More on Divided Government: The Judicial Question

There’s been a lot said about divided government, including by me. But one aspect horribly overlooked is the judicial question. Jeffrey Rosen looked at it, and if you’re a fan of moderate policies, beware:

In each of the past three elections, of course, these hyperbolic predictions have turned out to be wrong. Since 1996, Roe has been supported by a comfortable 6-3 majority, and the Court, controlled by two relatively moderate swing justices, Sandra Day O’Connor and now Anthony Kennedy, has remained fairly centrist. All of this had led some Court-watchers, including me, to conclude that the stakes for the Court in most presidential elections are less dire than many liberals fear.

Not this time. This year, for the first time since the New Deal era, a single election really does have the power to transform the Court–at the very moment that voters, rightly concerned about the tanking economy and the war in Iraq, are looking the other way. Given the fact that the older justices are liberal rather than conservative–and that the oldest, John Paul Stevens, is 88–it’s hard to deny that nominations by John McCain would change the Court far more dramatically than those by Barack Obama. An Obama victory would maintain the current balance of the Court, while a McCain Court could create a solid conservative majority.

What’s at stake is not only Roe v. Wade, but issues directly tied to the current concerns of the public: among them, Congress’s power to regulate the economy as well as limits on the president’s power to act unilaterally in the war on terrorism. Although McCain claims to favor justices who will defer to the political branches, the most likely Republican nominees are hardly consistent advocates of judicial deference. Voters who are hoping McCain will nominate relatively moderate judicial mavericks should think again.

I’ve said before that I don’t think Roe is an issue, so I’ll take it off the table here. The reality is that the court is on the brink of swinging to a near-Lochner court. There’s been strong pushback against federal government related to interstate commerce, and that trickle could become a deluge with the right Court appointees. Given the relative ages of liberals and conservatives on the Court, a Democratic president would be more likely to retain balance on the Court. Where before narrow majorities upheld issues like basic judicial access for detainees, this would change that. There’s far, far more at stake with the Supreme Court than with the actual Presidential election. Campaign finance is another issue that could be gutted.

A simplistic look at divided government always only looks at President and Congress. In all likelihood, the economy will continue to have problems in the next few years, and at some point, Republicans will be able to take advantage of that, at least in the House and possibly Senate elections. But what can’t be undone are Supreme Court appointments.

Divided government reminds me of speed limits on a highway. Yes, it’s safer to have speed limits on the highway, but what really matters is which way you are driving.

Postscript: I think a more interesting case for divided government is made by the NRSC Dole commercial which assumes an Obama victory. If there’s a run off in the Georgia Senate race, you can expect much of the same.

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A Picture’s Worth A Thousand Words

Political cartoons have long been staples in American politics.  Before television, internet cartoons, and very controversial New Yorker covers, editorial cartoonists rawly exposed political happenings and projected their interpretations into the minds of their viewers.  William Tweed, a corrupt political machine politician in 19th century New York City, once commented: 

I don’t care a straw for your newspaper articles, my constituents don’t know how to read, but they can’t help seeing them damned pictures.

Here’s a look at some of this week’s political cartoons and what they’re thinking.  It is important to note where and what papers these cartoons are published in, as they provide important insight into the messages and the minds effecting local voters.

John Traver, of the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico has one take on Obama and his perceived ego:

John Darkow, of the Columbia Daily Tribune in Missouri has quite a different take of McCain, Obama and an Iraqi withdrawal:

Mike Lester, of the Rome News-Tribune in Rome, Georgia has an interesting take on Obama and the Media:

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Nate Beeler, of The Washington Examiner, in D.C. also looks at the media and Obama:

Scott Stantis, of the Birmingham News in Alabama takes a critical look at Obama’s move to the center: Read more

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AUDIO: Round Table Discussion With 08 Blogger Network Members…

Following an organizational discussion, some 08 Blogger Network members participated in a round table discussion about the state of the presidential election. Some of the topics discussed were Obama’s FISA vote, McCain’s issues with his base and the political consequences, noteworthy takeaways and much more. Since this discussion took place after an organizational meeting, introductions are not included on the recording. The participating bloggers were iPol, potus2008election, me (2008central.net) and Divided We Stand, United We Fall.

It was a very interesting conversation, take a listen…

If you are interested in joining the 08 Bloggers Network, please email 08bloggers

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2008 Election Weekly Roundup (June 9-13, 2008)

A roundup of 2008 election news for the week of June 9-13:

• Tim Russert suddenly passed away while at work on Friday (6/13/08).
• Tom Brokaw appropriately reminds viewers to be wary of “commentary disguised as reporting.”
• McCain’s ad-libs on the campaign trail are beginning to confound reporters; thus bringing attention to them.  Some examples are McCain’s “it’s a google” statement or his suggestion that in preparation for natural disasters “We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.”
• Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D) rules out the vice-presidency, saying: ”Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept and if elected I will not serve. So, I don’t know how more crystal clear I can be.”
• Republicans supporting Obama (’Obamacans’) get a spot of attention this week.  A nice rundown of some of the prominent Obamacans can be found here.  And, this story will only continue to get fuel while some major players, like Colin Powell, mull the idea of supporting Obama.
• Jonathan Chait offers his analysis on the current state of the presidential race.  It’s worth a read.
• The Supreme Court extended habeus corpus rights to detainees at Guantanamo.  An excellent roundup of news/information about these decisions can be found here.  This kind of case, especially with its closeness, will continue to remind voters of the importance that this election has for the future direction of the Supreme Court.  John McCain has already called this decision one of the “worst in the history of this country.”
• McCain continues aggressively targeting Hillary supporters and independents.  Tomorrow, McCain will hold a virtual town hall tomorrow for Democratic and Independent voters.

