitation by way of a knowledgeable, confident performance. Passable alone probably won’t do for a slipping ticket, especially with media primed to highlight every mistake.

Expectations would seem to set the bar high for Biden, but everyone knows there’s only one thing Joe Biden does more than ride the Amtrak, and that’s say spectacularly stupid things. Given the slant of the media and his reputation for political pratfalls, I wouldn’t be surprised to see post-debate coverage congratulate him for getting through 90 minutes without referring to his running mate as “clean and articulate.”

I’m not sure a lack of freedom was her problem with Couric. It was more a lack of ability to command any sort of details. She’s a wonderful attack dog (or pitbull, as she referred to herself), but she hasn’t shown anything beyond that so far. Any time she spends being on the attack will just take away from time for her to make her case.

6:39: Sabathia doesn’t make it through 4 in Philly.

6:41: Lafayette at the fellow o8 Bloggers Network blog 2008 Presidential Election Blog previews the debate:

The expectations are super low for SP.  This favors her, big-time.  If she makes a barely passable showing, the story’ll be her come-from-behind triumph.  Or at least her supporters will think so; the media is another story.  Will they gang up on her?  I think so, but I also think they have to be sensitive to their clientele, and they don’t want to be seen picking on her.  So they’ll gladly make fun of whatever is awkward and unbecoming.  I really don’t see how SP can avoid the mockery she is about to get dumped on her.  However, if she’s poised, they vipers can’t unleash their venom, because they’d be picking on her.

And of course Biden does not want to be seen this way either!  But he won’t.  He’s too good of a politician to flub it up.  Democrats don’t have to worry–this one’s all on SP.  Biden will be fine, he’s done this numerous times.  He won’t mess it up.  But he can be fought to a draw by the ordinary gal Pal(in) if she’s passably articulate.

We see this as the opposite: nothing will happen tonight. That hasn’t stopped me from liveblogging, though.

6:45: Dyre Portents, another 08 Bloggers Network Blog, says the expectations will be hard for Biden to overcome:

I don’t think Biden can beat Palin in a popularity contest. He’s somehow going to have to either force Palin to stick to the issues or find a way to repeatedly politely point out that Palin isn’t actually answering the questions. Given his gaffe prone nature and his temperment he may not be up to that particular task.

Biden has a tough job in front of him, no matter how you see the debate.

6:48: Famous alumni of Washington University include Harold Ramis, better known as Egon from the Ghostbusters.

6:49: Washington University soda trivia: The founder of 7-up, Frank Gladney, graduated from Washington University.

6:54: Election Geek is another 08 Network blog.  They’re not convinced that Ifill is a fair moderator. 

7:21: Jennifer Granholm, Democrat governor of Michigan, discussed what it was like to portray Sarah Palin in practice debates with Biden, and what it is like to be a female politician.

7:24: Lindsay Graham and Joe Lieberman are in the house tonight. They’re talking with two other old white guys I cannot identify.

7:30: The parade of semi-important dignitaries has begun. We’re listening so you don’t have to.

7:35: The two old white guys aforementioned are former Republican senators Jack Danforth and Al Simpson.

7:39: Missouri soda trivia part II: Dr. Pepper was introduced at the World’s Fair in St. Louis in 1904.

7:42: The parade of self-important dignities is still talking about sponsors. Meanwhile, I just found out that a Frenchman fur trader named Auguste Chouteau claimed to found St. Louis, but there are doubts to the authenticity of the claim.

7:45: St. Louis is the location of the first debate in 1992 between Clinton, Bush, and Perot. It was also the site of the last debate between Gore and Bush in 2000. And also the second debate between Bush and Kerry in 2004. In other words, this is increasingly a popular site.

7:48: Gwen Ifill uses crutches to take her seat. “In case you were wondering, I fell, I wasn’t pushed.” The crowd is too stunned to react to that line, but it’s basically all she says. Jim Lehrer, comparatively gave a lecture the last time.

7:52: Let me take this opportunity to thank everyone for reading. I’ll try to add a bit more flavor than I did the last time.

7:57: Republicans are dreaming about how Palin can attack both Ifill and Obama in one swing.

7:59: Still 5-2 Phillies over the Brewers in the 8th. I’m guessing a lot of people in Milwaukee will be too upset after tonight’s game to watch any of this debate.

8:00: And away we go. Biden on the left, Palin on the right, which is certainly appropo.

