When Does Leading Become Winning?

The Clinton and Obama campaign are arguing over what tomorrow’s primaries are going to mean. That is when Obama is going to secure a majority of pledged delegates. That won’t be enough to put him over the top - he’ll need more superdelegates and add-ons, but it does mean something. The Clinton campaign has essentially three responses:

1) Michigan and Florida!.

2) So what, you need superdelgates.

3) Millions more have to vote.

The third is the easiest to debunk. It’s superficially true, but ultimately pointless. After tomorrow, there are three primaries left: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. Using the population figures of Wikipedia (because they’re freely available), 98.1% of the country will have had a chance to vote in the Democratic primary. (This includes territories, since they vote in the primary.). I doubt the last 1.9% will be the deciding factor.

The first is fairly easy to debunk as well. Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote with Michigan and Florida included, but as RCP makes clear, she deliberately is not including the results of any caucuses that have any threshold requirements for viability. That makes results harder to gauge, but not impossible. For instance, no one disputed that Obama won Iowa. Moreover, if you include just Florida, where Obama was on the ballot, he is ahead in the popular vote count still. And in Michigan, while Clinton is strong, subsequent polls show a tight race. I’m willing to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt in that state in terms of being a strong candidate, but not infinitely stronger as her campaign would want you to believe by citing that election as meaningful. For instance, if you take Clinton off the ballot in the next most populous state, she would lose 330,000 votes and the popular vote would be out of reach. Moreover, Clinton herself had said that the Michigan primary would be meaningless. I’m all for looking to it for some meaning, but the particular vote count is pretty pointless. Even giving Obama the uncommitted vote in Michigan would give him the popular vote lead.

And as for the argument relating to superdelegates, well, Obama has more endorsements than Clinton on that front now.

No wonder Warren Buffett said the race was over today.

In short, to answer the headline question: it already has. Everyone is allowed a chance to vote, and the vote is meaningful, but not every vote is going to be decisive…

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Morning Briefing (April 9, 2008)

What’s news today…

• Mark Penn’s new role is clarified.  Despite all the hullabaloo, it’s clear that Penn will not play as influential a role as he was or what many still think he will.
• Sizzle: TNR scolds Obama for dismissing Clinton and McCain’s foreign policy experience as well as for  using his personal experience living abroad as a child to buttress his foreign policy credentials.
• An excellent look inside McCain’s campaign.  Is this what a McCain administration will look like?
• In our last podcast, we discussed Obama’s reversal on public financing and its political implications.  Coincidentally, it seems that Obama is preparing his justification for not opting into the public finance system should he become the nominee by contending, “We have created a parallel public financing system where the American people decide if they want to support a campaign they can get on the Internet and finance it, and they will have as much access and influence over the course and direction of our campaign that has traditionally been reserved for the wealthy and the powerful.”
• Why?  Howard Dean criticizes McCain and calls him “not a strong candidate.”  Somewhat ironically, one of the reasons he suggested McCain is a weak candidate is because “he is out of touch with the American people.”  To me, it certainly seems out of touch to suggest that McCain is a weak candidate.  I recognize that as Chairman, Dean has to support his party, but it seems that recognizing reality is often the fastest way to earn credibility.  Recognizing McCain’s strength is not mutually exclusive with opposing him.
• Bill Clinton’s recent trip to Puerto Rico could have gone better.  A report: While Clinton was giving a speech, in English:Nobody interpreted, and only a handful of audience members seemed to understand him. The crowd — raucous and dancing a few minutes earlier — remained mostly silent during the 10-minute speech. Some people left. Others chatted on their cellphones. ‘What is he saying? Do we clap now?’ asked Jerry Nieves Rosario, a college student who speaks only Spanish.
• Inform yourself: This roundup of Iran nuclear related news is useful.
• Can we just stop with the ‘calls to Al Gore‘ for the time being?  Honestly, who throws a shoe?
• A Democratic debate on Science?  Maybe, it’s still very early in the planning stage.  I like the idea, that’s for sure.

 

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (04/05/08)

During this show, the gurus discuss the state of the race, the Clinton tax returns, Obama’s strategy in Penn., McCain strategy, a general election preview and much more….

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast). 

