VIDEO: McCain-Palin Interview on NBC

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (10/07/08)

This podcast provides analysis of the second presidential debate between Obama and McCain, which was held at Belmont University in Tennessee.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (10/02/08)

This podcast offers post vice presidential debate commentary and analysis of the debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (09/26/08)

This podcast offers commentary and analysis about the first presidential debate about the economy and foreign policy between Barack Obama and John McCain at the University of Mississippi.

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First Presidential Election Debate Liveblog: From The University of Mississippi in Oxford

5:15: All times are Central. Deal with it, you coastal elites!

More on the University of Mississippi here. Fun fact: It was used as a hospital during the Civil War for both Union and Confederate soldiers. So there’s some bipartisanship. There’s no truth to the rumor that John McCain was there at that time, however. A must read about the civil rights history of the college is here. There’s no truth to the rumor that Barack Obama was the … uhm, named person in the headline there. Seriously, John McCain’s grandfather is one of the famous alumni of the college.

The moderator tonight is PBS’ Jim Lehrer. This is Lehrer’s record 11th time moderating a presidential debate, and his wiki page describes him as a bus enthusiast. So he’s got that going for him.

The format: two podiums. Sections of the debate will include introductory statements of two minutes, followed by five minutes of debate between the candidates. It’s a really nice format.

5:36: Mississippi is the state where Teddy Roosevelt refused to shoot a captured bear, enraging Stephen Colbert but capturing the heart of a nation. Nowadays, killing a moose is a qualification for national office. How times change!

5:53: Mississippi soda/pop fact: Mississippi is the birthplace of the Barq’s Root Beer. And also apparently the home of some very, very crazy ad wizards.

6:04: Ole Miss is in Oxford, in Lafayette County. In the county, Obama beat Clinton 2,849 to 2,171. John McCain won a virtually uncontested primary in the county with 1,953 votes (Huckabee received about 300 votes and Ron Paul less than 100 votes).

6:48: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is so concerned about the financial crisis that she’s talking on the House floor about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his denunciations of Israel. I understand that Presidents have to have multiple things in their crossfire, but you would think that wouldn’t apply to the House. Especially in the middle of a crisis.

7:04: In the audience: a lot of students and the Washington elite.

7:11: Nate Silver has a good debate preview up.

7:14: Matt Yglesias asks if the debate itself will be in HD. It’s a good question. Angelo believes it will be. Confirmation: here.

7:17: A C-Span history of debates.

7:18: C-Span’s debate hub is awesome.

7:19: The largest airport in Mississippi, in Jackson, was renamed the Jackson-Evers International Airport to honor assassinated NAACP leader Medgar Evers.

7:23: Marc Ambinder’s preview is also worth reading.

7:27:This week in 1963: JFK becomes the first president to sleep overnight in Duluth. Thanks, PBS.

7:29: Listening to C-Span calls before a debate is excruciating. Supporters of either side are just grating.

7:31: Janet Brown, Executive Director of the Commission on Presidential Debates, starts off the speeches that are very unimportant, and meant only to stoke the egos of those who give them.

7:37: Frank Fahrenkopf chastises the crowd to not applaud or make any noise.

7:42: Should I be concerned that there’s been multiple listings of corporate sponsors? Or is that too 3rd party-sh of me?

7:43: THe University lost power because of an accident with an immigration line earlier today.

7:50: Michelle Obama is in the house.

7:51: Jim Lehrer is on the stage. He talks down to people who “volunteered or participated” in the primary debates. Let’s hope Hillary isn’t watching. He talks about needing “absolute concentration” and asks Cindy McCain and Michelle Obama to take names of whoever makes sound.

8:00: And away we go! Tom Brokaw says the “Reagan Democrat” is the voter both are courting. Jim Lehrer says he has not cleared his questions with anyone. Both candidates arive to the only applause of the night.

8:03: First question: Eisenhower talks about economic strength being the basis for military strength. Where do you stand on the economic recovery plan? Obama goes first. Talks about Main Street, and how his proposals protect the taxpayer. His four point plan: oversight, the possibility of getting the money back (equity), executive pay, and help to homeowners. Segues into a criticism of Republican financial policy, including deregulation, and including the phrase “trickle down.” McCain references Kennedy (who has since been released from the hospital, per Politico). McCain is talking to Lehrer, while Obama was addressing the American people. Odd distinction. He talks at length about the bipartisanship in Congress, and mentions accountability, options for loans, and “a number of other essential elements.” He then seems to try to side with House Republicans, who want something wholly different. He ends up with a reference to foreign oil. Obama mentions that “we haven’t seen the language yet” which is head scratching. Of course, Lehrer is referring to a plan that is being negotiated as we speak. I think he’s pressing a bit in the wrong direction. The key is what they think should be done, not really what they think about some abstract plan that no longer exists. Obama addressed that answer to Lehrer. McCain tells a story about Eisenhower and Normandy, and his willingness to resign if D-Day failed. He implies that Chris Cox should resign because he failed - but doesn’t say why. Obama says there must responsibility not just when there is a crisis, and talks about the problems before the crisis erupted last week. Funny moment: Obama refers to McCain saying the fundamentals of the economy are strong, and Lehrer makes him say it directly to McCain, who jokes that he could hear Obama the first time. McCain’s response: “We have fundamental problems in the system.” It’s pretty ridiculous, given his comments about the fundamentals of the economy. He finishes with an ode to the American worker that Lenin could have written. Time spent talking on this: directly even. To the second.

8:14: Second question: what differences to you have on the economy: McCain wants spending under control. Talks about earmarking as a gateway drug. The joke about bear DNA doesn’t get any laugh. He holds up a pen to veto and says “this one is kinda old.” He’s making the old person jokes himself. Yeesh. McCain criticizes Obama for making earmarks. Obama agrees that earmarks are abused, and often by lobbyists. Obama says earmarks cost 18 billion, but McCain is proposing 300 billion dollars worth of tax cuts to the rich. Obama is working overload to relate to the common man. McCain goes on again about the earmarks and the 18 billion dollars, and criticizes them for corrupting people. He mentions Obama’s 800 billion of new spending. Obama talks about his plans: closing corporate “loopholes,” health care spending, etc. Obama again says earmarks alone will not get the middle class “back on track.” McCain talks about the business tax being the second highest in the world, to get more businesses in America. He goes back to earmarks AGAIN, and he’s getting a little silly on the point. He talks about the tax cuts he wants to give everyone. Fact check: earmarks are only 0.63% of the federal budget. Obama talks about his tax cuts, and criticizes McCain for making health care benefits taxable. McCain jumps in, and criticizes Obama for … his vote on the Energy Bill. McCain only wants to talk about earmarks. I’m at a bit of a loss. Obama mentions the tax breaks, and criticizes mcCain for opposing the Energy Bill right now for the position on eliminating tax breaks for oil company.

8:26: Third question: what would you give up to pay for this recovery plan: Obama says it’s hard to say, but some things will have to be delayed. Talks about needing to get energy indepdence in ten years. That’s very, very optimistic. Also mentions health care, and deductibles going up 30%. Also mentions competing globally, specifically in education. Also mentions infrastructure, including roads and the energy grid. A certain viewer near Albany, NY likes the road shout out. McCain talks about needing to cut spending, criticizing Obama for having the most liberal record. McCain wants to end ethanol spending, and better bids for contracts for the military. McCain talks about knowing how to get defense spending under control. Lehrer wants to know what will delayed specifically. Obama talks about postponing parts of his energy plan, and 15 billion lost through Medicare. Mentions working with Tom Coburn setting up “Google for Government.” McCain wants a spending freeze on everything but Defense, Veterans, and “other important” areas. Obama says you need a scalpel, not a hatchet, mentioning the 79 billion dollar surplus of the Iraqi government. McCain wants 45 nuclear power plants, and gives an awkward climate change shout out to Sen. Clinton. Lehrer doesn’t like these answers, and tries again. Obama segues into a discussion about values, and talks about corporate tax cuts versus health care. McCain does not want health care handed to the federal government, and gives a variation on the Harry and Louise schtick. McCain goes back to spending, and talks about owing China $500 billion. That’s true, but not really the root of the problem as he implies. Obama refers to the “orgy of spending” under Bush and criticizes McCain for voting for Bush’s budgets.

