Al Gore Endorses Barack Obama

This evening, Al Gore will be endorsing Barack Obama at a rally in Detroit, Michigan (read the full Obama press release here).  Now that the primary contest is over, the significance of Gore’s endorsement is different than it would have been had he offered it a few months ago; it’s mainly for the benefit of party unity at this point.

I don’t think Gore’s endorsement will sway undecideds or independents as much as some others do.  Rather, the impact of this endorsement is financial.  Gore has asked visitors to AlGore.com to donate to Barack Obama.  This new financial pool comes at the same time that Hillary Clinton prepares to push her top fundraisers into Obama’s quarter.  It’ll be interesting to see how Obama’s June fundraising figures before this endorsement and HRC’s help compare with rest of the month.

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Morning Briefing (April 9, 2008)

What’s news today…

• Mark Penn’s new role is clarified.  Despite all the hullabaloo, it’s clear that Penn will not play as influential a role as he was or what many still think he will.
• Sizzle: TNR scolds Obama for dismissing Clinton and McCain’s foreign policy experience as well as for  using his personal experience living abroad as a child to buttress his foreign policy credentials.
• An excellent look inside McCain’s campaign.  Is this what a McCain administration will look like?
• In our last podcast, we discussed Obama’s reversal on public financing and its political implications.  Coincidentally, it seems that Obama is preparing his justification for not opting into the public finance system should he become the nominee by contending, “We have created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it, and they will have as much access and influence over the course and direction of our campaign that has traditionally been reserved for the wealthy and the powerful.”
• Why?  Howard Dean criticizes McCain and calls him “not a strong candidate.”  Somewhat ironically, one of the reasons he suggested McCain is a weak candidate is because “he is out of touch with the American people.”  To me, it certainly seems out of touch to suggest that McCain is a weak candidate.  I recognize that as Chairman, Dean has to support his party, but it seems that recognizing reality is often the fastest way to earn credibility.  Recognizing McCain’s strength is not mutually exclusive with opposing him.
• Bill Clinton’s recent trip to Puerto Rico could have gone better.  A report: While Clinton was giving a speech, in English:Nobody interpreted, and only a handful of audience members seemed to understand him. The crowd — raucous and dancing a few minutes earlier — remained mostly silent during the 10-minute speech. Some people left. Others chatted on their cellphones. ‘What is he saying? Do we clap now?’ asked Jerry Nieves Rosario, a college student who speaks only Spanish.
• Inform yourself: This roundup of Iran nuclear related news is useful.
• Can we just stop with the ‘calls to Al Gore‘ for the time being?  Honestly, who throws a shoe?
• A Democratic debate on Science?  Maybe, it’s still very early in the planning stage.  I like the idea, that’s for sure.

 

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Gore Will NOT Endorse Before Super Tuesday…Did You Catch That Drudge?

Aided by the oft sensationalist Drudge Report, Josh Green’s recent piece in The Atlantic, which speculates that Al Gore will endorse Obama soon (read: before Super Tuesday) has gotten way more attention than it deserves. Green concludes:

Gore has already seen one presidency (his own) slip away over a handful of votes. He must have pondered how it would feel to play kingmaker and shore up someone else’s path to the White House.

A well-connected Tennesseean told me two things today that got me thinking about this. The first is that Obama and Gore have been speaking regularly, about every two weeks or so. The second is that, despite this, and despite Tennessee’s primary on Tuesday, Obama has not visited the state since June. It may be simply that he does not plan on competing there. Or it may be that he’s been waiting for a special occasion.

When I first read this, I didn’t really buy it. Why? Several reasons, among them was my awareness of the fact that John Edwards also stayed in contact with Gore throughout the primary. Accordingly, the fact that Obama and Gore speak doesn’t mean anything more than Obama and Gore speak. Ambinder aware of same Edwards/Gore chats clarifies Green’s position, but not before Andrew Sullivan advanced the needless speculation. Now, don’t get me wrong, I think there are plenty of reasons to support the notion that Gore would endorse Obama over Clinton; however, Green’s article is definitely not one of them.

Fortunately, TPM set the record straight:

I checked in with a source close to Gore for a response to the piece. Asked if there was any shot at a pre-Feb. 5th endorsement, the source said: “He has no plans to endorse in the near term.”

So yea, don’t expect Gore’s endorsement before Super Tuesday. And if you were tricked into believing this by a Drudge headline, then you should be aware that I have a time machine, bridge and magic beans for sale.

