Schweitzer Steers Pro-Gun Voters From McCain To Libertarian Barr

Libertarian Bob Barr play a role in this campaign yet - helping Obama win Montana.  Well aware of the recent polling that puts Obama slightly ahead of McCain in Montana (but still within the margin of error), the Obama Campaign held a press call with Montana’s Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

One of the topics: Guns

Schweitzer defended Obama’s position on gun rights assuring voters that Obama “ain’t ever going to take your gun away”, while suggesting that gun voters who aren’t sold on Obama may want to consider Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr.  He said:

“If guns are your primary issue, you’re probably not going to like either of these guys,” Schweitzer said during an telephone news conference put on by the Obama campaign.

He said a third option for voters for whom guns is their primary issue is to vote for Barr, a former Georgia congressman, “if you’re absolutely not going to vote for McCain or Obama on guns.”

The Obama Campaign later denied that Schweitzer was saying that voters should vote for Barr.  But, that’s just campaign-speak.  The suggestion was clear and it’s smart politics.  Whether or not it’s effective remains to be seen.

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Sullivan Begins To Turn On Obama

Andrew Sullivan thinks outloud about the “hubris of Obama:”

A few things have unsettled me these past couple of weeks about the Obama campaign. It is not the small adjustments to previously-held positions - FISA, the Second Amendment, Iraq. It’s a sense that Obama’s ample self-regard is lapsing into hubris. The signs of this are pretty trivial on the surface, but they are troubling nonetheless.

I can undestand calling Obama’s recent statements on the 2nd Amendment and Iraq “small adjustments.”  But it’s a big understatement to call Obama’s switch on FISA a “small adjustment;” it wasn’t a small adjustment, it was a significant departure from a previously held position.  I understand the political reasons for doing so.  But, let’s call it what it is.  The discussion shouldn’t be about whether it was a major departure from a previously held position.  Rather, the debate should be whether or not the political gains are worth the cost.

Sullivan goes on to criticize Obama for the Obama seal (which the campaign dropped fast), moving his convention speech outside and for allowing his daughters to be interviewed.  He concludes:

Any one of these misjudgments would be a trivial lapse - and we all make mistakes. It’s the combination that concerns me - and the possibility that this campaign is becoming far too cocky for its own good.

I point this out for a few reasons:

• First, we have been saying for some time that Obama runs the risk of alienating supporters with some of his campaign tactics (see our most receent podcast for a thorough discussion).
• Second, if a die-hard supporter like Sullivan is already becomming irritated with Obama, I wonder how widespread that sentiment is amongst Obama supporters.  I don’t think that this sentiment is widespread, bu I do think (as I have been saying for a few weeks) that it has the potential to, unless some adjustments are made.
• Third, it’s yet another reason to support the conention that Andrew Sullivan is completely overrated.  He is too often either dead wrong or overstates a case so much that he has to constantly reverse himself down the road.  Although, it usually takes Sullivan a bit longer than a few weeks to realize how wrong he was.  I guess now that Hillary’s out the race, Sullivan’s blind support for Obama just doesn’t give him the same thrill anymore.

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McCain and Obama Statements on DC v. Heller

McCain:
Today’s decision is a landmark victory for Second Amendment freedom in the United States. For this first time in the history of our Republic, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed that the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms was and is an individual right as intended by our Founding Fathers. I applaud this decision as well as the overturning of the District of Columbia’s ban on handguns and limitations on the ability to use firearms for self-defense.

Unlike Senator Obama, who refused to join me in signing a bipartisan amicus brief, I was pleased to express my support and call for the ruling issued today. Today’s ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller makes clear that other municipalities like Chicago that have banned handguns have infringed on the constitutional rights of Americans. Unlike the elitist view that believes Americans cling to guns out of bitterness, today’s ruling recognizes that gun ownership is a fundamental right — sacred, just as the right to free speech and assembly.

This ruling does not mark the end of our struggle against those who seek to limit the rights of law-abiding citizens. We must always remain vigilant in defense of our freedoms. But today, the Supreme Court ended forever the specious argument that the Second Amendment did not confer an individual right to keep and bear arms.

Obama:
“I have always believed that the Second Amendment protects the right of individuals to bear arms, but I also identify with the need for crime-ravaged communities to save their children from the violence that plagues our streets through common-sense, effective safety measures. The Supreme Court has now endorsed that view, and while it ruled that the D.C. gun ban went too far, Justice Scalia himself acknowledged that this right is not absolute and subject to reasonable regulations enacted by local communities to keep their streets safe. Today’s ruling, the first clear statement on this issue in 127 years, will provide much-needed guidance to local jurisdictions across the country.

“As President, I will uphold the constitutional rights of law-abiding gun-owners, hunters, and sportsmen. I know that what works in Chicago may not work in Cheyenne. We can work together to enact common-sense laws, like closing the gun show loophole and improving our background check system, so that guns do not fall into the hands of terrorists or criminals. Today’s decision reinforces that if we act responsibly, we can both protect the constitutional right to bear arms and keep our communities and our children safe.”

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Live Blog Of MSNBC Democratic Debate In Las Vegas, Nevada (January 15, 2007)

8:20: Dennis Kucinich has apparently lost his appeal and will not be appearing on stage tonight. That leaves Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

8:47: Exit polls and early results seem to indicate a good night for Romney in Michigan, even though a few polls are still open.

8:53: Over to MSNBC. Their debate graphic is a boxing ring, which immediately makes me wonder if the debate is rigged. I’m affirmed in that stance by the news that Hillary Clinton was endorsed by and will campaign with Ugly Betty.

8:54: Chuck Todd is in the house, and predicts race will come up on the birthday of MLK.