Think there’s something missing? Please let us know (either by email or commenting).  Also, this roundup is not exhaustive and is likely to be supplemented as I digest the rest of news from this week.

 

 

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Live Blog Of MSNBC Democratic Debate In Las Vegas, Nevada (January 15, 2007)

8:20: Dennis Kucinich has apparently lost his appeal and will not be appearing on stage tonight. That leaves Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

8:47: Exit polls and early results seem to indicate a good night for Romney in Michigan, even though a few polls are still open.

8:53: Over to MSNBC. Their debate graphic is a boxing ring, which immediately makes me wonder if the debate is rigged. I’m affirmed in that stance by the news that Hillary Clinton was endorsed by and will campaign with Ugly Betty.

8:54: Chuck Todd is in the house, and predicts race will come up on the birthday of MLK.

8:56: Candidates are paraded on stage, Obama, Clinton, Edwards left to right. Harry Reid shows up to hug everybody and lead the debate in a moment of ceremonial non-productivity.

8:57: They’re sitting in a conference table that looks like it was an outcast from a bad King Arthur movie. Chuck Todd wonders what questions the candidates will ask each other, as if they’ll be anything really different. Olbermann is curious if the debate format makes it harder to attack someone sitting down. Seriously, that’s the analysis you’re missing. Apparently Republicans are dying to sit down, too.

9:00: Mitt Romney gets his big win in Michigan, and the Republican race is officially mucked up.

9:02: Harry Reid gets another shout out in yet another moment where nothing is accomplished. I think that’s enough Reid-karma for tonight. No applause tonight, and lights for time. There’s another moderator with just email questions.

9:04: Question to Clinton on how did we get here on race. Clinton says neither race nor gender matters, and cites Edwards being shockingly the son of a mill worker. Clinton says sometimes supporters are ‘uncontrollable’ in their exuberance. She recognizes MLK. Obama gets the same question and agrees. Edwards agrees and decides to add that he lived in the south when there was segregation there. He saw it! He lived with it! He takes a bold stance against going back to segregation.

9:09: On accountability, Russert asks if he regrets pushing the story. Obama agrees with Clinton that there were overzealous staffers, and that’s why he spoke yesterday. He says it was not a deliberate attempt to marginalize him as “the” black candidate. Russert asks about his campaign support falling off in NH. Umm, Tim, Clinton got a ten point bounce; Obama stayed more or less where he was. Obama says change happens because of what people say, not what candidates say. Russert asks if Robert Johnson will be asked to leave Clinton’s campaign after the faux pas. Clinton mentions the clarification he issued (that was complete BS) and moves on to a general line about people listening to what candidates say, not endorsers. Clinton says the comments were out of bounds “and he said that.” True, if today is opposites day.

9:15: Why choose between a black man or a woman? Edwards says it is about change and what type of change you want, etc. It’s personal for him! What is a white male to do? The audience laughs at the inanity of the question. Fifteen minutes in, and we’ve got undeniably the worst question of the night. Can we get to something that matters?

9:17: Question on women voting for Obama. Was his “likable enough” comment the cause of his loss? Obama points out how much of a non issue this is. I’m starting to regret live blogging. Get to something that at least might matter, please. Question for Edwards on whether he tag teamed with Obama. Edwards takes a bold stance in favor of telling the truth. Clinton gives him the stare of death.

9:22: Someone starts yelling in the back of the room briefly. Clinton is asked about the general election race. Clinton says there will be unity, and that what matters is who is ready on day 1, etc. She cites the highest home foreclosure rate in the country. Her experience is “rooted in the voices” she has heard. When asked if Edwards and Obama are prepared enough, she says that is up to the voters to decide. Obama is asked about saying he is not an executive officer. He says that being President means setting an agenda and having a vision, not making sure paperwork is done effectively. Bold argument to make, in that it’s almost surely going to be used against him should he be nominated.

9:26: Greatest strength and weaknesses: Obama, bringing people together. His weakness is organizing his desk, he needs people around him to do that. Edwards’ greatest strength is fighting for his whole life. He had to fight to survive! His weakness is a powerful emotional response. He tells a story about how he feels it in a personal way. Clinton says she wants to be an instrument for helping children. Change, Change, Change. Her weakness is impatience for not getting more change! Change! She segues into an attack on Obama, but that being president is being an executive officer. She says Bush failed at managing the bureaucracy. Obama says you do have to be a good manager, and hold your team accountable. He says in a light moment Bush was always on time and never lost any papers, but did not bring in different perspectives.

