Mark Warner to Give Dem Keynote Address

Like Barack Obama in 2004, former virginia Gov. Mark Warner has an overwhelming lead to take a formerly Republican seat in the Senate. And now he is giving the Democratic keynote address.

Nate Silver:

Contrary to the reporting of some outlets, Hillary Clinton had never formally been guaranteed the keynote slot — rather, she had merely been guaranteed a prime-time speaking slot on Tuesday. But the perception out there was that Tuesday would be “her” night, and we can expect some growling from the PUMAs about Hillary being snubbed.

One would hope, however, that the Obama campaign was not so callous as to give Warner the nod without vetting/negotiating their position with the Clintons — perhaps in exchange for the prime-time slot that Bill was given on Wednesday night. To have had Hillary keynoting on Tuesday and then Bill headlining on Wednesday — he will surely upstage the VP’s speech — might have risked a Clinton overdose. There are risks in doing things this way too, however.

Biggest loser in all of this? Tim Kaine, who if given the VP slot, might seem like sloppy seconds next to Warner.

Silver also concludes that this might mean good things for Kathleen Sebelius as VP. This seems to eliminate Kaine as a possibility, and it also underlines the themes of change and being a Washington outsider.

Eve Fairbanks is underwhelmed:

When the Obama press-team email “WARNER TO DELIVER CONVENTION KEYNOTE ADDRESS” hit my inbox at 7:15 this morning, for a minute I actually thought, “Oh my God! It’s a coup! They’ve gotten John Warner to break ranks!”, until I clicked through and saw that, of course, the Warner in question was Mark.

I’m sure the charming, youthful, up-and-coming Warner will give a nicely charming, youthful, and up-and-coming speech in Denver. But I also think my reaction reflects something about Mark Warner: he’s a little forgettable, especially after he suddenly begged off of what seemed like an inevitable run for the top this year. I know he’s supposed to be the Next Big Thing in Democratic politics, but hasn’t that been true for a while now? Will he ever stop hovering around “Next” and make a pass at being the Big Thing proper?

Jim Geraghty takes the opportunity to hit Kaine, and to chide Warner for avoiding unpopular fights:

The Post quotes a Kaine source as saying the governor thinks he’ll get “the silver medal” in the veep race.

I am not quite convinced that that would be the decisive factor, as opposed to, say, inanely inaccurate statements in defense of Obama in recent weeks. After all, two Virginians gave the response to the President’s state of the union two years in a row, Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb.

At the 2004 GOP convention, Rudy Giuliani spoke Monday night and George Pataki spoke Thursday before President Bush (in probably one of his best speeches ever). Bloomberg spoke as well. A multitude of New Yorkers didn’t seem all that inappropriate for a convention in New York City.

All in all, for a Democrat, Mark Warner isn’t that bad, as a speaker or as a face of the party. Or at the very least, as governor, he was very, very careful to avoid unpopular fights.

Lynn Sweet laughs at anyone who thought Clinton would be giving the keynote:

The way these things work is that there are convention speakers and then there are people officially designated as keynoters. Such will be the case at the Democratic convention in Denver. With some fanfare on Sunday, some big name speakers were announced, including on Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). If you by chance thought she was the keynoter, you jumped to a conclusion. The keynoter, unveiled on Wednesday, is former Virginia Gov. and senate candidate Mark Warner.

Marc Ambinder noted two days ago how close Mark Warner could have been to running for President (and losing, since he would not have gotten the black vote that Obama got):

If Edwards’s affair had been revealed earlier, such as, say, right after it began, Mark Warner might have stayed in the presidential race. Indeed, if Mark Warner had decided to run for president, then he might have filled the anti-establishment void that Barack Obama jumped into. If, If, if.

I’m generally not a big fan of reading too much into keynote speakers. They generally have very little impact on the election. The tea leaves may indicate something, but it’s generally something very obvious. The obvious facts are these:

1. Tim Kaine was never the favorite for VP, and Mark Warner did not want to be VP.
2. Mark Warner shares a lot of traits with Barack Obama that Barack Obama feels are very important.
3. Mark Warner is from a swing state and is going to win his election going away.

I’m sure there will be some Clinton supporter unrest, but that seems to be inevitable at this point. It’s more important for Obama to emphasize what he is for than to worry about the remnants of the Clinton coalition getting upset at any particular position.

PS: Consider Sebelius my official VP pick, with Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the dark horse candidate (if he agrees).