8:38: What are the lessons of Iraq? McCain: You caannot have a failed strategy that causes you to lose. A little broad to me. Bad strategy is as old as warfare itself. McCain hugs the surge as much as he possibly could. Talks about “winning” in Iraq and “coming home with victory and honor.” This is about 100 degrees difference away from what Petraeus describes. HD update: Apparently they both look weird in HD. Obama talks about opposing the war from the start, and tells the same story about taking an unpopular position as McCain. Obama talks about being distracted from Afghanistan and Al Qaeda being resurgent. McCain talks about Obama saying that the surge failed, not going to Iraq, and not holding hearings on his subcommittee. Obama looks amused, and restates Biden saying that those things are held at full committee. Obama gives his own McCain quotes, including greeted as liberators and history between Shia and Sunni, leading it into a question of judgment. McCain says Obama does not understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. McCain says Obama refuses to believe we are winning. He describes a strategy that sounds a whole lot like a tactic. It’s a strange distinction. McCain talks about Obama not funding the troops. Obama knocks it down quite easily, actually, saying that McCain and him both voted against bills for other reasons, and talks about at length about Afghanistan. McCain talks more about the surge and Petraeus, and says he knew the surge would succeed this much.

8:50: Should more troops be sent to Afghanistan? Obama: Send more troops ASAP, as per the commanders in the ground. Obama goes back to Afghanistan and says it cannot be separated. No mention of Pakistan thus far, except implicitly mentioning Al Qaeda “crossing the border.” Finally mentions Pakistan. Three points: More troops, deal with the poppy trade, and dealing with Pakistan. McCain talks about the Russians leaving and the rise of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. McCain says he is not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan, and criticizes Obama for launching strikes, or rather, for saying it out loud - effectively admitting he would do the same thing but not say it out loud. He talks about Waziristan. McCain wants the Iraq strategy. But Iraq is urban warfare; Waziristan is remotte tribes. Building walls is pointless when there’s already mountains in between people. a WSJ article a long while ago made this point. (A GOP one I linked to before). Obama says it’s about having intelligence regarding Al Qaeda, and taking them out, and that McCain has made comments regarding extinghuishing AL Qaeda and singing songs about bombing Iran. Obama says that Musharraf was coddled and the policy was anti-democratic. McCain says there was a failed state when Musharraf came to power. McCain tries to defend his temperament, and defends himself by voting against troops going to Lebanon; supporting the Gulf War and going into Bosnia and Kosovo; he wanted the troops in Somalia to apparently do more “peace making force.” But the criticism was regarding his words, both originally from McCain and rebuttal from Obama. This is just a tangent regarding his record. He says if Iraq does not succeed, then lives are wasted; the logical implication is that the deaths in Vietnam and Somalia were in vain. Obama says no soldiers die in vain, and all service should be honored, but the question is regarding how to keep America safe. He criticizes McCain for saying America could “muddle through” Afghanistan. McCain criticizes Obama for not going to Afghanistan and not holding hearings again.

Discipline: McCain has oddly times smiles, as usual, but is otherwise OK. Obama seems pretty OK. No sighs so far. Lehrer says time is even.

8:50: What is the threat from Iran? McCain says there they propose an existential threat to Israel, and that there can never again be a Holocaust. McCain says a League of Democracies could take effective sanctions, mentioning the Germans, French, and British. He also mentions Iran infiltrating Iraq. Obama says the Republican Guard is a terrorist organization (and says he always said that) and said that the war in Iraq has strengthened Iran’s hand. Agrees that a nuclear Iran cannot be tolerated, both for Israel and to prevent an arms race in the Middle East. Obama says cooperation from states like Russia and China will be needed for sanctions to be effective. He talks about diplomacy. He says that efforts at isolation only accelerate efforts to get nuclear weapons. McCain talks about Ahmadinejad wanting to wipe Israel out, and not wanting to give him a propaganda platform. McCain talks about needing preconditions being necessary, citing Reagan and Nixon. Obama says even Kissinger wants America to meet with Iran. He cites Bush sending Bill Burns to talks with Iran, and admitting it may not work. Obama says that after cutting off talks with North Korea, nuclear work was quadrupled, and nuclear secrets were sent to Syria, and through talks progress was made, even if it is on shaky ground. He even mentions McCain not wanting to meet with the President of Spain. McCain says he will not set a visitor’s schedule. McCain says that without precondition, meeting with Ahmadinejad legitimizes comments about Israel. Obama pushes back on Israel, but McCain interrupts, and makes a joke about Obama not denying the words of Ahmadinejad.

9:16: Russia! What do you do, what -DO- you do? Obama says the relationship needs to be reevaluated, but that the actions in Georgia were unwarrented, and that the six point peace plan needs to be implemented. Talks abot needing to be supportive of fledging democracies, and expanding NATO to countries like Georgia. Also talks about expanding cooperation, specifically with loose nukes. McCain tries to hammer home that Obama doesn’t understand foreign relations, saying Obama’s first statement only called for restraint on both sides. McCain says he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw KGB. Not sure about that one. Talks about concern over resurgence of the Russian Empire. Says that Russia is in violation of the cease fire agreement. Obama tries to give a better framing of his position on Georgia, but widely agrees with McCain. Mentions the Georgian economy. He talks about how he warned about Russian peacekeepers in Georgia in April, but nothing was done. Obama says that an energy strategy is necessary to deal with not only Russia but also Venezuela and Iran. Mentions energy, including nuclear, wind, and clean coal. Talks about McCain voting against renewable energy. McCain also talks about Nunn-Lugar. Obama says that he’s just for storing nuclear waste carefully. He wants to make another point, but McCain talks over him and I can’t tell what either said.

9:25: What is the likelihood of another 9/11? McCain says it is much less than it was on 9/12. He mentions that he and Lieberman wanted to start the 9/11 Commission. He seems to be making the Richardson approach: that he personally knows a lot of things and can get things done because he knows how to do it. It’s not what he did in the primary. Obama says America is safer in some ways. He talks about chemical sites, ports, and transit. He circle back to nuclear proliferation and says it is the biggest threat to the United States. Says missile defense is necessary, but it is not more important than nuclear waste. Says Al Qaeda is operating in 60 countries, and the root cause is in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Says America’s standing in the world has been damaged, and work is needed to restore the standing as a city on a hill. McCain cites Reagan and missile defense, for some reason. He goes back to Obama “not understanding” and says if there is failure in Iraq, Al Qaeda will have a base there. Obama goes back to McCain and Bush focusing on Iraq, while Bin Laden is still out there, while seguing to Chin being involved around the world everywhere where America is not, and the ability to project power of America is hurt. Segues into a discussion of veterans, and that a broader strategic vision is necessary. McCain says that Obama does not have the experience of knowledge necessary to be president. He compares Obama’s stubbornness to that of Bush, and says Obama not admitting the surge succeeded is really bad. Obama mentions his father coming from Kenya, and wanting to come to America because of the standing of America in the world, and that this idea is important, and investing ni how ordinary people live out their dreams is important. McCain one ups that by talking about coming home from prison and normalizing relations with Vietnam.

That ends the debate. I’m going to ponder grades, but Lehrer gets an easy A. Well done.

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VIDEO: Presidential Debate Between Barack Obama and John McCain at the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss)

Tonight’s debate between John McCain and Barack Obama will begin at 9pm ET. The moderator will be PBS’ Jim Leher. The topic will be foreign policy (although, they will likely spend some time discussing the economy as well). Be sure to check out our blog on the debate or listen to our podcast as well…

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (09/24/08)

This podcast discusses the proposed legislation to bailout Wall Street, McCain suspending his campaign to return to Washington and his call to postpone this Friday’s debate, a debate preview and a discussion of foreign policy issues (both obvious and not so obvious), and more…

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (07/17/08)

In this podcast, we discuss the New Yorker cover cartoon about Barck Obama, June fundraising figures, Obama’s trip to the Europe and the Middle East, the 08 Bloggers Network and more…

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Today’s Must Read: Hersh Article On Iran

At the moment, the economy may be the number one issue, however, it won’t be the only thing that gets attention for the rest of the summer.  At some point, the subject of Iran will take center stage for a while.  That said, Seymour Hersh has an excellent article in the New Yorker on the subject that is definitely worth a read.

I’ve excerpted some of the more interesting bits of information especially those that have a relation to election politics…

On the Democratic congress supporting the Bush administration’s decision to increase clandestine military operations against Iran:

In other words, some members of the Democratic leadership—Congress has been under Democratic control since the 2006 elections—were willing, in secret, to go along with the Administration in expanding covert activities directed at Iran, while the Party’s presumptive candidate for President, Barack Obama, has said that he favors direct talks and diplomacy.

