2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (04/05/08)

During this show, the gurus discuss the state of the race, the Clinton tax returns, Obama’s strategy in Penn., McCain strategy, a general election preview and much more….

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Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast). 

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The Bill Richardson Chronicles

In a word, boring. Michael Crowley gives the cliffnotes version:

Bill Richardson ran for president. He was nice to Hillary. Maybe he was angling for her veep? Then in Iowa he threw his non-viables to Obama. The Clintonites raged about a betrayal. Then he watched the Super Bowl with the other Bill and all was well. Then he was “genuinely torn” about who to endorse but didn’t like a phone call he got from a Clintonite. Then he endorsed Obama. Then Carville called him Judas. Then he blasted Carville for “character assassination.” Then they said he’d promised not to endorse Obama. Then he denied that. Then he said Hillary said Obama can’t win. Then Hillary’s people said he said Obama isn’t ready. Then he denied it. Then she seemed to deny saying what she supposedly said. Then her people said she didn’t deny saying that but won’t say if she did say it.

He’s going to make a really fun footnote in some historian’s book 50 years from now. Aside from that….

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Bill Richardson Endorses Barack Obama

At … umm … 3:08 EDT am. Seriously.

Richardson’s just hilarious. I’m going to assume he’s an insomniac like me. Or maybe Obama wanted to prove he actually could answer a call at 3 in the morning.

To note, this is after the Clintons - both of them - worked him hard for the endorsement for a long time, even sending Bill out to watch the Super Bowl with him. And it’s rumored Madeline Albright made some sort of demand on Richardson that got him angry. But who knows.

The bottom line is Obama gets another superdelegate and voice to call for the Wright controversy to stop being the top story. The bad news for Obama is that Richardson is likely to make some sort of gaffe in doing so.

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Kos Pains Me…

Kos writing on who Bill Richardson should endorse:

Endorse no one, Bill! Except he’s one of my two top choices for the veep slot (the other is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius), and I doubt that slot will go to someone who sits out the primary.

This is the kind of silly talk that makes me realize that if I started this website 8 years ago instead of 1 year ago, that it’d be just as big (probably bigger) than Daily Kos. My point being that people can’t really be flocking to him for brilliant political analysis, right? It must be because he’s just been around a while. I mean my goodness…

I’ve already touched on the subject of a Richardson VP possibility before, but with all the new talk out there, I’ll probably update this analysis in the next couple of days. What I said in early December about why a Hillary/Richardson ticket will not happen (not all, but some of the same arguments apply to why an Obama/Richardson ticket is also unlikely): Read more

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Yes, Bill Richardson Was That Crazy

The definitive proof comes in:

Richardson’s torn. He served in the Clinton White House, first as ambassador to the United Nations, then as Clinton’s Secretary of Energy. “I have a history with the Clintons,” Richardson said. “And I’ve always liked her. She always seems very genuine.” But Richardson considers Kennedy, who’s long been respected by Hispanics, as “a mentor.” In 1982, when Richardson ran for Congress for the second time — he lost two years before — Kennedy flew to Santa Fe and campaigned for him. “That might have been the reason I was elected,” Richardson said. And he said he likes Obama, telling a story about how Obama saved him during one of last year’s Democratic debates:

“I had just been asked a question — I don’t remember which one — and Obama was sitting right next to me. Then the moderator went across the room, I think to Chris Dodd, so I thought I was home free for a while. I wasn’t going to listen to the next question. I was about to say something to Obama when the moderator turned to me and said, ‘So, Gov. Richardson, what do you think of that?’ But I wasn’t paying any attention! I was about to say, ‘Could you repeat the question? I wasn’t listening.’ But I wasn’t about to say I wasn’t listening. I looked at Obama. I was just horrified. And Obama whispered, ‘Katrina. Katrina.’ The question was on Katrina! So I said, ‘On Katrina, my policy . . .’ Obama could have just thrown me under the bus. So I said, ‘Obama, that was good of you to do that.’”

On the bright side, we know he was not wearing an earpiece.

As for his endorsement, there’s a reason he’s not being listed with Kennedy, Gore, or Edwards as a powerful potential endorsement.

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Sunday Thoughts

I thought Mitt Romney had his best debate performance yesterday. When he got into the details on health care he was commanding and sounded like he actually knew what he was talking about. Other times, when he abandoned details to go back to pandering, it sounded far less natural and more forced. But for the first time, I really understand his appeal in this race.

I also think Clinton could have that sort of appeal if she decided to delve more into the details to explain why her plans are functional. But she tried to use smears too often instead last night. Clinton is the most substantive candidate, but this exchange highlights her mischaracterization:

Clinton: You know, Senator Obama has been — as the Associated Press described it, he could have a pretty good debate with himself, because four years ago, he was for single-payer health care. Then he moved toward a rejection of that, a more incremental approach. Then he was for universal health care. Then he proposed a health care plan that doesn’t cover everybody. I think that’s relevant. I mean, I think that what we’re looking for is a president we can count on, that you know where that president is yesterday, today and tomorrow. And I think that, you know, there are questions that should be asked and answered from each of us. And I certainly have no problem with whatever scrutiny comes my way.

Gibson: Senator Obama?

