Presidential Candidacies, Even Failed Ones, Offer Increased Influence To Candidates

This is hardly scientific, but it’s worth noting that presidential campaigns, even failed ones, have a tendency of increasing a candidate’s influence/power (as one would expect).

Below is a table indicating the candidate’s power ranking in their respective chamber for the years 2005 through 2008.  It’s worth noting that the sudden changes in some of the rankings between 2006 and 2007 is mostly the result in changeover from Republican to Democratic control.

[Table=7]

[Table=8]

[* = former candidate]
[Source: Congress.org]

In retrospect, some campaigns, which at the time made no sense at all, make at least a bit more sense now, while some continue to haunt my brain to this day.

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Memo to Voters: None of the Candidates Will Lower Your Gas Prices; A Glance At Clinton’s “Plan”

One of the oddities of current elective politics is not who the media covers, or in what tone they cover them, but rather the insipid approach to issues most people find important. For instance, gas prices. Andrew Leonard wrote about gas prices and the presidential election at Salon earlier this week. To his credit, he states the obvious: Presidents cannot lower gas prices.

But Leonard’s piece is an exception. In the explosion of meta analysis of presidential politics, it’s become more chic to talk about what voters are voting for than to write about the reality on the ground. The role of the press and commentators has somehow transformed from what Thomas Jefferson called ” the best instrument for enlightening the mind of man” into a virtual Oracle at Delphi, working only on predictive functions rather than analytical ones. For instance, today Hillary Clinton is actually holding a campaign event at a Pittsburgh gas station. From her press release (which we will post shortly):

Hillary Clinton will visit a gas station in Pittsburgh to discuss her plan to offer relief from skyrocketing gas prices that are hurting the pocketbooks of families in Pennsylvania and across the country. At the Curran Gulf Gas Station, Hillary will be joined by the owner, Jay Curran, gas station employees, and Janice Hodge, a local resident who has been forced to cut back on other household expenses due to the high cost of gas.

Read more

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Dodd Set To Endorse Obama

We have our first former Democratic candidate endorsement … and for those of you waiting on the edge of your seats for Edwards or Richardson, be prepared to be a bit disappointed. Chris Dodd is endorsing Barack Obama Tuesday in my hometown, Cleveland, Ohio before the Democratic Debate. This will be welcome news for Obama, who seems to be rolling out a big endorsement a week now.

Dodd will endorse his colleague, a senator from Illinois, in Cleveland on Tuesday, according to a Democratic official close to Dodd who requested anonymity because no formal announcement had been made.

Dodd’s support, coupled with his liberal credentials, could provide a boost for Obama as major contests near in big states such as Ohio and Texas on March 4. Obama has won some key Democratic endorsements in recent weeks, including Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, a close friend of Dodd.

Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had been vying for Dodd’s support since he exited the presidential race after a poor showing in the Iowa caucus last month. Dodd, who won his Senate seat in 1980 and chaired the Democratic National Committee from 1995-1996, has long-standing ties to the Clintons.

Dodd is a “superdelegate,” one of nearly 800 Democratic officeholders and party officials who automatically attend the national convention and can vote for whomever they choose. They have become an important force in the close race between Clinton and Obama, and both candidates are lobbying hard for their support.

Now, let’s be honest: Dodd does not have any significant popular support outside of Connecticut, where Obama already won. But he has a strong record with liberals, particularly on FISA at the moment. He also was endorsed previously by IAFF, the union that carried Kerry to victory in the 2004 primary, and he might have sway in getting them to join the other unions that have recently joined Obama. That would be a major get for Obama, since there currently is a divide between government oriented unions (AFSCME, NEA) that support Clinton and non-government ones (SEIU, UCW, Change to Win) that support Obama. Moreover, firefighters are just more inspiring and credible than any of the other unions I listed (no offense intended). Furthermore, IAFF president referred to Obama’s support in mid-January as “breathtaking.”

But with the strong Obama vibe at dailykos, it’s not that surprisng Dodd joined along, as he was their second favorite candidate and he had been hinting Obama might not be able to be stopped. With Edwards joining Obama endorsers SEIU and Moveon.org for an anti-war effort Monday, he may be next in line. But clearly that’s speculative at this point. I’m reasonably sure, though, that Richardson will not endorse until he can be 100% sure he is backing the winning candidate. He has everything to lose by endorsing wrong and little to gain from jumping in too early.

This does offer me one last chance to use my favorite Dodd picture of the cycle; I encourage everyone to read the caption for what will probably be one last time. (Dodd is in no way a VP candidate, let’s nip that in the bud; cabinet possibility, sure.)

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Live Blog Of New Hampshire Democratic Party 100 Club Dinner (Live From Milford!)

[Update: we've put up a video containing our commentary on the evening, check it out...]

Tonight, the New Hampshire Democratic Party is having its annual 100 Club Dinner. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich will be delivering speeches at this event. You can watch it live on C-SPAN or online beginning at 6:30pm.