8:03: Bailout bill question to Biden. Biden pivots immediately to criticizing the economic policies of the last 8 years, and then segues into Obama’s criteria for any bailout plan, and then into showing the importance of focus on the middle class. Good answer, if a bit rushed given that the answer is 90 seconds. Palin says the test of the economy should be asking parents at kids soccer games on Saturdays. She’s talking directly into the camera; Biden was looking at Ifill. Hits the same notes as Biden, before seguing into reform. She blames Biden and the Senate for not listening to McCain’s warning on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

8:06: How would you end the polarization in Washington? Biden talks about his experience and bipartisanship. Biden then goes back into criticizing Mccain for being out of touch. Palin says he was talking about the American work force. That’s just not persuasive. She talks about joining a team of mavericks, whereas Obama only votes along party lines. They awkwardly smile at each other while she criticized Biden.

8:09: Palin blames the deception of the predatory lenders for the housing meltdown. She’s going full-blown with the accent, now mentioning Joe Sixpack and Hockey moms banding together. This is going to be something the mainstream media can’t really talk about, but will be either be really persuasive or not persuasive. Biden criticizes McCain for not being on the vanguard of subprime problems, and for his focus on deregulation. Biden is showing a better command of facts, but it’s distracting that he’s only looking at Ifill. He finally ends that with a good story about a guy at a gas station not knowing how much it takes to fill a gas tank. Palin talks at length about Biden and Obama voting for higher taxes. She says “government will have to learn how to be more efficient.” Is there any more meaningless boilerplate possible? Biden goes directly at Palin, criticizing her answer and standard on raising taxes, and saying she did not talk about regulation. Palin answers, and gives an indirect swipe at Ifill, and talks about her record. She mentions the drug industry and tobacco industry when Ifill cuts her off.

8:15: Taxes question. Biden says their tax plan is about fairness. Biden says no one making under 250 k will have a tax raise, and everyone making under 150k will have a tax decrease. Criticizes McCain for tax breaks for corporations, and saying corporations will be taxed at the level they were under Reagan. Palin says that philosophy is a redistribution of wealth, and criticizes Biden for saying taxes are patriotic. Palin says it’s patriotic to say government is not always the answer. Ifill asks about the health care plan, and talks about a tax break for families, and criticizes Obama for wanting the federal government to “take over” health care. Interesting that Obama took so much heat for not including a mandate in the primary, and now is still having his plan called a mandate. Biden says it’s not redistribution, but just fairness. Biden says McCain’s plan will tax health care benefits as income, and calls it “the ultimate bridge to nowhere.” First one liner of the night, from Biden.

8:21: What promises can yo not keep? Biden says you have to slow down foreign assistance. Segues into a discussion of what you cannot slow down: energy jobs, education (which he calls the engine of the economy - he also called the middle class the engine), and a few others. Palin says that McCain is not duplicitous. Palin criticizes Obama for voting for the 05 Energy Bill, and talks about taking on the oil companies in Alaska. Palin makes a joke about not promising much in the five weeks she’s been VP. Biden is stuttering a bit tonight - hopefully not a relapse. Biden says that Palin supported a windfall profits tax in Alaska, but McCain will not. Interesting strategy by Biden.

8:26:Palin talks about “the corruption and greed” on Wall Street, which is a “toxic mess” requiring us to be “ever vigilant.” Is this a Presidential election or a preview of the next Batman movie? Biden dodges questions of a vote, and talks about Obama again being on the vanguard. He talks about bankruptcy courts being able to adjust terms of a mortgage. Biden is now almost always looking at the camera. Palin goes back to the 05 Energy Bill, and talks about energy indepedence, and blames “east coast politicians” for not allowing Alaska to drill; easy retort: even McCain is against drilling in ANWR. The level of irony here is off the charts.

8:30: Climate change question. Palin says she blames man and cyclical forces, but she does not want to argue about causes. Underlines the “all of the above” approach. She’s saying a lot of words, but not either attacking or building a good case. Biden says it’s man made, and if you don’t understand the cause, you can’t find a solution, but says the “cause is man-made; that’s the cause.” Biden talks about renewable energy, clean coal, and nuclear energy, and attacks McCain for not voting for renewable energy, while criticizing McCain for not exporting clean coal technology. Palin corrects Biden on the chant being “drill baby drill” and not “drill, drill, drill.” The rest of her answer is OK, but it drowns in the triteness of that. Biden eventually talks about the problem being carbon emissions.

8:36: Biden supports extending same-sex benefits to couples, and says there will be no distinction. Talks about visitation rights in hospital, joint ownership of property, etc. The property rights are not really that big a problem. Palin says she does not want to redefine marriage, but wants to be tolerant of choices of relationships. Do you support gay marriage? Biden says no, it’s a question of faith. and says that they agree on these civil rights. Palin sort of half-heartedly agrees that they agree.