9:33: Question for Obama about the Muslim emails and slurs. He confirms he is a Christian and took the oath on a Bible, and leads the pledge of allegiance on occasion. He says people are smarter than to believe that. Again cites real issues that could be discussed, although denying this isn’t as much as a waste of time as the first 15 minutes.

9:39: Back from commercials.

9:40: Clinton is asked about Citigroup and Merrill Lynch getting loans from overseas. Clinton says they are ’sovereign wealth funds.’ She would like to know more, but looks at why this happened, specifically citing these companies betting on subprime mortgages. Edwards agrees with Clinton on calls for transparency. He further says all growth is as a result of the top 1% or multinational corporations. (Fact check?) He says the middle class does not feel secure in their jobs or health insurance. Obama says the lack of an energy policy is at root of the problem. He also says it happened because there was a lack of oversight by the Bush administration.

9:45: Edwards regrets his vote on the bankruptcy bill in 2001. He says universal health care and fighting for more change can help. He says getting rid of banks as an intermediary in student loans also can help. Clinton also regrets her vote on the 2001 bill, and points out it does not happen. She talks about changes to regulation that could help prevent another Countrywide disaster. Obama says he opposed both bankruptcy bills, and cites a bill he submitted a year and half ago. Cites the influence of special interest lobbyists on the issue. Calls for relief for those who cannot meet payments for health care based reasons.

9:52: Obama is asked about changes to the tax codes, and says he would consider exempting the middle class from dividends and capital gains, but that those like Buffet should not be taxed at a lower rate than his secretary. Refers to Edwards’ example of the top 1 percent. Clinton is asked about long term effects of the foreclosures. She says that interest rates will stabilize the market, and is in line with what the Fed is doing in the monetary area of the economy. Talks more about her stimulus program, which is intended for now, and not on or after inauguration, so I’ll leave the details out. Joking referral to timed lights.

9:58: Time for questions from each candidate to the others. Edwards says Obama recently passed Clinton for how much they raised from drug companies. Obama talks about the details of the donations not being directly from the companies, and that he has a record fo small donations. He says he wants to fight for public financing of campaigns. Apparently, there’s now only one question. Clinton says Bush is making the argument that he can make an agreement with the government in Iraq and have it be binding without passing the Senate. Obama says “Well we can work on this Hillary.” He says there is unity on the matter. Obama talks at length about his views on Iraq as Clinton looks like she loses interest. Clinton agrees on the pledge to start withdrawing troops, and Edwards’ cites his aggressiveness. Russert wonders why they did not pledge to him to be out by 2013. Obama says there may be a need for some troop presence to protect the embassy and fight Al Qaeda. Clinton says it is more than Bush, saying McCain wants troops there for 100 years. Edwards says everyone wants to protect the embassy, but there will be no permanent bases. Obama says you are either going after terrorists or you are not. Williams seems to indicate that this is his question. Edwards says he will keep troops in Kuwait, and that is different because it is not an occupation.

10:13: Back from the last commercial. Will she vigorously enforce statutes that require ROTC and military recruiters to have campus access? Yes. She talks at length about the valor of troops, and signing bonuses being taken away from wounded soldiers. She says campuses can work out ways aside from ROTC as a means of meeting the standard. Obama also says yes, saying how much more poorer communities are bearing the burden of fighting the war. Talks about an enlargement of the army to help out people going on multiple cycles. Edwards will also enforce it. He says its more than those who are fighting, but also homeless voters. Talks about narrowing gap between regular workers and military workers. Obama says he could not believe veterans paid for meals and phone calls in Walter Reed. Clinton says the traumatic brain injury in particular is problematic.

10:20: Yucca Mountain time! Williams points out that everyone promises to end it. Obama says he will end Yucca, as it is not based on sound science, and does not want to spend billions more on a situation that is not safe. He wants to get experts together. Clinton voted against it and held a hearing on it. Clinton points out that an Obama supporter wants Yucca and Edwards voted for it twice. Obama says its a testimony to the science that he never supported it as Clinton gives him the ‘who are you kidding’ face. Edwards says he is against it, but moreover is against nuclear power. Clinton points out that he voted for it, but Edwards points out that that was before some documents were revealed as forged, and he changed on it many years ago.

10:24: Obama defends his vote on the Energy Bill because of how much of an investment it had for green energy. Says if he could find a safe way to make nuclear power than it should be on the table. Obama wants to see where the science goes. Clinton says that the Energy Bill was the Cheney-Lobbyist bill that had enormous giveaways. Talks about ‘breaking the lock’ of special interests, as suddenly Obama is status quo and Clinton is change.

10:28: Edwards says the nuclear power does not solve the problem, and therefore cannot be part of the problem (?). He says Clinton raised more money from the lobbyists she referred to than anyone else. He says investing in more biofuels could help, and a moratorium on coal power plants. Clinton says her plan has been put forward, and does not allow for more coal plants. Obama talks about reducing the consumption of energy and the need to get more efficient.

10:32: Why not English as an official language? Edwards talks about a path to citizenship, and earned citizenship, as Williams points out that does not answer the question at all. He talks about learning to speak English to become a citizen.