5:00: We’re inside the building and press and guests are funneling in slowly. There’s a sizable Obama contingent outside that chanted as the staff here unreasonably forced press (and us!) to wait outside seemingly indefinitely, and we saw what looked like a small mountain of Clinton supporters down the road. All 5 remaining Democratic candidates plus Howard Dean are scheduled to make an address tonight.

5:32: The place is really starting to fill up now and people are eating.

5:51: The guests at this event are staring at the people in the press area as though there’s something quite magical going on in here. (press area pictured right)

6:38: And … the program is about to get underway, to the upbeat tunes of 2001: A Space Odyssey. Nothing inspires more than monkeys arbitrarily starting to worship a giant pole simply because it’s there. For the record, all the candidates plus Howard Dean and the NH Dem Representatives (both who have endorsed Obama) and Gov. Lynch (whose wife has endorsed Clinton) are slated to speak.

6:49: They’re running the Space Odyssey video again! And once again comparing their primary to a bunch of monkey worshiping a pole that suddenly appears; worse, this appears to have been done without a lick of irony.

6:54: There’s a lot of implicit comparisons of Obama to JFK, who was the first guest of a 100 Club Dinner; JFK is referred to in opening remarks as “the young senator from Massachusetts.”

7:00: After the pledge of allegiance and national anthem, it’s time for awards.

7:05: Jeanne Shaheen is introduced just before John Lynch and she gets a significantly lower amount of applause than Lynch. Effect of Obama backers not cheering as loudly?

7:06: Lynch speaks briefly, introducing his wife who has endorsed Clinton. Touts New Hampshire as first primary. Thanks Dodd and Biden for their commitment and they are apparently here! They get a solid round of applause. Lynch continues, touting retail politics.

7:11: Former Rep. Richard Swett speaks, touting the large crowd and Jeanne Shaheen’s run for Senate.

7:19: Donors are recognized, with Obama’s campaign getting a massive ovation, and no one else cheering much; the Clinton campaign was listed second, and its people were not ready to cheer, apparently. But the Obama people have made their presence felt, in a volley past the Clinton’s campaign’s bow.

7:24: Edwards is not coming. Apparently he feels this event is too much of a bigwig event. It’s a party fundraiser, though, and it’s hard to see how allowing all the focus to be on Clinton and Obama will help him.

7:26: Howard Dean speaks. After noting his nostalgia, he talks up the big turnout, then quoting Reagan - yes Reagan - in saying it is “morning in America” once again. That should get some people huffy. Talks up 80% of youth going to Democrat caucus in Iowa, and Democratic caucuses being large. Makes a joke about him not going on lists of states, and strikes a pose. Says that the Democrats are mostly the same, there are no significant differences. That has to help Obama, right? Says that Republicans and Bush are the biggest problem. Says Hastert and Lott resigned to avoid being subject to new ethics law for lobbyists. Talks up Republican attack machine and the problems with certain voting boxes, specifically citing my home county, Cuyahoga county in Ohio. Says 3,000 people are here, and that constant involvement is what gets the vote out. Says he wants to go back to person to person contact. That’s … ummm … a bit outdated. I say that as someone who has seen canvassers up close. Says greatness has to be earned and more clichés, such as America being “healed.” Says there are no red states or blue states, just … purple states. (Obama almost had his penultimate line stolen). Says Martin Luther King would be impressed at the makeup of the Democratic candidates. Compares GOP candidates to the 50s, and finally calls for Democrats to elect the future. That speech has to make Obama’s camp smile.

7:40: Another round of applause for Dodd and Biden. Another round of applause for Dick Gephardt. And also a round of applause for Elizabeth Edwards, who is here. I’m baffled as to why John Edwards is not here; he headlined it 3 years ago!

7:45: We’ve reached the “Attack John Sununu” portion of the program. We’ll return when something we care about does.

7:50: Paul Hodes, who has endorsed Obama, speaks. He mentions Obama themes such as unity and change, while attacking Bush with Edwards-esque rhetoric. One forced applause plus a bunch of screaming into the microphone = headache for me. Obama people force some applause at the end.

7:56: State democrats are here and happy to be in the majority.

8:00: Carol Shea-Porter, another Obama endorser, speaks. She talks broadly about Democrats being right for people of all parties. Talks about the value of SCHIP while remaining otherwise neutral.

8:05: More state democrats are here and, shockingly, still happy to be in the majority.