8:39: Iraq time. Palin talks about the surge, and criticizes Obama for voting to cut off the troops. Mentions Biden criticizing Obama on that vote. Says we are down to pre-surge levels and should put more troops in Afghanistan. This format is going to save her. Biden talks about Obama’s plan being what Bush and Maliki are negotiating. Biden shifts to discussing a timeline, and says McCain also voted to cut off funds. Biden promises to end the war. Palin has a moment of silence, and then “your plan is a white flag of surrender.” Palin says we will know when victory is in sight. Petraeus has said there will not be victory in any conventional sense. Palin mentions Biden’s son, and then hits Biden for saying he’d be honored to run with McCain, and that Biden criticized Obama for not being ready to be C-in-C. Biden says that McCain voted against funding of MRAPS “that protect the governor’s son” and others in Iraq. This is getting a bit personal. Biden then gives a long list of issues on which McCain has been wrong on Iraq.

8:45: Biden talks about the work he’s done in Pakistan, and that any attack in America will come from the hills in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and that competing for the hearts and minds in that region is necessary. Palin says that both Iran and Afghanistan are dangerous, and that Petraeus says Iraq is the central front. She talks at length about how bad it would be if Iran got a nuclear weapon. This would be interesting if all four candidates didn’t agree on it. She then segues into criticizing Obama for willingness to meet with Castro, Ahmadinejad, and Kim Jong Il, who is apparently alive for the purposes of this debate.

8:49: Palin talks about needing to engage in diplomacy, but not at a presidential level, and says diplomacy is doing hard work with allies ready to back up. Biden says the theocracy controls nuclear weapons and security in Iran. Biden says the friends and allies have been the ones saying talk. Biden criticizes McCain for not being willing to talk with the government of Spain, even though they are fighting in Afghanistan.

8:51: Israel! Palin says the two state solution is the solution, and thanks Secy. Rice for working to bring the peace. Says we can never allow a second Holocaust. She then just repeats the talking points. She’s really excited to talk about Israel as a peaceful nation. Biden says that he’s been a friend to Israel and that he would not join the ticket if he thought Obama thought otherwise. He then criticizes the Bush administration policies re: Israel, mentioning Hamas in the west bank and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Biden says the only thing on the march is Iran. Palin is excited to agree that they both love Israel. Who was the last candidate on a major ticket who didn’t? This is ridiculous. Palin says that fingerpointing to the past means you cannot be change. Good lord. There’s no substance. This is purely a rhetorical answer. If you criticize Bush, you can’t be change? Biden is stunned: he wonders how McCain’s policy would be different from that of Bush.

8:56: Palin: Nuclear policy is the “be all end all.” She says using nuclear weapons as a deterrant is a safe usage. For anyone? Good lord. She goes back to Afghanistan, and says that she wants to bring the surge philosophy there, and that is what is different from Bush. Biden says the commanding general in Afghanistan says the surge principles in Iraq will not work in Afghanistan. Well, that settles that. Biden says we spend every three weeks in Iraq what we spend in Afghanistan. His style is undermining him a bit, but he’s way out-fact-checking Palin tonight. He complements Obama for working nuclear proliferation, and says McCain has been opposed. Palin says there are differences, but counter-insurgency principles could work, cites Gen. McClellan, specifically clearing, holding, rebuilding. Uhm, half the country is “clear” already. Biden is thrown off by Palin’s short answer. The General is apparently McKiernan.

9:01: Biden as an interventionist. He says his plan worked in Bosnia. Biden talks about being in camps in Chad, and that rallying the world to act in Darfur. Talks about it being a genocide. She criticizes Biden for being a Washington insider, who was for it before he was against it in Iraq, and that Biden supported McCain and opposed Obama. Palin talks about the importance of divestment in Darfur, but also notes that the legislation she proposed in Alaska has not passed yet. Biden says he never supported McCain’s strategy, and talks about his foresight on being locked down in Iraq. And we’re back into the same discussion. Palin insinuates that Biden is lying, and even refers to the factcheckers, who McCain embraces and ignores depending on their favorability to him. She says McCain will know how to win a war.

9:07: What if you had to become President? Would you follow your wishes or your running mates? Biden says it would be a national tragedy, but he would follow Obama’s wishes. Goes over a laundry list of Obama’s preferences. I’m interested in what Palin will say. Palin says that they are mavericks and will not disagree. Her cheerfulness is odd after Biden’s sobriety. She then tries to be solemn and says she will continue his good work, and talks about bringing reality from Wasilla main street. It’s just a hodge podge of talking points. At least Biden answered the question before he did the same. I still don’t know what her priorities would be if McCain died on issues they disagree on. Biden jumps in to respons and talks about a street in Wilmington, and that Bush and McCain don’t disagree enough. He gives a shout out to other places he used to live. Palin: “Say it ain’t so Joe.” Palin lists Biden’s wife accomplishments (seriously) and then talks about the importance of education. Says her brother is the best teacher, and that kids at his school get extra credit. A flurry of pluck, but nothing else. She says either one of them is top of the line in terms of education. She wants more attention on education. I wonder what she means by that.

