2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (06/29/08)

Today, we take a look back at this week in the election and also have an in-depth discussion about the Obama Campaign’s general election strategy.

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Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Live Blog of Clinton-Obama Campaign Event

11:25 EDT: We’ll be blogging the Clinton-Obama event today. MSNBC has been nice to point out the following critically important facts: 1) Obama’s tie matches Clinton’s pantsuit (both robust Democratic blue); 2) Obama and Clinton greeted each other warmly on the plane; and 3) Obama’s campaign plane used to be Clinton’s campaign plane. Is Obama just rubbing salt into the wound?

Last night Obama and Clinton met with Clinton donors. Reviews are mixed. Some Clinton supporters called the event a “dud”; others were more optimistic.

12:05: The New York Times has this picture:

This whole thing feels just ridiculous to me, like something out of a bad sitcom.

12:43: Former NH Gov. and current Sen. candidate Jeanne Shaheen is addressing the crowd. Streaming video with terrible, terrible audio quality available at cnn.com. Democrats are committed to health carem lower costs, a better economiy, independence from foreign oil, and ending the war in Iraq. Shocking, I know. Whatever would the world do without someone liveblogging this.

12:54: Brooks and Dunn’s Only in America is playing now. Apparently “Only in America” can a close election winner reconcile with a close election winner.

12:56: Oh my. Shades of Ghostbusters Two, as Jackie Wilson’s Higher and Higher is booming out. If they arrive at the rally in a walking Statue of Liberty, I’m going to have to abruptly cut off this live blog. On the bright side, that’s probably the only way that absolutely everyone is going to get on the same page. I can see it now - both Obamas and both Clintons riding high.

1:05: They’re fashionably late, like any star couple to any big party.

1:08: I’ve just spotted Huma Abedin on MSNBC, so clearly the candidates have arrived. The “honorary” Mayor of Unity, Ken Hall is introducing the candidates. Imagine Tom Carvel if he lived in rural New Hampshire. In introducing Clinton and Obama, Hall manages to not even say the word Obama, saying just “the next President of the United States, Senator Barack [mumbles].” Clinton and Obama work the rope line together.

1:20: Anne Kornblut points out that “the only person” who worked the crowd with Hillary like Obama just did was Bill Clinton. The whole point of working a crowd as a candidate is that no one but your spouse ever also does it unless someone is endorsing you. It seems that Kornblut is pointing out just a truism. Someone on MSNBC just tried to work the word pusillanimous into the discussion. Uhm, mute.

1:21: I can hear their microphone talk before the speech starts. Obama says he is not talking that long. Clinton speaks first. She starts by thanking the NH Dem pols, saying Obama will need Democratic Senators “when he is President.” She twice refers to the primary being “hard fought” but says that they now stand shoulder to shoulder, even though he’s sitting on a stool. (Cheap line, I know). Everyone’s goal is the same: to elected Obama. She comically refers to the primary as a “spirited dialogue” and admits its the nicest way she could think to put it. Calls the Democratic party “an unstoppable force.” I’m waiting for her to say “we’re the juggernaut, bitch!” She complements Obama’s life and campaign and goals. Talks at a lower tone about “old fashioned” values and listening to even the quiet Americans. Chants for both Obama and Clinton break out. Clinton says that it’s problematic that Democrats rarely have won the White House recently. Clinton leads up to the vote totals of the town, and talks about those votes signifying Democratic values. Key line “Sen. McCain and President Bush are like two side of the same coin that oesn’t add up to a whole lot of change.” Finishes with call to vote for Obama. Except she’s not finished - she talks about a number of people she spoke to on the trail, and that Obama will fight for those people in the White House. This is like Return of the King - it’s felt like it’s about to end about 5 times. She talks about a Medal of Honor recipient who gave her a medal encouraging her to keep fighting. She could really have made history by fighting if she turned around and punched Obama in the face. June surprise! She talks about how important this election is. She quotes Churchill on America doing the right thing after it tries everything else. He also regularly insulted women he thought were ugly. And she - I think - finally finishes by again praising Obama. And there it is.