8:08: Dennis Kucinich is here! His theme is that he is “Waiting on the world to change.” He’s still waiting, apparently. His wife escorts him to the podium, apparently to remind everyone that she is good looking. He says he skipped Iowa on purpose because New Hampshire is so awesome. Says no one should have to settle, and that funding the war is the problem, and they can be home in three months. Says he is “totally aligned with the mainstream aspirations of the Democratic Party.” Cites ending the war immediately and canceling the Patriot Act immediately, and that Bush and Cheney should be punished, and that there is no statute of limitations for war crimes. Gets a decent round of applause in a wild flurry; needless to say, none of those applauding will be voting for him. He calls for the “old time religion” of FDR and a new WPA. Talks specifically about the shipbuilding industry, as if its the 1830s and the height of the Clipper ship era. Gets silence when he talks about how he is going to solve things, but gets applause at mentioning that problems exist. He has a tone to him that makes him sound like a robot. Finishes with a call for impeachment against Bush and Cheney, as he whips out a pocket Constitution Byrd-style. Says he and everyone is viable.

8:19: Hillary Clinton is introduced to audio problems with her music. I’m not sure what the introduction music is, but perhaps it is appropriate that there was a glitch in the beginning. She gets a lot of whistles; there’s no cheering, just whistling. Again, not to go all John McClane, but this is not helping my headache. Asks a series of questions if NH is “ready” for a president … which is her new slogan. Says we know the country can do better and be part of the change. Says America needs a POTUS who is a champion; She uses her ’some people want to fight for change, others hope’ line … and gets a significant amount of boos, as she segues into experience. She’s really doubling down on experience. Now she moves on to criticizing Bush, and criticizes Bush for being divisive, and creating a sense of fatalism, and that America has to try. Now she’s adapting a lot of Obama’s themes, but just glossing over them, as she talks about saving the middle class, specifically through health care. Says her plan is politically viable and will cover everyone by bringing business and labor together. Says that “those” who offer “virtual health care” leave people out. This is BLATANTLY misleading, as she says really sick people cannot be left out, giving multiple examples; Obama’s plan leaves uncovered healthy young adults who would simply willingly not enter the plan. No one who is sick or unhealthy would not apply. Krugman for one is attacking this problem from Clinton’s side honestly; Clinton’s stump speech does not. Moreover, people are realizing that. She moves on to energy, and gives a laundry list of things that can be done. She then moves on to Iraq. She talks at length on Iraq, emphasizing how difficult and dangerous the situation is, and that every American, including civilians, need to come home, and that Iraqis who put their lives on the line for Americans need to be helped as well. She moves on to health care for troops. Concludes by saying that there cannot be reliance on false hopes, that there must be a president who is ready on Day 1. (She asks this as a rhetorical question, and an Obama chant breaks out! She quickly tries to recover and speak over it.) She says that she has taken plenty of fire from Republicans and is still standing, which gets her crowd back into it. Talks about finding common ground with Republicans when possible, and that she has stood her ground when she had to. Says she is running for President to give back. Does anyone believe that? No one runs for President for that reason. Says that she will make history, and that wraps her speech up as Bill and Chelsea join her very briefly on stage. Oh, apparently her theme song is the Dixie Chicks “Ready to run.” Interesting that the lyrics such as “You see it feels like I’m starting to care, And I’m gonna be ready this time.” And it includes nothing about winning. …

8:44: People are being told to take their seats before *Richardson speaks. (As the Clinton clan leaves, I am sure.) *Oops. Not Obama

8:45: Richardson is introduced to the U2 song “Where the Streets Have No Name.” Apparently he wants to run and hide and tear down walls that hold him inside. Either that or he is seriously concerned about poison rain. He speaks, introducing his wife first, for one of the only times this campaign. Richardson jumps in and says that the war is the only issue that matters, and that it is the only thing he wants to talk about. He blames the press and the president. A Hillary supporter near me blames Richardson for Clinton losing in Iowa. Richardson says his plan gets all the troops out in one year, and talks about his plan. Somewhere in this massive room, Joe Biden is rolling his eyes. Richardson says troops cannot stay until 2013. Talks about his experience as a negotiator and diplomat as being crucial to make this change possible. He then moves on from Iraq, breaking his promise to only talk about one issue that he made only 7 minutes ago, talking about health care and education, and how bad things are in America right now, including NCLB. He gets polite applause through his speech. I’m not sure Richardson’s plan to increase minimum salaries for teachers in Constitutional. As Richardson lists other initiatives and talks about people of NH being open to other candidates, a MASSIVE exodus of people starts moving across the ballroom - apparently Obama people getting ready to storm the stage. It’s pretty damn rude. Richardson is unfazed, and says that the national media should not decide the election. Says that turnout of Iowa showed desire for change. No sooner does Richardson’s exit music start than Obama chants start up. It’s slightly annoying … but somewhat charming at the same time. It’s a thin line where they risk turning into such zealots that they’re ignored, ala Paulites.

9:00: There’s an amazing amount of Obama supporters; This is an Obama event at this point. And it should be clear … these people did not buy tickets yesterday. These are $100 tickets that sold out long ago. His organization has constantly outperformed others at competitive events. I cannot stress enough how much Obama turnout there is here.

9:01: The crowd is forced to take their seats before they can proceed .. and the massive crowd starts booing. In the end it probably just made his crowd that much more noticed.