10:33: Clinton is asked about the statement of a pollster who said there was not a lot of affinity of Latino voters for black candidates. She says it is a historical analysis, but that there needs to be focus on issues, saying she regrets not talking about more black and brown issues tonight.

10:35: Obama says Latinos in Illinois voted for him. He specifically cites standing with Kennedy and McCain during the immigration debate.

10:36: Email question for Obama about black dropouts from schools. Obama says it is about youth starting behind, and that early childhood education is critical early on. Obama talks about families and black fathers needing to do more. Clinton talks about families being crucial, and about a school she helped found in New York. Edwards says universal pre-K for every children is needed, as are second chance schools.

10:39: The leading cause of death for young men is gun violence. Clinton is asked about statements she made about requiring license for guns. Clinton says she is against illegal guns but is a realist. She says she wants a registry of people who are felons or mentally ill. She also talks about the assault weapons ban. Obama also allows that he cannot get a mandatory registry done. He talks about actions on illegal guns getting fixed. Talks about the difference between lawful gun owners and students who are subject to violence. Edwards says it is important to protect second Amendment rights, and that you can also protect against assault weapons. Anyone want to mention guns as protection? Anyone? Bueller?

10:47: Brian Williams welcomes us back to Los Angeles and people jeer, and Williams rubs in that he’s up $130. Williams asks Clinton about saying Bush threatened in 2004, but said that Al Qaeda attacked Gordon Brown. She stands by her comments that ‘we face a very serious adversary.” Williams is briefly shown on camera and looks to be falling asleep. Obama says America has been dominated by a politics of fear since 9/11, and compliments Clinton for her work in New York, but that citing it in the way Clinton did was a politics of fear. Says Iraq was a consequence of such thinking. Clinton clarifies to Russert that she was not saying Obama would be tested quicker than her, but rather that Al Qaeda tested Brown quickly. She says there is a difference between using fear like Bush and recognizing the gravity of the spectre of terrorism.

10:54: Edwards is asked if it was appropriate for him to talk to Musharraf the day Bhutto died. Edwards says he only requested a call, and gave tough talk to Musharraf, including calls for democratization and independent investigators.

10:56: When did you decide to run for President? Clinton, over New Years a year ago. She somehow segues to a plug for a town hall in Reno. I wonder if Dangle is handling security. Edwards made the decision in December a year ago. Obama says the time was the same, in December in 06. He touts his family handling the stress. He says the question is not whether he could win, but whether he should. None of these timeframes are accurate in any but the most esoteric way.

And that’s a wrap, for what was really not that memorable a debate.

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Friday Briefing (November 30, 2007)

Republicans

Fred Thompson: Thompson, realizing these debates show him not at his best, proposes an alternative that will never, ever happen … You want proof that these debates are not the best for Thompson? He had to clarify that he was against abortions in almost all cases. Yes, the candidate who less than a month ago was endorsed by the NLRC had to clarify that. The new language seems to be ‘prohibited,’ but he does not say by whom; I imagine it’s the states given his prior statements…

John McCain: Jim Geraghty at NRO thinks McCain won the debate. … McCain is not seeing progress in the polls, in large part still because of his immigration and campaign finance positions, even though he can tout Iraq now. … McCain did a MTV/Myspace forum, talking in part about the dangers of global warming.

Mike Huckabee: A review of Huckabee’s record on taxes finds mixed results. … David Yepsen says Huckabee should be considered a top tier candidate now. … Huckabee was on Hardball and talked extensively about religion, while also criticizing the questions asked in the debate. It’s worth a read, if only to see Matthews go on and on about no religious test for public office and then only ask Huckabee questions relating to his faith…

Mitt Romney: A new poll shows Romney down three points in Iowa to Huckabee, and you know what that means: new commercials and new mailings from Romney. … The WSJ looks at the campaign work of Romney’s sons. … Romney made a dumb mistake in regards to the Red Sox in the debate, saying they waited 87 years, not 86 for a title. …

Ron Paul: Paul is on track to raise the most money of any Republican candidate; I’m not sure that doesn’t say more about the rest of the candidates than it does Ron Paul and how alienated the civil libertarian wing of the Republican Party feels right now. I wonder if any of the other candidates can tap into that at all. I’m not terribly optimistic. … More on Paul and that superhighway, including government denials that will appease no one who believes in it. …

Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani calls the Politico story on funding a dirty trick; Jonathan Martin at Politico shrugs it off with some good comments. That’s not an especially convincing angle, especially since the Giuliani campaign was notified of the impending article earlier in the week. More facts are still emerging. … The Economist says Giuliani would be the candidate for those who think Bush has been timid in foreign policy. …  Giuliani has a new ad up in NH, trying to make a push with Romney slipping virtually everywhere. …  An extensive fact check of Giuliani’s boasts about NYC crime going down finds that he might be overstating what he did. … Giuliani’s business ties to Qatar are being looked into for terrorist links. …

Democrats

Barack Obama: Obama met with NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg this morning over breakfast in what was technically a private meeting, in as much as breakfast in front of a window before members of the NY media can be private. You can read more on this here or virtually anywhere, and see video clips (very pointless, imho) 105863">here. My take is that Bloomberg needed the meeting to be this public far more than Obama did. … Obama maintains his statistically insignificant lead in Iowa. … Obama rallied in Harlem last night with Cornel West and Chris Rock, and met with Al Sharpton prior to the event. …