1:43: Obama thanks the NH pols as well, including the local Kiwanis Club (’the hot dog truck is right behind the massive sign that symbolizes america’s hopes and dreams’), then thanking Clinton at length for her commitment. He praises Clinton’s devotion to causes even in the face of attacks. (from whom remains nameless). Obama says that the country and the party need Bill and Hillary, and praises their long record. Obama uses the Jay-Z dust off the shoulder motion to describe Clinton’s “grace and aplomb.” He concludes an uplifting series about women being able to do anything with jokes about women doing it “in heels.” I’m not sure what to make of that - as someone describes it to me “an awkward throwback to the Ginger Rogers line about Fred Astaire” that’s actually a putdown to him. Obama segues into a juxtaposition of policies with McCain - essentially a staple stump speech. All of his rhetorical flourishes end up with Obama hunched over the podium. Obama pledges a unilateral invasion of school rooms with an army of new teachers. Not in such words, of course. But he is very angry today when talking about the issues. He’s much lighter talking about Clinton. It’s just a weird effect. Obama attacks cable news for “point scoring”- clearly learning some Republican tricks in attacking the press. Wraps up with a call for change.

And that’s it. In brief: He’s fired up, she’s ready to go offstage.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (06/24/08)

John and Angelo are back and will be recording podcasts several times a week now.  This podcast covers (1) Obama’s ‘get over it’ statement and (2) McCain staffer Charles Black’s comments to Fortune Magazine regarding who would benefit from a terrorist attack.

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Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Al Gore Endorses Barack Obama

This evening, Al Gore will be endorsing Barack Obama at a rally in Detroit, Michigan (read the full Obama press release here).  Now that the primary contest is over, the significance of Gore’s endorsement is different than it would have been had he offered it a few months ago; it’s mainly for the benefit of party unity at this point.

I don’t think Gore’s endorsement will sway undecideds or independents as much as some others do.  Rather, the impact of this endorsement is financial.  Gore has asked visitors to AlGore.com to donate to Barack Obama.  This new financial pool comes at the same time that Hillary Clinton prepares to push her top fundraisers into Obama’s quarter.  It’ll be interesting to see how Obama’s June fundraising figures before this endorsement and HRC’s help compare with rest of the month.

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Hillary Clinton’s Concession And Obama Endorsement Speech

Today, Sen. Hillary Clinton officially suspended her campaign, conceded and endorsed Barack Obama.  It was a strong speech and certainly makes some of the doomsday speculation over the past few days seem a bit silly.

In case you missed it, here’s the video:

Transcript after the jump Read more

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What a Difference Six Months Can Make

December 13, 2007, in Des Moines, Iowa:

June 4, 2008, in Washington, DC:

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Historical Comparisons and Meaning: Clinton Should Have Conceded

Over at the Plank, professor David Greenberg argues about the timetable of Clinton’s concession. He cites three examples: Gary Hart in 1984, Ted Kennedy in 1980, and Morris Udall in 1976, and finds Clinton’s concession this coming Saturday to be at the least on par with the other two. A few notes:

One, the media cycles were far different then, obviously. There were no blogs, and the pressure came mostly from poltiical reporters and fellow members of Congress. That’s changed - blogs, news channels, etc.

Second, 1984 and 1980 were disasters for the Democratic Party. It’s not like Republicans argue “but Goldwater did it!” when talking about tactics. A moreapt comparison would be Mitt Romney, who dropped out at CPAC this year even though his supporters expeced him to continue on. The chances of Romney winning then were roughly analogous to the chances of Clinton winning over the last coupld of months. (Especially after North Carolina)

Clinton’s biggest problem, from my perspective at least, this year has been failing to ever exceed expectations. She did so once: in New Hampshire. The rest of her campaign has been run setting sky high expectations and failing to meet them, or setting absurdly low expectations and meeting them. It’s in exceeding expectations that a candidate can really tap into something - and conceeding on Tuesday - when the math was more than clear - would have been shocking, certainly, but it would have achieved all the goals she hopes to meet this Saturday, and left people with a far more positive view on her.