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Hillary to Headline The Second Night of the Democratic Convention

The Obama campaign announced today that Hillary Clinton will be his featured speaker, the second night of the Democratic Convention.

She will be speaking on the 88th Anniversary of the Woman’s Sufferage movement.  The next day Obama will be accepting the democratic nomination for President - the 40th anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King’s “I Have A Dream” speech.

While the theme for 2008 might be change, it seems the Democrats are also intent on emphasizing history.

CORRECTION: She will not be the keynote speaker. -john

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Presidential Candidates As Batman Super Villains

With all the silly political talk of comparing the Bush Administration to Batman, I thought I’d take a look on the lighter side and compare various Presidential candidates to different Batman villains. This isn’t serious political analysis, but dammit, I have this site as a forum and I intend to use it. (And frankly, if it’s good enough of a topic for Wall Street Journal editors, It’s good enough for me.) I picked super villains arbitrarily. I don’t want to get into a “who is Batman and who is evil” argument. That’s just boring.

Barack Obama as Harvey “Two Face” Dent: The idea that spawned this post. While others are doing strange things like comparing Dick Cheney to Batman or something like that, given that the arch of the story is the rise and fall of newcomer and beacon of hope DA Harvey Dent, I’m surprised there’s not more comparisons between the two. There’s this article, sure. But that seems more intent on criticizing platitudes than it does at looking at something deeper: are figures of hope like Obama and Dent doomed to failure? Clearly they are doomed to dim. Wile the article criticizes Obama for lack of particular details, it’s ultimately Dent’s drive for only results that dooms him. When pushed towards the edge by his horrific scaring and in TDK the (spoiler!) death of Rachel Dawes, Dent is concerned only with the ends, not with the means, of resolving problems. One gets the feeling that more contemplation on platitudes would have helped him, not hurt him. So I think Obama differs in that respect. On the other hand, that side of Dent always existed; it was just hidden by both his meteoric rise and previous success. After all, anyone can keep their secrets hidden while succeeding.

Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton as Ra’s al Ghul and Talia al Ghul: In the comics, they are father and daughter; here they are husband and wife. Let’s just gloss over that difference. In the comics, Ra’s could not be killed thanks to the Lazarus Pits; where he could rise from the dead. Surely, this reminds everyone of the numerous times that Bill himself rose from what was surely political death. The intrigue between the al Ghuls rivals the reported intrigue between Bill and Hillary. Bill has actively and inadvertently hurt Hillary in the past, as any sane person would admit. In the comics, this antagonism even leads Talia and Batman to sleep together. Similarly, Hillary and Obama used to be close allies, with Hillary even fundraising for Obama at one point during his Senate run, the political equivalent of sex if there is any. Moreover, this also means that the normal Clinton confidantes are known as the League of Shadows. Just as in Batman Begins, they are regarded as formidable by Ra’s, but in the end do absolutely nothing to help him, and only allow the enemy to take him down. One can imagine Obama as Batman goading Bill to please bring on four pawns (Mark Penn, Harold Ickes, James Carville, and Terry McAulliffe) instead of just four. Although in reality, it’s because the four will get in each others ways. Of course in this analogy, Hillary as Talia has her own henchwomen, who are none the more competent (Patti Solis Doyle) for the most part. (You’ll never, ever hear me say anything negative about Maggie Williams, mostly because I think she would have me killed for real.)

Tom Tancredo as the Dr. Jonathan Crane, aka The Scarecrow: A candidate who bases his entire campaign on fear. But more than that: Tancredo never intended go through with his campaign. In Batman Begins, Ra’s al Ghul states that Scarecrow believes the plan was to hold the city to ransom. It seems Tancredo’s entire campaign was based on the premise that he would hold the Republican Party hostage unless they elected someone he agreed with. And then they decided not to anyways.