8:56: Candidates are paraded on stage, Obama, Clinton, Edwards left to right. Harry Reid shows up to hug everybody and lead the debate in a moment of ceremonial non-productivity.

8:57: They’re sitting in a conference table that looks like it was an outcast from a bad King Arthur movie. Chuck Todd wonders what questions the candidates will ask each other, as if they’ll be anything really different. Olbermann is curious if the debate format makes it harder to attack someone sitting down. Seriously, that’s the analysis you’re missing. Apparently Republicans are dying to sit down, too.

9:00: Mitt Romney gets his big win in Michigan, and the Republican race is officially mucked up.

9:02: Harry Reid gets another shout out in yet another moment where nothing is accomplished. I think that’s enough Reid-karma for tonight. No applause tonight, and lights for time. There’s another moderator with just email questions.

9:04: Question to Clinton on how did we get here on race. Clinton says neither race nor gender matters, and cites Edwards being shockingly the son of a mill worker. Clinton says sometimes supporters are ‘uncontrollable’ in their exuberance. She recognizes MLK. Obama gets the same question and agrees. Edwards agrees and decides to add that he lived in the south when there was segregation there. He saw it! He lived with it! He takes a bold stance against going back to segregation.

9:09: On accountability, Russert asks if he regrets pushing the story. Obama agrees with Clinton that there were overzealous staffers, and that’s why he spoke yesterday. He says it was not a deliberate attempt to marginalize him as “the” black candidate. Russert asks about his campaign support falling off in NH. Umm, Tim, Clinton got a ten point bounce; Obama stayed more or less where he was. Obama says change happens because of what people say, not what candidates say. Russert asks if Robert Johnson will be asked to leave Clinton’s campaign after the faux pas. Clinton mentions the clarification he issued (that was complete BS) and moves on to a general line about people listening to what candidates say, not endorsers. Clinton says the comments were out of bounds “and he said that.” True, if today is opposites day.

9:15: Why choose between a black man or a woman? Edwards says it is about change and what type of change you want, etc. It’s personal for him! What is a white male to do? The audience laughs at the inanity of the question. Fifteen minutes in, and we’ve got undeniably the worst question of the night. Can we get to something that matters?

9:17: Question on women voting for Obama. Was his “likable enough” comment the cause of his loss? Obama points out how much of a non issue this is. I’m starting to regret live blogging. Get to something that at least might matter, please. Question for Edwards on whether he tag teamed with Obama. Edwards takes a bold stance in favor of telling the truth. Clinton gives him the stare of death.

9:22: Someone starts yelling in the back of the room briefly. Clinton is asked about the general election race. Clinton says there will be unity, and that what matters is who is ready on day 1, etc. She cites the highest home foreclosure rate in the country. Her experience is “rooted in the voices” she has heard. When asked if Edwards and Obama are prepared enough, she says that is up to the voters to decide. Obama is asked about saying he is not an executive officer. He says that being President means setting an agenda and having a vision, not making sure paperwork is done effectively. Bold argument to make, in that it’s almost surely going to be used against him should he be nominated.

9:26: Greatest strength and weaknesses: Obama, bringing people together. His weakness is organizing his desk, he needs people around him to do that. Edwards’ greatest strength is fighting for his whole life. He had to fight to survive! His weakness is a powerful emotional response. He tells a story about how he feels it in a personal way. Clinton says she wants to be an instrument for helping children. Change, Change, Change. Her weakness is impatience for not getting more change! Change! She segues into an attack on Obama, but that being president is being an executive officer. She says Bush failed at managing the bureaucracy. Obama says you do have to be a good manager, and hold your team accountable. He says in a light moment Bush was always on time and never lost any papers, but did not bring in different perspectives.

9:33: Question for Obama about the Muslim emails and slurs. He confirms he is a Christian and took the oath on a Bible, and leads the pledge of allegiance on occasion. He says people are smarter than to believe that. Again cites real issues that could be discussed, although denying this isn’t as much as a waste of time as the first 15 minutes.

9:39: Back from commercials.

9:40: Clinton is asked about Citigroup and Merrill Lynch getting loans from overseas. Clinton says they are ’sovereign wealth funds.’ She would like to know more, but looks at why this happened, specifically citing these companies betting on subprime mortgages. Edwards agrees with Clinton on calls for transparency. He further says all growth is as a result of the top 1% or multinational corporations. (Fact check?) He says the middle class does not feel secure in their jobs or health insurance. Obama says the lack of an energy policy is at root of the problem. He also says it happened because there was a lack of oversight by the Bush administration.

9:45: Edwards regrets his vote on the bankruptcy bill in 2001. He says universal health care and fighting for more change can help. He says getting rid of banks as an intermediary in student loans also can help. Clinton also regrets her vote on the 2001 bill, and points out it does not happen. She talks about changes to regulation that could help prevent another Countrywide disaster. Obama says he opposed both bankruptcy bills, and cites a bill he submitted a year and half ago. Cites the influence of special interest lobbyists on the issue. Calls for relief for those who cannot meet payments for health care based reasons.

9:52: Obama is asked about changes to the tax codes, and says he would consider exempting the middle class from dividends and capital gains, but that those like Buffet should not be taxed at a lower rate than his secretary. Refers to Edwards’ example of the top 1 percent. Clinton is asked about long term effects of the foreclosures. She says that interest rates will stabilize the market, and is in line with what the Fed is doing in the monetary area of the economy. Talks more about her stimulus program, which is intended for now, and not on or after inauguration, so I’ll leave the details out. Joking referral to timed lights.