In other words, it’s not that Professor Greenberg is wrong; It’s that the historical comparisons underline the bigger picture that Sen. Clinton has missed.

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When Does Leading Become Winning?

The Clinton and Obama campaign are arguing over what tomorrow’s primaries are going to mean. That is when Obama is going to secure a majority of pledged delegates. That won’t be enough to put him over the top - he’ll need more superdelegates and add-ons, but it does mean something. The Clinton campaign has essentially three responses:

1) Michigan and Florida!.

2) So what, you need superdelgates.

3) Millions more have to vote.

The third is the easiest to debunk. It’s superficially true, but ultimately pointless. After tomorrow, there are three primaries left: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. Using the population figures of Wikipedia (because they’re freely available), 98.1% of the country will have had a chance to vote in the Democratic primary. (This includes territories, since they vote in the primary.). I doubt the last 1.9% will be the deciding factor.

The first is fairly easy to debunk as well. Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote with Michigan and Florida included, but as RCP makes clear, she deliberately is not including the results of any caucuses that have any threshold requirements for viability. That makes results harder to gauge, but not impossible. For instance, no one disputed that Obama won Iowa. Moreover, if you include just Florida, where Obama was on the ballot, he is ahead in the popular vote count still. And in Michigan, while Clinton is strong, subsequent polls show a tight race. I’m willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in that state in terms of being a strong candidate, but not infinitely stronger as her campaign would want you to believe by citing that election as meaningful. For instance, if you take Clinton off the ballot in the next most populous state, she would lose 330,000 votes and the popular vote would be out of reach. Moreover, Clinton herself had said that the Michigan primary would be meaningless. I’m all for looking to it for some meaning, but the particular vote count is pretty pointless. Even giving Obama the uncommitted vote in Michigan would give him the popular vote lead.

And as for the argument relating to superdelegates, well, Obama has more endorsements than Clinton on that front now.

No wonder Warren Buffett said the race was over today.

In short, to answer the headline question: it already has. Everyone is allowed a chance to vote, and the vote is meaningful, but not every vote is going to be decisive…

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The Kentucky Derby: A Bad Sign For Hillary

Interrupting studying for law school exams with breaking news. This past week, Hillary Clinton commented on the Kentucky Derby:

“I hope that everybody will go to the derby on Saturday and place just a little money on the filly for me. I wont be able to be there this year – my daughter is going to be there and so she has strict instructions to bet on Eight Bells.”

And today, Eight Belles finished … you guessed it, second. And not only that, but broke both ankles afterward and had to be euthanized on the track.

I imagine that Clinton will stay away from this analogy from now on … to say the least. Yikes.

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Weekend Briefing (April 27, 2008)

Here’s what’s news this weekend…

• Rush Limbaugh is raising hairs for his suggestion and later clarification about his call (or desire) for there to be riots at this year’s Democratic Convention similar to the riots in 1968.
• Hillary Clinton calls for a Lincoln-Douglas style debate between her and Barack Obama.  The debate would be 90 minutes, no moderators, just the two candidates in a free flowing one-on-one discussion.  The Obama Campaign quickly and flatly rejected the idea.
• Yesterday was the White House Correspondence Dinner.  You can watch President Bush’s speech here (it was pretty funny).
• On a blogger call, McCain portrays Obama as the candidate of Hamas, saying:
  

  I think it’s very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president of the United States. So apparently has Danny Ortega and several others. I think that people should understand that I will be Hamas’s worst nightmare….If senator Obama is favored by Hamas I think people can make judgments accordingly.

  Joe Klein responds to McCain’s suggestion here.