John McCain as the mob. Yes the mob as a whole. Carmine Falcone, Sal Maroni, the whole bunch. In the comics and in the Dark Knight there are factions of the mob, just like they are factions of McCain supporters. Rick Davis, John Weaver, Mike Murphy, Steve Schmidt and others all had their time to be in control before circumstances forced them out, and they all do not like each other, and do not work well together (as seen in the mob scene in The Dark Knight before the Joker arrives. Each of them backstabs and steals from the other, ostensibly to protect the rest). Moreover, there is no control over them from the mob as a whole. McCain is said to be a laissez faire manager just as the mob as a whole favors looser rules. Moreover, McCain absolutely seems to abhor Barack Obama, just as the mob abhors Dent for the type of change he wishes to bring. They want things to change to, but jsut to the way things used to be. They are in a way as old as McCain is. In the movies, the mob is somewhat like McCain in that they refuse to go away. Like the Hydra, you can cut off one head, but two more will sprout in its place. McCain similarly seems to never go away no matter how many times he seems out. Like the mob turning to Joker in the Dark Knight, McCain also seems to have no good plan whatsoever, and changes plans on the fly when things turn out to be different than he thought. Does this say anything about what McCain is doomed to be? I don’t think so. The mob keeps on existing, but never in the same format. It’s certainly not predestined in any movie that the mob will lose. Indeed, the only comparison seems to be that McCain’s campaign could turn out to either be the Joker tormenting the mob’s opponents, or the Joker later threatening the entire barge full of mob associates with death. Also like the mob, McCain functions better when backed into a corner. Lastly, McCain lacks a certain shine and appeal that the mob also lacks in comparison to other “freak” type villains.

Mitt Romney as Oswald Cobblepot, AKA the Penguin: Whereas the Penguin used his ownership of the Iceberg Lounge to gain entry into Gotham, Romney uses his leadership at Bain Capital for much the same purpose. There was always a question of taking what Penguin says as truth: he never comes across as sincere. Romney may not have come across as insincere as Penguin did in, say, Batman Returns, but his numerous problems with flip-flopping caused serious problems for him this cycle. Moreover, his sons are everywhere, just like the Penguins were seemingly in Batman Returns. And just as the Penguin in One Year Later seemingly abandons crime for a legal presence, Romney also aborted what was a previous hard line stance against McCain suddenly to endorse him shortly after Super Tuesday. Most superficially, the Penguin is the high society type criminal compared to all the rest; similarly, Mitt Romney seems the most high society of all the candidates, due in large part to his massive wealth. Note: If there is one supervillain Romney is not, it is Deadshot.

John Edwards as Waylon Jones, aka Killer Croc: The easy choice for Edwards is Two Face. Running a completely different campaign than his first time, being an impressive trial lawyer and all. But in reality, the specific flaws and details of Edwards this cycle have nothing to do with the flaws and defining characteristics of Harvey Dent. Killer Croc is the one villain whose entire existence is almost entirely defined by his appearance: his reasons and justifications for doing what he did are inconsequential, if they exist at all. In this campaign, despite the support he got (which, compared to all but Obama and Clinton, was very substantial), Edwards was doomed because of the perceptions he allowed to be created about himself: the expensive haircuts, the video of him combing his air, etc. Essentially that he came to be defined in the market place as someone really, really vain. Killer Croc is the only Supervillain similarly concerned with image. While Edwards allowed himself to be defined by his, Croc hid and acted out because of his image. And yes, there’s also that small matter of Edwards sneaking around in basements of hotels being stalked. Very Croc-ian.

Dennis Kucinich as Jarvis Tetch, aka the Mad Hatter: Like the Mad Hatter was inspired by Lewis Carroll, Kucinich seems torn out of a different era of politics, one where William Jennings Bryan and Eugene Debs were the constant candidates. The delusion of the Mad Hatter strikes me as exactly the same as the delusion of Kucinich that he can win. His many tricks in the comics are similar to Kucinich’s tricks in politics. Tetch was seemingly run over by a train, only for it to turn out to be a trick; similarly, Kucinich was thought done when he ran the city of Cleveland into bankruptcy, only to emerge years later as a Congressman. Moreover, anyone who is not his supporter wonders why he is still trying. I’ll just end with that there’s something of a physical resemblance as well.

Fred Thompson as Bane: Bane was introduced in the comics as essentially the negative version of Batman: awesome power, awesome intellect. He ended up breaking Bruce Wayne’s back. But I’m not comparing Thompson to that Bane. I’m comparing him to the Bane in Batman and Robin, the horrible fourth batman movie. In that movie, going on the legacy of the comic book Bane, Bane instead becomes an unimportant tool who only serves as muscle; That is regularly noted as one of the worst transitions from comics to movies ever. Thompson similarly entered the race to great fanfare, only to find out he was far too little far too late. Thompson, like Bane, was a supposedly fierce character who when put into a campaign fizzled beyond what anyone expected. The comic Bane is the Fred Thompson that people expected; the awful film version is the one people got. I also have no problem comparing Holly wood to a South American prison. Many suggest that a new interpretation of Bane in the current Batman series could be widely successful; I’m not so sure. Wildly intelligent, strong, and athletic people tend to not sneak around in masks. While the true believers may never admit it, the concept at heart just is not very believable. Note: Just because Thompson and Clayface both were actors does not make them similar in any meaningful way.