Obama: Well, you know, I think the Associated Press was quoting some of your folks, Hillary, so let’s talk specifically about health care, since you mentioned that. I have been entirely consistent in my position on health care. What I said — and I have said on the campaign trail this time — is if I were designing a system from scratch, I would set up a single- payer system, because we could gain enormous efficiencies from it. Our medical care costs twice as much per capita as any other advanced nation. But what I’ve also said is that, given that half of the people are getting, already, employer-based health care, that it would be impractical for us to do so, which is why I put forward a plan that says anybody can get health care that is the same as the health care that I have as a member of Congress — similar to the plans that you and John have offered.

Frankly, Obama’s position was clear to me, and I was just a blogger who did some campaign reading in between law school classes. This is similar to Clinton’s mischaracterization of Obama’s health care plan that I noted at the 100 Club dinner. His plan does not leave people out, it allows people to choose to not opt in. That’s a significant difference.

Moreover, Clinton immediately after that exchange was confronted by Obama that there was a significant philosophical difference between their plans. Instead of engaging in that debate (as Paul Krugman has), she instead changed the subject to the existence of a mandate for children. The reality though is that Clinton would probably out-debate Obama on such policy specifics. She’s running too conventional of a campaign that is not suited to her strengths, and can veer from intellectual honesty on occasion.

Clinton’s criticism of Obama on the Patriot Act also glossed over his record on the issue as well. I’m frustrated by this not because it is a slam against Obama but because I know Clinton can do better. Also, Clinton voted for the Patriot Act both times, and voted with Obama nearly identically since he entered the Senate on Iraq, as both sides have admitted…

On the other hand, Clinton is right that a top Obama official in New Hampshire is a registered lobbyist for pharmaceutical companies. Obama denied it in the campaign, but a clarification from his campaign today say he was denying the implications of that statement. That’s not really a convincing argument to me, and isn’t intellectually honest either. More background on the official (who was a big Gephardt supporter four years ago) here.

Ezra Klein is point blank right about the press room last night. The narrative about Clinton blowing up was completely uncalled for, and a result of a select few people making arguments that no one argued against.

Dayo Olopade gives a compelling rundown of the differences between Obama and Clinton and how real they are:

As usual Obama was right on pitch for his audience of south side blacks. But this statement also echoes yesterday’s point about where Clinton 1.0 fell short. Obama’s proposed “working majority for change” is all about numbers and energy–as he put it last night, “we have to bet on [the American people].” Hillary and Obama are both smart enough to know this makes his a risky run–with powerful consequences, or real “action,” if it continues to be successful.

If Hillary could be honest with herself, she might conclude that the “words” and “action” argument is a false choice. But without more explicit stuff than Obama gave last night, she might pull this spin off. So my main gripe is Obama’s hesitance to connect his message to his own experience. The “35 years” thing is ingrained by now–do Americans know that Obama does have the experience to back up the message that is captivating America? He needs to incorporate a new smattering of buzzwords into his speech, but foremost among them: “community organizer.” I am at a loss as to why he cannot be more precise about this compelling facet of his experience.

I thought John McCain was unnecessarily aggressive against Romney yesterday, in a way that wasn’t straight talk at all. Indeed, there are strange bedfellows who agree on that. But I still like McCain’s chances in the primary.

A suggestion for a new theme song for Richardson.

Lastly, there’s a significant amount of complaints about the debates yesterday being boring. I’m going to take a minority position and say that they were among the best of the cycle. Between these two debates, the NPR debate, and the Des Moines Register debate, there has been a lot of substance discussed in a meaningful way lately. Props to Charles Gibson and the ABC team for the debate format. Like others have said, these were mature debates that was about substance and not storylines.

Fact checking of Clinton by MSNBC.

Is this lowered expectations or a real fear?

Lastly, is it me or did Huckabee virtually disappear last night aside from his one swipe at Romney? Even when he was talking, he mostly talked around critical issues or disagreements of everyone else, instead of involving himself.

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Live Blog Of ABC News/Fox News/WMUR Democratic Debate In New Hampshire (01/05/07)

This evening, the Democratic presidential candidates will participate in the the ABC News/Facebook/WMUR debate in New Hampshire. The participating candidates are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and John Edwards.

8:41: The Republican debate has ended and now all the candidates, both Democratic and Republican are on stage. Interesting to see them all together like that.

8:42: There were some hoots and hollers in the press room when Rudy and Hillary greeted each other on stage.

9:03: Here we go, from left to right - John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Hillary Clinton.

9:04: Gibson starts with what he believes is the greatest threat to the U.S. - that being, Nuclear terrorism, of course. Question: How aggressively would the candidates go after potential nuclear terrorists.

9:05: Obama states that he would be willing to go into Pakistan to pursue nuclear terrorists, if he had actionable intelligence. Does anyone remember Obama jumping up and down when Pakistan signed a peace agreement with Waziristan, which makes it significantly harder for us to pursue terrorists in the region? I certainly don’t.

9:08: Edwards says that if he knew where Bin Laden is, he would go get him regardless of where he is. Gives a scary scenario of Pakistan losing control of its nuclear weapons and states that an ad hoc approach to this will not work, rather we need a cohesive policy. Indicates that he would work towards ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

9:10: Richardson says that he would always use diplomacy first in any foreign policy decision. Honestly, this statement is the equivalent of one of these candidates stating “When I get up in the morning, I promise to stand up, put on a pair of pants and then proceed with my day…always ensuring that I have pants on.” Richardson goes on to say that he would use leverage to push Musharraf out and establish a caretaker government of technocrats. Again, this is such a mind bogglingly oversimplification that a red mark appeared on my forehead without me even needing to slap it.