• A look at some of HRC’s foreign policy stumbles coupled with the complaint that the press is underreporting an issue to support their narrative.  The press…underreport something?  *shock*

More to come, feel free to submit suggestions…

 

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Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Delegate Breakdown

Below is the delegate breakdowns for the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary.

Total Delegates: 187

Pledged Delegates: 158
– Proportional by Statewide total: 55
– Proportional by Congressional District: 103
—— District 9: 3 delegates
—— Districts 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
—— Districts 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
—— District 6: 6 delegates
—— Districts 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
—— District 9: 2 delegates each

Superdelegates: 29
– DNC Members: 13
– Elected officials: 13 (11 Democratic Congressman, 1 Democratic Senator, 1 Democratic Governor)
– Add-ons: 3

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The Real Problem With ABC’s Debate

There’s a back and forth going on regarding the last debate on ABC News. I think both sides are partially right and both are partially wrong. The accusatory tones going back and forth are not helping, either.

The complainers main argument seems to be that actual substance took a backseat. The supporters note that these kinds of issues are important to voters too. Both of those points have merit, but don’t implicate the ideas of people they are arguing against.

In debate, these types of arguments are commonly referred to as ships passing in the night. While one or both have legitimate points, neither address the points of the other.

In this instance, the bickering and biases of both sides prevent reasonable type solutions.

To wit: Those types of non-issues are important for voters. That’s why it didn’t matter what Al Sharpton’s health care policy was 4 years ago. Or what Gary Bauer’s position on the future of NATO was 8 years ago. Or what virtually any of Ralph Nader’s positions ever are. There’s a certain sense of respect that Americans require of the President (this is different from the commander in chief argument). Angelo and I have been discussing it, and he mentioned that it may be a result of the President being both the head of state and head of government. The office is beyond issues. That’s why you can read the 2000 election as to some extent a rejection of the Bill Clinton’s time in office. (While Gore won the popular vote, it was not by the margin one would have expected if you disregard impeachment, Monica, etc. Liberals hate to admit this.)

On the other hand, there’s virtually no reason for both candidates to weigh in on these issues. It does not matter what Sen. Clinton thinks of Wright or the comments in San Francisco, and it does not matter what Sen. Obama thinks of the Bosnia story. These questions need to be asked one on one in a live format. The proper place would be somewhere like Meet the Press, but Russert has recently gone off the deep end looking for gotcha questions instead of just exploring these controversial issues.

Point being, that when people complain about a debate being a waste, it’s not just because these issues came up necessarilly. The questions deserved answers. But that’s not what a debate is for. Listen to the NPR debate or the Des Moines Register Debate, or even most of the last ABC Debate. When a debate turns into a discussion of the issues, it raises up all the candidates and the country as a whole.

There’s been over discussion of some issues in this campaign (health care mandates, for one) and under discussion of a whole lot of crucial other ones. (Republicans have barely talked about health care while Democrats could have held a symposium on it. Democrats have barely gotten into climate change except to all try to outdo each other in praise for Al Gore.)

Some might say: What if candidates duck appearances to avoid that type of questioning? Then ask them about that; the opposition candidate surely can comment on a candidate refusing to engage in a discussion like that. But the throws to Obama and Clinton to comment on the missteps of the other are just very awkward and unnecessary.

Now that primary debates are apparently finished, it’s appropriate to look back and realize what could have been and what could be. Let’s have more discourse next time while leaving the other questions for a better forum. The chance of that happening? Well, I’m not holding my breath.

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FEC Report: Hillary Clinton (April Monthly 2008)

On April 20, 2008, Hillary Clinton’s campaign filed its April Monthly FEC Report.  This report covers the period of Mar. 1 - 31, 2008.  Here’s the breakdown:

Total Raised In March: $20,931,870.78
Money Spent In March: $22,372,765.27
Cash On Hand At End Of March: $31,712,197.67
—> For Primary: Approx $9,000,000
—> For General Election: Approx $22,000,000
Debts: $10,321,562.87

*It’s worth noting that this report does not include the $2.5 million that Sen. Clinton raised at the recently held fundraiser with Elton John.