Hillary Clinton: Reporters have struggled getting access to Clinton. Ipol commented on just that. … Hillary Clinton addressed Rick Warren’s AIDS conference and got rave reviews. … The Boston Globe says that New Hampshire is becoming Clinton’s firewall with Iowa so tight, but that race is tightening as well. …  Clinton’s campaign is calling for Obama’s health care ad in New Hampshire to be taken down; neither side is giving up over the mandates, but Clinton’s constantly on the offense and Obama constantly on defense on the subject. That has to favor Clinton if anyone. …

John Edwards: Edwards is also now too criticizing Obama’s health care plan. … The Des Moines Register takes a look at the vast differences in style and substance in John Edwards between now and four years ago, starting with the line: “John Edwards tells voters that there are still two Americas. What Iowa caucusgoers must decide is if there are two John Edwardses.” … Edwards outlined his trade policy in Iowa. …

The Rest: Joe Biden is at 8 percent and Bill Richardson at 4 in the newest ARG poll. Ipol’s take says everything I could possibly want to say on it. … Richardson is still trying in Iowa, even with prospects looking bleak. … Joe Biden threatened impeachment if Bush attacked Iran without the consent of Congress; somehow, I think that threat is more meaningful than Kucinich’s. Biden also attempted to flip the Secretary of State argument on its head. …

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Live Blog Of CNN Democratic Debate In Las Vegas, Nevada (November 15, 2007)

7:55: We’re here and ready to go. Campaign news of the day: John Edwards launches this site, aimed at taking down Hillary Clinton (at any cost?). General news of the day: Barry Bonds was indicted.

8:00: Mike Gravel is again not here. I have to think that hurts Clinton the most, as all the other attacks on Clinton sting less when Gravel is sitting on the sideline attacking everyone.

8:01: Candidates are being introduced one at a time, and CNN decided to “bring to you” the photo opp. What a shocker, CNN bringing something of little to no substance and touting it as some innovation. Clinton definitely got the loudest ovation when entering the stage. From left to right: Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Clinton, Obama, Dodd, and Edwards.

8:04: CNN tries to bring in its political team, and says Clinton has to engage. I disagree with them: Clinton has the audience on her side, so anyone who attacks too hard risks getting hard boos they probably do not want. This goes for Edwards more than Obama. The CNN political analysts keep talking about mixing it up. How about previewing particular issues? 7 minutes in, not a single mention of anything beyond the horserace.

8:08: Campbell Brown and John Roberts are asking the introductory question, and Blitzer will ask follow ups at his discretion.

8:09: Clinton is asked about her immigration position and Edwards’ attack of the ‘politics of parsing.’ Clinton says people know where she’s stood, and talks of the importance of a tested candidate and leading from day 1. Obama is brought in regard ‘triangulating … whatever that means.’ He says that straight answers to tough questions are needed, and cites her answers the past two weeks, and also cites Social Security. Gives his stump speech of Washington changing. Clinton responds that Obama’s health care plan is a failure, as it leaves 15 million people out (coincidentally the population of Nevada, SC, Iowa, and New Hampshire). Obama says the problem is nto mandating health care plans, but making it available and affordable. Clinton jumps in, saying the Obama’s plan “does not cover everyone” and “does not mandate the kind of change mine does” as Obama says “that’s not true.” Blitzer tries to move on, but Obama forces an answer as someone in the audience starts yelling, distracting Obama. Now John Edwards finally gets a chance, saying it is about ‘trust,’ and there are fair questions. He goes over Iraq, Iran, Social Security, and change in general. Much more concise and focused of an answer than Obama’s repetitive answers. People in the audience are getting restless and yelling randomly. Clinton indicates that Edwards’ attacks are out of the Republican attack book, and that Edwards was not for universal health care when he ran in 04 but is now. Hillary bringing out the big guns. Biden says that this is ridiculous, and it’s not what people care about. Says it’s about action, not experience and change. Cites Georgia, Russia, and Pakistan. Starts a laundry list of things he’s done, but cuts himself out.

8:20: Second question, Edwards is asked about changing his positions, on Yucca and health care. Says he thinks its about learning and maturing and everyone ought be willing to do that. Says that is different from saying two things at the same time. Edwards cites Clinton saying two things on trade in the past week, as the audience noticably groans. Says the question is about America. This is just a nightmare; the issues are not getting talked about, the only thing getting talked about is vague generalities. Now Dodd gets asked about saying Edwards has changed. Dodd says there is a shrillness to the debate, and truer words have never been spoken. Richardson starts off 24 minutes in by introducing himself, and says that Edwards wants to start a class war, Obama wants to start a generational war, and Clinton wants to keep the Iraq war going, and that he wants to give peace a chance. Light laughter for a line that must have seemed a lot better on paper. Finishes with a call to be positive … after slamming the top three. What a nightmare.