Secretary gates discussing the consequences of a preemptive strike:

A Democratic senator told me that, late last year, in an off-the-record lunch meeting, Secretary of Defense Gates met with the Democratic caucus in the Senate. (Such meetings are held regularly.) Gates warned of the consequences if the Bush Administration staged a preëmptive strike on Iran, saying, as the senator recalled, “We’ll create generations of jihadists, and our grandchildren will be battling our enemies here in America.”

A commentary on how the Democrats in Congress are doing:

The Democratic leadership’s agreement to commit hundreds of millions of dollars for more secret operations in Iran was remarkable, given the general concerns of officials like Gates, Fallon, and many others. “The oversight process has not kept pace—it’s been coöpted” by the Administration, the person familiar with the contents of the Finding said. “The process is broken, and this is dangerous stuff we’re authorizing.”

And some closing thoughts on the subject:

There is another complication: American Presidential politics. Barack Obama has said that, if elected, he would begin talks with Iran with no “self-defeating” preconditions (although only after diplomatic groundwork had been laid). That position has been vigorously criticized by John McCain. The Washington Post recently quoted Randy Scheunemann, the McCain campaign’s national-security director, as stating that McCain supports the White House’s position, and that the program be suspended before talks begin. What Obama is proposing, Scheunemann said, “is unilateral cowboy summitry.”

Scheunemann, who is known as a neoconservative, is also the McCain campaign’s most important channel of communication with the White House. He is a friend of David Addington, Dick Cheney’s chief of staff. I have heard differing accounts of Scheunemann’s influence with McCain; though some close to the McCain campaign talk about him as a possible national-security adviser, others say he is someone who isn’t taken seriously while “telling Cheney and others what they want to hear,” as a senior McCain adviser put it.

Between McCain singing bomb Iran earlier in 2007 and Obama getting some criticism for his statements on negotiations, the topics discussed in Hersh’s article will become a factor at some point later in the election, one way or another.

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Morning Briefing (April 9, 2008)

What’s news today…

• Mark Penn’s new role is clarified.  Despite all the hullabaloo, it’s clear that Penn will not play as influential a role as he was or what many still think he will.
• Sizzle: TNR scolds Obama for dismissing Clinton and McCain’s foreign policy experience as well as for  using his personal experience living abroad as a child to buttress his foreign policy credentials.
• An excellent look inside McCain’s campaign.  Is this what a McCain administration will look like?
• In our last podcast, we discussed Obama’s reversal on public financing and its political implications.  Coincidentally, it seems that Obama is preparing his justification for not opting into the public finance system should he become the nominee by contending, “We have created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it, and they will have as much access and influence over the course and direction of our campaign that has traditionally been reserved for the wealthy and the powerful.”
• Why?  Howard Dean criticizes McCain and calls him “not a strong candidate.”  Somewhat ironically, one of the reasons he suggested McCain is a weak candidate is because “he is out of touch with the American people.”  To me, it certainly seems out of touch to suggest that McCain is a weak candidate.  I recognize that as Chairman, Dean has to support his party, but it seems that recognizing reality is often the fastest way to earn credibility.  Recognizing McCain’s strength is not mutually exclusive with opposing him.
• Bill Clinton’s recent trip to Puerto Rico could have gone better.  A report: While Clinton was giving a speech, in English:Nobody interpreted, and only a handful of audience members seemed to understand him. The crowd — raucous and dancing a few minutes earlier — remained mostly silent during the 10-minute speech. Some people left. Others chatted on their cellphones. ‘What is he saying? Do we clap now?’ asked Jerry Nieves Rosario, a college student who speaks only Spanish.
• Inform yourself: This roundup of Iran nuclear related news is useful.
• Can we just stop with the ‘calls to Al Gore‘ for the time being?  Honestly, who throws a shoe?
• A Democratic debate on Science?  Maybe, it’s still very early in the planning stage.  I like the idea, that’s for sure.

 

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Live Blog Of CNN Democratic Debate In Austin, Texas (February 21, 2008)

7:00 PM: Greetings! The debate kicks off an hour from now, live on CNN and CNN.com. It’s being broadcast from the LBJ Presidential Library at the University of Texas. Clinton will continue her assault on Obama being all speeches and no solutions. Obama will probably respond not with attacks but by continuing to play calm and emphasize his own plans.

Campbell Brown is the moderator; somewhere, Katie Couric is sad. She couldn’t get to moderate a debate but her stand in when she was at the Today Show does.

7:06: CNN photos from the debate. The Texas marching band is going to be in the room? Great, that’s exactly what’s needed to finally get the CNN debate over that pesky shark they’ve been trying to jump.

7:20: I’m choosing the pre-debate feed with no audio over the CNN coverage of John McCain having a friend. The band is playing, and people sitting directly in front of it have a look on their face that ranks a solid 9.8 on the ironic scale.

7:27: A very old man with a long beard and a top hat just walked by me. I’m assuming that’s an omen for what is going to happen tonight. Either that, or it’s an omen that the school forgot to lock the doors at 6 pm.

7:30: A reminder of what is on the line: Someone might have their head added to this.

7:35: Johnson would be 100 years old this year. I’m not sure what to make out of that. He did teach high school debate at one point though. I hope is was not policy, because he talks way too slowly for that. (kidding!)

7:40: Texas Democrats are parading after each other on stage. I fear they’re going to run out of them before the debate begins.

7:54: Goodness, the set is awkward. It’s sort of a half S. Apparently Wolf roaming free last time was unacceptable; Brown will be seated.

7:58: Here’s pollster.com chart of polls.

8:00: And away we go. Campbell Brown looks happy to be there. Jorge Ramos from Univision and John King from CNN emerge to no applause … until they are forced to applaud.

8:02: Clinton is introduced first, and then Obama. No noticeable difference in applause levels. The pack of photographers does their job while a handler demand they back up. Meanwhile, 5 feet away they discuss what candidates need to do. That just sounds awkward. Meanwhile, Ramos talks about how no one can win without the Hispanic community. Brown points out that Clinton wants more debates.

8:05: Brown announces the candidates have sat down. Gee, thanks.

8:06: NO RULES!

8:07: Clinton gives an opening statement about working in Texas 36 years ago. She name drops Barbara Jordan and Ann Richards. Talks up starting S-CHIP, and what she did to give health care to reservists. Says that discrimination against sick people ought be unconstitutional, and that veteran care needs to be improved. Finishes by talking about her “lifetime of experience.” And apparently her campaign is now “your campaign.”

8:09: Obama again references being friends with Clinton. Talks about the economy, using a personal example. Make that multiple personal examples - this is a new wrinkle. Segues into a discussion of Iraq. Talks about how they both have offered proposals to deal with the issues, but good ideas are not the problem. Says good ideas go to Washington to die. That’s a pretty good tag line. He blames lobbyists. Obama co-ops Barbara Jordan, but quotes her to one up Clinton.

8:12: This audience is going to kill me with applause. There’s lengthy applause after every answer.
8:13: Tancredo turns off the debate when Ramos starts the debate in Spanish. Will Clinton sit with Raul Castro to get a measure of him? She “hopes so”. What does that mean? She says she is going to look for signs of openness, and will reach out once she sees progress, citing democracy and progress. When pressed, she clarifies no, until change happens. Apparently, she’s looking for change she can believe in.

8:16: Obama says that he’s willing to meet with Raul Castro, and sees an opportunity to change. Distinguishes preparation from precondition, but it sounds really, really similar. Like, really similar. He cites freeing political prisoners. Talks about opening change here with remittances and visiting.

8:18: Obama is asked about a statement about policy being a failure. He says it has been a failure, with no progress over his lifetime, and that changes should happen in steps.

8:19: Clinton says she agrees that willing to negotiate is good, but distinguishes presidential negotiations from low level negotiations.Says that the Bush standard for negotiation is too narrow, and bipartisan negotiation is better.

This applause is still killing me. It ads nothing.

8:21: Obama says that both of them are different from Bush, but that the President has to take an active role because of what Bush has done, because the air of arrogance has to be eliminated.

8:22: On to the economy. What differences are there on the economy?

8:23: Obama starts by again recalling economic problems. Talks about fairness and balance and tax breaks for companies here, and ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy while cutting more taxes for people making $75k or less. Talks about labor and environmental standards in trade. Segues into a green economy. Says they agree on many of these issues, as did other candidates. Says what is needed is a working majority to make these changes happen to overcome the special interests.