9:12: Hillary makes a quick reference to aggressive action taken by the Bill Clinton’s administration in the 90s. Then goes on to note 5 specific issues regarding the situation that need to be thought of and addressed. Hillary is best in the details and should stay there, although she can be a bit long winded. One thing worth noting is that she stated, ‘Musharraf is already president and these elections are about the parliament.’ She was criticized recently for a series of gaffes regarding this subject, where she incorrectly stated that Musharraf was running in the elections.

9:15: Richardson wants to remember history. Talks about Iran, the Shah, but does a terrible job making a strong connection to the present discussion.

9:18: Gibson asks another question. This time about what we wish we would have done the day after a nuclear weapon is detonated in an American city. Edwards jumps in and states that the first thing we need to do is find the people responsible for it immediately. Edwards notes that it’s important for the president to react, but react strong…oh and to also remain calm. This distinguishes him from the other candidates because…why? I mean seriously, this isn’t a real answer. The question was about what we WISH WE WOULD HAVE DONE….not….what should the demeanor of the president be after the attack.

9:20: Clinton goes back to the first part of the question. Hillary talks about nonproliferation, we would have wished we had done more and then states how she would go about doing it. She criticizes security at ports. I’m going to have to go ahead and call bollocks on this (but NOT the dog’s bollocks, for our English readers). Here’s why I say this: Hillary didn’t even vote on the US-Peru free trade agreement. One of the major issues with that legislation is the fact that it provides port security concerns (i’ll update later with a link to the post i’ve already written on this). If she really cared, she could have argued about it on the trail and voted against this legislation or worked to have the security issues resolved, but she didn’t. Oh, and Obama didn’t vote on this either.

9:24: Richardson chimes in. He says that he would “immediately seek negotiations with the Soviet Union.” Now is when I stop paying attention to someone that talks about diplomacy and experience and then still refers to Russia as the Soviet Union (would we like it, if they referred to the U.S. as “the colonies” or “the confederacy”?)

9:26: Gibson asks Hillary to contrast her and Obama on her contention that Obama is “not ready.” Hillary seriously dodges the question and says that there are still questions that people can ask.

9:28: Obama doesn’t let Sen. Clinton get away with it. Says that the story that Gibson was referring to was based on quotes from people in her campaign. Then turns to health care. He then Clinton on her major critique of his healthcare plan - the charge being that he leaves out 15 million people. Obama explains that, his plan is about reducing costs and that it’s a legitimate area for disagreement and that he offers choice.

9:30: Hillary responds. She offers a really strong first response, regarding the fact that Obama has mandates for children but not for adults…Obama effectively counters that it’s about choice and since children aren’t in a position to make that choice, it’s mandated. Hillary tries to follow up, but flubs and then launches into a new attack — that Obama is a flip-flopper (queue creepy organ music). Attempting to lump Edwards in with her “defensive” position, Hillary criticizes Obama for changing positions on mandates, the Patriot Act and war funding.

9:34: Edwards doesn’t bite. Instead, he goes on to repudiate Clinton’s claim that Obama is a flip flopper. Then he goes on to attack Hillary by saying that the real debate is about who is best to be that agent of change, calls Hillary the status quo and again references his #2 finish in Iowa.

9:35: Hillary is not having any of that. Offers examples of things she has changed - like bringing about the Family Medical Leave Act and other legislation. Money quote: “I’m not running on a promise of change, I’m running on 35 years of change.”

9:36: Richardson talks about being to hostage negations more civil than this debate, basically asks what is wrong with him. I could answer that — he has described his mind as mush and is somewhat erratic, otherwise, he would be a really strong candidate.

9:37: Edwards whines…no no, really, I know it’s hard to believe.

9:41: Question: Is the surge working? Hillary says no and explains by clarifying what the underlying purpose of the surge is. Richardson believes it’s a massive failure and talks about the need for a regional solution. He keeps pounding the table, which makes an annoying noise in the mic and undermines a rare Richardson rhetorical flurry.

9:43: Obama doesn’t say the surge is working either. Credits a significant portion of reduced violence in a mindset amongst Iraqis that America may be leaving soon. I wonder if there’s any real evidence for this, it would certainly be really interesting.

9:47: Edwards is asked about his previous support of timetables and whether he would still have a timetable if the generals said it was not a good idea. Edwards says that it’s the job of the president to set policy, and that while he would listen to generals. Then gives plan: 40,000-50,000 troops out within the first year and an end to all combat missions in Iraq.

9:49: Richardson takes issue with Edwards’ contention by noting that leaving troops there means they become targets. Stresses the need to remove all the troops within 1 year…and again, hits the table in a way that makes a very loud noise.

9:51: Hillary references her request last year that the Bush administration assure the Senate that they are preparing plans for withdrawal…then says “when” she is president, she will being a withdrawal almost immediately.

9:53: Time for a 3 minute break!

9:58: A reference is made to Edwards and Obama attacking Hillary in the first half — Hillary’s cackle is back and she thanks the questioner for noticing. Then, she is asked how she feels about the notion that Obama is more likable than her. She jokes about her feelings, Obama says “she’s likable enough” (ouch) and then she launches into the fact that it’s a serious question, she has 35 years of experience and is prepared to deliver this change. She references Bush’s promise for change as well and talks about how that wasn’t delivered. She also notes that having the first woman president is real change. She rarely discusses gender this explicitly.