8:25: Everyone gets asked if they would support the nominee. Edwards asks if the question was planted, I roll my eyes. Everyone of consequence says yes, Bidenjokingly says “Hell no!”

8:26: Obama gets asked about immigration. Says people should be frustrated. Step one of his is border security, step two is holding employers accountable, and that would get them out of the shadows, and after they pay a fine and go to the back of the line, then there can be peace on the issue. Specifically on licenses, he says they come to work, not to go get food, and that he voted for it in Illinois. Blitzer presses for a yes or no, and Obama hedges a bit (oddly, given what he just said: it’s a bad moment. From five stars to zero in terms of clarity) and says it is a distraction. His first two answers were great, the last one was mediocre at best. Edwards says no, Dodd says no, Obama says yes, Clinton no, Kucinich argues about language, Richardson says he did it, and Biden says no. Richardson and Edwards elaborate at length.

8:34: Dodd is asked what is wrong with merit pay if teachers make a difference. Dodd talks about the standards being crucial, and education is the most important issue. He gets a loud cheer for attacking No Child Left Behind, and then gives a -yawn- laundry list of bills he was involved in. He calls for a single debate on education. Blitzer says that “they’re talking about education now” before changing the subject to unions. Kucinich is asked if there are any unions with which he disagrees. Kucinich says unions are key to human rights, and workers should be included in trade deals. Richardson says he wants to be the education President and teachers are underpaid, and NCLB should be abolished. Clinton says that merit pay should be by school, and that teachers who are bad should be weeded out. This debate is slightly better now that it’s not meta, but just about issues. Biden says that the judgment should be improving themselves outside of the classroom. Talks about his plan to spend more money on education.

8:42: Biden is asked about Pakistan, and the balance between democracy and a key allies. Biden says he’s talked personally to Musharaff and Bhutto, even before Bush did. Says he would take action on military aid and increasing economic aid to help the middle class. Richardson is asked about his proposal to cut off military aid helping the terrorists there. Richardson says that human rights should be more important than security (Carter-esque) and gives his own laundry list of conditions for aid. Says that Islamists get 15% if the vote in Iran, so moderates should win in free elections. When asked if human rights are more important than security, he says yes, and talks about Halliburton for some reason. Edwards talks about reasonable goals for Iran, including elections and nuclear weapons. He says that the ad hoc approach of dealing with nuclear weapons will not work, and instead there should be a long term international effort to rid the world of nuclear weapon. Obama says that the concepts of human rights and national security are not contradictory. Dodd starts out with criticizing Bush, and says obviously national security is more important, and that balance is necessary to prevent Islamists winning across the Mideast. He does not want to condition aid, and terminating the relationship leaves the country more dangerous. Clinton agrees with Dodd, and criticizes Bush on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Clinton cites calling for a Pakistani envoy earlier in the year. Kucinich complains about not getting to answer as Blitzer ignores him.

8:53: Richardson is asked about the surge if it is working. He says body counts are pointless, and no benchmarks are being met. Says troops need to get out and a political agreement negotiated. He’s not clear how he would do that. Kucinich is asked the same, and talks about his record on Iraq. Then criticizes the Democrats for funding. Kucinich says on Pakistan that aggression on Iraq and Iran helped cause these problems. Obama talks about regional diplomacy and working towards a political solution. Saying that going from horrible to intolerable is not a justification for the surge.

8:58: Do people who voted to open trade from China bear responsibility for faulty toys? Kucinich says yes, and says China has massive problems. Kucinich attacks Edwards for opening trade from China, and that it hurt workers. Also attacks him for being a trial lawyer. Edwards says that America’s trade policy has been a disaster. Edwards tries to deflect the attack on the Clintons for passing NAFTA but not universal health care. Edwards says the mistake is not holding China responsible, but bringing them into the WTO is not the problem. Clinton is asked if Perot (???) was right on NAFTA. Says that investigations should be done to make sure things are safe, and if not, nothing should be brought in. Says NAFTA was a mistake to the extent it did not do what they thought it would. Reminder about time outs on trade are needed. Dodd jumps in and reminds about Obama and Clinton supporting the Peruvian trade deal. Dodd adds that he calls for action on China. Obama clarifies that he did not flip-flop on Peru, and distinguishes it from Korea or CAFTA. Compares America to Japan on China, and failure on that. Biden says that action can be done under the WTO, and action can simply be taken. Candidates are all wanting more time.

9:06: Yucca question, what to do with the waste. Obama says that there’s no reason for Nevada to be the reason to repository for waste, and science is working on other options. He then talks about his energy plan broadly. Blitzer follows up where the waste should go, and Obama says that Blitzer needs to stop making assumptions. Richardson says he was in charge of the labs Obama mentioned. Richardson says he opposed it all his life (despite voting for it at one point) and that he would turn Yucca into a research facility, and nuclear is not an option. Calls for an energy revolution.

9:12: Is Clinton playing the gender card? Clinton says she’s playing the winning card, not the gender card. And adds that it’s because she is winning, to applause. Follow up about what she meant about the ‘boys club’ she mentioned. She says there have been ‘impediments’ to women and a glass ceiling for women. Everyone is asked about if Clinton is playing the gender card. Edwards says differences should be brought up. Edwards mentions Clinton taking money from lobbyists, and the crowd boos.