8:26: Clinton is asked about being ready on Day 1, and implying that Obama is not. Clinton starts by saying that she agrees with a lot of what he said, and gives a lot of the same stuff. Talks about her trade timeout and getting a trade prosecutor, and getting new safety standards in place. Talks about the foreclosure crisis, and instituting a moratorium on them. Apparently, millions will be homeless because they were “hoodwinked.” Talks green jobs. Talks about ending “Bush’s war on science” … Brown cuts her off … and Clinton continues about “innovation nation” … and Brown cuts her off again. Pausing to feel the applause was a bad idea.

ASC’s comment: “Does the path to the innovation nation require use to cut through consumption junction by any chance?”

8:30: Clinton talks about supporting comprehensive immigration, including “supporting the first one in 2004.” That was a Democrat only bill that had no chance of passing. But, it was before Obama got to the Senate. Gives the normal Dem schtick about immigration; it could have just as easily been said by Obama.

8:32: Obama generally agrees. Touts getting the bill out of the Senate but it was used as a “political football” in the House. Says that toning down the rhetoric is necessary, and hate crimes have “skyrocketed.” He then gives the same stuff as Clinton. Broad agreement here.

Since they agree, CNN naturally wants another question.

8:36: John King wants to know if you want a border fence, and want it built faster, or not at all. Clinton notes they both voted for it. Says that part of a college campus would be cut off by the border fence, and that you should not do it the dumb way. (Credit to a certain KR). Says that she would listen to people who live along the border. Brown tries to cut King off (uhm, why?), but King asks about people moving and crossing in Arizona instead of near San Diego. Clinton talks about using technology. More talk about not doing it the dumb way.

8:40: Obama says they agree. Says consulting with local communities is the key, and that listening is important. Moves on to saying justice is important, and deporting everyone is absurd, but order is important. Says everything is linked, and that is why comprehensive reform is important. Says passing the DREAM act is important for allowing children who have broken no laws on their own access to citizenship.

More immigration, and more Spanish.

8:43: By 2050, there’s going to be a lot of Spanish people here. Is there a downside for a bilingual country? (Good thing Tancredo already turned off). Clinton says that there are benefits to learning a second language, but English ties everyone together. Distinguished English not being the official language from English being the main language.

8:44: Obama gives an answer that’s mostly the same, and says every student should learn a second language. Talks about leadership in a smaller world and communicating. Talks about No Child Left Behind pushing out other learning, and foreign languages have been neglected.

Campbell Brown throws to a break, and so do I.

We’re back.

8:50: Why is the tone different in campaign appearances than it is in a debate? Clinton asked about her “speeches versus solutions” line. Starts by criticizing Bush. Says they both have a lot in common. Says they both try to let voters know how they see the world differently, and that she offers solutions. Says that there are differences between their records, citing directly the Watson interview. Says actions speak louder than words.

8:53: Obama says that actions do speak louder, and gives a records of his accomplishments. Clinton starts giving a wide smile at one point. Says Clinton has a fine record. Obama says that it’s a difference of opinion on how change comes about, citing “Let’s Get Real” and that it implies people and newspapers who support him are delusional. Says that these people understand that it’s about a problem in Washington and ending bickering and fighting special interests. Says that it’s more than policy positions, but inspiring people to get involved in government, and that without it, there will be gridlock in Washington. Lengthy applause.

8:57: Brown asks about the common elements to Deval Patrick’s speech and the Clinton argument that it is plagiarism. Obama mentions Patrick giving him the line and that the accusations are silly. Goes back to the “Silly Season” line that he last brought up in the kindergarten paper kerfuffle. Says some of his speeches are pretty good. Blatant egoism? Yeesh. That’s not going to play well everywhere. Talks about what he says in speeches, mentioning education and his position on Iraq.

9:00: Clinton is asked about it being “Silly Season.” Says that if your candidacy is going to be about speech, it should be your own words. Says it’s not change you can believe in, it’s change you can Xerox. Audience boos. Talks about watching the speeches on “the YouTube.” Says Obama “chose” not to include everyone on health care. Clinton says that even Bush agrees with her on a moratorium. Clinton says she took on universal health care against special interests in 1993 and 1994, and health insurance companies are deciding who should live and die is wrong.

9:03: Obama says he will debate the issues. Cites Clinton calling his plan universal health care earlier in the campaign. Says their plans are 95% the same, citing precisely how that is the case. Talks about the philosophical difference over mandates, and cites Robert Reich. Says that they agree on goals but differ on how to get there. He then moves into criticizing how Clinton tried to get health care passed behind closed doors instead of with people behind it.

Time for a second break.

Plants email CNN.com on why they agree with their candidate.

9:11: Clinton is asked about her statement that “one of us is ready to be commander in chief.” She says she is. She goes back to health care, and says mandates are necessary to prevent a “hidden tax” and quotes Edwards on Social Security and ads LBJ on Medicare.

9:13: Obama wants to respond briefly. Says it is a mandate on individuals to purchase, and talks about extensive problems in Massachusetts with mandates. Says that a stiff penalty is needed to incentivize everyone to buy health care.

9:14: Clinton now jumps in, and talks about mandates for children. She again talks about Medicare and Social Security.

9:15: Obama says that mothers can get health care for children, and it is available and affordable right now. Says that penalties for gaming the system are appropriate, but that he does not want to leave anyone out.

9:16: What about being ready as commander in chief? She talks about what she did as first lady, and serving on the Armed Service Community, and leading on Homeland Security. Mentions Kosovo, Serbia, Pakistan, and Cuba testing Presidential Leadership.

9:18: Obama says he would not be running if he did not think he was ready, and that his first job is to keep America safe. Says that families are burdened by tours, and using correct judgment. Cites Clinton’s judgments on Iraq. Cites Pakistan and other decisions.

9:21: John King asks about supporting the surge, and Clinton’s comments about a willing suspension of disbelief. Clinton says the rationale of the surge was to give the Iraqi government space to make key decisions, and that no one doubts sending more troops would be a better idea. Says the purpose of the surge has not been fulfilled. Says that withdrawing slowly would force the Iraqi government to stand up.

9:25: Obama says that it is indisputable that violence is down and cites a local brigade. Says a tactical victory is imposed upon a strategic blunder, and that having a debate on the wisdom of that decision is preferable to a debate about tactics of the decision. Says that America has been diverted from paying attention from Latin America because of Iraq, and talks about how Hugo Chavez and Iran have benefited. Talks about improving treatments for veterans, and that spending on the Iraq war prevents general improvements. Criticizes McCain on the economy.

Break time. CNN’s focus group gives Clinton’s Xerox remark low marks.

9:31: The debate goes on! Anderson Cooper is ready with the “Best Political Team on Television.” Obama is asked about not providing where his earmarks went. He points out he did. We linked to it. Obama talks about how he opened up the process, and that some earmarks are worthy projects.

9:34: Clinton is asked about pork barrel spending. Says McCain supported the Iraq war and Bush tax cuts (well, he does now, but don’t look for McCain to clarify that). Says that borrowing money from the Chinese is bad, and some of the Bush tax cuts need to be repealed. Criticizes Bush on spending. It seems that Clinton is criticizing Bush more, and Obama McCain, but that is just a random observation.

9:36: Superdelegates. Quoting Pelosi who said it would be a problem if the people are overruled. Clinton says she is not worried, and these are the rules. Obama says that the primaries and caucuses count and should determine the next nominee. Says that the people want government that listens to them. I’d like to know what he means exactly by politicians scoring points. For whom, exactly?

9:39: Last question, finally. What was a moment that tested each the most? Obama says he would not point to a single moment, but his entire life. Says learning to take responsibility for his own actions and how he could bring people together. Cites his cumulative experience as a reason he is qualified to provide a better government. Clinton says everyone knows she’s lived through crises. Says she does not know how she keeps going, but challenges of everyday Americans are far more difficult. Talks about speaking at the opening of a facility for injured troops in San Antonio, and how the problems they deal with are so serious, and she has vowed to improve people’s lives from a young age. Says she and Obama will be fine, and she hopes she can say the same thing about the American people.

And that’s about it.

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Live Blog Of ABC News/Fox News/WMUR Republican Debate In New Hampshire (01/05/07)

This evening, the Republican presidential candidates will participate in the the ABC News/Facebook/WMUR debate in New Hampshire. The participating candidates are Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

7:00: Charles Gibson is explaining the criteria for being in the debate, not mentioning who was excluded. Gibson says the first 45 minutes will be discussions on three topics (perhaps akin to the NPR debate). The second half will be a more traditional format.