9:13: Palin jokes about not knowing what a VP does. She’s happy the Constitution allows a powerful VP. I’m stunned with that line. In reality, though, the history of the Constitution has left a hodge podge of inconsistencies with the VP position. Biden immediately goes back and hits McCain on education. He says he’s going to be giving constant advice on decisions.

9:15: If the VP a member of which branch? Palin says the founding fathers allowed flexibility. Holy crap this is a terrible answer historically. The founding fathers made the LOSING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE the VP. It was only changed with the amendments, much later. Wow. Terrible, terrible answer. Biden says that Cheney was a terrible VP, and the VP is in the executive branch. He says the only time the VP has authority is a tie in the Senate, and it was a bizarre notion invented by Cheney.

9:18: What good is your experience? Palin says it’s not just her experience, but her connection to the heartland, with a son in the war and a special needs child. This is trite overload. No one that watches a debate for an hour and a half will be convinced by lines like this unless they want to be convinced by it. Talks about Reagan’s city on a hill analogy. Biden talks about writing the crime bill and the violence against women act, and then segues into talking about how his wife died, and other personal problems. He chokes up a bit when mentioning his children maybe not being able to make it. Palin talks about McCain being a maverick, and McCain being in a position of being a maverick, and then lists supporters, like Lieberman, Guiliani, and Romney. Really? Listing supporters, all but one are Republicans? That’s being a maverick? I vet Plouffe smiled at that one. Biden says that McCain is only a maverick on some issues, not the key ones, talking about voting for Bush’s budgets, and opposing health care and education and the war.

9:23: Did you have to change a position based on circumstances? Biden talks about the judicial nomination process. He touts his fight against Bork as showing that ideology matters. Palin says that she “quasi caved” in not vetoing budgets but did not do it because she did not have support. She says they work together up there in Alaska. She looks nervous to finish.

9:26: How do you change the tone in Washington? Biden says he’s worked across the aisle because he never questions the motives of those in the Senate he disagrees with, he just questions the judgment. Palin says that you appoint people regardless of their party affiliation. (Or whether the position is already filled? OK, no more troopergate references…) She talks about reigning in spending and creating jobs.

9:29: Final statement. Palin says that she likes the ability to speak to people without the filter of the mainstream media, as if it’s the filter that’s caused people to be astounded. Making excuses for bungling two interviews in your only debate appearance. She talks about fighting for freedoms, and quotes Reagan as that freedom is always at risk. Biden says this election is the most important election, and the past 8 years have been spent digging a hole. Biden talks about a couple of policy preferences, including protecting the troops.

Grades and thoughts on a podcast to come later tonight. No gaffes for Biden, and only minimally bad for Palin.

Chuck Todd: “You’re may not see this debate have a lot of effect It may just disappear, despite the hype.”

Who said that before hand? That’s right, us. Podcast to come.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (09/30/08)

This podcast offers a preview of the upcoming vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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VIDEO: Saturday Night Live - First Presidential Debate

Saturday Night Skit from September 27, 2008 that covers the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain…

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Arrested Development of TV Ratings: Debate Low Rated?

Interesting Development…

In the meter-market overnights, Friday night’s 90-minute debate in Mississippi received a preliminary household rating of 33.2, according to Nielsen Media Research.
That’s 16% lower than the national number from the 2004 debate, which aired on a Thursday — generally TV’s most-watched night of the week. Friday’s number is only slightly above George W. Bush and Al Gore’s first debate in 2000 and the Clinton-Dole debate in 1996.
The McCain-Obama rating represents 55 of the 56 largest TV viewing markets in the country and includes ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, PBS, CNN, Telemundo, TeleFutura, and BBCA.

A firmer sense of the debate’s popularity will be available Monday when Nielsen releases the national numbers — including total viewers — so the debate’s overall rank could shift. One media report is extrapolating that the rating equals 57 million viewers, but Nielsen will not confirm this. The St. Louis market had the largest debate audience, with a household rating of 52.1, while the Phoenix/Prescott market had the lowest rating, 24.8 (top markets here).

The first 1980 bout between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter still holds the record as the most-viewed televised presidential debate, with a 58.9 household rating and 80.6 million viewers.