That wraps up part 1 of the worst debate so far this year. Except for Clinton, probably, who’s attacking others and then riding high on incredible support inside the auditorium.

Part 2, questions from voters.

9:27: First question from a mother of someone who did three tours of duty in Iraq who wants the troops to come home now. How would people show leadership on Iran. Biden says that it’s important to take a stand, referencing Kyl-Lieberman and it was a mistake that convinced the rest of the Muslim world that America is against them. Blitzer asks Clinton about voting for the resolution. Says the fear about the resolution is baseless but does not elaborate at all, and says aggressive diplomacy with Iran is needed, to just get them to the table. Says that Iranian Nation Guard has killed soldiers in Iraq and sanctioning them is part of diplomacy. Edwards is asked about Clinton’s comments, and says that stopping Bush and Cheney is the crucial element. Obama says the problem with the vote was not just about declaring the group a terrorist, but that it also said that forces should remain in Iraq to blunt diplomacy. Obama is asked about missing the vote and says it was a mistake. Everyone thanked the soldier and his mother. Kucinich tries to get in and Blitzer ignores him.

9:32: Another question from a mother of someone serving in Iraq, about troops making significantly less than private contractors, and also wishing Richardson a happy birthday. Richardson says he pull out private contractors and enlarge the military. Also talks about health care cards for veterans and mental health care.

9:34: Racial profiling question from an Arab-American (he may not be Arab-American, which would be horribly ironic). Edwards asmits he voted for the Patriot Act, but it needs to be changed, and illegal spying needs to stop, and Guantanamo needs to be closed and torture ended. Kucinich says he voted against the Patriot Act because he read it. Kucinich says people who are profiled are owed an apology. Says that people are changing their position far too often, and impeachment needs to be done now. Biden says that nothing in the Patriot Act allows profiling, it’s just a convenient excuse. Biden says that the two leading candidates voted to fund Guantanamo, but the standard should be a plan now.

9:39: Question about Lou Dobbs linking terrorism and illegal immigration despite no terrorist coming from the southern border. Richardson first says he was not in Washington for many of these votes, and Congress’ approval rating is lower than Cheney’s. Talks about declaring a border emergency in New Mexico, but it’s time to stop demonizing immigrants. Talks about tougher diplomacy with Mexico and no fence among otherwise a very conventional comprehensive plan. Dodd responds in Spanish at first. Says that a fence in some places would make sense. Says that upholding rights and security is important.

9:42: Question from a grandmother who works in a casino, about what happens when the Baby Boomers retire en masse and what happens with Social Security and Medicare. Obama thanks the Culinary workers. Talks about fiscal discipline will help but not cure everything. Says adjusting the payroll tax cap will help with Social Security. On Medicare, says it is tougher because of health care inflation. Says a universal health care plan with prevention will save money and save Medicare. Clinton is asked by Blitzer about criticisms from Obama but ignores it and talks about fiscal discipline of the 1990s. Says a bipartisan commission will help. Says Obama’s plan is a one billion tax increase on the middle class. Compares the attack to Romney and Giuliani, playing with numbers, and just involves the top 6%. Clinton says that there are some in the middle class who are in that. Says Obama called for a bipartisan solution on MTP. Clinton is maintaining her composure far more than Obama tonight.

9:54: Dodd is asked about SCOTUS nominees. Dodd talks about a clear judicial record, not an academic, but not believing in litmus tests, although he feels strongly about Roe v. Wade. Biden refuses to just answer Blitzer’s question, and says he has taken on justices. Biden says he will nominate a woman next, and a right to privacy exists under the 14th Amendment. Richardson gives four questions he would ask, if that is a litmus test, so be it. Kucinich said he would have a litmus test on abortion, and he will lower the need for abortions. Clinton says any nominee would have to share her belief about privacy. Credits Biden on the issue. Obama says he would not appoint anyone who did not believe in a right to privacy, and that the Court is meant to protect the vulnerable in the political process. Edwards essentially agrees with Richardson, and cites Brown v. Board and the courage needed on the SCOTUS.

10:01: Obama is asked about uniting the country regarding the Middle East, but says he did not say that Clinton could not unite the country. Says that he would hold regular foreign policy meetings with Republicans and Democrats. Clinton is asked about being too polarizing, says she heard the same thing in New York. Says she will enlist the best of the best. Biden answers the question by talking about being respected in the Congress. Richardson talks about his record and his approach to Israel, including an envoy.

10:08: For Clinton: Diamonds or pearls? She says she wants both. Biden says he likes diamonds.

That’s all.