9:58: Time for questions from each candidate to the others. Edwards says Obama recently passed Clinton for how much they raised from drug companies. Obama talks about the details of the donations not being directly from the companies, and that he has a record fo small donations. He says he wants to fight for public financing of campaigns. Apparently, there’s now only one question. Clinton says Bush is making the argument that he can make an agreement with the government in Iraq and have it be binding without passing the Senate. Obama says “Well we can work on this Hillary.” He says there is unity on the matter. Obama talks at length about his views on Iraq as Clinton looks like she loses interest. Clinton agrees on the pledge to start withdrawing troops, and Edwards’ cites his aggressiveness. Russert wonders why they did not pledge to him to be out by 2013. Obama says there may be a need for some troop presence to protect the embassy and fight Al Qaeda. Clinton says it is more than Bush, saying McCain wants troops there for 100 years. Edwards says everyone wants to protect the embassy, but there will be no permanent bases. Obama says you are either going after terrorists or you are not. Williams seems to indicate that this is his question. Edwards says he will keep troops in Kuwait, and that is different because it is not an occupation.

10:13: Back from the last commercial. Will she vigorously enforce statutes that require ROTC and military recruiters to have campus access? Yes. She talks at length about the valor of troops, and signing bonuses being taken away from wounded soldiers. She says campuses can work out ways aside from ROTC as a means of meeting the standard. Obama also says yes, saying how much more poorer communities are bearing the burden of fighting the war. Talks about an enlargement of the army to help out people going on multiple cycles. Edwards will also enforce it. He says its more than those who are fighting, but also homeless voters. Talks about narrowing gap between regular workers and military workers. Obama says he could not believe veterans paid for meals and phone calls in Walter Reed. Clinton says the traumatic brain injury in particular is problematic.

10:20: Yucca Mountain time! Williams points out that everyone promises to end it. Obama says he will end Yucca, as it is not based on sound science, and does not want to spend billions more on a situation that is not safe. He wants to get experts together. Clinton voted against it and held a hearing on it. Clinton points out that an Obama supporter wants Yucca and Edwards voted for it twice. Obama says its a testimony to the science that he never supported it as Clinton gives him the ‘who are you kidding’ face. Edwards says he is against it, but moreover is against nuclear power. Clinton points out that he voted for it, but Edwards points out that that was before some documents were revealed as forged, and he changed on it many years ago.

10:24: Obama defends his vote on the Energy Bill because of how much of an investment it had for green energy. Says if he could find a safe way to make nuclear power than it should be on the table. Obama wants to see where the science goes. Clinton says that the Energy Bill was the Cheney-Lobbyist bill that had enormous giveaways. Talks about ‘breaking the lock’ of special interests, as suddenly Obama is status quo and Clinton is change.

10:28: Edwards says the nuclear power does not solve the problem, and therefore cannot be part of the problem (?). He says Clinton raised more money from the lobbyists she referred to than anyone else. He says investing in more biofuels could help, and a moratorium on coal power plants. Clinton says her plan has been put forward, and does not allow for more coal plants. Obama talks about reducing the consumption of energy and the need to get more efficient.

10:32: Why not English as an official language? Edwards talks about a path to citizenship, and earned citizenship, as Williams points out that does not answer the question at all. He talks about learning to speak English to become a citizen.

10:33: Clinton is asked about the statement of a pollster who said there was not a lot of affinity of Latino voters for black candidates. She says it is a historical analysis, but that there needs to be focus on issues, saying she regrets not talking about more black and brown issues tonight.

10:35: Obama says Latinos in Illinois voted for him. He specifically cites standing with Kennedy and McCain during the immigration debate.

10:36: Email question for Obama about black dropouts from schools. Obama says it is about youth starting behind, and that early childhood education is critical early on. Obama talks about families and black fathers needing to do more. Clinton talks about families being crucial, and about a school she helped found in New York. Edwards says universal pre-K for every children is needed, as are second chance schools.

10:39: The leading cause of death for young men is gun violence. Clinton is asked about statements she made about requiring license for guns. Clinton says she is against illegal guns but is a realist. She says she wants a registry of people who are felons or mentally ill. She also talks about the assault weapons ban. Obama also allows that he cannot get a mandatory registry done. He talks about actions on illegal guns getting fixed. Talks about the difference between lawful gun owners and students who are subject to violence. Edwards says it is important to protect second Amendment rights, and that you can also protect against assault weapons. Anyone want to mention guns as protection? Anyone? Bueller?

10:47: Brian Williams welcomes us back to Los Angeles and people jeer, and Williams rubs in that he’s up $130. Williams asks Clinton about saying Bush threatened in 2004, but said that Al Qaeda attacked Gordon Brown. She stands by her comments that ‘we face a very serious adversary.” Williams is briefly shown on camera and looks to be falling asleep. Obama says America has been dominated by a politics of fear since 9/11, and compliments Clinton for her work in New York, but that citing it in the way Clinton did was a politics of fear. Says Iraq was a consequence of such thinking. Clinton clarifies to Russert that she was not saying Obama would be tested quicker than her, but rather that Al Qaeda tested Brown quickly. She says there is a difference between using fear like Bush and recognizing the gravity of the spectre of terrorism.

10:54: Edwards is asked if it was appropriate for him to talk to Musharraf the day Bhutto died. Edwards says he only requested a call, and gave tough talk to Musharraf, including calls for democratization and independent investigators.

10:56: When did you decide to run for President? Clinton, over New Years a year ago. She somehow segues to a plug for a town hall in Reno. I wonder if Dangle is handling security. Edwards made the decision in December a year ago. Obama says the time was the same, in December in 06. He touts his family handling the stress. He says the question is not whether he could win, but whether he should. None of these timeframes are accurate in any but the most esoteric way.

And that’s a wrap, for what was really not that memorable a debate.

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Live Blog Of ABC News/Fox News/WMUR Republican Debate In New Hampshire (01/05/07)

This evening, the Republican presidential candidates will participate in the the ABC News/Facebook/WMUR debate in New Hampshire. The participating candidates are Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

7:00: Charles Gibson is explaining the criteria for being in the debate, not mentioning who was excluded. Gibson says the first 45 minutes will be discussions on three topics (perhaps akin to the NPR debate). The second half will be a more traditional format.