This favors the status quo, and the status quo prior to the debate was a lead for Obama. This puts all the more pressure on Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. It’s marginally good news for McCain, though, in that he seemed to get better reviews fro mthe press than from viewers; seeing the debate through the media lens should help McCain somewhat.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (09/26/08)

This podcast offers commentary and analysis about the first presidential debate about the economy and foreign policy between Barack Obama and John McCain at the University of Mississippi.

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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First Presidential Election Debate Liveblog: From The University of Mississippi in Oxford

5:15: All times are Central. Deal with it, you coastal elites!

More on the University of Mississippi here. Fun fact: It was used as a hospital during the Civil War for both Union and Confederate soldiers. So there’s some bipartisanship. There’s no truth to the rumor that John McCain was there at that time, however. A must read about the civil rights history of the college is here. There’s no truth to the rumor that Barack Obama was the … uhm, named person in the headline there. Seriously, John McCain’s grandfather is one of the famous alumni of the college.

The moderator tonight is PBS’ Jim Lehrer. This is Lehrer’s record 11th time moderating a presidential debate, and his wiki page describes him as a bus enthusiast. So he’s got that going for him.

The format: two podiums. Sections of the debate will include introductory statements of two minutes, followed by five minutes of debate between the candidates. It’s a really nice format.

5:36: Mississippi is the state where Teddy Roosevelt refused to shoot a captured bear, enraging Stephen Colbert but capturing the heart of a nation. Nowadays, killing a moose is a qualification for national office. How times change!

5:53: Mississippi soda/pop fact: Mississippi is the birthplace of the Barq’s Root Beer. And also apparently the home of some very, very crazy ad wizards.

6:04: Ole Miss is in Oxford, in Lafayette County. In the county, Obama beat Clinton 2,849 to 2,171. John McCain won a virtually uncontested primary in the county with 1,953 votes (Huckabee received about 300 votes and Ron Paul less than 100 votes).

6:48: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is so concerned about the financial crisis that she’s talking on the House floor about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his denunciations of Israel. I understand that Presidents have to have multiple things in their crossfire, but you would think that wouldn’t apply to the House. Especially in the middle of a crisis.

7:04: In the audience: a lot of students and the Washington elite.

7:11: Nate Silver has a good debate preview up.

7:14: Matt Yglesias asks if the debate itself will be in HD. It’s a good question. Angelo believes it will be. Confirmation: here.

7:17: A C-Span history of debates.

7:18: C-Span’s debate hub is awesome.

7:19: The largest airport in Mississippi, in Jackson, was renamed the Jackson-Evers International Airport to honor assassinated NAACP leader Medgar Evers.

7:23: Marc Ambinder’s preview is also worth reading.

7:27:This week in 1963: JFK becomes the first president to sleep overnight in Duluth. Thanks, PBS.

7:29: Listening to C-Span calls before a debate is excruciating. Supporters of either side are just grating.

7:31: Janet Brown, Executive Director of the Commission on Presidential Debates, starts off the speeches that are very unimportant, and meant only to stoke the egos of those who give them.

7:37: Frank Fahrenkopf chastises the crowd to not applaud or make any noise.

7:42: Should I be concerned that there’s been multiple listings of corporate sponsors? Or is that too 3rd party-sh of me?

7:43: THe University lost power because of an accident with an immigration line earlier today.

7:50: Michelle Obama is in the house.

7:51: Jim Lehrer is on the stage. He talks down to people who “volunteered or participated” in the primary debates. Let’s hope Hillary isn’t watching. He talks about needing “absolute concentration” and asks Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama to take names of whoever makes sound.

8:00: And away we go! Tom Brokaw says the “Reagan Democrat” is the voter both are courting. Jim Lehrer says he has not cleared his questions with anyone. Both candidates arive to the only applause of the night.

8:03: First question: Eisenhower talks about economic strength being the basis for military strength. Where do you stand on the economic recovery plan? Obama goes first. Talks about Main Street, and how his proposals protect the taxpayer. His four point plan: oversight, the possibility of getting the money back (equity), executive pay, and help to homeowners. Segues into a criticism of Republican financial policy, including deregulation, and including the phrase “trickle down.” McCain references Kennedy (who has since been released from the hospital, per Politico). McCain is talking to Lehrer, while Obama was addressing the American people. Odd distinction. He talks at length about the bipartisanship in Congress, and mentions accountability, options for loans, and “a number of other essential elements.” He then seems to try to side with House Republicans, who want something wholly different. He ends up with a reference to foreign oil. Obama mentions that “we haven’t seen the language yet” which is head scratching. Of course, Lehrer is referring to a plan that is being negotiated as we speak. I think he’s pressing a bit in the wrong direction. The key is what they think should be done, not really what they think about some abstract plan that no longer exists. Obama addressed that answer to Lehrer. McCain tells a story about Eisenhower and Normandy, and his willingness to resign if D-Day failed. He implies that Chris Cox should resign because he failed - but doesn’t say why. Obama says there must responsibility not just when there is a crisis, and talks about the problems before the crisis erupted last week. Funny moment: Obama refers to McCain saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong, and Lehrer makes him say it directly to McCain, who jokes that he could hear Obama the first time. McCain’s response: “We have fundamental problems in the system.” It’s pretty ridiculous, given his comments about the fundamentals of the economy. He finishes with an ode to the American worker that Lenin could have written. Time spent talking on this: directly even. To the second.