Ron Paul as Lennie Adkin, aka Anarky: One sentence in Wikipedia says it all: “Lonnie Machin, a teenage prodigy who, believing in Anarchism, creates improvised gadgets and attempts to subvert government in order to improve society.” Paul himself was not young - the opposite of it - but he certainly attracted youth en masse to his libertarian oriented campaign. And while some would say the dominant Paul story as the racist old newsletters, Paul had no chance to win before or after that story broke. Moreover, Paul’s campaign innovated on the internet in ways few others have ever done, either their notable moneybombs and extensive social networking (and comment bombing). Moreover, the obvious comparison is in the goals of Adkin and Paul: both wanted substantially smaller governments (Adkin clearly went further than Paul). Does Adkin’s failure indicate that Paul’s crusade will never be successful? I don’t think so. There will probably never anytime soon be an extensive, successful libertarian movement, but there can certainly be small steps made in that direction. As a bonus, the character was created in part from Paulite hero and Alan Moore creation V from V for Vendetta.

Rudy Giuliani as Eddie Nashton, aka The Riddler: The Riddler, simply put, is known for leaving riddles after crimes; it’s a dare to be caught, whereas conventional wisdom would normally lead criminals to, you know, try to get away with the crimes they commit. The defining tactical decision of the Giuliani campaign was skipping all the early states that conventional wisdom said he had to at least get a symbolic if not a real victory in for him to be competitive in later states such as Florida. He decided not to. Moreover, the Riddler is covered with question marks all over his suit that give away not only his identity but also his only useful sentence was a Riddle to lead people to him. And while Giuliani’s innumerable references to 9/11 were not at all that pathological, there was clearly something in Joe Biden’s joke that ever Giuliani sentence contained a noun, a a verb, and 9/11. In short, Giuliani was the Riddler in that a lot of his campaign was built on one very simple and repetitive riddle.

Mike Huckabee as Arthur Brown, aka The Cluemaster: The Cluemaster was a failed game show host, and if there’s any four word phrase in Batman history that could define Huckabee, it is ‘failed game show host’ - with the possible exception of ’successful game show host’. The rise of Huckabee’s campaign was in large part due to his charm, and the fall of his campaign was ultimately responsible for his inability to transcend that charm as, say, Ronald Reagan did. The comic plight of Cluemaster is largely not very similar, except that Cluemaster ends up doing surprisingly well and survives a battle even when many thought he was dead from being shot in the chest. Similarly, Huckabee’s campaign refused to die even when it was mathematically impossible for him to win.

Bill Richardson as Catwoman: Get your gender jokes out of the way, I’m not interested in them. Good? Ok. The essence of the history of Catwoman as defined by Wikipedia: “Selina Kyle, starting as a criminal who wore a cat-themed costume and often operated as a burglar, has a love/hate relationship with Batman. For years, she skirted on the edge between villain and antiheroine. However, she has largely reformed in recent years, adopting the role of the guardian of Gotham’s crime-infested East End, though she still comes into conflict with Batman on occasion.” This mirrors Bill Richardson in many ways. First of all, Catwoman is the ultimate resume villain: she’s done it all. For evil, for good, she’s been there. If I had a nickel for every time Richardson said “Look, I’m a governor” this election as to prove what he has done, I would be able to hire someone to write this post. Moreover, Richardson essentially had a love-hate relationship with all his opponents. Clinton supporters liked him when he defended Hillary during debates, and then were outraged when he first appeared to help Obama on Iowa Caucus night and then endorsed Obama after allegedly promising not to. (Obama supporters were the opposite). In the end, Richardson was distrusted by all and left to run hos own state which was shockingly bad in most rankings. Similarly, the most recent Catwoman movie was shockingly bad by even the most generous standards. The Catwoman character, like Richardson, is championed by a small minority who think it is essential to Batman; others think its inclusion in any TDK sequel would be repetitive and boring. I’d be inclined to agree with the latter. The Catwoman character is played out and in the end not very interesting. A jewel thief who is athletic? In the Nolan’s Gotham, that’s about as small and pointless as they come. Meanwhile, just like some predicted Richardson would be a dark horse candidate, once people got a long look at him,  he disappointed; the more the Catwoman character has been exposed in movies, the less popular they have gotten. It’s fair to say that to some extent the character was a failure in Batman Returns and was again surely a disappointment in Catwoman. Also, Catwoman would probably defend cats as innocent ipso facto them being cats, just as Richardson accidentally defended Alberto Gonzalez in the first debate just because he was Hispanic.