9:02: Obama comes out to City of Blinding Lights by U2. “The more you see the less you know.” Hopefully that will not be prophetic. He clearly gets the best reception of the evening. The crowd is standing for his speech. Says that in four days, they can prove the cynics wrong. The press is more attentive now than they were for Clinton’s speech. He gives the unity schtick .. and the place goes nuts. He talks about lifting the country up, not bringing each other down; with a lead, that’s a fairly effective shield against a lot of attacks Clinton might otherwise launch. Obama touts his ability to bring youth in Iowa, and how he watched it. Touts his specific support among youth, women, independents, and republicans. Cites Hodes and Shea-Porter. Says he ran because that America is on the cusp of forming a new majority in the country. (A far more compelling reason than Clinton’s, if as idealistic). Talks about how the majority can help solve the problems of Bush, but festered “long before” Bush took over. Attacks lobbyists; this is far more effective without Edwards hitting him on the issue. Another chant breaks out. Talks about challenging interests (Detroit, Wall Street). Moves to health care, and talks about his mother reading insurance forms on her death bed in a hospital bed, and that he understands that pain of seeing a loved one suffer. That’s a new story. Says that the reform will be done by the end of his first term. Says he will end the “tyranny of oil” and create a “green economy.” Talks about Iraq and Afghanistan, and closing Guantanamo. Talks about being a President who taught the Constitution. Talks about a politics of hope. Mentions the “fierce urgency of now.” Says the broken system cannot solve the problems of today. Moves on to talking about how people are calling for experience; says they are saying that entails boiling hope away; says that argument does not work because the real gamble would be to have the same people in the same system in Washington and expecting new results. Says that results do not come from more anger or “turning up the heat” but from more light. Says that working across the aisle when you know who you are gets things done. He is unbelievable with a crowd. Moves on to those who make fun of him for talking about hope. Talks about hope not being blind optimism or ignorance of roadblocks but the “opposite of that.” Says he knows how hard it will be to deliver health care, global warming, and environmental change is difficult. Cites his experience on the streets and as a civil rights attorney. Says a small group of folks believing is how great things start - the revolution, the civil war, world war two, and the civil rights movement. I heard a different version of this speech yesterday and right now it sounds completely fresh. Says this moment is the chance for this generation to make its mark on history. Cites hunger and thirst for something, which is reminiscent of the biblical line ‘hunger and thirst for righteousness.’ Says that his administration would heal the country, and concludes with the loudest applause of the night. Impressive speech thematically and how it was delivered, especially considering he gave a similar speech yesterday!

And that does it, we’ll be back later tonight and tomorrow with more from New Hampshire.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (01/03/08)

This podcast covers the results of the Iowa Caucuses. We discuss the significance of Huckabee’s victory, the state of the Republican race after Iowa and we also dissect Obama’s victory and analyze the rest of the Democratic race.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Biden, Dodd Officially Drop Out

Both candidates dropped out after a miserable showing at the Caucuses. Clearly. though, both did a lot to their resumes in running, particularly Biden. We wish both Senators well. …

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Chris Dodd Drops Out Of Race

After finishing in 7th place in tonight’s Caucus (”Uncommitted” finished 6th), Senator Chris Dodd, as expected, has dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president a few hours after the conclusion of the Iowa Caucuses. I’ve been saying this for months, but Dodd would have been significantly better off, dropping out of the race in the Fall and endorsing a candidate of his choosing.

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Live Blog Of Concession/Winning Speeches

9:00: Reminder, Dems: Obama, Edwards, Clinton; GOP: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson/McCain/Paul

9:09: Andrea Mitchell calls it a “remarkably bad outcome for Hillary”

9:10: Matthews says the Clinton comeback begins now.

9:11: John Edwards is making an appearance, smiling; Matthews cites Edwards’ need to win in order to be relevant after Iowa. Elizabeth Edwards introduces him, and thanks everyone.

9:13: Elizabeth Edwards cites their campaign being outspent 6-1 combined. That’s REALLY disingenuous. Edwards speaks, saying that the status quo lost and change won. Essentially declares the death of Clinton.

9:15: Edwards talks about problems with health care, including a girl who was denied coverage of health insurance, and also the man who could not talk for 50 years. He also cites the Maytag plant closing. Cites the Roosevelts and Truman as presidents with backbone. By the way, it’s unclear if the insurance company really was responsible as Edwards claims:

Mark Geragos, attorney for the girl’s family, said he plans to ask the district attorney to press murder or manslaughter charges against CIGNA HealthCare in the case. The insurer “maliciously killed her” because it did not want to bear the expense of her transplant and aftercare, Geragos said. Video Watch as the family takes on CIGNA »

Nataline had been battling leukemia and received a bone marrow transplant from her brother. She developed a complication, however, that caused her liver to fail.

Doctors at UCLA determined she needed a transplant and sent a letter to CIGNA Healthcare on December 11. The Philadelphia-based health insurance company denied payment for the transplant.