10:02: Obama talks about the need to build a working majority in order to bring about change and that’s why he’s best capable to create a new working majority.

10:05: Richardson is asked about his time as Energy Secretary and how if the debate is the same then as it is now, whether that means he failed. Richardson acknowledges that both parties failed and then launches into some of the things that he did during the time. This wasn’t a very good question, but there were other more specific and fairer questions to ask Richardson about during his Energy Secretary time — like his actual administration of the Department of Energy.

10:10: Edwards is asked to cite something specific that he accomplished while he was a Senator. Edwards talks about the patient’s bill of rights. It’s sort of sad that this is the example he used, given that it was killed in the house. It wasn’t an accomplishment, really.

10:14: Hillary asks for a reality break and talks about the fact that the Patient’s Bill of Rights never was passed. Then states that it’s important to be realistic and states that she’s best placed to bring about change.

10:16: Gibson goes off on the notion of change in Washington and challenges to candidates to really convince him that change is possible now. Cites Bill Clinton’s inability to bring about change in 1992 and Bush’s inability to bring about change in 2000. Hillary fiercely defends bill’s action from ‘92. The candidates launch into a discussion about change, but nothing really interesting emerges, so I will spare you the details.

10:24: Carbon tax question…whether it’s a bad idea or just very politically volatile. Richardson says that carbon tax is a bad idea. Hey! Were you aware of the fact that he was Energy Secretary? Because he just made a fleeting reference to it…

10:26: Hillary breaks out the “it’s the economy, stupid” argument.  She states that she believes the economy is heading for a recession.  This argument was expected to come out of the Clinton campaign.  Then ties in the possible benefits that new energy can have on the economy.

10:27: Gibson goes to ask Edwards a question, but Hillary challenges the premise and gets another minute of substantive talk time in.

10:33: Richardson is asked to address the tax issue from a governor’s perspective…Richardson starts offering a laundry list of ways to address this issue.  Among them, he references the line item veto.  *sigh*

10:34: Well, it’s the end of the debate, so it’s time for a very dumb question.  This one: What response during any of the debates would you take back?  Hillary dodges the question, which was obviously asked to get her to discuss her immigration answer.  Richardson acknowledges that he has made a lot of mistakes and then comically discusses his bad answer to which Supreme Court Justice he idolized the most.

10:37: John Edwards says that his biggest mistake was when he teased Hillary about the jacket she was wearing.  Obama gives boring, serious, safe answer.

10:38: And we’re done!

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Analysis & Commentary Videocast Of New Hampshire Democratic Party 100 Club Dinner

We attended the NHDP 100 Club dinner yesterday evening, below is 21 minute video discussing the evening…

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

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Live Blog Of New Hampshire Democratic Party 100 Club Dinner (Live From Milford!)

[Update: we've put up a video containing our commentary on the evening, check it out...]

Tonight, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is having its annual 100 Club Dinner. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich will be delivering speeches at this event. You can watch it live on C-SPAN or online beginning at 6:30pm.

5:00: We’re inside the building and press and guests are funneling in slowly. There’s a sizable Obama contingent outside that chanted as the staff here unreasonably forced press (and us!) to wait outside seemingly indefinitely, and we saw what looked like a small mountain of Clinton supporters down the road. All 5 remaining Democratic candidates plus Howard Dean are scheduled to make an address tonight.

5:32: The place is really starting to fill up now and people are eating.

5:51: The guests at this event are staring at the people in the press area as though there’s something quite magical going on in here. (press area pictured right)

6:38: And … the program is about to get underway, to the upbeat tunes of 2001: A Space Odyssey. Nothing inspires more than monkeys arbitrarily starting to worship a giant pole simply because it’s there. For the record, all the candidates plus Howard Dean and the NH Dem Representatives (both who have endorsed Obama) and Gov. Lynch (whose wife has endorsed Clinton) are slated to speak.

6:49: They’re running the Space Odyssey video again! And once again comparing their primary to a bunch of monkey worshiping a pole that suddenly appears; worse, this appears to have been done without a lick of irony.

6:54: There’s a lot of implicit comparisons of Obama to JFK, who was the first guest of a 100 Club Dinner; JFK is referred to in opening remarks as “the young senator from Massachusetts.”

7:00: After the pledge of allegiance and national anthem, it’s time for awards.

7:05: Jeanne Shaheen is introduced just before John Lynch and she gets a significantly lower amount of applause than Lynch. Effect of Obama backers not cheering as loudly?

7:06: Lynch speaks briefly, introducing his wife who has endorsed Clinton. Touts New Hampshire as first primary. Thanks Dodd and Biden for their commitment and they are apparently here! They get a solid round of applause. Lynch continues, touting retail politics.

7:11: Former Rep. Richard Swett speaks, touting the large crowd and Jeanne Shaheen’s run for Senate.

7:19: Donors are recognized, with Obama’s campaign getting a massive ovation, and no one else cheering much; the Clinton campaign was listed second, and its people were not ready to cheer, apparently. But the Obama people have made their presence felt, in a volley past the Clinton’s campaign’s bow.

7:24: Edwards is not coming. Apparently he feels this event is too much of a bigwig event. It’s a party fundraiser, though, and it’s hard to see how allowing all the focus to be on Clinton and Obama will help him.