Duncan Hunter as Garfield Lynns, aka Firefly: I don’t even have to add comment on this one. Wikipedia on Firefly: “Garfield Lynns, an orphan who became a pyromaniac and has developed a fireproof suit and flamethrower to further pursue his ‘hobby’. He was originally known as a cunning criminal who invented numerous weapons that use light to commit crimes with.” And Eve Fairbanks on Duncan Hunter: “During the trip, we stopped at a gold mine, and Hunter got the idea that the Brobdingnagian ore haulers (whose wheels alone are ten feet tall) would make good troop vehicles in Iraq since they’d resist IEDs. (Possibly true, but they also resist steering.) These kind of pie-in-the-sky, mad-inventor brainstorms earned the nickname “Hunter Specials” among staffers on the committee he chaired, Armed Services. I wondered occasionally if Hunter’s ruthless thrashing in the GOP primaries had dampened some of his unusual style of enthusiasm, but apparently it didn’t. This morning’s Post carried the story of a Hunter Special for the ages: He submitted a request to our embassy in N’Djamena, Chad, to personally hunt and serve wildebeest to needy Darfurian refugees there. ” Wow. Easiest one yet.

Last but never least: The Joker after the jump. ….

Read more

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Morning Thoughts: Polls and Hillary Clinton

Three things this morning:

1. Nate Silver is probably right about why the election is tightening. (As opposed to the implications of racism being spewed by Chris Matthews and Joe Scarborough on MSNBC right now). The extra attention to foreign policy favors McCain, even though Obama is making up ground on that issue.

The upside for Obama though is that after this trip is over, he’s going to spend the rest of the election talking about the economy, while presumably retaining any foreign policy gains he made on this trip. My pointis that the issue focus can change, but the underlying dynamics tend not to, barring major gaffes or major positive moments.

In short, I think this is a short term necessary evil for greater gains for Obama later. (Barring some major other gaffe by him or someone involved in his campaign.)

2. In the counterintuitive thought of the day, does this foreign trip open the door for Hillary Clinton as VP?

The major problem in the past has been that Obama would be overshadowed. But now that he’s had a trip with some (OK, many) talking about presumptive he has seemed, Clinton would no longer overshadow Obama, and indeed it would probably be perceived as a really unselfish move by Obama. Moreover, it would be am implicit shift back to economic issues, while ignoring any questions about whether she was qualified to be President.

There’s still problems, of course: the two are said to not really get along. And that’s a major, major problem. Also, it would undermine Obama’s message of change. But I think the idea makes a lot more sense today than it did a week ago. Obama has enough presidential cache that being overshadowed is probably the least of VP concerns.

That said, supposedly the VP search team is completely separated from the political wing of Obama’s campaign. So this might just end up being hot air.

3. Don’t forget to listen to our interview on Sirius this afternoon. Or if you don’t get Sirius, check out any of our podcasts. We’ll be doing one at some point this weekend.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (07/17/08)

In this podcast, we discuss the New Yorker cover cartoon about Barck Obama, June fundraising figures, Obama’s trip to the Europe and the Middle East, the 08 Bloggers Network and more…

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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One Way Not To Court Hillary Supporters

John McCain does not have good political instincts:

McCain’s strongest denunciation of Obama came when discussing the Democrat’s health care plan, which would cost $50-65 billion per year but would not mandate insurance coverage for all adults, only children.

“My friends, we’ve seen this movie before,” McCain said. “It was called ‘HillaryCare’ back in 1993, and we’re not going to do it again. We’re not going to have the government take over the health care system in America.”

McCain’s best (and perhaps only) chance of winning is to keep a broad divide between Obama and Clinton supporters. Building a bridge between the two camps on Clinton’s signature issue is a very bad move given the political climate.

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Election Law, Hillary Clinton, and Andrew Sullivan

Ever get the feeling that Andrew Sullivan is just as self-consumed as he claims Hillary Clinton is?