7:03: Diane Sawyer’s disembodied voice takes over, as she discusses the situation with Stephanopoulos. They review poll information and what not of both sides, noting that Obama and McCain have momentum.

7:05: ABC has their political team lined up as if they’re about to film a glamor shot of them walking down the street.

7:06: Facebook is here! Diane Sawyer says Facebook does not decide the debate, as they segue into people on the streets.

7:07: The press room is in disarray as the internet suddenly goes out.

7:08: The Republicans are on stage, left to right: McCain, Thompson, Paul, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani, who is smiling as broadly as possible. They have desks.

7:09: Candidate George Bush is contrasted with Bush at war. Would the candidates run against Bush’s foreign policy or for it?

7:11: Huckabee says there are times of arrogance, and that strength has to be used with full understanding of strength, specifically referencing Rumsfeld. Says we should go to war with the army we need, and with irresistible force, and not letting politicians interrupt.

7:12: Thompson says Huckabee has changed, that the number of troops was not what Huckabee was referencing. Says we are not arrogant, and that a war with radical Islam has been declared against us. Says he agrees there was a flawed strategy, and that they are winning now.
7:14: Giuliani references Bush going on offense after 9/11 to prevent another attack, and positive changes have been instituted as well as mistakes having been made. Giuliani says a major problem is that the military is far too small.

7:15: Gibson wonders if they believe in the Bush doctrine of preemptive war if the country feels threatened. McCain says he agrees and gives Bush credit for not having another attack in America since 9/11, since Bush would have been blamed for any other attack. Says America is not safe, but America is safer. McCain says he was the only one who disagreed at the time with Rumsfeld, but there is success now in Iraq. References Petraeus. Also McCain thanks Giuliani for leadership on 9/11.

7:17: Paul says he agreed with the foreign policy that Bush ran on, and compares Bush’s foreign policy to Clinton’s. Says this is the first time a nation accepted as a policy that “we start the wars.” Talks of the nature of the threat of terrorism. Says America is not attacked because it is free and prosperous, but rather because we invade and occupy, and have done so long before 9/11.

7:19: Romney says Paul does not understand radical jihadism, as it is intent on bringing down western and free governments. Romney says strategy has to be moved from military threats to help move Islam towards rule of law in the Middle East to help them, and that the military is part of the solution.

7:21: Thompson says preemption did not suddenly appear as an option. Says America has many threats now, and that different weaponry is being faced, not Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Says we should go in where “we should and where we are able to.”

7:22: Giuliani says he gave back 10 million to Saudis, and has nothing to do with foreign policy, but about perverting religion into hating freedom of religion and freedom of women.

7:23: Paul wants everyone to imagine if someone did this to us. Romney interrupts and says that Paul is reading the propaganda not their writings. Cites Bhutto and Sadat as Paul tries to interrupt back in vain. Thompson asked who we invaded before 9/11, and Paul says there was bases.

7:25: Huckabee says that he supported the surge and the President when Romney did not and Romney criticized Bush on 60 Minutes, but he is not running for Bush’s third term. Everyone tries to interrupt, and Huckabee says the threat comes from the jihadists, not Islam.

7:26: Romney and Huckabee argue over whether he read Huckabee’s article. Romney said he supported the surge from the beginning and McCain deserves credit, and to not mischaracterize his position. Huckabee rebuts “Which one?” to a huge WHOA in the press room. He half-heartedly defends himself before Paul gets the nod.

7:29: Paul asks why people attack the US and not Switzerland. Giuliani gives a laundry list of non-American sites such as Bali and the Munich Olympics. This is escalating into a giant argument.

7:30: Giuliani says there is a need for more interaction and trade. Paul asks why we support their dictators. A little more yelling at him, and Gibson interacts.

7:31: Question from Bush! He asks what principles people believe in.

7:32: McCain talks about principles — focuses on his basic campaign theme of restoring trust in government. Chides his opponents for not backing the surge as strongly as he did, then attacks Democrats saying that if we had done what they wanted “Al Qaeda would be trumpeting around the world.”

7:34: Now, onto McCain’s principles…this should be brief. And as expected, he doesn’t really discuss principles other than family and the desire to strengthen family through better schools, healthcare, economy and security. *shock* Romney didn’t actually discuss his principles.

7:37: Gibson goes over the flip-flop record of each candidate. Giuliani says that there are some beliefs you change and some you never will. Says even Reagan could not accomplish every single thing he wanted, but the general philosophy stays the same. Huckabee says its about principles deep inside us. Huckabee cites the Declaration of Independence. This is getting a lot of eye rolls in this room but will go over great among actual people. (Reporters are not people, I have learned.)

7:39: Not a right to be happy, but to pursue happiness. Policies reflect challenges of the moment, and priorities certainly change.

7:40: Thompson says principles should be based on the Constitution and separation of powers and federalism, and that you can learn from looking at what the founders stated. Cites the 10th Amendment

7:42: Paul asks why there are deviations from the Constitution; cites the declaration of war, monetary system, welfare state. Asks why we treat others like a bully. He is starting to rant about all his beliefs at once. He’s losing his self control.

7:43: Moving on to health care. News clip say that forcing people to buy their own, and not employer based is a larger change. Gibson says we are the only country that does not insure everyone.

7:44: Giuliani says we have the best health care system in the world. He says that people come to the US for health care. Thompson and McCain agree. Giuliani says the problem is not enough people buying their own health care.

7:45: Gibson says the math of tax cuts does not add up.