On Thursday, about 150 teenagers and nurses protested outside CIGNA’s office in Glendale. As the protesters rallied, the company reversed its decision and said it would approve the transplant.

Despite the reversal, CIGNA said in an e-mail statement before she died that there was a lack of medical evidence showing the procedure would work in Nataline’s case.

“Our hearts go out to Nataline and her family, as they endure this terrible ordeal,” the company said. ” … CIGNA HealthCare has decided to make an exception in this rare and unusual case and we will provide coverage should she proceed with the requested liver transplant.”

9:19: Edwards rails against corporations, including oil companies. Every cliché is hit. He even drops that Elizabeth has breast cancer, and others will too. It’s a litany of sob stories, including homeless veterans. Says America can fix all this.

9:22: Edwards says change won. He’s going on and on, possibly to minimize others getting on 11pm newscasts on the east coast? Just a guess. He hasn’t said much at all.

9:23: Matthews notes that neither Edwards congratulated the victor, and that they did not want to concede in ‘04; the campaign theme song of Kerry kicks in. (The Rising, by Springsteen).

9:25: The Clintons are on stage, with a large group of people including Vilsack, Albright, and Clark. In other words: we still have a lot of support. A ‘Hillary’ chant breaks out as Bill gives a thumbs up. She promises to take the enthusiasm to New Hampshire and ‘it is a great night for Democrats.’ Says this turnout means Democrats will win. She congratulates Obama and Edwards and thanks Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden by name.

9:27: Her demeanor is pitch perfect for such a disappointing night. Pivots to focus on how a winning with a candidate “who can go the distance … and be the best president on day one.” Cites her plans to run a national campaign through the early states, while chiding independents and Republicans who came late to the table.

9:30: Families are good and need to be kept good.

9:32: She is ready to lead. Cites health care and energy. Also cites education reforms. Says she is more optimistic about the country than her campaign. Says a lot of people could not caucus - those in the military. Also says people work at night. This sounds like a line of excuses.

9:34: Thanks the unions across the country who support her. She says the election is about the future (uhm, no crap). And that’s it, and everyone starts hugging each other.

9:37: Huck! He’s ready to go. Chuck Norris is right behind him, and smiling like a cheshire cat. He says he loves Iowa a lot tonight. Thanks everyone who treated him with respect and listened to him. Really humble and personable approach that really works in direct contrast to most of the field. Says his wife will be a great First Lady. Thanks his children.

9:41: Says his campaign starts in Iowa and ends in Washington a year from now. Says money has proven to be overrated. Says that tonight could forever chan gethe political system. (Uhm, probably not.) Says choice was for a change, but change can be for the worse or better.

9:43: The greatest generation can be the next generation. (Another anti-boomer candidate?) Says the election and country is not about him, but tonight will start a “prairie fire” across the country. Says the people are the ruling class in America.

9:45: Huck cites GK Chesterson, a Christian apologetic, and says people must love people behind them not hate those in front of him as Chuck Norris stands directly behind him. Says we must do whatever it takes to do what is right for those in America. Reminds everyone that this is the beginning. Again thanks Iowa.

9:51: Tim Russert looks like he’s been drinking whiskey all day. He’s staring at Brian Williams a bit uncomfortably.

10:02: Romney spoke at the same time as Huckabee, citing the Olympics as different events having different results.

10:03: Obama takes the stage with his family. They leave and Obama takes the podium.

10:04: Says the cynics have been proven wrong. He’s in ‘big speech’ mode. Cites New Hampshire next, and the rest of America after that. Cites the big turnout, and Democrats, Republicans, and Independents standing together for change and for one country. Starts echoing the 04 Convention speech with uniting red states and blue states. Says time has come to take power back from lobbyists and for an honest president. Says he can be that president if New Hampshire gives him the same support. Unbelievable atmosphere compared to the other campaigns. Says he will make health care affordable and available to everyone. Promises a middle class tax cut. Speaks of freeing America from the tyranny of oil. The speech is focused on him as a president, and mixing that message with his campaign theme.

10:11: Thanks organizers and precinct captains; no one else thanked them. Thanks his wife, “the closer on the campaign trail.”

10:12: Says it was not done for him, but for American ideals and fighting against odds for what people believe in.

10:13: Says nights like this justify the hard times in a campaign, and this is the moment it all began. Says the improbably and “what Washington said was inevitable” are torn down. Says politics of cynicism were beaten down. Says hope is not blind, but that something better is available if it is worked for. Says hope was what inspired the American Revolution, World War II, and the civil rights movement.

10:17: Obama says it’s about the USA and wraps it up to thunderous applause.

10 :18: Quickly over to Biden, who is dropping out. He thanks film makers and those that are supporting him. Thanks his wife.