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Barack Obama Indicates Gore Will Have Senior Position In His Administration, Promises To Get Tough With Republicans

If you’ve been dreaming of an Obama-Gore ticket, you can wake up now. Barack Obama responded to the inquiry by saying:

“I can promise you that as president I will have him involved in our administration in a very senior capacity in his role…having won the Nobel peach prize and an Oscar that being Vice President again would be probably a step down for him.”

Obama tried to help his electability cause by also bringing up the Republicans, noting that despite the strong attacks they will likely launch against him, he will respond immediately, forcefully and truthfully. Obama quipped:

“I played basketball and I’m skinny but the people I play with will tell you I don’t mind going down low and throwing elbows.”

As discussed in this week’s podcast, politically, Obama needs to continue his offensive against Republican counterparts in order to draw their fire to reduce the inevitability perception of Hillary Clinton and also to demonstrate his general election skills. One of Clinton’s strengths as a candidate is that Democrats believe she is best capable of handling the harsh attacks that are likely to come in the general election.

If Obama hopes to get anywhere in the coming months, he’s going to need to escalate his criticism of Republican rivals. This is not mutually exclusive with his “politics of hope.” He doesn’t need to resort to pointless or erroneous criticisms, he could use this as an opportunity to take on his rivals substantively and serve as an exemplar for the new kind of politics he promises to bring if elected. I’m not entirely sure that’s going to happen though, given his recent remarks about not paying much attention to Mitt Romney. Although, I do think the Obama campaign handled Romney’s recent Obama-Osama gaffe well, something about the ‘I don’t pay much attention’ line irritates me (which many candidates use). Part of the problem with the current state of politics is that simply pretending the other side doesn’t exist seems needlessly anti-intellectual. But I digress…

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/14/07)

This week’s podcast covers: 1) Gore gets the nobel peace prize and what it means for presidential politics; 2) Republicans debate economic issues, Fred Thompson gets shut out of the campaign by Giuliani and Romney, McCain campaign still has some life left in it; 3) Barack Obama makes waves in Iowa, most Democrats pull out of the Michigan primary, Edwards and Richardson in Nevada; and more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Poll Vaulting: A Look at Michigan

Now that the Michigan Senate gave the go-ahead to have the primary on Jan. 15, the bill has to be reconciled with the State House bill that passed before Gov. Granholm signs it. It’s important to note that the bill would not only move the primary up, but it would change the primary from a caucus to an actual primary election. Marc Ambinder has a great post up on what that means:

Party-run caucuses — or “Firehouse primaries,” as they’re called, are enormously beneficial to the state party because they serve as a dress rehearsal for election day get-out-the-vote activities and provide an easy way for the party to enhance its voter lists. They’re also easy to control — and party interest groups, like Michigan’s extremely powerful United Auto Workers union, tend to exert an outsized influence on the outcome. It comes as no surprise that UAW, a union which is said to be on the verge of endorsing Sen. John Edwards, also opposes a state-run primary. (The State Dems, per published reports, are waiting to see what the bill says before they react. The State Republicans are on board with Granholm and the legislature.)

On the other side of this equation is Gov. Granholm, who Edwards factions in the state believe is acting at the beheast of Sen. Hillary Clinton. The theory is that it would be much easier for Clinton to win a primary beauty contest than a caucus, which would require organization — read: labor, read: the UAW. (Actually, labor power in Michigan is concentrated in the UAW and in the National Education Association, which probably won’t endorse.)

The caucus to primary shift, plus the heavy concentration of unions in the state, makes polls fairly useless on the Democratic side. Adding to that fact is that there has only been two polls done in Michigan since May, and in the most recent poll, non-candidate Al Gore actually received the most support. Otherwise, it appears that Clinton has a safe lead on Obama and Edwards, but with a large black vote and a large union vote, both Obama and Edwards could make up ground if the election starts getting more attention in the state.

The Republican polls will probably be slightly more representative, as there are no unions to mass organize or holding a key endorsement as of right now in the state. But a look at the Michigan polls shows essentially a four way race between Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John McCain in the two polls since May, with Newt Gingrich registering significant support in one of the polls.

To cut to the chase, Michigan appears to be wide open right now in both parties. The only person who can even be called a slight favorite in the polls is Hillary Clinton, and even she falls behind Gore when Gore is included.