For instance, today:

She wants others to pay her 2008 debts but is asking some contributors to move their 2008 donations into her 2012 kitty.

Of course he ignores that Clinton is asking for general election donations to be moved to 2012. And he’s also ignoring that those general election donations cannot legally be used to pay off debts incurred in a primary election.

Not to mention that paying off debts has very little to do with Hillary Clinton and very much to do with vendors that are owed money. Sullivan is not so stupid that he would rather innocent vendors face bankruptcy just so Clinton can be embarrassed, is he?

The point, in short, is that it would behoove Sullivan to understand election law before he starts witch hunting.

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AUDIO: Round Table Discussion With 08 Blogger Network Members…

Following an organizational discussion, some 08 Blogger Network members participated in a round table discussion about the state of the presidential election. Some of the topics discussed were Obama’s FISA vote, McCain’s issues with his base and the political consequences, noteworthy takeaways and much more. Since this discussion took place after an organizational meeting, introductions are not included on the recording. The participating bloggers were iPol, potus2008election, me (2008central.net) and Divided We Stand, United We Fall.

It was a very interesting conversation, take a listen…

If you are interested in joining the 08 Bloggers Network, please email 08bloggers

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Veepstakes News Roundup (July 4, 2008)

If you’re interested in the happenings with the candidates’ search for a running mate, then here’s a roundup of recent news…

• Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced that he will be marrying his current girlfriend; they have been dating for nine months.  Crist is often discussed as a possible running mate for John McCain, however, his bachelorhood combined with rumors of homosexuality have prevented many from seriously discussing him.  This marriage is seen by some as a way to deal with these roadblocks.
• John Edwards and Karl Rove are set to debate in September.  The smart folks at FiveThirtyEight see this as a strong indication that Edwards is definitely out of the VP running.
• Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is discussed as a potential choice for McCain (Phoenix Business Journal)
• Jonathan Alter makes the case for why Sam Nunn should be Obama’s VP choice. Meanwhile, Michael Goodwin discusses Hillary Clinton’s rising VP prospects (extra commentary on Clinton from PoliGazette here).
• Andrew Romano profiles Gov. Sebelius in his most recent veepstakes profile. (I only recommend reading this if you are REALLY intersted in Sebelius.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t).
• Rachel Maddow spews insanity when she says that Jeb Bush is currently McCain’s top VP choice.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (06/29/08)

Today, we take a look back at this week in the election and also have an in-depth discussion about the Obama Campaign’s general election strategy.

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Live Blog of Clinton-Obama Campaign Event

11:25 EDT: We’ll be blogging the Clinton-Obama event today. MSNBC has been nice to point out the following critically important facts: 1) Obama’s tie matches Clinton’s pantsuit (both robust Democratic blue); 2) Obama and Clinton greeted each other warmly on the plane; and 3) Obama’s campaign plane used to be Clinton’s campaign plane. Is Obama just rubbing salt into the wound?

Last night Obama and Clinton met with Clinton donors. Reviews are mixed. Some Clinton supporters called the event a “dud”; others were more optimistic.

12:05: The New York Times has this picture:

This whole thing feels just ridiculous to me, like something out of a bad sitcom.

12:43: Former NH Gov. and current Sen. candidate Jeanne Shaheen is addressing the crowd. Streaming video with terrible, terrible audio quality available at cnn.com. Democrats are committed to health carem lower costs, a better economiy, independence from foreign oil, and ending the war in Iraq. Shocking, I know. Whatever would the world do without someone liveblogging this.

12:54: Brooks and Dunn’s Only in America is playing now. Apparently “Only in America” can a close election winner reconcile with a close election winner.

12:56: Oh my. Shades of Ghostbusters Two, as Jackie Wilson’s Higher and Higher is booming out. If they arrive at the rally in a walking Statue of Liberty, I’m going to have to abruptly cut off this live blog. On the bright side, that’s probably the only way that absolutely everyone is going to get on the same page. I can see it now - both Obamas and both Clintons riding high.

1:05: They’re fashionably late, like any star couple to any big party.

1:08: I’ve just spotted Huma Abedin on MSNBC, so clearly the candidates have arrived. The “honorary” Mayor of Unity, Ken Hall is introducing the candidates. Imagine Tom Carvel if he lived in rural New Hampshire. In introducing Clinton and Obama, Hall manages to not even say the word Obama, saying just “the next President of the United States, Senator Barack [mumbles].” Clinton and Obama work the rope line together.