7:26: Howard Dean speaks. After noting his nostalgia, he talks up the big turnout, then quoting Reagan - yes Reagan - in saying it is “morning in America” once again. That should get some people huffy. Talks up 80% of youth going to Democrat caucus in Iowa, and Democratic caucuses being large. Makes a joke about him not going on lists of states, and strikes a pose. Says that the Democrats are mostly the same, there are no significant differences. That has to help Obama, right? Says that Republicans and Bush are the biggest problem. Says Hastert and Lott resigned to avoid being subject to new ethics law for lobbyists. Talks up Republican attack machine and the problems with certain voting boxes, specifically citing my home county, Cuyahoga county in Ohio. Says 3,000 people are here, and that constant involvement is what gets the vote out. Says he wants to go back to person to person contact. That’s … ummm … a bit outdated. I say that as someone who has seen canvassers up close. Says greatness has to be earned and more clichés, such as America being “healed.” Says there are no red states or blue states, just … purple states. (Obama almost had his penultimate line stolen). Says Martin Luther King would be impressed at the makeup of the Democratic candidates. Compares GOP candidates to the 50s, and finally calls for Democrats to elect the future. That speech has to make Obama’s camp smile.

7:40: Another round of applause for Dodd and Biden. Another round of applause for Dick Gephardt. And also a round of applause for Elizabeth Edwards, who is here. I’m baffled as to why John Edwards is not here; he headlined it 3 years ago!

7:45: We’ve reached the “Attack John Sununu” portion of the program. We’ll return when something we care about does.

7:50: Paul Hodes, who has endorsed Obama, speaks. He mentions Obama themes such as unity and change, while attacking Bush with Edwards-esque rhetoric. One forced applause plus a bunch of screaming into the microphone = headache for me. Obama people force some applause at the end.

7:56: State democrats are here and happy to be in the majority.

8:00: Carol Shea-Porter, another Obama endorser, speaks. She talks broadly about Democrats being right for people of all parties. Talks about the value of SCHIP while remaining otherwise neutral.

8:05: More state democrats are here and, shockingly, still happy to be in the majority.

8:08: Dennis Kucinich is here! His theme is that he is “Waiting on the world to change.” He’s still waiting, apparently. His wife escorts him to the podium, apparently to remind everyone that she is good looking. He says he skipped Iowa on purpose because New Hampshire is so awesome. Says no one should have to settle, and that funding the war is the problem, and they can be home in three months. Says he is “totally aligned with the mainstream aspirations of the Democratic Party.” Cites ending the war immediately and canceling the Patriot Act immediately, and that Bush and Cheney should be punished, and that there is no statute of limitations for war crimes. Gets a decent round of applause in a wild flurry; needless to say, none of those applauding will be voting for him. He calls for the “old time religion” of FDR and a new WPA. Talks specifically about the shipbuilding industry, as if its the 1830s and the height of the Clipper ship era. Gets silence when he talks about how he is going to solve things, but gets applause at mentioning that problems exist. He has a tone to him that makes him sound like a robot. Finishes with a call for impeachment against Bush and Cheney, as he whips out a pocket Constitution Byrd-style. Says he and everyone is viable.

8:19: Hillary Clinton is introduced to audio problems with her music. I’m not sure what the introduction music is, but perhaps it is appropriate that there was a glitch in the beginning. She gets a lot of whistles; there’s no cheering, just whistling. Again, not to go all John McClane, but this is not helping my headache. Asks a series of questions if NH is “ready” for a president … which is her new slogan. Says we know the country can do better and be part of the change. Says America needs a POTUS who is a champion; She uses her ’some people want to fight for change, others hope’ line … and gets a significant amount of boos, as she segues into experience. She’s really doubling down on experience. Now she moves on to criticizing Bush, and criticizes Bush for being divisive, and creating a sense of fatalism, and that America has to try. Now she’s adapting a lot of Obama’s themes, but just glossing over them, as she talks about saving the middle class, specifically through health care. Says her plan is politically viable and will cover everyone by bringing business and labor together. Says that “those” who offer “virtual health care” leave people out. This is BLATANTLY misleading, as she says really sick people cannot be left out, giving multiple examples; Obama’s plan leaves uncovered healthy young adults who would simply willingly not enter the plan. No one who is sick or unhealthy would not apply. Krugman for one is attacking this problem from Clinton’s side honestly; Clinton’s stump speech does not. Moreover, people are realizing that. She moves on to energy, and gives a laundry list of things that can be done. She then moves on to Iraq. She talks at length on Iraq, emphasizing how difficult and dangerous the situation is, and that every American, including civilians, need to come home, and that Iraqis who put their lives on the line for Americans need to be helped as well. She moves on to health care for troops. Concludes by saying that there cannot be reliance on false hopes, that there must be a president who is ready on Day 1. (She asks this as a rhetorical question, and an Obama chant breaks out! She quickly tries to recover and speak over it.) She says that she has taken plenty of fire from Republicans and is still standing, which gets her crowd back into it. Talks about finding common ground with Republicans when possible, and that she has stood her ground when she had to. Says she is running for President to give back. Does anyone believe that? No one runs for President for that reason. Says that she will make history, and that wraps her speech up as Bill and Chelsea join her very briefly on stage. Oh, apparently her theme song is the Dixie Chicks “Ready to run.” Interesting that the lyrics such as “You see it feels like I’m starting to care, And I’m gonna be ready this time.” And it includes nothing about winning. …

8:44: People are being told to take their seats before *Richardson speaks. (As the Clinton clan leaves, I am sure.) *Oops. Not Obama