7:03: Diane Sawyer’s disembodied voice takes over, as she discusses the situation with Stephanopoulos. They review poll information and what not of both sides, noting that Obama and McCain have momentum.

7:05: ABC has their political team lined up as if they’re about to film a glamor shot of them walking down the street.

7:06: Facebook is here! Diane Sawyer says Facebook does not decide the debate, as they segue into people on the streets.

7:07: The press room is in disarray as the internet suddenly goes out.

7:08: The Republicans are on stage, left to right: McCain, Thompson, Paul, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani, who is smiling as broadly as possible. They have desks.

7:09: Candidate George Bush is contrasted with Bush at war. Would the candidates run against Bush’s foreign policy or for it?

7:11: Huckabee says there are times of arrogance, and that strength has to be used with full understanding of strength, specifically referencing Rumsfeld. Says we should go to war with the army we need, and with irresistible force, and not letting politicians interrupt.

7:12: Thompson says Huckabee has changed, that the number of troops was not what Huckabee was referencing. Says we are not arrogant, and that a war with radical Islam has been declared against us. Says he agrees there was a flawed strategy, and that they are winning now.
7:14: Giuliani references Bush going on offense after 9/11 to prevent another attack, and positive changes have been instituted as well as mistakes having been made. Giuliani says a major problem is that the military is far too small.

7:15: Gibson wonders if they believe in the Bush doctrine of preemptive war if the country feels threatened. McCain says he agrees and gives Bush credit for not having another attack in America since 9/11, since Bush would have been blamed for any other attack. Says America is not safe, but America is safer. McCain says he was the only one who disagreed at the time with Rumsfeld, but there is success now in Iraq. References Petraeus. Also McCain thanks Giuliani for leadership on 9/11.

7:17: Paul says he agreed with the foreign policy that Bush ran on, and compares Bush’s foreign policy to Clinton’s. Says this is the first time a nation accepted as a policy that “we start the wars.” Talks of the nature of the threat of terrorism. Says America is not attacked because it is free and prosperous, but rather because we invade and occupy, and have done so long before 9/11.

7:19: Romney says Paul does not understand radical jihadism, as it is intent on bringing down western and free governments. Romney says strategy has to be moved from military threats to help move Islam towards rule of law in the Middle East to help them, and that the military is part of the solution.

7:21: Thompson says preemption did not suddenly appear as an option. Says America has many threats now, and that different weaponry is being faced, not Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Says we should go in where “we should and where we are able to.”

7:22: Giuliani says he gave back 10 million to Saudis, and has nothing to do with foreign policy, but about perverting religion into hating freedom of religion and freedom of women.

7:23: Paul wants everyone to imagine if someone did this to us. Romney interrupts and says that Paul is reading the propaganda not their writings. Cites Bhutto and Sadat as Paul tries to interrupt back in vain. Thompson asked who we invaded before 9/11, and Paul says there was bases.

7:25: Huckabee says that he supported the surge and the President when Romney did not and Romney criticized Bush on 60 Minutes, but he is not running for Bush’s third term. Everyone tries to interrupt, and Huckabee says the threat comes from the jihadists, not Islam.

7:26: Romney and Huckabee argue over whether he read Huckabee’s article. Romney said he supported the surge from the beginning and McCain deserves credit, and to not mischaracterize his position. Huckabee rebuts “Which one?” to a huge WHOA in the press room. He half-heartedly defends himself before Paul gets the nod.

7:29: Paul asks why people attack the US and not Switzerland. Giuliani gives a laundry list of non-American sites such as Bali and the Munich Olympics. This is escalating into a giant argument.

7:30: Giuliani says there is a need for more interaction and trade. Paul asks why we support their dictators. A little more yelling at him, and Gibson interacts.

7:31: Question from Bush! He asks what principles people believe in.

7:32: McCain talks about principles — focuses on his basic campaign theme of restoring trust in government. Chides his opponents for not backing the surge as strongly as he did, then attacks Democrats saying that if we had done what they wanted “Al Qaeda would be trumpeting around the world.”

7:34: Now, onto McCain’s principles…this should be brief. And as expected, he doesn’t really discuss principles other than family and the desire to strengthen family through better schools, healthcare, economy and security. *shock* Romney didn’t actually discuss his principles.

7:37: Gibson goes over the flip-flop record of each candidate. Giuliani says that there are some beliefs you change and some you never will. Says even Reagan could not accomplish every single thing he wanted, but the general philosophy stays the same. Huckabee says its about principles deep inside us. Huckabee cites the Declaration of Independence. This is getting a lot of eye rolls in this room but will go over great among actual people. (Reporters are not people, I have learned.)

7:39: Not a right to be happy, but to pursue happiness. Policies reflect challenges of the moment, and priorities certainly change.

7:40: Thompson says principles should be based on the Constitution and separation of powers and federalism, and that you can learn from looking at what the founders stated. Cites the 10th Amendment

7:42: Paul asks why there are deviations from the Constitution; cites the declaration of war, monetary system, welfare state. Asks why we treat others like a bully. He is starting to rant about all his beliefs at once. He’s losing his self control.

7:43: Moving on to health care. News clip say that forcing people to buy their own, and not employer based is a larger change. Gibson says we are the only country that does not insure everyone.

7:44: Giuliani says we have the best health care system in the world. He says that people come to the US for health care. Thompson and McCain agree. Giuliani says the problem is not enough people buying their own health care.

7:45: Gibson says the math of tax cuts does not add up.

7:46: McCain says the problem is not quality, but inflation that needs to be dealt with so that health care costs become reasonable. He does the preventative measures schtick, and concludes by insulting Canadian medicare.

7:48: Romney touts the Massachusetts health care plan, which required no new money. Romney says a connector between people and the companies helps and solves the problems the report mentioned. Romney should delve into details more often, he’s really at his best right here. Finishes by attacking Hillarycare.

7:49: Paul says the problem is the trillion dollar war, although inflation is a problem. Paul mentions people in America going to India for heart surgery. (Medical tourism is real). Talks about borrowing money from China to finance the war. Good, but he’s getting shrill again.

7:50: Thompson has to be woken up to answer the question. Seriously. He’s stunned by Ron Paul. Paul jokes about Thompson trying to understand, and that sacrificing care is not something people want to do. Says the markets work, but total coverage will probably never be achieved.

7:52: Romney says he has not backed off of mandates, as Thompson jokes about him. Says the principle of personal responsibility is key. Thompson asks what the penalty for not agreeing to the mandate. Says the question is personal responsibility for those who can buy insurance. Says he would not mandate his plan at the federal level, but he would recommend it for every state, but disagreements are acceptable, citing Schwarzenegger.

7:55: Huckabee attacks the health care system, and how it waits until catastrophic injury, and prevention is key. He’s said this before.

7:56: Romney and Giuliani both try to jump in and Giuliani wins, touting his health savings account, that incentivizes wellness. This is not really persuasive in the amounts Giuliani talks about.

7:57: Gibson challenges people to substantively address real problems with paying for health care and they all demur from him. Weak.

7:58: McCain says that payment should be on totality, not individually based. He says the pharmaceutical companies are a problem and should compete. Romney says htey are not the problem, McCain interrupts that they are. Romney cites certain problems in the details and again is really compelling compared to him addressing broad themes.

Commercial Break!

8:04: Gibson jokes that no one ran away. Question regarding illegal immigration on McCain. Does he have the same plan for a path to citizenship?

8:05: McCain says sure but that the American people lost faith in government and that the borders need to be secured. Also says those illegals who committed crimes ought be deported. Also that there should be temporary worker program. Says ultimately they are God’s children and the issue needs to be dealt with delicately.

8:07: Romney says that allowing people to stay here is a form of amnesty, and there should be no pathway to legalization for those who are here. Tancredo-ish for sure. Says it is unfair for those to stay. McCain tries to interrupt to point out the pragmatic problems.

8:09: Giuliani says there should be a system at the borders, and that the priority has to be illegal immigrants who are here who have committed crimes, citing Romney’s idea as unrealistic. Cites his plan for an ID card, and those who do not come forward should be deported.