Republican candidates have little to fear by campaigning in Michigan, but Democrats risk the ire of the DNC, which under Howard Dean is trying to strong-arm states into having the primary schedule that they want. A candidate has a lot to gain and a lot to lose if they start campaigning in Michigan: it’s a state ready to be wooed.

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Blog Buzz Watch (July 30 - August 5, 2007)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 5:30 PM 07/30/07 through 5:30PM 08/05/07…

Democrats

 

Republicans

 

 

Head To Head

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It’s Live Earth Day

Unless Live Earth is not your thing, that is. In which case, it’s stil the weekend; enjoy the music and mute the message.

Anyways, Al Gore just introduced Keith Urban and Alicia Keys, who are doing a cover of ‘Gimme Shelter’ and music; Gore seems more happy doing this than he ever seemed campaigning.

Here are statements of candidates on Live Earth:

Barack Obama

Obama has a whole page dedicated to Live Earth with a videotaped message as well as an email sign up.

The organizers of Live Earth should be proud of their achievement. 7.7.07 is likely to be one of the most significant days of action in the campaign against global climate change. It could not come at a more important time.

Our dependence on fuels such as oil and coal is jeopardizing our planet, setting off a chain of dangerous weather patterns that could condemn future generations to global catastrophe. We see the effects of global climate change in our communities and around the world in record drought, famine, and forest fires. Hurricanes and typhoons are growing in intensity, and rapidly melting ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland could raise global sea levels high enough to swallow up large portions of every coastal city and town.

Despite the urgency, there are those who believe America cannot come together to find a solution. Politicians are afraid to ask the oil, auto, and electricity industries to do their part, and those industries hire armies of lobbyists to make sure it stays that way.

We can do better. As President, I will move to limit the causes of global warming by requiring that all transportation fuels sold in the U.S. contain 10 percent less carbon by 2020. We can decrease oil consumption by increasing fuel economy standards to save half a trillion gallons of gasoline by 2028. These are the types of changes that we’ll have to make if we’re serious about limiting the effects of global warming.

Chris Dodd

“As artists, musicians and leaders around the globe rally against climate change this Saturday, we are reminded that we must do more to turn back the clock on global warming. Al Gore’s commitment to raising awareness of environmental issues is extraordinary, and I commend him for his work in this area.

“Global climate change is a serious threat to our society and our way of life. That is why we must act boldly. Each of us has a role to play and I am proud my campaign is doing its part by going carbon neutral, and by raising awareness of this issue with television ads. As President, I would enact a Corporate Carbon Tax to help reverse the damage of global warming and end our dependence on Middle East oil by 2015 by imposing strict 50 miles per gallon standards for automobiles.

“Our dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels is one of our biggest problems - a problem that impacts our health, our environment, our national security, and our competitiveness. But breaking that dependence is our single greatest opportunity - for a brighter, greener, healthier, more prosperous and secure future.”

Hillary Clinton:

“The scientific consensus is clear and overwhelming: we are causing the planet to warm, with potentially devastating consequences to ourselves and our children. We need to take immediate steps to address this problem, and I applaud everyone who is participating in Live Earth for demanding action.

“The United States must reassert leadership and I believe we should reengage the world community to solve this problem. By putting the right incentives in place, we will drive American businesses to innovate, creating new products and new jobs. Failing to act is the riskier course to both our environment and our economy.

“I have proposed a Strategic Energy Fund to eliminate oil company subsidies, and use the proceeds to invest $50 billion in research, development, and deployment of clean energy technologies, such as wind and solar, energy efficiency, and ethanol and other homegrown biofuels. I support a national cap and trade program to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent in the coming decades, which will help us to avoid the most harmful impacts of global warming.

“I have also called for a dramatic increase in renewable energy by requiring utilities generate 20 percent of our electricity from renewable sources by 2020, and I have proposed an ambitious plan to make all federal buildings carbon neutral by the year 2030. Buildings account for 40 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and the federal government owns or leases more than 500,000.

“I have also made my campaign carbon neutral by offsetting all carbon emissions produced by the campaign during travel, at the headquarters and in all state offices.

“As people gather around the globe for Live Earth, they draw attention to the clear choice that we face. It is past time for us to act. If we do it right, we can transform this grave environmental challenge into an opportunity to establish the United States as a clean energy leader.”

John Edwards

Edwards also has a whole page dedicated to Live Earth, with an email sign up for the Live Earth pledge. He also discusses Live Earth in a podcast. He republished the text of the podcast, which I will excerpt below. The full text is here.