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Everything You Never Wanted To Know About the Credentials Committee

In the past couple of days, there have been numerous breakdowns of the structure of the Credentials Committee, since Hillary Clinton mentioned being willing to take the fight to it on Sunday.

You can see the various takes of Chris Beam, Greg Sargeant, and David Paul Kuhn. Of course, Angelo gave his own explanation last week, that actually goes into the relevant questions a bit deeper. (UPDATE: Marc Ambinder points out that Kuhn in Politico got the number of people on the Committee wrong. Of course, Angelo had it at the right number, 186. Sigh.)

If you want a brief version, it’s this: Taking the fight to the convention is a futile choice. She’d have to convince Howard Dean’s faction to go along, and it seems the one thing Dean is concerned about is assuming the rules and sanctions he laid out maintain credibility.

Once again, though, it comes down to Dean being both the cause and failed solution. If Dean’s block of supporters announced support for a particular position vis-a-vis the Credentials Committee, it would be very difficult for both campaigns to balk, as they woul dhave to work together to get around it (and that is the most likely at all).

Read more

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Why the Michigan Primary Won’t Go Forward: All Your Base Are Belong To Us

Chris Beam explained the stalemate yesterday:

Clinton has long insisted that failing to seat Michigan’s delegates would be equal to disenfranchising voters. (That is, after initially agreeing that Michigan wouldn’t count.) Today, she even lumped Michigan’s revote in with the “long struggle” of “women, African-Americans, Latinos and others” to “get to the point where barriers have been knocked down and doors opened.” What would you call that, disenfranchisploitation?

But now Obama’s camp is using the same terminology. Clinton supporters Jon Corzine and Ed Rendell, governors of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, respectively, wrote a letter today to Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm reiterating their willingness to pay for a revote. Obama spokesman Bill Burton fired back, denouncing their willingness “to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters.”

Read more

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Hillary Clinton To Campaign In Michigan

The Clinton campaign just announced that Sen. Clinton will be campaigning in Michigan tomorrow:

The Clinton campaign today announced Hillary Clinton will travel to Detroit, Michigan tomorrow, Wednesday, March 19, hosting a “Solutions for America” event.

Read more

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Tomorrow’s Outrage, Today: Puerto Rico’s Primary Shuffle

In this campaign, there’s often a piece of news or information that despite being available for a while sits dormant until everyone decides to get outraged about it. Then, everyone discusses how terrible it is for a few days (or weeks) until the desperate search for something begins and then the cycle repeats itself. So, I offer you a possible topic of future outrage: Puerto Rico’s primary shuffle.

On March 6, Puerto Rico’s Democratic party announced that they would be changing their originally scheduled June 6 caucus to a primary scheduled for June 7. Read more

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No Re-Vote In Florida

Ben Smith has the details, and says it’s a not a good thing for Clinton. I’d tend to agree, but I think the stakes were sort of exaggerated in Florida from the start. Most of the Edwards supporters probably would have gone to Obama at the convention. Clinton loses a chance at a bigger win, but given all the incentives she gave leading up to Florida, and what else was on the ballot (such as the property tax measure that is now infamous), I’d have been surprised if the results would have been dramatically different.

The probable lost chance at a full delegate slate hurts a bit, but Clinton isn’t playing for delegates at this point.

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (March 16, 2008)

This podcast discusses (1) the state of the race; (2) updates on John McCain; (3) the Florida and Michigan delegation troubles; (4) a substantive discussion about Obama and Rev. Wright; (5) we answer questions from readers and (6) much much more…

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Morning Briefing (March 14, 2008)

These articles will get your day started…

1. The Rev. Wright controversy continues to make big news today. I have yet to find a really good article covering all dimensions of the issue, so I’ll probably just write one myself later today in consultation with JW. In the meantime, you can watch the video of his remarks here. (If you know of a really good article covering the issue, please notify us). While on the race issue, Kevin Drum offers some meaningful commentary on the issue and the coverage.
2. Matt Bai compares and contrasts (a phrase I haven’t used since 5th grade) the the chief strategists for the Obama and Clinton campaigns - David Axelrod and Mark Penn, respectively. For those that don’t know much about these guys, it’s worth a read since it’ll help illumine some of the meta issues of the campaign.
3. As many focus on the internecine struggle in the Democratic party, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain argues that