8:10: McCain says Romney described his plan as not amnesty and was fair. Romney says it is a technicality, and Giuliani tries to interrupt. Romney says all plans were reasonable but did not endorse them. McCain says it was more than a fine, and says Romney “can spend all your fortune on attack ads but it still will not be true” to another WHOA in the press room. Romney is taking a beating. Romney rebuts saying allowing people to stay here is amnesty, and there should be no special right. They’re talking over each other and McCain says grandmothers should not be deported. Thompson says Romney had a quote about supporting the plan, Romney says he was misquoted, and McCain with another zing as he says if you keep changing your positions that you will be misquoted. Lots of cross talk and Romney agrees that deporting 12 million is unreasonable. Giuliani says Reagan did amnesty, and would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials. Wow. Giuliani says that what has to be done is stopping it at the border and imposing conditions is not amnesty. Differentiates the Giuliani/McCain plan from the Thompson/Romney plan on penalties. Thompson says rewarding people for behavior in any way is amnesty. Paul and Huckabee are completely staying out of this. Thompson says the problem is taking responsibility on the issue, and sanctuary cities are a problem, such as Giuliani’s NYC. Giuliani says that he only allowed children to go to school, and illegals to go to the hospital and report crimes. Thompson says that Giuliani tried to sue to overcome a bill outlawing amnesty.

8:19: Huckabee is brought in with a weird line that no one here understands. He says that a fence can be built in 18 months, and that he agrees with Thompson that it is about national security. Says people should then go back to get in the back of the line, because people in the US should not live in fear.

8:21: Paul says he gets worried about a tamper proof ID because everyone would logically have to have such an ID. Says that the excessive welfare state is the root of the problem, and are an incentive for people to come. Romney wants to understand that the discussion is about illegal immigration not legal immigration.

8:23: What if Obama is the nominee? Why not vote for Obama specifically? Silly sort of question. Says Obama’s health care plan would break the bank. Says Washington is the problem. Says that he would cite change he brought in the private sector and in the Olympics.

8:25: Thompson says Obama adopted the positions of every liberal interest group, and that he’s not been definitive on that so far. Talks about lowering taxes and avoiding the welfare state that would hurt America in terms of national security.

8:27: McCain says that he agrees Romney is the candidate of change. Says Obama has no security credentials. Romney says the personal barbs are not necessary. Romney says experience did not matter in Iowa and a record is not enough. Giuliani says Obama has no executive experience; says it could be change for bad. Says Obama voted on a timetable for retreat. Huckabee cites differences on 2nd Amendment and the role of government, and taxes and national defense and same sex marriage. He points to Huckabee for broadening the debate. Says that on the other hand that Obama excites people about leading across the spectrum.

8:31: Paul cites similarities to Obama, in that their campaigns both appeal to youth. He says personal liberty and economic arguments are the difference. He finishes by criticizing the welfare state.

8:32: Question about high gas prices.

8:33: Paul says gas prices are inflationary, as it has raised as gold stayed flat. Also says that oil has dramatically increased as a result of the war. Talks about the devaluing of the dollar causing the problem.

8:34: McCain says some of the oil money will go to terrorists and dictators, and greenhouse gases need to be addressed, and technology has to be reduced. He cites enough evidence that the planet could be in danger. No one jumps in to that.

8:35: Is Thompson worried about excess profits of oil companies? He takes note of it, but says nothing can be done. Says throwing rocks at each other will do nothing; cites Chinese demand for oil. He says diversification of oil suppliers is necessary, along with clean coal. Says there is no strong regulation in this country. (Chrysler? Airlines?) Giuliani says an Apollo program has to be done to diversify. Cites nuclear power specifically and a lack of progress in the last 30 years. Cites bipartisanship in getting a man on the moon. Huckabee says lower taxes on innovation would incentify things. Also dramatic incentives, such as a billion dollar reward on a 100mpg car. Thompson cracks that there will be no windfall profit tax on that. He says that McCain is right that we pay for both sides of the war on terror. Romney says we can get to where these people say but it will require a far bigger investment in innovation. Says that defense against tort lawsuits is a root of the problem.

And it is over!

Gibson introduces the Democratic candidates, and they all briefly share the stage. A whole bunch of really awkward handshakes and quite a few hugs! When Rudy and Hillary met each other, there’s some hoots and hollers in the press room.

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Friday Briefing (November 30, 2007)

Republicans

Fred Thompson: Thompson, realizing these debates show him not at his best, proposes an alternative that will never, ever happen … You want proof that these debates are not the best for Thompson? He had to clarify that he was against abortions in almost all cases. Yes, the candidate who less than a month ago was endorsed by the NLRC had to clarify that. The new language seems to be ‘prohibited,’ but he does not say by whom; I imagine it’s the states given his prior statements…

John McCain: Jim Geraghty at NRO thinks McCain won the debate. … McCain is not seeing progress in the polls, in large part still because of his immigration and campaign finance positions, even though he can tout Iraq now. … McCain did a MTV/Myspace forum, talking in part about the dangers of global warming.

Mike Huckabee: A review of Huckabee’s record on taxes finds mixed results. … David Yepsen says Huckabee should be considered a top tier candidate now. … Huckabee was on Hardball and talked extensively about religion, while also criticizing the questions asked in the debate. It’s worth a read, if only to see Matthews go on and on about no religious test for public office and then only ask Huckabee questions relating to his faith…

Mitt Romney: A new poll shows Romney down three points in Iowa to Huckabee, and you know what that means: new commercials and new mailings from Romney. … The WSJ looks at the campaign work of Romney’s sons. … Romney made a dumb mistake in regards to the Red Sox in the debate, saying they waited 87 years, not 86 for a title. …

Ron Paul: Paul is on track to raise the most money of any Republican candidate; I’m not sure that doesn’t say more about the rest of the candidates than it does Ron Paul and how alienated the civil libertarian wing of the Republican Party feels right now. I wonder if any of the other candidates can tap into that at all. I’m not terribly optimistic. … More on Paul and that superhighway, including government denials that will appease no one who believes in it. …

Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani calls the Politico story on funding a dirty trick; Jonathan Martin at Politico shrugs it off with some good comments. That’s not an especially convincing angle, especially since the Giuliani campaign was notified of the impending article earlier in the week. More facts are still emerging. … The Economist says Giuliani would be the candidate for those who think Bush has been timid in foreign policy. …  Giuliani has a new ad up in NH, trying to make a push with Romney slipping virtually everywhere. …  An extensive fact check of Giuliani’s boasts about NYC crime going down finds that he might be overstating what he did. … Giuliani’s business ties to Qatar are being looked into for terrorist links. …

Democrats

Barack Obama: Obama met with NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg this morning over breakfast in what was technically a private meeting, in as much as breakfast in front of a window before members of the NY media can be private. You can read more on this here or virtually anywhere, and see video clips (very pointless, imho) 105863">here. My take is that Bloomberg needed the meeting to be this public far more than Obama did. … Obama maintains his statistically insignificant lead in Iowa. … Obama rallied in Harlem last night with Cornel West and Chris Rock, and met with Al Sharpton prior to the event. …

Hillary Clinton: Reporters have struggled getting access to Clinton. Ipol commented on just that. … Hillary Clinton addressed Rick Warren’s AIDS conference and got rave reviews. … The Boston Globe says that New Hampshire is becoming Clinton’s firewall with Iowa so tight, but that race is tightening as well. …  Clinton’s campaign is calling for Obama’s health care ad in New Hampshire to be taken down; neither side is giving up over the mandates, but Clinton’s constantly on the offense and Obama constantly on defense on the subject. That has to favor Clinton if anyone. …

John Edwards: Edwards is also now too criticizing Obama’s health care plan. … The Des Moines Register takes a look at the vast differences in style and substance in John Edwards between now and four years ago, starting with the line: “John Edwards tells voters that there are still two Americas. What Iowa caucusgoers must decide is if there are two John Edwardses.” … Edwards outlined his trade policy in Iowa. …

The Rest: Joe Biden is at 8 percent and Bill Richardson at 4 in the newest ARG poll. Ipol’s take says everything I could possibly want to say on it. … Richardson is still trying in Iowa, even with prospects looking bleak. … Joe Biden threatened impeachment if Bush attacked Iran without the consent of Congress; somehow, I think that threat is more meaningful than Kucinich’s. Biden also attempted to flip the Secretary of State argument on its head. …

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Our CNN/YouTube Republican Debate Questions

2008Central.net’s Co-Managing Editors, John Whitehouse and Angelo Carusone submitted the following questions for the CNN/YouTube Republican Debate.  Take a look… Read more

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (11/26/07)

This podcast covers (1) problems with Bill Richardson’s campaign, (2) the reality of Mike Huckabee’s recent momentum, (3) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama argue over a Novak Column, (4) the significance of experience in the 2008 election, (5) Fred Thompson’s troubles and (6) more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Live Blog Of CNN Democratic Debate In Las Vegas, Nevada (November 15, 2007)

7:55: We’re here and ready to go. Campaign news of the day: John Edwards launches this site, aimed at taking down Hillary Clinton (at any cost?). General news of the day: Barry Bonds was indicted.