8:14: Second question: what differences to you have on the economy: McCain wants spending under control. Talks about earmarking as a gateway drug. The joke about bear DNA doesn’t get any laugh. He holds up a pen to veto and says “this one is kinda old.” He’s making the old person jokes himself. Yeesh. McCain criticizes Obama for making earmarks. Obama agrees that earmarks are abused, and often by lobbyists. Obama says earmarks cost 18 billion, but McCain is proposing 300 billion dollars worth of tax cuts to the rich. Obama is working overload to relate to the common man. McCain goes on again about the earmarks and the 18 billion dollars, and criticizes them for corrupting people. He mentions Obama’s 800 billion of new spending. Obama talks about his plans: closing corporate “loopholes,” health care spending, etc. Obama again says earmarks alone will not get the middle class “back on track.” McCain talks about the business tax being the second highest in the world, to get more businesses in America. He goes back to earmarks AGAIN, and he’s getting a little silly on the point. He talks about the tax cuts he wants to give everyone. Fact check: earmarks are only 0.63% of the federal budget. Obama talks about his tax cuts, and criticizes McCain for making health care benefits taxable. McCain jumps in, and criticizes Obama for … his vote on the Energy Bill. McCain only wants to talk about earmarks. I’m at a bit of a loss. Obama mentions the tax breaks, and criticizes mcCain for opposing the Energy Bill right now for the position on eliminating tax breaks for oil company.

8:26: Third question: what would you give up to pay for this recovery plan: Obama says it’s hard to say, but some things will have to be delayed. Talks about needing to get energy indepdence in ten years. That’s very, very optimistic. Also mentions health care, and deductibles going up 30%. Also mentions competing globally, specifically in education. Also mentions infrastructure, including roads and the energy grid. A certain viewer near Albany, NY likes the road shout out. McCain talks about needing to cut spending, criticizing Obama for having the most liberal record. McCain wants to end ethanol spending, and better bids for contracts for the military. McCain talks about knowing how to get defense spending under control. Lehrer wants to know what will delayed specifically. Obama talks about postponing parts of his energy plan, and 15 billion lost through Medicare. Mentions working with Tom Coburn setting up “Google for Government.” McCain wants a spending freeze on everything but Defense, Veterans, and “other important” areas. Obama says you need a scalpel, not a hatchet, mentioning the 79 billion dollar surplus of the Iraqi government. McCain wants 45 nuclear power plants, and gives an awkward climate change shout out to Sen. Clinton. Lehrer doesn’t like these answers, and tries again. Obama segues into a discussion about values, and talks about corporate tax cuts versus health care. McCain does not want health care handed to the federal government, and gives a variation on the Harry and Louise schtick. McCain goes back to spending, and talks about owing China $500 billion. That’s true, but not really the root of the problem as he implies. Obama refers to the “orgy of spending” under Bush and criticizes McCain for voting for Bush’s budgets.

8:38: What are the lessons of Iraq? McCain: You caannot have a failed strategy that causes you to lose. A little broad to me. Bad strategy is as old as warfare itself. McCain hugs the surge as much as he possibly could. Talks about “winning” in Iraq and “coming home with victory and honor.” This is about 100 degrees difference away from what Petraeus describes. HD update: Apparently they both look weird in HD. Obama talks about opposing the war from the start, and tells the same story about taking an unpopular position as McCain. Obama talks about being distracted from Afghanistan and Al Qaeda being resurgent. McCain talks about Obama saying that the surge failed, not going to Iraq, and not holding hearings on his subcommittee. Obama looks amused, and restates Biden saying that those things are held at full committee. Obama gives his own McCain quotes, including greeted as liberators and history between Shia and Sunni, leading it into a question of judgment. McCain says Obama does not understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. McCain says Obama refuses to believe we are winning. He describes a strategy that sounds a whole lot like a tactic. It’s a strange distinction. McCain talks about Obama not funding the troops. Obama knocks it down quite easily, actually, saying that McCain and him both voted against bills for other reasons, and talks about at length about Afghanistan. McCain talks more about the surge and Petraeus, and says he knew the surge would succeed this much.