7:46: McCain says the problem is not quality, but inflation that needs to be dealt with so that health care costs become reasonable. He does the preventative measures schtick, and concludes by insulting Canadian medicare.

7:48: Romney touts the Massachusetts health care plan, which required no new money. Romney says a connector between people and the companies helps and solves the problems the report mentioned. Romney should delve into details more often, he’s really at his best right here. Finishes by attacking Hillarycare.

7:49: Paul says the problem is the trillion dollar war, although inflation is a problem. Paul mentions people in America going to India for heart surgery. (Medical tourism is real). Talks about borrowing money from China to finance the war. Good, but he’s getting shrill again.

7:50: Thompson has to be woken up to answer the question. Seriously. He’s stunned by Ron Paul. Paul jokes about Thompson trying to understand, and that sacrificing care is not something people want to do. Says the markets work, but total coverage will probably never be achieved.

7:52: Romney says he has not backed off of mandates, as Thompson jokes about him. Says the principle of personal responsibility is key. Thompson asks what the penalty for not agreeing to the mandate. Says the question is personal responsibility for those who can buy insurance. Says he would not mandate his plan at the federal level, but he would recommend it for every state, but disagreements are acceptable, citing Schwarzenegger.

7:55: Huckabee attacks the health care system, and how it waits until catastrophic injury, and prevention is key. He’s said this before.

7:56: Romney and Giuliani both try to jump in and Giuliani wins, touting his health savings account, that incentivizes wellness. This is not really persuasive in the amounts Giuliani talks about.

7:57: Gibson challenges people to substantively address real problems with paying for health care and they all demur from him. Weak.

7:58: McCain says that payment should be on totality, not individually based. He says the pharmaceutical companies are a problem and should compete. Romney says htey are not the problem, McCain interrupts that they are. Romney cites certain problems in the details and again is really compelling compared to him addressing broad themes.

Commercial Break!

8:04: Gibson jokes that no one ran away. Question regarding illegal immigration on McCain. Does he have the same plan for a path to citizenship?

8:05: McCain says sure but that the American people lost faith in government and that the borders need to be secured. Also says those illegals who committed crimes ought be deported. Also that there should be temporary worker program. Says ultimately they are God’s children and the issue needs to be dealt with delicately.

8:07: Romney says that allowing people to stay here is a form of amnesty, and there should be no pathway to legalization for those who are here. Tancredo-ish for sure. Says it is unfair for those to stay. McCain tries to interrupt to point out the pragmatic problems.

8:09: Giuliani says there should be a system at the borders, and that the priority has to be illegal immigrants who are here who have committed crimes, citing Romney’s idea as unrealistic. Cites his plan for an ID card, and those who do not come forward should be deported.

8:10: McCain says Romney described his plan as not amnesty and was fair. Romney says it is a technicality, and Giuliani tries to interrupt. Romney says all plans were reasonable but did not endorse them. McCain says it was more than a fine, and says Romney “can spend all your fortune on attack ads but it still will not be true” to another WHOA in the press room. Romney is taking a beating. Romney rebuts saying allowing people to stay here is amnesty, and there should be no special right. They’re talking over each other and McCain says grandmothers should not be deported. Thompson says Romney had a quote about supporting the plan, Romney says he was misquoted, and McCain with another zing as he says if you keep changing your positions that you will be misquoted. Lots of cross talk and Romney agrees that deporting 12 million is unreasonable. Giuliani says Reagan did amnesty, and would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials. Wow. Giuliani says that what has to be done is stopping it at the border and imposing conditions is not amnesty. Differentiates the Giuliani/McCain plan from the Thompson/Romney plan on penalties. Thompson says rewarding people for behavior in any way is amnesty. Paul and Huckabee are completely staying out of this. Thompson says the problem is taking responsibility on the issue, and sanctuary cities are a problem, such as Giuliani’s NYC. Giuliani says that he only allowed children to go to school, and illegals to go to the hospital and report crimes. Thompson says that Giuliani tried to sue to overcome a bill outlawing amnesty.

8:19: Huckabee is brought in with a weird line that no one here understands. He says that a fence can be built in 18 months, and that he agrees with Thompson that it is about national security. Says people should then go back to get in the back of the line, because people in the US should not live in fear.

8:21: Paul says he gets worried about a tamper proof ID because everyone would logically have to have such an ID. Says that the excessive welfare state is the root of the problem, and are an incentive for people to come. Romney wants to understand that the discussion is about illegal immigration not legal immigration.

8:23: What if Obama is the nominee? Why not vote for Obama specifically? Silly sort of question. Says Obama’s health care plan would break the bank. Says Washington is the problem. Says that he would cite change he brought in the private sector and in the Olympics.

8:25: Thompson says Obama adopted the positions of every liberal interest group, and that he’s not been definitive on that so far. Talks about lowering taxes and avoiding the welfare state that would hurt America in terms of national security.

8:27: McCain says that he agrees Romney is the candidate of change. Says Obama has no security credentials. Romney says the personal barbs are not necessary. Romney says experience did not matter in Iowa and a record is not enough. Giuliani says Obama has no executive experience; says it could be change for bad. Says Obama voted on a timetable for retreat. Huckabee cites differences on 2nd Amendment and the role of government, and taxes and national defense and same sex marriage. He points to Huckabee for broadening the debate. Says that on the other hand that Obama excites people about leading across the spectrum.

8:31: Paul cites similarities to Obama, in that their campaigns both appeal to youth. He says personal liberty and economic arguments are the difference. He finishes by criticizing the welfare state.

8:32: Question about high gas prices.

8:33: Paul says gas prices are inflationary, as it has raised as gold stayed flat. Also says that oil has dramatically increased as a result of the war. Talks about the devaluing of the dollar causing the problem.