8:00: Mike Gravel is again not here. I have to think that hurts Clinton the most, as all the other attacks on Clinton sting less when Gravel is sitting on the sideline attacking everyone.

8:01: Candidates are being introduced one at a time, and CNN decided to “bring to you” the photo opp. What a shocker, CNN bringing something of little to no substance and touting it as some innovation. Clinton definitely got the loudest ovation when entering the stage. From left to right: Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Clinton, Obama, Dodd, and Edwards.

8:04: CNN tries to bring in its political team, and says Clinton has to engage. I disagree with them: Clinton has the audience on her side, so anyone who attacks too hard risks getting hard boos they probably do not want. This goes for Edwards more than Obama. The CNN political analysts keep talking about mixing it up. How about previewing particular issues? 7 minutes in, not a single mention of anything beyond the horserace.

8:08: Campbell Brown and John Roberts are asking the introductory question, and Blitzer will ask follow ups at his discretion.

8:09: Clinton is asked about her immigration position and Edwards’ attack of the ‘politics of parsing.’ Clinton says people know where she’s stood, and talks of the importance of a tested candidate and leading from day 1. Obama is brought in regard ‘triangulating … whatever that means.’ He says that straight answers to tough questions are needed, and cites her answers the past two weeks, and also cites Social Security. Gives his stump speech of Washington changing. Clinton responds that Obama’s health care plan is a failure, as it leaves 15 million people out (coincidentally the population of Nevada, SC, Iowa, and New Hampshire). Obama says the problem is nto mandating health care plans, but making it available and affordable. Clinton jumps in, saying the Obama’s plan “does not cover everyone” and “does not mandate the kind of change mine does” as Obama says “that’s not true.” Blitzer tries to move on, but Obama forces an answer as someone in the audience starts yelling, distracting Obama. Now John Edwards finally gets a chance, saying it is about ‘trust,’ and there are fair questions. He goes over Iraq, Iran, Social Security, and change in general. Much more concise and focused of an answer than Obama’s repetitive answers. People in the audience are getting restless and yelling randomly. Clinton indicates that Edwards’ attacks are out of the Republican attack book, and that Edwards was not for universal health care when he ran in 04 but is now. Hillary bringing out the big guns. Biden says that this is ridiculous, and it’s not what people care about. Says it’s about action, not experience and change. Cites Georgia, Russia, and Pakistan. Starts a laundry list of things he’s done, but cuts himself out.

8:20: Second question, Edwards is asked about changing his positions, on Yucca and health care. Says he thinks its about learning and maturing and everyone ought be willing to do that. Says that is different from saying two things at the same time. Edwards cites Clinton saying two things on trade in the past week, as the audience noticably groans. Says the question is about America. This is just a nightmare; the issues are not getting talked about, the only thing getting talked about is vague generalities. Now Dodd gets asked about saying Edwards has changed. Dodd says there is a shrillness to the debate, and truer words have never been spoken. Richardson starts off 24 minutes in by introducing himself, and says that Edwards wants to start a class war, Obama wants to start a generational war, and Clinton wants to keep the Iraq war going, and that he wants to give peace a chance. Light laughter for a line that must have seemed a lot better on paper. Finishes with a call to be positive … after slamming the top three. What a nightmare.

8:25: Everyone gets asked if they would support the nominee. Edwards asks if the question was planted, I roll my eyes. Everyone of consequence says yes, Bidenjokingly says “Hell no!”

8:26: Obama gets asked about immigration. Says people should be frustrated. Step one of his is border security, step two is holding employers accountable, and that would get them out of the shadows, and after they pay a fine and go to the back of the line, then there can be peace on the issue. Specifically on licenses, he says they come to work, not to go get food, and that he voted for it in Illinois. Blitzer presses for a yes or no, and Obama hedges a bit (oddly, given what he just said: it’s a bad moment. From five stars to zero in terms of clarity) and says it is a distraction. His first two answers were great, the last one was mediocre at best. Edwards says no, Dodd says no, Obama says yes, Clinton no, Kucinich argues about language, Richardson says he did it, and Biden says no. Richardson and Edwards elaborate at length.

8:34: Dodd is asked what is wrong with merit pay if teachers make a difference. Dodd talks about the standards being crucial, and education is the most important issue. He gets a loud cheer for attacking No Child Left Behind, and then gives a -yawn- laundry list of bills he was involved in. He calls for a single debate on education. Blitzer says that “they’re talking about education now” before changing the subject to unions. Kucinich is asked if there are any unions with which he disagrees. Kucinich says unions are key to human rights, and workers should be included in trade deals. Richardson says he wants to be the education President and teachers are underpaid, and NCLB should be abolished. Clinton says that merit pay should be by school, and that teachers who are bad should be weeded out. This debate is slightly better now that it’s not meta, but just about issues. Biden says that the judgment should be improving themselves outside of the classroom. Talks about his plan to spend more money on education.

8:42: Biden is asked about Pakistan, and the balance between democracy and a key allies. Biden says he’s talked personally to Musharaff and Bhutto, even before Bush did. Says he would take action on military aid and increasing economic aid to help the middle class. Richardson is asked about his proposal to cut off military aid helping the terrorists there. Richardson says that human rights should be more important than security (Carter-esque) and gives his own laundry list of conditions for aid. Says that Islamists get 15% if the vote in Iran, so moderates should win in free elections. When asked if human rights are more important than security, he says yes, and talks about Halliburton for some reason. Edwards talks about reasonable goals for Iran, including elections and nuclear weapons. He says that the ad hoc approach of dealing with nuclear weapons will not work, and instead there should be a long term international effort to rid the world of nuclear weapon. Obama says that the concepts of human rights and national security are not contradictory. Dodd starts out with criticizing Bush, and says obviously national security is more important, and that balance is necessary to prevent Islamists winning across the Mideast. He does not want to condition aid, and terminating the relationship leaves the country more dangerous. Clinton agrees with Dodd, and criticizes Bush on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Clinton cites calling for a Pakistani envoy earlier in the year. Kucinich complains about not getting to answer as Blitzer ignores him.

8:53: Richardson is asked about the surge if it is working. He says body counts are pointless, and no benchmarks are being met. Says troops need to get out and a political agreement negotiated. He’s not clear how he would do that. Kucinich is asked the same, and talks about his record on Iraq. Then criticizes the Democrats for funding. Kucinich says on Pakistan that aggression on Iraq and Iran helped cause these problems. Obama talks about regional diplomacy and working towards a political solution. Saying that going from horrible to intolerable is not a justification for the surge.

8:58: Do people who voted to open trade from China bear responsibility for faulty toys? Kucinich says yes, and says China has massive problems. Kucinich attacks Edwards for opening trade from China, and that it hurt workers. Also attacks him for being a trial lawyer. Edwards says that America’s trade policy has been a disaster. Edwards tries to deflect the attack on the Clintons for passing NAFTA but not universal health care. Edwards says the mistake is not holding China responsible, but bringing them into the WTO is not the problem. Clinton is asked if Perot (???) was right on NAFTA. Says that investigations should be done to make sure things are safe, and if not, nothing should be brought in. Says NAFTA was a mistake to the extent it did not do what they thought it would. Reminder about time outs on trade are needed. Dodd jumps in and reminds about Obama and Clinton supporting the Peruvian trade deal. Dodd adds that he calls for action on China. Obama clarifies that he did not flip-flop on Peru, and distinguishes it from Korea or CAFTA. Compares America to Japan on China, and failure on that. Biden says that action can be done under the WTO, and action can simply be taken. Candidates are all wanting more time.

9:06: Yucca question, what to do with the waste. Obama says that there’s no reason for Nevada to be the reason to repository for waste, and science is working on other options. He then talks about his energy plan broadly. Blitzer follows up where the waste should go, and Obama says that Blitzer needs to stop making assumptions. Richardson says he was in charge of the labs Obama mentioned. Richardson says he opposed it all his life (despite voting for it at one point) and that he would turn Yucca into a research facility, and nuclear is not an option. Calls for an energy revolution.

9:12: Is Clinton playing the gender card? Clinton says she’s playing the winning card, not the gender card. And adds that it’s because she is winning, to applause. Follow up about what she meant about the ‘boys club’ she mentioned. She says there have been ‘impediments’ to women and a glass ceiling for women. Everyone is asked about if Clinton is playing the gender card. Edwards says differences should be brought up. Edwards mentions Clinton taking money from lobbyists, and the crowd boos.