8:45: Richardson is introduced to the U2 song “Where the Streets Have No Name.” Apparently he wants to run and hide and tear down walls that hold him inside. Either that or he is seriously concerned about poison rain. He speaks, introducing his wife first, for one of the only times this campaign. Richardson jumps in and says that the war is the only issue that matters, and that it is the only thing he wants to talk about. He blames the press and the president. A Hillary supporter near me blames Richardson for Clinton losing in Iowa. Richardson says his plan gets all the troops out in one year, and talks about his plan. Somewhere in this massive room, Joe Biden is rolling his eyes. Richardson says troops cannot stay until 2013. Talks about his experience as a negotiator and diplomat as being crucial to make this change possible. He then moves on from Iraq, breaking his promise to only talk about one issue that he made only 7 minutes ago, talking about health care and education, and how bad things are in America right now, including NCLB. He gets polite applause through his speech. I’m not sure Richardson’s plan to increase minimum salaries for teachers in Constitutional. As Richardson lists other initiatives and talks about people of NH being open to other candidates, a MASSIVE exodus of people starts moving across the ballroom - apparently Obama people getting ready to storm the stage. It’s pretty damn rude. Richardson is unfazed, and says that the national media should not decide the election. Says that turnout of Iowa showed desire for change. No sooner does Richardson’s exit music start than Obama chants start up. It’s slightly annoying … but somewhat charming at the same time. It’s a thin line where they risk turning into such zealots that they’re ignored, ala Paulites.

9:00: There’s an amazing amount of Obama supporters; This is an Obama event at this point. And it should be clear … these people did not buy tickets yesterday. These are $100 tickets that sold out long ago. His organization has constantly outperformed others at competitive events. I cannot stress enough how much Obama turnout there is here.

9:01: The crowd is forced to take their seats before they can proceed .. and the massive crowd starts booing. In the end it probably just made his crowd that much more noticed.

9:02: Obama comes out to City of Blinding Lights by U2. “The more you see the less you know.” Hopefully that will not be prophetic. He clearly gets the best reception of the evening. The crowd is standing for his speech. Says that in four days, they can prove the cynics wrong. The press is more attentive now than they were for Clinton’s speech. He gives the unity schtick .. and the place goes nuts. He talks about lifting the country up, not bringing each other down; with a lead, that’s a fairly effective shield against a lot of attacks Clinton might otherwise launch. Obama touts his ability to bring youth in Iowa, and how he watched it. Touts his specific support among youth, women, independents, and republicans. Cites Hodes and Shea-Porter. Says he ran because that America is on the cusp of forming a new majority in the country. (A far more compelling reason than Clinton’s, if as idealistic). Talks about how the majority can help solve the problems of Bush, but festered “long before” Bush took over. Attacks lobbyists; this is far more effective without Edwards hitting him on the issue. Another chant breaks out. Talks about challenging interests (Detroit, Wall Street). Moves to health care, and talks about his mother reading insurance forms on her death bed in a hospital bed, and that he understands that pain of seeing a loved one suffer. That’s a new story. Says that the reform will be done by the end of his first term. Says he will end the “tyranny of oil” and create a “green economy.” Talks about Iraq and Afghanistan, and closing Guantanamo. Talks about being a President who taught the Constitution. Talks about a politics of hope. Mentions the “fierce urgency of now.” Says the broken system cannot solve the problems of today. Moves on to talking about how people are calling for experience; says they are saying that entails boiling hope away; says that argument does not work because the real gamble would be to have the same people in the same system in Washington and expecting new results. Says that results do not come from more anger or “turning up the heat” but from more light. Says that working across the aisle when you know who you are gets things done. He is unbelievable with a crowd. Moves on to those who make fun of him for talking about hope. Talks about hope not being blind optimism or ignorance of roadblocks but the “opposite of that.” Says he knows how hard it will be to deliver health care, global warming, and environmental change is difficult. Cites his experience on the streets and as a civil rights attorney. Says a small group of folks believing is how great things start - the revolution, the civil war, world war two, and the civil rights movement. I heard a different version of this speech yesterday and right now it sounds completely fresh. Says this moment is the chance for this generation to make its mark on history. Cites hunger and thirst for something, which is reminiscent of the biblical line ‘hunger and thirst for righteousness.’ Says that his administration would heal the country, and concludes with the loudest applause of the night. Impressive speech thematically and how it was delivered, especially considering he gave a similar speech yesterday!

And that does it, we’ll be back later tonight and tomorrow with more from New Hampshire.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (01/03/08)

This podcast covers the results of the Iowa Caucuses. We discuss the significance of Huckabee’s victory, the state of the Republican race after Iowa and we also dissect Obama’s victory and analyze the rest of the Democratic race.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Live Blog Of Concession/Winning Speeches

9:00: Reminder, Dems: Obama, Edwards, Clinton; GOP: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson/McCain/Paul

9:09: Andrea Mitchell calls it a “remarkably bad outcome for Hillary”

9:10: Matthews says the Clinton comeback begins now.

9:11: John Edwards is making an appearance, smiling; Matthews cites Edwards’ need to win in order to be relevant after Iowa. Elizabeth Edwards introduces him, and thanks everyone.

9:13: Elizabeth Edwards cites their campaign being outspent 6-1 combined. That’s REALLY disingenuous. Edwards speaks, saying that the status quo lost and change won. Essentially declares the death of Clinton.