1:20: Anne Kornblut points out that “the only person” who worked the crowd with Hillary like Obama just did was Bill Clinton. The whole point of working a crowd as a candidate is that no one but your spouse ever also does it unless someone is endorsing you. It seems that Kornblut is pointing out just a truism. Someone on MSNBC just tried to work the word pusillanimous into the discussion. Uhm, mute.

1:21: I can hear their microphone talk before the speech starts. Obama says he is not talking that long. Clinton speaks first. She starts by thanking the NH Dem pols, saying Obama will need Democratic Senators “when he is President.” She twice refers to the primary being “hard fought” but says that they now stand shoulder to shoulder, even though he’s sitting on a stool. (Cheap line, I know). Everyone’s goal is the same: to elected Obama. She comically refers to the primary as a “spirited dialogue” and admits its the nicest way she could think to put it. Calls the Democratic party “an unstoppable force.” I’m waiting for her to say “we’re the juggernaut, bitch!” She complements Obama’s life and campaign and goals. Talks at a lower tone about “old fashioned” values and listening to even the quiet Americans. Chants for both Obama and Clinton break out. Clinton says that it’s problematic that Democrats rarely have won the White House recently. Clinton leads up to the vote totals of the town, and talks about those votes signifying Democratic values. Key line “Sen. McCain and President Bush are like two side of the same coin that oesn’t add up to a whole lot of change.” Finishes with call to vote for Obama. Except she’s not finished - she talks about a number of people she spoke to on the trail, and that Obama will fight for those people in the White House. This is like Return of the King - it’s felt like it’s about to end about 5 times. She talks about a Medal of Honor recipient who gave her a medal encouraging her to keep fighting. She could really have made history by fighting if she turned around and punched Obama in the face. June surprise! She talks about how important this election is. She quotes Churchill on America doing the right thing after it tries everything else. He also regularly insulted women he thought were ugly. And she - I think - finally finishes by again praising Obama. And there it is.

1:43: Obama thanks the NH pols as well, including the local Kiwanis Club (’the hot dog truck is right behind the massive sign that symbolizes america’s hopes and dreams’), then thanking Clinton at length for her commitment. He praises Clinton’s devotion to causes even in the face of attacks. (from whom remains nameless). Obama says that the country and the party need Bill and Hillary, and praises their long record. Obama uses the Jay-Z dust off the shoulder motion to describe Clinton’s “grace and aplomb.” He concludes an uplifting series about women being able to do anything with jokes about women doing it “in heels.” I’m not sure what to make of that - as someone describes it to me “an awkward throwback to the Ginger Rogers line about Fred Astaire” that’s actually a putdown to him. Obama segues into a juxtaposition of policies with McCain - essentially a staple stump speech. All of his rhetorical flourishes end up with Obama hunched over the podium. Obama pledges a unilateral invasion of school rooms with an army of new teachers. Not in such words, of course. But he is very angry today when talking about the issues. He’s much lighter talking about Clinton. It’s just a weird effect. Obama attacks cable news for “point scoring”- clearly learning some Republican tricks in attacking the press. Wraps up with a call for change.

And that’s it. In brief: He’s fired up, she’s ready to go offstage.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (06/24/08)

John and Angelo are back and will be recording podcasts several times a week now.  This podcast covers (1) Obama’s ‘get over it’ statement and (2) McCain staffer Charles Black’s comments to Fortune Magazine regarding who would benefit from a terrorist attack.

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Al Gore Endorses Barack Obama

This evening, Al Gore will be endorsing Barack Obama at a rally in Detroit, Michigan (read the full Obama press release here).  Now that the primary contest is over, the significance of Gore’s endorsement is different than it would have been had he offered it a few months ago; it’s mainly for the benefit of party unity at this point.

I don’t think Gore’s endorsement will sway undecideds or independents as much as some others do.  Rather, the impact of this endorsement is financial.  Gore has asked visitors to AlGore.com to donate to Barack Obama.  This new financial pool comes at the same time that Hillary Clinton prepares to push her top fundraisers into Obama’s quarter.  It’ll be interesting to see how Obama’s June fundraising figures before this endorsement and HRC’s help compare with rest of the month.