That wraps up part 1 of the worst debate so far this year. Except for Clinton, probably, who’s attacking others and then riding high on incredible support inside the auditorium.

Part 2, questions from voters.

9:27: First question from a mother of someone who did three tours of duty in Iraq who wants the troops to come home now. How would people show leadership on Iran. Biden says that it’s important to take a stand, referencing Kyl-Lieberman and it was a mistake that convinced the rest of the Muslim world that America is against them. Blitzer asks Clinton about voting for the resolution. Says the fear about the resolution is baseless but does not elaborate at all, and says aggressive diplomacy with Iran is needed, to just get them to the table. Says that Iranian Nation Guard has killed soldiers in Iraq and sanctioning them is part of diplomacy. Edwards is asked about Clinton’s comments, and says that stopping Bush and Cheney is the crucial element. Obama says the problem with the vote was not just about declaring the group a terrorist, but that it also said that forces should remain in Iraq to blunt diplomacy. Obama is asked about missing the vote and says it was a mistake. Everyone thanked the soldier and his mother. Kucinich tries to get in and Blitzer ignores him.

9:32: Another question from a mother of someone serving in Iraq, about troops making significantly less than private contractors, and also wishing Richardson a happy birthday. Richardson says he pull out private contractors and enlarge the military. Also talks about health care cards for veterans and mental health care.

9:34: Racial profiling question from an Arab-American (he may not be Arab-American, which would be horribly ironic). Edwards asmits he voted for the Patriot Act, but it needs to be changed, and illegal spying needs to stop, and Guantanamo needs to be closed and torture ended. Kucinich says he voted against the Patriot Act because he read it. Kucinich says people who are profiled are owed an apology. Says that people are changing their position far too often, and impeachment needs to be done now. Biden says that nothing in the Patriot Act allows profiling, it’s just a convenient excuse. Biden says that the two leading candidates voted to fund Guantanamo, but the standard should be a plan now.

9:39: Question about Lou Dobbs linking terrorism and illegal immigration despite no terrorist coming from the southern border. Richardson first says he was not in Washington for many of these votes, and Congress’ approval rating is lower than Cheney’s. Talks about declaring a border emergency in New Mexico, but it’s time to stop demonizing immigrants. Talks about tougher diplomacy with Mexico and no fence among otherwise a very conventional comprehensive plan. Dodd responds in Spanish at first. Says that a fence in some places would make sense. Says that upholding rights and security is important.

9:42: Question from a grandmother who works in a casino, about what happens when the Baby Boomers retire en masse and what happens with Social Security and Medicare. Obama thanks the Culinary workers. Talks about fiscal discipline will help but not cure everything. Says adjusting the payroll tax cap will help with Social Security. On Medicare, says it is tougher because of health care inflation. Says a universal health care plan with prevention will save money and save Medicare. Clinton is asked by Blitzer about criticisms from Obama but ignores it and talks about fiscal discipline of the 1990s. Says a bipartisan commission will help. Says Obama’s plan is a one billion tax increase on the middle class. Compares the attack to Romney and Giuliani, playing with numbers, and just involves the top 6%. Clinton says that there are some in the middle class who are in that. Says Obama called for a bipartisan solution on MTP. Clinton is maintaining her composure far more than Obama tonight.

9:54: Dodd is asked about SCOTUS nominees. Dodd talks about a clear judicial record, not an academic, but not believing in litmus tests, although he feels strongly about Roe v. Wade. Biden refuses to just answer Blitzer’s question, and says he has taken on justices. Biden says he will nominate a woman next, and a right to privacy exists under the 14th Amendment. Richardson gives four questions he would ask, if that is a litmus test, so be it. Kucinich said he would have a litmus test on abortion, and he will lower the need for abortions. Clinton says any nominee would have to share her belief about privacy. Credits Biden on the issue. Obama says he would not appoint anyone who did not believe in a right to privacy, and that the Court is meant to protect the vulnerable in the political process. Edwards essentially agrees with Richardson, and cites Brown v. Board and the courage needed on the SCOTUS.

10:01: Obama is asked about uniting the country regarding the Middle East, but says he did not say that Clinton could not unite the country. Says that he would hold regular foreign policy meetings with Republicans and Democrats. Clinton is asked about being too polarizing, says she heard the same thing in New York. Says she will enlist the best of the best. Biden answers the question by talking about being respected in the Congress. Richardson talks about his record and his approach to Israel, including an envoy.

10:08: For Clinton: Diamonds or pearls? She says she wants both. Biden says he likes diamonds.

That’s all.

My quick rankings:

1. Clinton

2. Edwards

3. Biden

4. Obama
5. Dodd
6. Kucinich
7. Richardson

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (11/05/07)

This podcast covers the MSNBC Democratic debate in Pennsylvania. Specifically, we discuss (1) Hillary Clinton and immigration, (2) the styles of Obama and John Edwards, (3) how the campaign has progressed since the debate, (4) Biden and his quips and more…

[Note: audio problems have been corrected in this podcast...many thanks for your patience]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Giuliani Criticizes Clinton And Obama For Supporting Diplomacy With Iran; Suggests They’re Supportive Of Bin Laden And Ahmadinejad

Speaking in New Hampshire yesterday, Rudy Giuliani expressed strong support for the war in Iraq and chided Democratic rivals on Iraq and other foreign policy issues.

On Iraq:

“I think they’re going to change their minds. I think the verdict of history is going to be that it was the right decision…Do I think the mission overall in Iraq is the correct one, I think without a doubt it is.”

Giuliani also argued that without the war in Iraq, we would currently be dealing with both Iran and Iraq in a nuclear arms race.

From this rhetoric, we can glean some insight into Giuliani’s foreign policy perspective as well as his political strategy for dealing with the Iraq/Iran issue.

• First, it’s clear that Giuliani is linking Iraq to Iran. His argument is that whether or not you support the Iraq war, it has served as a helpful component of foreign policy because it removed the possibility of a nuclear arms race between the two countries.
• Secondly, this linking of Iraq and Iran serves a political benefit. The political reality is that a Republican candidate will have to deal (politically) with the unpopular Iraq War. Accordingly, linking the unpopular war to Iran, which people view as a legitimate threat, may help stave off the attacks that a Republican candidate can expect for supporting the Iraq War.

Giuliani also took Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to task for their support of diplomacy with Iran:

“This is the world we live in. It’s not this happy, romantic-like world where we’ll negotiate with this one, or we’ll negotiate with that one and there will be no preconditions, and we’ll invite (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad to the White House, we’ll invite Osama (bin Laden) to the White House.”

Adding:

“Hillary and Obama are kind of debating whether to invite them [bin Laden and Ahmadinejad] to the inauguration or the inaugural ball.”

The Obama camaign quickly replied to Giuliani’s remarks:

“Mayor Giuliani has stooped to a disgraceful new low that embraces the very worst legacy of George Bush and Dick Cheney’s cynicism and divisiveness. We must be united in our determination to hunt down Osama bin Laden, something that George Bush and Rudy Giuliani’s disastrous Iraq War has prevented. Mayor Giuliani’s cheap applause lines, unfounded political smears, and shoot-first-think-later politics are irresponsible in a campaign, and would be catastrophic in a presidency.”

Two remaining thoughts…

• I have concerns with a presidential candidate seemingly ruling out diplomacy. In a campaign where candidates cannot and will not rule out the use of nuclear attacks or pre-emptive strikes, is diplomacy really that destructive of a concept that it needs to be ruled out before you even have an opportunity to develop foreign policy as president. I’m not necessarily saying that Giuliani is wrong, I’m simply saying that it does create a needless starting point for his foreign policy should he be elected.
• I’m not entirely comfortable with juxtaposing Iran and Al-Qaeda without clarifying that they are not connected. Indeed, both Iran and Al-Qaeda pose a threat to the U.S. or U.S. interests (although, not necessarily the same degree of threat); however, they are very different. For starters, Iran is mostly Shi’a and Al-Qaeda is Sunni. The differences go on, but the purposes of this point, it’s not necessary for me to continue. As a presidential candidate, I would not want to blur the lines between the two. People need to understand the complexities of the threats and complications affecting our foreign policy. This is more a critique of election rhetoric in general and less a specific critique of Giuliani’s statements, although I think he, like others, are guilty of this issue in their political rhetoric.
• From a political perspective, Giuliani’s rhetoric will help him, at least for now.

[Photo Credit: 4president.us]

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