9:15: Edwards talks about problems with health care, including a girl who was denied coverage of health insurance, and also the man who could not talk for 50 years. He also cites the Maytag plant closing. Cites the Roosevelts and Truman as presidents with backbone. By the way, it’s unclear if the insurance company really was responsible as Edwards claims:

Mark Geragos, attorney for the girl’s family, said he plans to ask the district attorney to press murder or manslaughter charges against CIGNA HealthCare in the case. The insurer “maliciously killed her” because it did not want to bear the expense of her transplant and aftercare, Geragos said. Video Watch as the family takes on CIGNA »

Nataline had been battling leukemia and received a bone marrow transplant from her brother. She developed a complication, however, that caused her liver to fail.

Doctors at UCLA determined she needed a transplant and sent a letter to CIGNA Healthcare on December 11. The Philadelphia-based health insurance company denied payment for the transplant.

On Thursday, about 150 teenagers and nurses protested outside CIGNA’s office in Glendale. As the protesters rallied, the company reversed its decision and said it would approve the transplant.

Despite the reversal, CIGNA said in an e-mail statement before she died that there was a lack of medical evidence showing the procedure would work in Nataline’s case.

“Our hearts go out to Nataline and her family, as they endure this terrible ordeal,” the company said. ” … CIGNA HealthCare has decided to make an exception in this rare and unusual case and we will provide coverage should she proceed with the requested liver transplant.”

9:19: Edwards rails against corporations, including oil companies. Every cliché is hit. He even drops that Elizabeth has breast cancer, and others will too. It’s a litany of sob stories, including homeless veterans. Says America can fix all this.

9:22: Edwards says change won. He’s going on and on, possibly to minimize others getting on 11pm newscasts on the east coast? Just a guess. He hasn’t said much at all.

9:23: Matthews notes that neither Edwards congratulated the victor, and that they did not want to concede in ‘04; the campaign theme song of Kerry kicks in. (The Rising, by Springsteen).

9:25: The Clintons are on stage, with a large group of people including Vilsack, Albright, and Clark. In other words: we still have a lot of support. A ‘Hillary’ chant breaks out as Bill gives a thumbs up. She promises to take the enthusiasm to New Hampshire and ‘it is a great night for Democrats.’ Says this turnout means Democrats will win. She congratulates Obama and Edwards and thanks Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden by name.

9:27: Her demeanor is pitch perfect for such a disappointing night. Pivots to focus on how a winning with a candidate “who can go the distance … and be the best president on day one.” Cites her plans to run a national campaign through the early states, while chiding independents and Republicans who came late to the table.

9:30: Families are good and need to be kept good.

9:32: She is ready to lead. Cites health care and energy. Also cites education reforms. Says she is more optimistic about the country than her campaign. Says a lot of people could not caucus - those in the military. Also says people work at night. This sounds like a line of excuses.

9:34: Thanks the unions across the country who support her. She says the election is about the future (uhm, no crap). And that’s it, and everyone starts hugging each other.

9:37: Huck! He’s ready to go. Chuck Norris is right behind him, and smiling like a cheshire cat. He says he loves Iowa a lot tonight. Thanks everyone who treated him with respect and listened to him. Really humble and personable approach that really works in direct contrast to most of the field. Says his wife will be a great First Lady. Thanks his children.

9:41: Says his campaign starts in Iowa and ends in Washington a year from now. Says money has proven to be overrated. Says that tonight could forever chan gethe political system. (Uhm, probably not.) Says choice was for a change, but change can be for the worse or better.

9:43: The greatest generation can be the next generation. (Another anti-boomer candidate?) Says the election and country is not about him, but tonight will start a “prairie fire” across the country. Says the people are the ruling class in America.

9:45: Huck cites GK Chesterson, a Christian apologetic, and says people must love people behind them not hate those in front of him as Chuck Norris stands directly behind him. Says we must do whatever it takes to do what is right for those in America. Reminds everyone that this is the beginning. Again thanks Iowa.

9:51: Tim Russert looks like he’s been drinking whiskey all day. He’s staring at Brian Williams a bit uncomfortably.

10:02: Romney spoke at the same time as Huckabee, citing the Olympics as different events having different results.

10:03: Obama takes the stage with his family. They leave and Obama takes the podium.

10:04: Says the cynics have been proven wrong. He’s in ‘big speech’ mode. Cites New Hampshire next, and the rest of America after that. Cites the big turnout, and Democrats, Republicans, and Independents standing together for change and for one country. Starts echoing the 04 Convention speech with uniting red states and blue states. Says time has come to take power back from lobbyists and for an honest president. Says he can be that president if New Hampshire gives him the same support. Unbelievable atmosphere compared to the other campaigns. Says he will make health care affordable and available to everyone. Promises a middle class tax cut. Speaks of freeing America from the tyranny of oil. The speech is focused on him as a president, and mixing that message with his campaign theme.

10:11: Thanks organizers and precinct captains; no one else thanked them. Thanks his wife, “the closer on the campaign trail.”

10:12: Says it was not done for him, but for American ideals and fighting against odds for what people believe in.

10:13: Says nights like this justify the hard times in a campaign, and this is the moment it all began. Says the improbably and “what Washington said was inevitable” are torn down. Says politics of cynicism were beaten down. Says hope is not blind, but that something better is available if it is worked for. Says hope was what inspired the American Revolution, World War II, and the civil rights movement.