My quick rankings:

1. Clinton

2. Edwards

3. Biden

4. Obama
5. Dodd
6. Kucinich
7. Richardson

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (11/05/07)

This podcast covers the MSNBC Democratic debate in Pennsylvania. Specifically, we discuss (1) Hillary Clinton and immigration, (2) the styles of Obama and John Edwards, (3) how the campaign has progressed since the debate, (4) Biden and his quips and more…

[Note: audio problems have been corrected in this podcast...many thanks for your patience]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/29/07)

This podcast covers: (1) Poll craziness - Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney; (2) Romney’s speech on faith; (3) Obama ratcheting up pressure on Clinton; (4) Consequences in Florida for DNC; (5) Chris Dodd on Meet The Press; (6) Tom Tancredo is not running for re-election; (7) Kucinich, Richardson and UFOs; (8) Edwards brings the hammer on UNC student reporter; (9) Mike Bloomberg buying Google AdWords; (10) and more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Edwards Campaign Attempts To Stifle Student News Video Critical Of Campaign

The Edwards campaign had a heavy handed response to a UNC student reporter’s video about the location of Edwards’ campaign headquarters. The report criticizes the campaign for placement of the campaign’s headquarters in an affluent North Carolina neighborhood instead of using the headquarters to draw attention to a poverty stricken area.

The Edwards campaign first contacted the student, Carla Babb, and demanded that she remove the video from YouTube. Babb refused. The campaign then contacted Babb’s professor, C.A. Tuggle, three times to demand that he force Babb to remove the video report. The campaign threatened that Edwards’ relations with the university could be jeopardized if Tuggle refused to pull the video.

I recognize that the campaign was upset, perhaps legitimately so, because they believe the story was misrepresented to them when access was initially requested. Even if their concern is legitimate, it does not justify their demand that the student pull the report. The video was clearly a commentary and not based on nor required any special information. If the student chose to criticize the campaign for their location of the headquarters, then that’s her right to do so, despite Edwards’ close ties to the university.

Moreover, it’s simply bad political strategy. The report was not scathing, nor was the criticism all that ground breaking. It was a student report that would not have received much attention had the campaign not created a story by demanding that the report be pulled down. You’d think Edwards’ communications people would know better than to create a story out of nothing, but alas, they don’t.

As an aside, I’ve personally experienced some of the strange antics that take place with Edwards’ press folks. Back in March, as I was preparing the report about the Edwards campaign blocking the archiving of JohnEdwards.com, I was placed on hold for quite a while, to have someone finally pick up the phone and promptly hang up. Repeated follow ups were all ignored.

Overall, it seems strange that a presidential campaign doesn’t recognize that the consequence of trying to stifle free press will be negative press. It’s a fairly basic component of politics and the fact that the campaign hasn’t quite accepted this yet may explain why Edwards has not been able to get the kind of attention he desires for his campaign theme of poverty.

[Photo Credit: SouthCarolinaCampaign2008.com]

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Target Hilldawg: GOP Charges Hillary Clinton With Illegal Snooping On Cell Phone Conversations, Requests Formal Investigation

Capitalizing on allegations initially made in Gerth and Van Natta’s book “Her Way” that Hillary Clinton spied on Republican rivals during Bill Clinton’s 1992. The content of the alleged intercepted cell phone calls was related to allegations of Bill Clinton’s sexual impropriety.

These charges of illegal invasion of privacy come as Hillary Clinton tackles the issue on the campaign trail. In August, Clinton voted against legislation that expanded the government’s warrantless wiretapping power. Recently, on the campaign trail Hillary discussed privacy, saying:

“Every president should save those powers for limited, critical situations…And when it comes to a regular program of searching for information that touches the privacy of ordinary Americans, those programs need to be monitored and reviewed as set out by Congress in cooperation with the judiciary.”

The Clinton campaign responded to the allegations in Gerth and Van Natta’s book by saying:

“We don’t comment on books that are utter and complete failures” (”Her Way” currently has an amazon rank above 40,000)

Despite the Clintons’ refusal to engage in discussions over these allegations, Republicans have seized the political opportunity, with one official saying:

“Hillary Clinton’s campaign hypocrisy continues to know no bounds. It is rather unbelievable that Clinton would listen in to conversations being conducted by political opponents, but refuse to allow our intelligence agencies to listen in to conversations being conducted by terrorists as they plot and plan to kill us. Team Clinton can expect to see and hear this over and over again over the course of the next year.”

In addition to planned attacks, the GOP will also be requesting that Arkansas Attorney General investigate the allegations of misconduct from 15 years ago.

Politically, I’m not sure how this will play just yet. The Clintons are effective at turning attacks against them into positives. It probably doesn’t help the Republican cause the attacks are rooted in an issue related to Bill Clinton’s sexual conduct. It seems that the majority of Americans simply don’t want to hear anymore allegations about Bill Clinton’s sexual misconduct from the past. Nevertheless, the charges also deal with an issue of privacy at a time when Hillary’s chief rival refers to her as “Bush/Cheney Lite” and concern amongst more liberal Democrats grows over her hawkish position with Iraq and Iran. These kinds of allegations could cause some of her supporters to defect to rivals either out of concern over the specific issue or because these strong attacks, so early, could hurt her perception of electability.

Basically, at this point and with the information available, it seems likely that these allegations won’t result in any substantial or lasting damage to Clinton’s campaign. The information related to the allegations are not substantial enough for her Republican rivals to jump on the issue and her Democratic rivals are certainly not going to touch this issue. Thus, without substantial names behind these charges, the allegations will likely end up in “vast right wing conspiracy” box.

[Photo Credit: The Slug]

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