Read more

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Howard Dean is Blowing The Election Shofar

I wrote the following back in October regarding the plan of Howard Dean and the DNC to absolutely bar delegates from Florida and Michigan instead of merely punishing them as Republicans have done:

There’s a lot trends that are making the Democrats really confident going into this election. I’m curious, though, as to if that confidence can or will bubble over into arrogance. The sheer recklessness with which Dean is proceeding is something Republicans have rarely mentioned of late. Why? In the words of Napoleon, “Never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake.”
…
Howard Dean is going to rue the day he ignored such a moderate plan; the calendar is only going to get more complicated in coming years, not less, and none of the states cares one bit what Dean takes away from them. Particularly Michigan, where Carl Levin is out to end the dominance of Iowa and New Hampshire.

After Gov. Crist of Florida and Gov. Granholm of Michigan earlier this week sent a joint letter calling for seating of their delegates, Howard Dean and the DNC decided the time was ripe for a response.

And he decided to respond like a 4 year old, blaming everyone but himself. And I mean exactly that, sadly enough. He stated this morning on CBS’ Early Show: Read more

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February 9 Results: Kansas Caucuses, Louisana Primary, Nebraska Caucuses, Washington Caucuses

For the Democratic Party…

• Louisana Primary (56 delegates at stake):
  • Results not available yet, click here for latest
  • Notable News: Obama campaign requests assistance after reports of voting irregularities
• Nebraska Caucuses (24 delegates at stake)
  • Obama wins
  • No final numbers yet, click here for the latest
• Washington Caucuses (78 delegates at stake)
  • Obama wins
  • No final numbers yet, click here for the latest

For the Republican Party…

• Kansas Caucuses (39 delegates at stake)
  • Mike Huckabee (59.%), John McCain (23.5%), Ron Paul (11.2%)
  • Final results and delegate allocation here
• Louisiana Primary (20 delegates at stake)
  • Results not available yet, click here for the latest
• Washington Caucuses (18 delegates at stake)
  • Results not available yet, click here for the latest

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Results: West Virginia Closed Convention (Republican)

West Virgina’s primary isn’t until May, but the Republican Party held their convention today. The convention determined the allocation of 18 of the 30 delegates to the Republican Convention. Read more

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Super Tuesday: State And Delegate Overview (Democratic Primaries/Caucuses)

With the upcoming wave of primaries and caucuses on February 5 (also known as Super Tuesday), I figured it would be helpful to provide an overview of these states, talk about what’s at stake and offer other useful information (delegate counts, winner take all or proportional, open or closed primary, etc..).

[Complete Primary/Caucus Calendar]
[Republican Super Tuesday State And Delegate Overview] (coming soon)

A few key terms…

• Open Primary: Voters, regardless of party registration, may vote in either primary.
• Semi-Open: Voters, regardless of party registration, may vote in either primary; however, they must declare which primary they’ll be voting in prior to entering the voting booth.
• Closed: Voters may only vote in the primary for the party that they are affiliated with. Independents/non-affiliated voters are not allowed to participate.
• Semi-Closed: Registered voters many only vote in the primary for the party that they are affiliated with. Independents/non-affiliated voters may participate in the primary of their choosing (in some states these people have to publicly declare which primary they’ll be participating in prior to going into the voting booth, in some states they do not).
• Winner-Take-All: Candidate with the most votes wins all the delegates for that state.
• Proportional Delegate Awarding: The breakdown for this gets a bit complicated and in most circumstances it’s really not necessary to know the specifics. All you really need to know is that the winner of the state doesn’t receive all the delegates, rather, delegates are apportioned based on percentage of vote statewide and within districts.
• Superdelegate: Delegates to nominating convention that are not determined or bound by the results of the states primary/caucus. In short, they can support whom they choose.