10:17: Obama says it’s about the USA and wraps it up to thunderous applause.

10 :18: Quickly over to Biden, who is dropping out. He thanks film makers and those that are supporting him. Thanks his wife.

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Iowa Caucuses Open Thread

Topic: The Iowa Caucuses…talk amongst yourselves…

Read more

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Did Obama And Richardson Make a Deal For Supporters? Biden?

Iowa Independent reports that the Richardson campaign has made a strategic decision to send supporters to caucus for Obama in the second round if Richardson fails the viability test. As reported, there does not seem to be a mutual agreement between the campaigns. But, there does seem to be some vagueness on the issue, so maybe there is sort of a deal?

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, responding to the report that Mr. Obama had reached an agreement for reciprocal support with Bill Richardson’s campaign, insisted the campaign had reached “no formal arrangements” with any of his rivals. But he said that “there are certainly places where our precinct captains want to work with Richardson” supporters — to gain second-choice support in cases where Mr. Richardson doesn’t reach the threshold to compete, or to lend Mr. Richardson surplus backers in instances where they can’t yield any additional Obama delegates.

“We’re giving our precinct captains a lot of latitude to work this out,” Mr. Plouffe said. “We’re going to fight as hard as we can for every one” of Mr. Richardson’s available supporters, and “It comes down to how well our precinct captains do.” With polling showing that Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards are the top contenders for second-choice support, Mr. Plouffe said they’d made similar efforts with supporters of Joseph Biden and Chris Dodd as well. Dennis Kucinich has already publicly urged his backers to support Mr. Obama in precincts where Kucinich is not viable.

Regardless, this seems to be motivated by Richardson’s desire to prolong his campaign by avoiding a Hillary victory in Iowa, which would help cement her as the nominee, or by facilitating the enhancement of Edwards as the alternative candidate. Accordingly, Richardson feels that an Obama victory would undermine Edwards and help boost him as the alternative to Hillary and Obama in subsequent primaries.

If true, this strategy makes sense to me. That said, if a candidate has to resort to these kinds of tactics in the current field, it demonstrates just how weak the candidacy is. Additionally, I’m not really sure this will have much of an impact anyway. Richardson’s ground operation in Iowa is extremely weak. So his lack of organization coupled with the campaign’s decision not to publicize this strategy decision, means that it likely won’t materialize into very much.

This is following a NYT report of a more formal agreement. Meanwhile Biden seems to reject any possibility of a deal, after negotiations with the Obama campaign broke down:

The Biden source described the possible Obama deal as “viability for victory.” An Obama source confirmed that discussions had taken place, but that nothing had been decided.

But as of this afternoon, it appeared no agreement could be reached. Biden campaign Iowa State director Danny O’Brien said “there are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign. We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own.”

In other Richardson news, he, like the other candidates seemed pretty tired (and somewhat cranky) on CNN this morning: Read more

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Any More Deals After Kucinich Backed Obama?

There’s some indications that Obama could be backed by Richardson or Biden. (Via Yglesias and Chris Bowers)

The presumptive reason for Biden, according to Yglesias and general conventional wisdom, is that Richard Holbrook is pretty much a shoo-in to be Clinton’s Secretary of State, and that is still a position Biden covets. (Or, Biden could be the gravitas-adding VP pick, although I think the presumption of change in Obama’s campaign will lead to a choice of someone more of an outsider or new to Washington.)

Yglesias seems to suggest Richardson could be Obama’s VP pick … but given Richardson’s mixed records and proximity for gaffes recently (calling for Musharraf to resign?) Obama could foreseeably pick either of them for a cabinet slot … but VP? I’m guessing Obama has enough baggage as it is; he needs a safe choice for VP, and Richardson especially is not a safe pick. The primary campaign has not even gotten into his record, which is almost as mixed as Mitt Romney’s.

Moreover, at this late juncture, it will be hard for candidates to effectively control their supporters anyways. I think it will be what deals the people on the ground make (what Hitchens has called ‘mini-bribes’) and not what decisions the candidates make.

As it is, polls seem to indicate Edwards has a huge advantage over Obama and Clinton in this area.

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Follow-Up: Richardson On Pakistan

Earlier this week, I wrote about Bill Richardson’s silly recommendation for dealing with Pakistan. Mark Steyn at the National Review offers a critical look at Richardson’s “plan” and provides some excellent substance. Read more

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You Know You’re In The Second Tier When …

. . . you need someone from the West Wing to campaign for you in Iowa. It’s hard to say you’re about to topple the front runners and at the same time call Richard Schiff in to help.

And you know you’re in the third tier when you can’t get someone from the West Wing to campaign for you.

Bonus Context:

Jon Stewart: Now listen, what do you think about, you definitely also have a little bit of that Hollywood flair. You’re gonna start drawing the celebrities. Oprah is gonna throw a fundraiser.

Obama: Right.

Jon: That doesn’t seem good. I still remember Howard Dean in Iowa, with Martin Sheen introducing him, quoting an Indian poet to a caucus group of literally like AFL–CIO workers, and just seeing their faces like this: “Huh?? What is he talking about?”

Obama: Well, you know, you don’t use folks in that way. I think Oprah’s support is wonderful. I think having the celebrities want to do stuff for you — but the truth is, in Iowa and New Hampshire, people just want to talk to you. They want to lift the hood, they want to kick the tires, they want to look you in the eye, they want to get a sense, are you telling the truth? There’s nobody that can do that job other than you.

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