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Dodd: Fourth Or Bust

The end looks nigh for this cycle’s Bob Graham, as per Ben Smith:

Sen. Chris Dodd, who moved his family to Iowa in an effort to make a strong showing in the caucus, has told Fox News that he would be “going to Hartford tomorrow” if he doesn’t finish stronger than fourth place tonight, my colleague Martin Kady II reports.

Dodd seems to be liked by many but loved by few. He probably would have been better running this type of campaign four years ago.

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Iowa Caucuses Open Thread

Topic: The Iowa Caucuses…talk amongst yourselves…

Read more

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Any More Deals After Kucinich Backed Obama?

There’s some indications that Obama could be backed by Richardson or Biden. (Via Yglesias and Chris Bowers)

The presumptive reason for Biden, according to Yglesias and general conventional wisdom, is that Richard Holbrook is pretty much a shoo-in to be Clinton’s Secretary of State, and that is still a position Biden covets. (Or, Biden could be the gravitas-adding VP pick, although I think the presumption of change in Obama’s campaign will lead to a choice of someone more of an outsider or new to Washington.)

Yglesias seems to suggest Richardson could be Obama’s VP pick … but given Richardson’s mixed records and proximity for gaffes recently (calling for Musharraf to resign?) Obama could foreseeably pick either of them for a cabinet slot … but VP? I’m guessing Obama has enough baggage as it is; he needs a safe choice for VP, and Richardson especially is not a safe pick. The primary campaign has not even gotten into his record, which is almost as mixed as Mitt Romney’s.

Moreover, at this late juncture, it will be hard for candidates to effectively control their supporters anyways. I think it will be what deals the people on the ground make (what Hitchens has called ‘mini-bribes’) and not what decisions the candidates make.

As it is, polls seem to indicate Edwards has a huge advantage over Obama and Clinton in this area.

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Sunday Morning Talk Shows: Huckabee, Obama, Thompson, Clinton, McCain, Edwards, Biden, Dodd

Last Sunday Before the Caucuses and we’re bringing back the quick run down of who is where this Sunday morning:

Meet the Press: Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama

This Week: Hillary Clinton, John McCain

Face the Nation: John Edwards

Fox News Sunday: Fred Thompson

Late Edition: Joe Biden, Chris Dodd

See here for a comprehensive rundown of everybody else.

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You Know You’re In The Second Tier When …

. . . you need someone from the West Wing to campaign for you in Iowa. It’s hard to say you’re about to topple the front runners and at the same time call Richard Schiff in to help.

And you know you’re in the third tier when you can’t get someone from the West Wing to campaign for you.

Bonus Context:

Jon Stewart: Now listen, what do you think about, you definitely also have a little bit of that Hollywood flair. You’re gonna start drawing the celebrities. Oprah is gonna throw a fundraiser.

Obama: Right.

Jon: That doesn’t seem good. I still remember Howard Dean in Iowa, with Martin Sheen introducing him, quoting an Indian poet to a caucus group of literally like AFL–CIO workers, and just seeing their faces like this: “Huh?? What is he talking about?”

Obama: Well, you know, you don’t use folks in that way. I think Oprah’s support is wonderful. I think having the celebrities want to do stuff for you — but the truth is, in Iowa and New Hampshire, people just want to talk to you. They want to lift the hood, they want to kick the tires, they want to look you in the eye, they want to get a sense, are you telling the truth? There’s nobody that can do that job other than you.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (12/27/07)

This podcast covers (1) the assassination of Bhutto; (2) Iowa Caucus process; (3) Democratic and Republican candidates closing strategies.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Daily Democratic Briefing (December 27, 2007)

We will be posting briefings for each party today through the Iowa caucuses.

Barack Obama

Obama gave a major speech in Des Moines today that will launch the closing portion of his campaign. First Read has excerpts from it, with Obama focusing on records of achievement in comparison to Clinton and Obama.

Obama is focusing on women to close the gap nationally.

Obama had a somber moment with a veteran after gently teasing him for wearing an Obama T-shirt.

Tons of surrogates are in Iowa this week for all the campaigns; that includes Michelle Obama and her mother as well.

An editorial in the Washingotn Times by Grace Vuoto says Obama is electable, and Clinton alone would succeed in uniting the right.

A Democratic 527 is running ads in Iowa against Obama for voting too often with Bush.

Bill Richardson

Some of Richardson’s volunteers in Iowa are beginning to quit. Also in this piece, Richardson faces a stark choice after the Iowa and New Hampshire races; he either must decide to get out of the race before Jan. 15, when a New Mexico legislative session is slated to begin, or decide to stay in the race through Super Tuesday and likely lose further control of government in New Mexico.

Richardson touted his NRA endorsement while also toeing the Democratic line (nowadays) by saying he would support the renewal of the federal ban on assault weapons “only if it works.”

Richardson talked about his plan to increase education funding and to focus on the arts in the curriculum.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd is still trying, and emphasizing how much time he’s spending in Iowa.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich’s presidential campaigns continue to ramp pressure on him in his district in Cleveland, where he faces four primary challengers; he’s likely to still be re-elected however, as the anti-Kucinich vote will be split.