California:

• Semi-Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 441
  • Proportional By District: 241
  • Proportional By State Total: 129
  • Superdelegates: 71
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton - 41.3%
  • Barack Obama - 38.8%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $17,250,689
  • Barack Obama: $15,101,099

New York:

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 281
  • Proportional By District: 151
  • Proportional By State Total: 81
  • Superdelegates: 49
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton - 53.8%
  • Barack Obama - 33.5%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $22,361,239
  • Barack Obama: $9,732,384

Illinois:

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 185
  • Proportional By District: 100
  • Proportional By State Total: 53
  • Superdelegates: 32
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Barack Obama: 55.3%
  • Hillary Clinton: 23.3%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $11,012,161
  • Hillary Clinton: 3,813,380

New Jersey:

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 127
  • Proportional By District: 70
  • Proportional By State Total: 37
  • Superdelegates: 20
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 46.8%
  • Barack Obama: 38.8%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $4,639,464
  • Barack Obama: $2,202,974

Massachusetts:

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 121
  • Proportional By District: 61
  • Proportional By State Total: 32
  • Superdelegates: 26
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 45.0%
  • Barack Obama: 27.5%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $3,766,766
  • Hillary Clinton:$2,762,204

Georgia:

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 103
  • Proportional By District: 57
  • Proportional By State Total: 30
  • Superdelegates: 16
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Barack Obama: 49.8%
  • Hillary Clinton: 35.5%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $1,320,995
  • Hillary Clinton:$1,024,637

Missouri:

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 88
  • Proportional By District: 47
  • Proportional By State Total: 25
  • Superdelegates: 16
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 46.3%
  • Barack Obama: 42.7%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $781,746
  • Hillary Clinton:$728,682

Minnesota:

• Open Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 88
  • Proportional By District: 47
  • Proportional By State Total: 25
  • Superdelegates: 16
• RCP Poll Data: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $630,361
  • Barack Obama: $613,069

Tennessee:

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 85
  • Proportional By District: 44
  • Proportional By State Total: 24
  • Superdelegates: 17
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 48.0%
  • Barack Obama: 30.7%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $309,440
  • Hillary Clinton:$265,354

Colorado:

• Closed Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 71
  • Proportional (but complex): 55
  • Superdelegates: 16
• RCP Poll Data: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $1,454,303
  • Hillary Clinton: $994,543

Arizona

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 67
  • Proportional By District (not congressional): 37
  • Proportional By State Total: 19
  • Superdelegates: 11
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 41.7%
  • Barack Obama: 35.7%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $683,222
  • Barack Obama: $352,587

Connecticut

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 60
  • Proportional By District: 31
  • Proportional By State Total: 17
  • Superdelegates: 12
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 41.7%
  • Barack Obama: 38.3%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $1,970,875
  • Hillary Clinton:$1,838,960

Alabama

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 60
  • Proportional By District: 34
  • Proportional By State Total: 18
  • Superdelegates: 8
• RCP Poll Average:
  • Hillary Clinton: 43.5%
  • Barack Obama: 42.0%
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $301,177
  • Barack Obama: $212,230

Oklahoma

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 47
  • Proportional By District: 25
  • Proportional By State Total: 13
  • Superdelegates: 9
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $494,879
  • Barack Obama: $398,537

Arkansas

• Open Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 47
  • Proportional By District: 22
  • Proportional By State Total: 13
  • Superdelegates: 12
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $1,005,953
  • Barack Obama: $52,172

Kansas

• Closed Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 41
  • Proportional (but complex): 32
  • Superdelegates: 9
• RCP Poll Data: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $124,724
  • Barack Obama: 130,899

New Mexico

• Closed Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 38
  • Proportional (but complex): 26
  • Superdelegates: 12
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $149,125
  • Hillary Clinton: $106,204

Utah

• Semi-Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 29
  • Proportional By District: 15
  • Proportional By State Total: 8
  • Superdelegates:6
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton:$357,567
  • Barack Obama: $264,749

Idaho

• Closed Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 23
  • Proportional (but complex): 18
  • Superdelegates: 5
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $60,425
  • Barack Obama: $58,681

Delaware

• Closed Primary
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 23
  • Proportional By District: 10
  • Proportional By State Total: 5
  • Superdelegates: 8
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Hillary Clinton: $110,701
  • Barack Obama: $45,149

North Dakota

• Open Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 21
  • Proportional (but complex): 13
  • Superdelegates: 8
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $13,428
  • Hillary Clinton: $3,695

Alaska

• Closed Caucus
• Proportional Delegate Awarding
• Total Delegates: 18
  • Proportional (but complex): 13
  • Superdelegates: 5
• RCP Poll Average: No Average Available/Sparse Poll Data
• Fundraising (Jan 1-Dec 30, 2007):
  • Barack Obama: $36,262
  • Hillary Clinton: $32,417