8:50: Should more troops be sent to Afghanistan? Obama: Send more troops ASAP, as per the commanders in the ground. Obama goes back to Afghanistan and says it cannot be separated. No mention of Pakistan thus far, except implicitly mentioning Al Qaeda “crossing the border.” Finally mentions Pakistan. Three points: More troops, deal with the poppy trade, and dealing with Pakistan. McCain talks about the Russians leaving and the rise of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. McCain says he is not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan, and criticizes Obama for launching strikes, or rather, for saying it out loud - effectively admitting he would do the same thing but not say it out loud. He talks about Waziristan. McCain wants the Iraq strategy. But Iraq is urban warfare; Waziristan is remotte tribes. Building walls is pointless when there’s already mountains in between people. a WSJ article a long while ago made this point. (A GOP one I linked to before). Obama says it’s about having intelligence regarding Al Qaeda, and taking them out, and that McCain has made comments regarding extinghuishing AL Qaeda and singing songs about bombing Iran. Obama says that Musharraf was coddled and the policy was anti-democratic. McCain says there was a failed state when Musharraf came to power. McCain tries to defend his temperament, and defends himself by voting against troops going to Lebanon; supporting the Gulf War and going into Bosnia and Kosovo; he wanted the troops in Somalia to apparently do more “peace making force.” But the criticism was regarding his words, both originally from McCain and rebuttal from Obama. This is just a tangent regarding his record. He says if Iraq does not succeed, then lives are wasted; the logical implication is that the deaths in Vietnam and Somalia were in vain. Obama says no soldiers die in vain, and all service should be honored, but the question is regarding how to keep America safe. He criticizes McCain for saying America could “muddle through” Afghanistan. McCain criticizes Obama for not going to Afghanistan and not holding hearings again.

Discipline: McCain has oddly times smiles, as usual, but is otherwise OK. Obama seems pretty OK. No sighs so far. Lehrer says time is even.

8:50: What is the threat from Iran? McCain says there they propose an existential threat to Israel, and that there can never again be a Holocaust. McCain says a League of Democracies could take effective sanctions, mentioning the Germans, French, and British. He also mentions Iran infiltrating Iraq. Obama says the Republican Guard is a terrorist organization (and says he always said that) and said that the war in Iraq has strengthened Iran’s hand. Agrees that a nuclear Iran cannot be tolerated, both for Israel and to prevent an arms race in the Middle East. Obama says cooperation from states like Russia and China will be needed for sanctions to be effective. He talks about diplomacy. He says that efforts at isolation only accelerate efforts to get nuclear weapons. McCain talks about Ahmadinejad wanting to wipe Israel out, and not wanting to give him a propaganda platform. McCain talks about needing preconditions being necessary, citing Reagan and Nixon. Obama says even Kissinger wants America to meet with Iran. He cites Bush sending Bill Burns to talks with Iran, and admitting it may not work. Obama says that after cutting off talks with North Korea, nuclear work was quadrupled, and nuclear secrets were sent to Syria, and through talks progress was made, even if it is on shaky ground. He even mentions McCain not wanting to meet with the President of Spain. McCain says he will not set a visitor’s schedule. McCain says that without precondition, meeting with Ahmadinejad legitimizes comments about Israel. Obama pushes back on Israel, but McCain interrupts, and makes a joke about Obama not denying the words of Ahmadinejad.

9:16: Russia! What do you do, what -DO- you do? Obama says the relationship needs to be reevaluated, but that the actions in Georgia were unwarrented, and that the six point peace plan needs to be implemented. Talks abot needing to be supportive of fledging democracies, and expanding NATO to countries like Georgia. Also talks about expanding cooperation, specifically with loose nukes. McCain tries to hammer home that Obama doesn’t understand foreign relations, saying Obama’s first statement only called for restraint on both sides. McCain says he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw KGB. Not sure about that one. Talks about concern over resurgence of the Russian Empire. Says that Russia is in violation of the cease fire agreement. Obama tries to give a better framing of his position on Georgia, but widely agrees with McCain. Mentions the Georgian economy. He talks about how he warned about Russian peacekeepers in Georgia in April, but nothing was done. Obama says that an energy strategy is necessary to deal with not only Russia but also Venezuela and Iran. Mentions energy, including nuclear, wind, and clean coal. Talks about McCain voting against renewable energy. McCain also talks about Nunn-Lugar. Obama says that he’s just for storing nuclear waste carefully. He wants to make another point, but McCain talks over him and I can’t tell what either said.