“Let me say first thank you to everyone for joining me in this conversation. This is a really historic week in the worldwide movement to do something about global warming, to stop it. This Saturday, 2 billion people on seven continents will come together for the 24-hour Live Earth concerts, series of those around the world, that have been organized by Al Gore and Kevin Wall. Here in the U.S. , members of MoveOn are going to host thousands of house parties to watch the concert and take action to deal with this issue.

“This is more evidence of an idea I believe in very strongly, which is that the true power in this country is not just in the Oval Office, it’s in the American people. And those people will gather in living rooms, town centers and communities for no more important task than saving the world.

“I’m not surprised that regular people are leading while Washington goes slowly and stalls, because we all know that Washington has been dominated by special interests, and they keep getting richer while the climate keeps heating up. Normal people are leading because the supposed leader of the free world is not leading—but I want to assure all of you that when I’m president, they will have a leader who is up to this task.

I expected more statements, but apparently this is it….

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Al Gore’s Son Arrested On Suspicion Of Drug Possession After Being Pulled Over For Speeding

Al Gore III, the son of former Vice-President Al Gore was arrested earlier today (7/4/07) on suspicion of drug possession. After being pulled over for speeding in excess of 100MPH, police found marijuana, Valium, Xanax, Vicodin and Adderall in his car, a Toyota Prius (hybrid vehicle). Gore III is said to be receiving no special privileges.

Of note, the Drudge Report claims that Gore III was also arrested for driving under the influence (DUI), however, I have not been able to find any information to back that up. Yet another example of the necessity to verify news that you read.

Given the fact that Gore isn’t a candidate, I can’t imagine this having much of an adverse effect on his political life. Should he decided to join the race, this issue will presumably be dead by then. In short, I don’t foresee any tangible political ramifications for Gore.

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Blog Buzz Watch (06/17/07-06/23/07)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 1:30 PM 06/17/07 through 1:30PM 06/23/07…

Democrats

 

 Republicans

 

Head To Head

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Poll Vaulting: Clinton Rises And McCain Slides In Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll

Results from most recent USA Today/Gallup national poll (June 11-14, 2007):

My thoughts…

• In order to get accurate results, USA Today/Gallup really needs to leave Al Gore out of the equation. He’s polling at 18%, which demonstrates the strong support he still has; however, he’s not running, so although it’s interesting it sort of poisons the results a little bit. Who knows how that 18% would end up being dispersed…
• Hillary Clinton is at least gaining back some ground that she lost to Barack Obama, but it really doesn’t matter that much. First, she’s nowhere near where she was in February, when she had a 30 point lead over Obama. Thus, at the very least, Obama’s been successful at removing the inevitability factor. Secondly, in a few weeks the second quarter fundraising numbers will be released. Depending on how the numbers turn out, Hillary Clinton could drop back quite a bit. Third, I can’t help but think that her recent surge is partly the result of her strong performance in the Democratic debate on CNN earlier this month.
• Rudy Giuliani’s strategy in dealing with the abortion issue appears to be working (at least for now); so far there haven’t been any significant drop offs for him, even with the emergence of Fred Thompson as a candidate. I wonder how much pressure he’ll be able to handle on this issue though as Pro-Life organizations continue to turn up the heat on this issue…
• I recognize that McCain dropped back even more as Fred Thompson enters the race, but be careful not to count him out just yet…although the political climate and the numbers just aren’t looking good for him at the moment.

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Blog Buzz Watch (06/04/07-06/10/07)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 11:45 AM 06/04/07 through 11:45 AM 06/10/07…

Democrats

 

Republicans

 

 

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2008 Central’s Presidential Election Podcast (5/27/07)

This week’s podcast covers…

• Al Gore buzz
• Jockeying between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s campaigns
• Ron Paul vs. Rudy Giuliani on national security
• Discussion of bloggers call with Gov. Mike Huckabee
• Iraq War Funding Bill: What’s going on and what it means for the campaigns
• And more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008 Central’s Presidential Election Podcast

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An Inconvenient … Sequel?

IESB.net has the details:

[Davis] Guggenheim’s stellar hit, An Inconvenient Truth, was the most talked about film in 2006. With Hollywood “sequel-happy” these days, it wasn’t a surprise when he revealed to the IESB that he is meeting with Paramount next week to discuss another one.