8:34: McCain says some of the oil money will go to terrorists and dictators, and greenhouse gases need to be addressed, and technology has to be reduced. He cites enough evidence that the planet could be in danger. No one jumps in to that.

8:35: Is Thompson worried about excess profits of oil companies? He takes note of it, but says nothing can be done. Says throwing rocks at each other will do nothing; cites Chinese demand for oil. He says diversification of oil suppliers is necessary, along with clean coal. Says there is no strong regulation in this country. (Chrysler? Airlines?) Giuliani says an Apollo program has to be done to diversify. Cites nuclear power specifically and a lack of progress in the last 30 years. Cites bipartisanship in getting a man on the moon. Huckabee says lower taxes on innovation would incentify things. Also dramatic incentives, such as a billion dollar reward on a 100mpg car. Thompson cracks that there will be no windfall profit tax on that. He says that McCain is right that we pay for both sides of the war on terror. Romney says we can get to where these people say but it will require a far bigger investment in innovation. Says that defense against tort lawsuits is a root of the problem.

And it is over!

Gibson introduces the Democratic candidates, and they all briefly share the stage. A whole bunch of really awkward handshakes and quite a few hugs! When Rudy and Hillary met each other, there’s some hoots and hollers in the press room.

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Bloomberg Featured In Ads In Iowa And New Hampshire

New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg may deny that he’s running for president, but you wouldn’t be able to guess that with his Google Adwords buy, issuing a statement on international events and now by running newspaper ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Yesterday, Mayors Against Illegal Guns ran ads in The Des Moines Register and The New Hampshire Union Leader that asked where the candidates stand on illegal guns and contained a picture of Mayor Bloomberg and several other mayors from the organization.

It was a gentle reminder about the questionnaire that the organization submitted to all the campaigns earlier this month that they asked the campaigns to return to them by January 2, 2008. Thus far, none of the surveys have been turned in yet.

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What Does Richardson’s Rise Say About Voters? And Can He Keep It Up?

I linked this the other day, but I wanted to talk more about it. Jim Geraghty discussed the rise of Bill Richardson in the polls despite awful debate performances and numerous gaffes. He concluded:

Right now it’s campaign correspondents and tuned-in Democratic activists who are chuckling over Richardson’s gaffes. But if he were to actually gain enough support to really threaten one of the big three, we would see his unflattering moments spotlighted in attack ads. The slips of the tongue might not seem so harmless. Those rumored skeletons in the closet might get a bit more attention. Less-attentive voters in those early states might see the side of Richardson that the rest of us have noticed, the genial, bumbling, hopelessly unkempt Saturday Night Live skit waiting to happen.

Maybe it’s moot, maybe Richardson has peaked. Or maybe he’s demonstrating that slow and steady wins at least part of the race, and he’s about to jump into first tier. Or maybe, as Goldman said, nobody knows anything.

The probable answer is his resume, as evidenced by his tremendous ads (mostly because they are funny and easy to connect with while also conveying his lengthy resume). The secondary answer is that the voters are not bothered by poor debate performances or so-called ‘gaffes’ at this early stage of the election. The difference is probably related to what type of election it is. Many voters in the general election pay only light attention, so a gaffe here or there can make the difference. The self-selecting voter group in the primary seems to use more discretion on the whole. The catch, though, is that there’s a clear point when people start to pay attention to the primary election. This chart also previously linked says the same.

This, in turn, is a reason why many national polls are fairly useless. People in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and possible Nevada may have started to pay attention to the race, but in any other race, its a crapshoot on whether they’ve started to tune in, and that even goes for likely primary voters. That’s also a reason why negative poll numbers are more important than who is up and who is down. People tend to change their mind.

But back to Richardson. He’s practically a gaffe machine and moving up in the polls. This seems to indicate that primary voters this year are willing to look to see what a candidate really stands for and judge him on that - once they’re convinced of course that someone is presidential timber. That’s the first hurdle, one that Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd, and Biden on the democratic side really haven’t cleared, and one that will probably stick with Obama for a while given his lack of national political experience.

Looking at comments by voters where Richardson is appearing, he’s just getting noticed now in many places. Take a stop in Wyoming for fundraising over the past few days (my emphasis):

Richardson might be the most qualified and seasoned of the eight Democrats eyeing the White House—in terms of federal policy-making, international relations and executive experience running a state—who still struggles with the top-tier name-recognition separating him from Obama, Clinton and Edwards. More than one donor at Tuesday’s fund-raiser said they only realized Richardson’s long and impressive resume within the last two weeks.

“I’ve been converted,” the college-age daughter of a donor said after meeting and listening to Richardson speak on energy and Iraq for about an hour before the governor left the fund-raiser, jetting out of the state Tuesday night for a Wednesday radio interview. “He really knows so much about everything.”

He’s also using a political liability nationally in the primary as a strength when campaigning in the west:

Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson pitched Nevada union members today on western issues and guns.

The New Mexico governor urged delegates to the Nevada AFL-CIO convention in Reno to back him as a fellow Westerner based on his knowledge of regional issues.

As he put it, “We’ve got to get somebody who is electable. Not somebody who can just win on the East Coast and far West Coast, but somebody who is strong and has the values of working men and women.”

And he told the Nevada union gathering he’s somebody who has been endorsed by the N-R-A.

He added, “I’m telling you because when I say it everywhere else, I get booed.”

Richardson thus far is doing a very good job emphasizing his positives: his resume is longer than anyone else’s, and it’s at the center of his ads. He’s positioning himself well to gain support on issues like Iraq. And his differences on issues like guns he uses to gain support, while downplaying it in circles where it would cost him support.

In the end, though, his history has to catch up with him. For someone to be so inept When pressed about being a Red Sox or Yankee fan that he ends up claiming both is symbolic of the Richardson campaign thus far:

MR. RUSSERT: You spent a lot of time in, in Massachusetts. Are you a Red Sox fan?