Kucinich answered ten questions, in part by whipping out a pocket Constitution.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton has strong support in Massachusetts.

Clinton called the Bush Administration ‘embarrassing’ and touted her own bipartisan record.

Clinton launched a new ad in Iowa, that tried to emphasize how she is the right candidate for tough times.

In this notebook, Clinton’s emphasis on attacking the health insurance companies rather than her opponents is detailed.

Clinton said that she was not a co-president, and also says that having Bill Clinton on the trail is not a mixed blessing.

Tom Vilsack and his wife Christie are joining the Clintons in campaigning in Iowa over the next week.

Joe Biden

Biden is getting some buzz among the undecideds in Iowa. Along those lines, Biden tells Roger Simon that he is supremely confident that he will be the story come January 3rd; he dings nearly every other candidate in the process, including citing Edwards people jumping to him; fighting off Biden might be Edwards gravest concern right now. His crowds are large enough to be viable

John Edwards

Jim Geraghty raises an interesting question concerning a disagreement on Pakistan between Benazir Bhutto and John Edwards.

Edwards has a new ad up in Iowa featuring his wife Elizabeth.

Edwards said that his southern voice is similar to that of Clinton and Carter, and he would help Democratic candidates everywhere if he were at the top of the ticket, implying that Clinton and Obama would not.

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Candidate Statements on the Assassination of Benazir Bhutto

Bill Richardson:

“Benazir Bhutto was a courageous woman. Her death, and the deaths of so many of her supporters, is more than just a tragedy. It is a testament to the will of the Pakistani people to see democracy restored. My thoughts and prayers are with the families of those who died today.

“Ms. Bhutto knew the dangers to her safety. But she would not be intimidated. We also must not be intimidated.

A leader has died, but democracy must live. The United States government cannot stand by and allow Pakistan’s return to democracy to be derailed or delayed by violence.

We must use our diplomatic leverage and force the enemies of democracy to yield: President Bush should press Musharraf to step aside, and a broad-based coalition government, consisting of all the democratic parties, should be formed immediately. Until this happens, we should suspend military aid to the Pakistani government. Free and fair elections must also be held as soon as possible.

It is in the interests of the US that there be a democratic Pakistan that relentlessly hunts down terrorists. Musharraf has failed, and his attempts to cling to power are destabilizing his country. He must go.”

Hillary Clinton:

“I am profoundly saddened and outraged by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a leader of tremendous political and personal courage. I came to know Mrs. Bhutto over many years, during her tenures as Prime Minister and during her years in exile. Mrs. Bhutto’s concern for her country, and her family, propelled her to risk her life on behalf of the Pakistani people. She returned to Pakistan to fight for democracy despite threats and previous attempts on her life and now she has made the ultimate sacrifice. Her death is a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence.

“Let us pray that her legacy will be a brighter, more hopeful future for the people she loved and the country she served. My family and I extend my condolences and deepest sympathies to the victims and their families and to the people of Pakistan.”

John McCain:

“I was deeply saddened today to learn about the death of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. My deepest condolences go out to the family and supporters of this remarkable woman, an individual who paid the ultimate price for her embrace of moderation and rejection of extremism.

“The death of Benazir Bhutto underscores yet again the grave dangers we face in the world today and particularly in countries like Pakistan, where the forces of moderation are arrayed in a fierce battle against those who embrace violent Islamic extremism.

“Given Pakistan’s strategic location, the international terrorist groups that operate from its soil, and its nuclear arsenal, the future of that country has deep implications for the security of the United States and its allies. America must stand on the right side of this ongoing struggle.

“In my numerous visits to Pakistan - to Islamabad, to Peshawar, even to the tribal areas of Waziristan - I have seen first hand the many challenges that face the political leadership there, challenges so graphically portrayed by today’s tragedy. There are, in Pakistan, brave individuals who seek to lead their country away from extremism and instability and into the light of a better day. America, I believe, must do all we can to support them.”

Mitt Romney:

“We are still learning the details of today’s tragic events in Pakistan, but this is a stark reminder that America must not only stay on high alert, but remain actively engaged across the globe. Pakistan has long been a key part in the war against extremism and radical jihadists. For those who think Iraq is the sole front in the War on Terror, one must look no further than what has happened today. America must show its commitment to stand with all moderate forces across the Islamic world and together face the defining challenge of our generation – the struggle against violent, radical jihadists.

“At this difficult time, our thoughts and prayers go to the family of Benazir Bhutto, and to all the people of Pakistan who are fighting against extremist forces that would commit such heinous acts as the whole world has witnessed today.”

Barack Obama:

“I am shocked and saddened by the death of Benazir Bhutto in this terrorist atrocity. She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world,” said United States Senator Barack Obama.