Sen. Clinton is in a similar financial position to the one she was in last month; it’s actually slightly worse when the numbers are analyzed, since her campaign actually began the month in the red with almost a million dollars more owed than they had available in primary funds.  A big win in Pennsylvania would certainly help her short term financial outlook.  It’s also worth adding that Clinton raised approximately $15 million online during the month of March, which demonstrates an increase in ability to raise money online.

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Obama Campaign: Sen. Clinton’s Remarks On Bosnia Were A Breach Of Honor

With approximately 10 minutes notice to reporters, the Obama campaign held a conference call today with Pennysylvania Bosnia veterans to discuss Sen. Clinton’s previous remarks on Bosnia.  The timing of the call is somewhat odd, especially in light of Sen. Obama’s statements regarding political distractions at ABC’s debate earlier this week.

Maj. Gen. Walter Stewart (ret.) observed:

“Imagine the lack of moral authority she has now to lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier.”

Read more

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Time Allotments For ABC News Clinton-Obama Debate In Pennsylvania

Below are the time allotments for tonight’s ABC News Democratic debate in Pennsylvania between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:

This allotment represents total speaking time for each candidate, excluding their opening remarks.

Related at 2008Central.net:

• Live Blog Of ABC News Clinton-Obama “Debate” In Pennsylvania (04/16/08)

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Live Blog Of ABC News Clinton-Obama “Debate” In Pennsylvania

Tonight, ABC News will be hosting a debate in Pennsylvania between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. We’ll be liveblogging the debate, as usual, so stay tuned…

8:00: Introductory statements. Obama talks about hope, Clinton talks about the founding fathers and concern. Also that government is not standing up for people across America; almost that they’re bitter or something. Also plugs detailed plans on her website.

And … a commercial break already? Umm, ok.

8:08: Gibson talks about each of them appealing to different constituencies. Asks about the Cuomo plan to take the other as the Vice President and the other should agree. Obama demurs first, and says that the party will come together by the convention. Gibson is not happy with that answer, and presses Clinton, who says that she will do everything possible to make sure one of them is elected. What a silly question. I’m not sure if it’s good or bad that they got the stupid question out of the way early.

8:12: Obama is asked about the bitter/cling comments. Obama says it’s not the first time or last he “mangled up what he meant.” He’s talking in a really apologetic tone. Says promises have been broken, and wedge issues take precedence over real issues that can be fixed. Doesn’t really talk about the anti-trade or immigrant comments.

8:15: Clinton talks about her grandfather from Pennsylvania. Says she does not agree that people cling to religion when Washington is ignoring them, and says the same about guns. But she agrees that people are frustrated with the government. Talks about understanding and listening to one another. Read more

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FYI: Hillary Clinton On Colbert

FYI, Hillary Clinton will appear on The Colbert Report this Thursday, April 17.  Should be interesting to see how she does with Stephen Colbert.  I have an odd feeling that she’s going to be able to handle Colbert a lot better than anyone is expecting her to.  [Trivia: For a man that loves eagles, I bet he'd be interested to know that Bill Clinton's secret service code name was "Eagle" and Hillary Clinton's was "Evergreen."]

In case you missed it, Michelle Obama was on The Colbert Report yesterday (video at link).

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PREVIEW: ABC News Democratic Debate In Pennsylvania Between Hillary Clinton And Barack Obama

Tonight, ABC News will be hosting a debate in Pennsylvania between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  The debate will air live at 8PM EST (7PM CST) on ABC and will be moderated by Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos.  If you’re looking to watch the debate online, you can find a live stream here.

If you’re a total junkie, some nice backgrounders…

 

• The Note analyzes the stakes
• Trailhead on “how Hillary can win“
• Time’s preview
• Check out Divided We Stand, United We Fail’s liveblog of the livebloggers (I strongly recommend checking this out).

 

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