Although Gracie is a film with actors and sets, Guggenheim admitted he’s caught the “documentary bug.” IESB’s Robert Sanchez questioned, “how do you follow up [a documentary like] An Inconvenient Truth?”

Guggenheim responded, “I’m meeting with Paramount next week to talk about a sequel to Inconvenient Truth. Too early to talk about details…”

Considering Guggenheim was able to put the hit documentary together in five months, it’s quite possible he could have “Part 2” ready for the 2008 November elections.

Needless to say, a movie coming out with Al Gore in it by the 2008 election would surely be something to watch out for. But I also think it would have to mean that Gore is not running, if he’s taking any time to film another movie. It could potentially heighten awareness of the environment as a political issue, though.

We’ll keep an eye out as this develops.

UPDATE: Al Gore is on the Daily Show tonight; we’ll see if he addresses these rumors.

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Picture Of The Day: Desk Of A President?

Is this the desk of a president?

[Photo Credit: Time]

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Poll Vaulting: Iowans Call For Al Gore And Condoleezza Rice

An interesting new poll from The DesMoines Register gives high marks amongst likely Democratic primary voters to Al Gore and high marks amongst likely Republican primary voters to Condi Rice, Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson…

Usually, I don’t find polls particularly meaningful, but they can be interesting or entertaining; this poll is both. The one take away from this poll is that yet again it appears as though Republicans are significantly less satisfied with their choices than the Democrats are. Enjoy!

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Blog Buzz Watch (5/12/07-5/18/07)

Announcing a new weekly feature: Blog Buzz Watch
Each week, we will post a graph tracking references to the candidates in the blogosphere.

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 12:30 PM 5/12/07 and 12:30 PM 5/18/07…

Democrats

Republicans

Notes…

• We’ve included Al Gore and Fred Thompson simply for comparisons sake.
• For the Democrats: The graph is basically representative of the candidates positions in the field. There is a significant gap between the top tier candidates and the second tier ones. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as the top two, followed closely by John Edwards. Bill Richardson has broken out from the pack of second tier candidates a bit (perhaps his new commercials have something to do with that); this is yet another reminder of Richardson’s break out potential. The remaining candidates are all closely grouped together.
• For the Republicans: As expected because of the debate, overall the Republicans had more mentions this week than the Democrats.  Ron Paul had the most mentions this week, which is the result of his debate performance. John McCain had the most mentions of the top tier candidates, with Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson following him closely. Mike Huckabee, another candidate that we have long contended had the best break out potential, is the leader of the second tier. The remaining second tier candidates are all closely grouped together.

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Everyone Wants To Know If Gore Is Running…Especially John Edwards

Next week’s scheduled release of Al Gore’s newest book, The Assault On Reason, is generating some significant buzz about the prospect of a Gore candidacy.

Time takes an interesting look at the prospect of a Gore candidacy and basically concludes that it is highly unlikely that he’ll be running…

What would this Gore be like as a candidate? This Gore is just not all that tempted to find out.

The article is interesting and definitely worth a read, since it sums up a lot of the most recent Gore buzz and evaluates the veracity of it.  I should also note that the analysis of this article is essentially the same as the analysis that we provided back in March (yet again, a reminder that you’ll get here it first).

Until Gore officially says that he will not be running in 2008, his presence will have an influence on the campaign…

I’m sure John Edwards people have long been aware aware of/reacting to the information that the folks over at USA Election Polls neatly put together.  In short, Edwards’ numbers, especially in the south, are substantially affected by Gore…

Edwards gains 8% in the south when Gore is left off of the poll in southern states but only gains 4% in non-southern states. From 11% support in the south, he balloons up to 19%.

Edwards is successful in the south if Gore does not run. The only caveat to all of this is the fact that Edwards is still running third despite this. A lot of polls are still including Gore and this gives people the false perception that Edwards cannot win because his support is split between himself and Gore. The moment it becomes obvious that Al Gore will not run, Edwards will get a natural boost from the would-be Gore voters and public perception will lean towards “Edwards can win!”.

Then you will see a lot of momentum leaning towards the Edwards camp.

And then of course, there is plenty of money that Gore backers are holding onto and will continue to hold onto until it is clear that Gore will not be running in ‘08…

Of the 25 major players who helped raise at least $100,000 for Mr. Gore for the 2000 campaign, at least 12 have not donated or publicly committed to a candidate. [Source]

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