GOV. RICHARDSON: I’m a Red Sox fan, but I got into trouble in New Hampshire. You know why? Because I said…

MR. RUSSERT: Luis Tiant, the fund-raiser. But, now, governor, this is very serious. In your book on page 18 it says…

GOV. RICHARDSON: No, about Mickey Mantle?

MR. RUSSERT: You said you’re a Yankee fan!

GOV. RICHARDSON: No, no, no. I said—no, no, no.

MR. RUSSERT: I mean, you can, you can…

GOV. RICHARDSON: No, no, no, no.

MR. RUSSERT: …you can have different views on immigration, assault weapons…

GOV. RICHARDSON: I, no no no no. No, what I said…

MR. RUSSERT: But when it comes to Red Sox, Yankees.

GOV. RICHARDSON: What I said, the Associated Press asked me, “If you weren’t running for president, if you weren’t running for president, what would you rather be?” I’ve always been a Red Sox fan, but I said if I weren’t running for president I would like to be number seven, Mickey Mantle, playing center field for the New York Yankees.

MR. RUSSERT: “Because of Mickey Mantle, I became a Yankee fan.”

GOV. RICHARDSON: I, my favorite team has always been the Red Sox.

MR. RUSSERT: You’re a Red Sox fan.

GOV. RICHARDSON: I’m a Red Sox fan.

MR. RUSSERT: End of subject.

GOV. RICHARDSON: End of subject.

MR. RUSSERT: You better get rid of this book.

GOV. RICHARDSON: Oh, no! I’m also a Yankee fan. I also like…

MR. RUSSERT: Oh, now, wait a minute!

GOV. RICHARDSON: You can—Tim…

MR. RUSSERT: I guarantee…

GOV. RICHARDSON: No, I know, I got in trouble…

MR. RUSSERT: …if you go—if you go to Yankee Stadium or Fenway, you cannot be both.

GOV. RICHARDSON: But I like—Mickey Mantle was my hero. If I weren’t running for president, and the Associated Press asked me, I’d play center field for the New York—I wanted to be number seven. And—but I still love the Red Sox as a team. I mean, this is the thing about me, Tim. I can bring people together. I can unify people.

MR. RUSSERT: Yankee fans and Red Sox fans?

GOV. RICHARDSON: Yes.

MR. RUSSERT: Not a chance.

GOV. RICHARDSON: Well, I bet you I can.

The problem for Richardson is that when other people start talking about his resume and performance, they’ll be far less complimentary than Richardson is. Bill Richardson is moving up the polls because he’s talking about his resume. When other people start doing so, they’re going to be far more critical than Richardson is on himself….

As John Dickerson wrote of that MTP appearance:

Richardson also misplayed the candor card. Seven times in the broadcast, he used phrases like “I made a mistake” or “I shouldn’t have said that.” After six years of an error-ridden Bush administration in which it has taken eons for the president to offer even limited mumbles about any errors, we should applaud candidates who admit mistakes. We should also encourage them to tell us what they’ve learned from their wrong turns. But there is surely a limit to the number of mistakes you can admit to before it starts to hurt your authority, and Richardson seemed to zip by it.

[Photo Credit: New West]

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Daily Links (August 21, 2007): The Duke of Anbar?

Today’s worthy reads….

• Andrew Sullivan has proof that it’s still very early in the election.
• Mike Huckabee is really ramping up criticism of Mitt Romney.
• Giuliani and Fred Thompson are trading shots over New York City gun laws.
• Bill Richardson plays God and says what he would do in his first six days.
• A Bush insider predicts Obama has a 50-50 shot at winning. Interesting, given Rove’s statements of the past week.
• TPM Cafe says that Obama’s turnout claims may be statistically impossible in some states.
• A brief review of Fred Thompson’s address to the VFW, including him accidentally worrying about insurgents being named a Duke or Baron.
• Chris Dodd may have flip-flopped on impeaching Alberto Gonzalez.
• Ron Paul warns that the NAFTA Superhighway is a terrible idea.
• Even Kucinich’s hometown paper touts how much of a longshot he is.
• McCain ordered an internal audit of his campaign.
• The DNC is getting ready to take action on Florida and possibly Michigan.
• Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Edwards, Obama, and Clinton will all be at the Harkin Steak Fry after Obama visited last year and Bill Clinton two years ago.
• John McCain’s new bus is a ‘piece of shit.’

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (07/29/07)

This week’s podcast covers:

• CNN/YouTube Democratic Debate (July 23, 2007)
• Clinton-Obama Fracas
• Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney back out of proposed CNN/YouTube Republican Debate
• Republican candidates in a political spitball fight (Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Newt Gingrich)
• Spotlight on John Edwards’ tax plan

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Press Released: Week of June 24 - July 1

Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics. Calendar press releases will not be covered.

Barack Obama

Obama and Sen. Lugar are co-sponsoring an initiative on non-proliferation.

Obama issued a statement on the failed immigration legislation.

Obama issued a statement on the Senate resolution regarding Zimbabwe.

The veterans affairs apprpriations legislation contains elements Obama proposed.

Obama issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

Obama commented on the Middle Eastern summit earlier this week.

Obama issued a statement on stalled ethics reform.

Obama issued a statement on VP Cheney.

Bill Richardson

Richardson issued a statement regarding his support in the Latino community.

Richardson issued a statement regarding theunrest in Iran and how it ought affect American policy.

Richardson issued a statement by Refugees International on Darfur.

Richardson added staff in New Hampshire.

Richardson issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Richardson gave a speech to the Center for National Policy on his vision for foreign policy.

Richardson issued a press release touting that he had broken into the top tier.