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Hillary Clinton’s Concession And Obama Endorsement Speech

Today, Sen. Hillary Clinton officially suspended her campaign, conceded and endorsed Barack Obama.  It was a strong speech and certainly makes some of the doomsday speculation over the past few days seem a bit silly.

In case you missed it, here’s the video:

Transcript after the jump Read more

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What a Difference Six Months Can Make

December 13, 2007, in Des Moines, Iowa:

June 4, 2008, in Washington, DC:

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Historical Comparisons and Meaning: Clinton Should Have Conceded

Over at the Plank, professor David Greenberg argues about the timetable of Clinton’s concession. He cites three examples: Gary Hart in 1984, Ted Kennedy in 1980, and Morris Udall in 1976, and finds Clinton’s concession this coming Saturday to be at the least on par with the other two. A few notes:

One, the media cycles were far different then, obviously. There were no blogs, and the pressure came mostly from poltiical reporters and fellow members of Congress. That’s changed - blogs, news channels, etc.

Second, 1984 and 1980 were disasters for the Democratic Party. It’s not like Republicans argue “but Goldwater did it!” when talking about tactics. A moreapt comparison would be Mitt Romney, who dropped out at CPAC this year even though his supporters expeced him to continue on. The chances of Romney winning then were roughly analogous to the chances of Clinton winning over the last coupld of months. (Especially after North Carolina)

Clinton’s biggest problem, from my perspective at least, this year has been failing to ever exceed expectations. She did so once: in New Hampshire. The rest of her campaign has been run setting sky high expectations and failing to meet them, or setting absurdly low expectations and meeting them. It’s in exceeding expectations that a candidate can really tap into something - and conceeding on Tuesday - when the math was more than clear - would have been shocking, certainly, but it would have achieved all the goals she hopes to meet this Saturday, and left people with a far more positive view on her.

In other words, it’s not that Professor Greenberg is wrong; It’s that the historical comparisons underline the bigger picture that Sen. Clinton has missed.

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When Does Leading Become Winning?

The Clinton and Obama campaign are arguing over what tomorrow’s primaries are going to mean. That is when Obama is going to secure a majority of pledged delegates. That won’t be enough to put him over the top - he’ll need more superdelegates and add-ons, but it does mean something. The Clinton campaign has essentially three responses:

1) Michigan and Florida!.

2) So what, you need superdelgates.

3) Millions more have to vote.

The third is the easiest to debunk. It’s superficially true, but ultimately pointless. After tomorrow, there are three primaries left: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. Using the population figures of Wikipedia (because they’re freely available), 98.1% of the country will have had a chance to vote in the Democratic primary. (This includes territories, since they vote in the primary.). I doubt the last 1.9% will be the deciding factor.

The first is fairly easy to debunk as well. Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote with Michigan and Florida included, but as RCP makes clear, she deliberately is not including the results of any caucuses that have any threshold requirements for viability. That makes results harder to gauge, but not impossible. For instance, no one disputed that Obama won Iowa. Moreover, if you include just Florida, where Obama was on the ballot, he is ahead in the popular vote count still. And in Michigan, while Clinton is strong, subsequent polls show a tight race. I’m willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in that state in terms of being a strong candidate, but not infinitely stronger as her campaign would want you to believe by citing that election as meaningful. For instance, if you take Clinton off the ballot in the next most populous state, she would lose 330,000 votes and the popular vote would be out of reach. Moreover, Clinton herself had said that the Michigan primary would be meaningless. I’m all for looking to it for some meaning, but the particular vote count is pretty pointless. Even giving Obama the uncommitted vote in Michigan would give him the popular vote lead.

And as for the argument relating to superdelegates, well, Obama has more endorsements than Clinton on that front now.

No wonder Warren Buffett said the race was over today.

In short, to answer the headline question: it already has. Everyone is allowed a chance to vote, and the vote is meaningful, but not every vote is going to be decisive…

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The Kentucky Derby: A Bad Sign For Hillary

Interrupting studying for law school exams with breaking news. This past week, Hillary Clinton commented on the Kentucky Derby:

“I hope that everybody will go to the derby on Saturday and place just a little money on the filly for me. I wont be able to be there this year – my daughter is going to be there and so she has strict instructions to bet on Eight Bells.”

And today, Eight Belles finished … you guessed it, second. And not only that, but broke both ankles afterward and had to be euthanized on the track.

I imagine that Clinton will stay away from this analogy from now on … to say the least. Yikes.

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