Rudy Giuliani:

“The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a tragic event for Pakistan and for Democracy in Pakistan. Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law. Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere — whether in New York, London, Tel Aviv or Rawalpindi — is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists’ War on Us.”

Mike Huckabee:

“I am deeply troubled by the news accounts this morning of Pakistani opposition leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in a suicide attack. This is devastating news for the people of Pakistan, and my prayers go out to them as we follow developments regarding this dire situation.

”The terrible violence surrounding Pakistan’s upcoming election stands in stark contrast to the peaceful transition of power that we embrace in our country through our Constitution. On this sad day, we are reminded that while our democracy has flaws, it stands as a shining beacon of hope for nations and people around the world who seek peace and opportunity through self-government.”

John Edwards

“Benazir Bhutto was a brave and historic leader for Pakistan. Her assassination is a sad and solemn event, and our hearts go out to her family and to the Pakistani people. But we will not let this contemptible, cowardly act delay the march of progress in Pakistan for a single second.

“I have seen firsthand in Pakistan, and in meetings with Prime Minister Bhutto and President Musharraf, the instability of the country and the complexity of the challenges they face. At this critical moment, America must convey both strength and principle. We should do everything in our power to help bring the perpetrators of this heinous act to justice and to ensure that Bhutto’s movement toward democracy continues.”

Joe Biden

“This is a terrible day. My heart goes out to Benazir Bhutto’s family, friends and followers.

“Like her father before her, Benazir Bhutto worked her whole life – and gave her life – to help Pakistan become a democratic, secular and modern Muslim country. She was a woman of extraordinary courage who returned to Pakistan in the face of death threats and even after an assassination attempt the day of her return, she did not flinch. It was a privilege to know her these many years and to call her a friend.

“I am convinced Ms. Bhutto would have won free and fair elections next week. The fact that she was by far Pakistan’s most popular leader underscores the fact that there is a vast, moderate majority in Pakistan that must have a clear voice in the system. Her assassination makes it all the more urgent that Pakistan return to a democratic path.

“This fall, I twice urged President Musharraf to provide better security for Ms. Bhutto and other political leaders – I wrote him before her return and after the first assassination attempt in October. The failure to protect Ms. Bhutto raises a lot of hard questions for the government and security services that must be answered.

“I know that Benazir’s followers will be tempted to lash out in anger and violence. I urge them to remain calm – and not play into the hands of the forces of destruction. I urge Pakistan’s leaders to open a fully accountable and transparent investigation. We must find out who was behind this and bring those responsible to justice. And the United States should offer any assistance necessary, including investigative teams, to get to the bottom of this horror.

“The way to honor Benazir Bhutto is to uphold the values for which she gave her life: democracy, moderation and social justice. I join with the Pakistani people in mourning the loss of a dear friend.”

Chris Dodd:

“Today’s news from Pakistan is both shocking and saddening. As a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, I have had the opportunity to travel to Pakistan and come to know Former Prime Minister Bhutto very well over the years. I spoke to her personally several weeks ago and have stayed in close contact with her since. She was a respected leader who played an important part in moving Pakistan toward democracy.

“As we recognize the loss of a leader today, we must also recognize the implication of today’s tragedy to the security of the region and to that of the United States.

“At this critical time we must do everything in our power to help Pakistan continue the path toward democracy and full elections. Our first priority must be to ensure stability in this critical nuclear state.

“The United States should also stand ready to provide assistance in investigating this heinous act. And as Pakistan perpetrators to justice, it should also demonstrate that it will not allow such violence to derail democracy and proceed with elections in a timely manner.”

Dennis Kucinich:

“This is a very dangerous moment for the world. Prime Minister Bhuttorepresented the forces of reform and the hope for an end to repression in a troubled region, and her death is a major loss to those efforts.”

“This terrible tragedy also underscores the need for the United States to adopt a new foreign policy toward the entire region because our current policy is all wrong. Our interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan has opened wide the doors of repression and violence. At this very moment, we should be working with leaders of the region to convene a meeting at the highest levels to begin a new effort towards stabilization and peace.”

“The United States must take a new direction in Pakistan and throughout the region. I met her several times, both in Washington and New York. She was deeply and genuinely dedicated to Pakistan. This is a tragic loss.”

Mike Bloomberg:

“Today all New Yorkers, including the more than 100,000 who can trace their heritage to Pakistan, are saddened to learn about the assassination of Pakistan’s Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Hers was a voice for democracy, and the silencing of it — by such brutal means - is a shock to us all. Ms. Bhutto’s death — and the deaths of the many other Pakistanis who were killed today simply for expressing their views - is a great loss for friends of democracy and for everyone who is united in the fight against terror. It’s also a grim reminder that many people consider the freedoms we cherish a threat. The perpetrators of this violent act must be brought to justice, and it is my hope that President Musharraf will follow through on free and fair elections in January as a testament to Ms. Bhutto’s legacy.”

Any other comments by other candidates will be added as soon as possible.

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