Richardson issued a release regarding the veto threat by Pres. Bush regarding the registry in the DC apprpriations bill that would include same-sex couples.

Richardson touted his A grade from New Mexico conservation voters.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd defended the Family and Medical Leave Act he wrote in a letter to Sec. Chao.

Dodd commended the 2007 Presidential scholars for taking a stand against torture.

Dodd issued a statement on the veto threat of Pres. Bush over a registry in DC that would include same-sex couples.

Dodd issued a statement on the SCOTUS diversity ruling.

Dodd’s Youtube spotlight generated significant attention.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich appeared on the Late Show, and posted video on his website.

Michael Moore endorsed Kucinich’s health care plan.

Kucinich touted his record of voting in the House.

Kucinich told the US Conference of Mayors that cities have been pushed aside and it is time to make them the ‘heart of America.’

Hillary Clinton

Clinton received endorsements from a Hispanic group; also she received endorsements in Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, California (1, 2), Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Florida.

Clinton is focusing on fixing student loans.

Clinton announced a group of LGBT supporters.

Clinton’s statement on the SCOTUS desegregation case.

Text of the keynote address Clinton gave this week at the Center for a New American Security. Worth a read for her view on foreign policy.

Clinton issued a comment regarding the hearing on air quality on 9/11.

Clinton is co-sponsoring a bill aimed at saving the bee population in America.

Clinton issued a statement on the detention of Iranian-Americans in Iran.

Clinton met with leaders from the Northern Ireland government.

A health IT bill received committee approval in the Senate; a patent bill Clinton is co-sponsoring did the same.

Clinton issued a statement about a Senate bill to support democracy and human rights in Zimbabwe.

Clinton issued a statement regarding the immigration bill.

Joe Biden

Biden issued a statement regarding the SCOTUS school diversity ruling.

Resolution sponsored by Biden that would pay for US dues to UN peacekeeping operations passed committee.

Biden introduced legislation that would create a legal distinction between crack and powder cocaine. He said the Hatch proposal would not go far enough.

Biden issued a statement regarding the Employee Free Choice Act.

Biden introduced legislation to preserve the Underground Railroad.

Biden’s proposal for Iraq continues to gain support.

John Edwards

Edwards launched his first ad in New Hampshire.

Edwards commented on the failure of the Employee Free Choice Act in the Senate.

Edwards held house parties across the country this week.

Edwards received endorsements from African-American and Latino leaders.

Edwards is expanding his operations in New Hampshire.

Edwards issued statements on the direction of the Supreme Court in general, and one specifically about the school diversity decision.

Duncan Hunter

Hunter issued a statement on the immigration bill, after earlier in the week saying that a vote for it would be a vote for amnesty.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Gilmore issued a statement regarding Sen. Lugar saying it was time to withdraw from Iraq.

John McCain

McCain issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

McCain issued a statement on the failed immigration bill.

McCain issued a press release about a bill he is sponsoring which would solidify the repeal of the fairness doctrine.

McCain announced endorsements and campaign additions in New Hampshire (1, 2, and 3), Iowa, and South Carolina.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee is putting the audio of his blogger conference call on his website.

Mitt Romney

Romney issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Romney announced endorsements in Michigan and Washington.

Romney’s campaign called to solicit support this week.

Ron Paul

Paul wrote an article about the stem cell debate missing the point, it should be about the rights of taxpayers, and nothing else.

Paul held a big event in Iowa opposite the presidential forum, and drew more people than the entire forum.

Paul wrote that he was happy the immigration bill failed in the Senate.

Paul’s website is the most popular among all Repulican websites.

The Paul campaign is raising money to pay for their new national headquarters in Arlington.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani announced endorsements and campaign additions in California, South Carolina, Florida, and Iowa.

Giuliani issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Giuliani issued a statement regarding the ending term of PM Tony Blair.

Sam Brownback

Brownback criticized Romney’s change in stances on agriculture; with Brownback voting multiple ways on the immigration bill, as I have noted, it seems this might backfire if Brownback is not careful.

Brownback issued a release touting his book, which will be released this week.

Brownback wrote a letter to the White House calling on Pres. Bush to intensify the fight against Islamic extremism.

Brownback commented on his votes on appropriations bills, including some earmarks he proposed for Kansas, and his vote against the foreign aid bill “due to its funding of programs which weaken pro-life policy.”

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo issued a press release celebrating the failure of the immigration bill; he had issued a press release earlier in the week that criticized the Senate for bringing the bill up for debate. Additionally, Tancredo is going to send produce to Sec. Chertoff for suggesting that the failure of the bill is causing food shortages.

Tancredo later in the week called for Ron Paul to be included in the Iowa presidential forum.

Tommy Thompson

Thompson won the Linn County straw poll. I am having difficulty finding details on how many participated in the poll. Here are the percentage results.

Mike Bloomberg

Bloomberg issued a press release about the bond rating for the city and how it is ‘highest rating the City has ever achieved’ and also touts his fiscal management. Possibly innocuous, but with rumors of him running and with his predecessor running, it reads like it might mean something more.

Bloomberg gave a speech about the improving NYC schools.

Mayors against Illegal Guns, the group led by Bloomberg, hailed the removal of the Tiar amendment in the Appropriations bill, saying:

The Tiahrt Amendment, a version of which has been inserted into the Department of Justice appropriations bill each year since Fiscal Year 2003, places broad restrictions on the use of information the ATF collects on guns used in crimes, called trace data. The Tiahrt Amendment also prevents local governments and police from accessing federal crime gun trace data from areas outside their immediate geographic jurisdiction; prevents cities from use of trace data in state and local civil enforcement actions, including gun license revocations; and prevents the ATF from publishing reports that use crime gun trace data to analyze nationwide gun trafficking patterns.

Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; e.g., if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.

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