9:25: What is the likelihood of another 9/11? McCain says it is much less than it was on 9/12. He mentions that he and Lieberman wanted to start the 9/11 Commission. He seems to be making the Richardson approach: that he personally knows a lot of things and can get things done because he knows how to do it. It’s not what he did in the primary. Obama says America is safer in some ways. He talks about chemical sites, ports, and transit. He circle back to nuclear proliferation and says it is the biggest threat to the United States. Says missile defense is necessary, but it is not more important than nuclear waste. Says Al Qaeda is operating in 60 countries, and the root cause is in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Says America’s standing in the world has been damaged, and work is needed to restore the standing as a city on a hill. McCain cites Reagan and missile defense, for some reason. He goes back to Obama “not understanding” and says if there is failure in Iraq, Al Qaeda will have a base there. Obama goes back to McCain and Bush focusing on Iraq, while Bin Laden is still out there, while seguing to Chin being involved around the world everywhere where America is not, and the ability to project power of America is hurt. Segues into a discussion of veterans, and that a broader strategic vision is necessary. McCain says that Obama does not have the experience of knowledge necessary to be president. He compares Obama’s stubbornness to that of Bush, and says Obama not admitting the surge succeeded is really bad. Obama mentions his father coming from Kenya, and wanting to come to America because of the standing of America in the world, and that this idea is important, and investing ni how ordinary people live out their dreams is important. McCain one ups that by talking about coming home from prison and normalizing relations with Vietnam.

That ends the debate. I’m going to ponder grades, but Lehrer gets an easy A. Well done.

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VIDEO: Presidential Debate Between Barack Obama and John McCain at the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss)

Tonight’s debate between John McCain and Barack Obama will begin at 9pm ET. The moderator will be PBS’ Jim Leher. The topic will be foreign policy (although, they will likely spend some time discussing the economy as well). Be sure to check out our blog on the debate or listen to our podcast as well…

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (09/24/08)

This podcast discusses the proposed legislation to bailout Wall Street, McCain suspending his campaign to return to Washington and his call to postpone this Friday’s debate, a debate preview and a discussion of foreign policy issues (both obvious and not so obvious), and more…

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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The Real Problem With ABC’s Debate

There’s a back and forth going on regarding the last debate on ABC News. I think both sides are partially right and both are partially wrong. The accusatory tones going back and forth are not helping, either.

The complainers main argument seems to be that actual substance took a backseat. The supporters note that these kinds of issues are important to voters too. Both of those points have merit, but don’t implicate the ideas of people they are arguing against.

In debate, these types of arguments are commonly referred to as ships passing in the night. While one or both have legitimate points, neither address the points of the other.

In this instance, the bickering and biases of both sides prevent reasonable type solutions.

To wit: Those types of non-issues are important for voters. That’s why it didn’t matter what Al Sharpton’s health care policy was 4 years ago. Or what Gary Bauer’s position on the future of NATO was 8 years ago. Or what virtually any of Ralph Nader’s positions ever are. There’s a certain sense of respect that Americans require of the President (this is different from the commander in chief argument). Angelo and I have been discussing it, and he mentioned that it may be a result of the President being both the head of state and head of government. The office is beyond issues. That’s why you can read the 2000 election as to some extent a rejection of the Bill Clinton’s time in office. (While Gore won the popular vote, it was not by the margin one would have expected if you disregard impeachment, Monica, etc. Liberals hate to admit this.)

On the other hand, there’s virtually no reason for both candidates to weigh in on these issues. It does not matter what Sen. Clinton thinks of Wright or the comments in San Francisco, and it does not matter what Sen. Obama thinks of the Bosnia story. These questions need to be asked one on one in a live format. The proper place would be somewhere like Meet the Press, but Russert has recently gone off the deep end looking for gotcha questions instead of just exploring these controversial issues.

Point being, that when people complain about a debate being a waste, it’s not just because these issues came up necessarilly. The questions deserved answers. But that’s not what a debate is for. Listen to the NPR debate or the Des Moines Register Debate, or even most of the last ABC Debate. When a debate turns into a discussion of the issues, it raises up all the candidates and the country as a whole.

There’s been over discussion of some issues in this campaign (health care mandates, for one) and under discussion of a whole lot of crucial other ones. (Republicans have barely talked about health care while Democrats could have held a symposium on it. Democrats have barely gotten into climate change except to all try to outdo each other in praise for Al Gore.)

Some might say: What if candidates duck appearances to avoid that type of questioning? Then ask them about that; the opposition candidate surely can comment on a candidate refusing to engage in a discussion like that. But the throws to Obama and Clinton to comment on the missteps of the other are just very awkward and unnecessary.

Now that primary debates are apparently finished, it’s appropriate to look back and realize what could have been and what could be. Let’s have more discourse next time while leaving the other questions for a better forum. The chance of that happening? Well, I’m not holding my breath.

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