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Huckabee Digging Deep For Money, Supporters Selling Personal Belongings To Donate

In terms of finances, Huckabee is certainly struggling. As of today, he’s only raised about $3.4 million of his goal of $10 million by Super Tuesday. For starters, Huckabee really needed this money at least a few days before Super Tuesday in order for it to make any effect. Supporters of his campaign are currently organizing a “Max Out For Mike” event tomorrow. I’m all for grassroots efforts, but ones that suggest people sell personal belongings, work overtime or borrow against their anticipated tax refunds in order to donate as much as possible are somewhat unnerving. The organizers ask:

Although we don’t encourage anyone to contribute money they simply don’t have, look around you… what can you sell to a friend or online? Can you work some overtime? Can you cut back sacrificially on your spending temporarily? Also, how funny would it be to donate your forthcoming income tax rebate check from the government to Mike’s campaign and help put the IRS out of business!

Mike Huckabee’s campaign is promoting the effort on its official blog. I asked whether the Governor supports the suggestion that his supporters should go through the above mentioned lengths in order to support his campaign, but requests for comment from the campaign have not been responded to.

In other Huckabee fundraising news: Through the Huckabee’s Rangers program supporters are also offering matching funds to other donors in order to boost Huckabee’s coffers. Huckabee also turned to religion groups in order to raise funds. Last week, Huckabee, ostensibly skirting campaign finance laws, received approximately $1 million in pledges after a fundraising event at Kenneth Copeland Ministries in Texas:

The Trinity Foundation, a charity that monitors televangelists and viewed a live Internet broadcast of the event, said the fundraiser took in $111,000 and generated pledges nearing $1 million, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported in a copyrighted article Tuesday.

“Basically, Kenneth Copeland simply asked him how he could pray for him and the governor asked him to pray for physical stamina for the team and the financial resources that they need each day,” she said. “I’m not sure who called who.”

Huckabee’s campaign released a statement saying it rented a room for “a separate event that was hosted by a private individual” and was not affiliated with Copeland’s ministry. The campaign said the event conformed with campaign finance laws and tax regulations.

Huckabee has always had fundraising issues, but to his credit he does have a dedicated core of supporters. At this point, Huckabee’s lifeline will be Missouri, a delegate rich state and one where he has a legitimate chance to win on February 5. Huckabee himself recognizes the need to win Missouri, but he’s going to have to do a better job at convincing MO voters to support than he did at a recent campaign stop there. Right now, the momentum is with McCain and the money is with Romney, so Huckabee’s going to really need an effective Missouri strategy in order to pull out this critical victory and I really don’t think Ducan Hunter’s endorsement is going to make much of a difference.

[Photo Credit: NY Times]

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Live Blog of the CNN / LA Times / Politico Clinton - Obama Debate In Hollywood, California (January 31, 2007)

6:36: Tonight, it’s not about hope, it’s about hype.

The final scheduled debate of primary season is here. Finally. After 19 Republican debates and what will be tonight be the 21 debates for Democrats, it will finally be over. Aside from any debates that get scheduled on Meet the Press or some other show (please, no more Tim Russert.) We’re glad you stuck with us through all of this.

Of course, this will be the first of any of these debates to include only two people, making it either exceptionally theatrical or exceptionally meaningful. Frankly, it’s too soon to tell.

And with this much on the line, you want as much information as possible. That’s why CNN was kind enough to give us the best information they had available: a time lapsed video of the set being constructed. (We’re going to be in for a LONG night, folks).

Clinton! Obama! Blitzer! NO RULES!

Tonight, 8 ET. Live online on the CNN and LA Times webpages.

6:56: The Washington Post’s “Fact Checker” has the headline: “Democratic Debate, Jan. 30, 2008.” You cannot make this stuff up. It’s even in the URL!

7:31: Let me be quick on goals for tonight. Obama needs to make sure he maintains likability, especially after the whole (stupid) snub thing from the State of the Union. Clinton needs to distinguish herself from Obama as much as she can while maintaining the look of a frontrunner. And Blitzer needs to somehow regain his dignity.

Meanwhile, Bill Schneider on CNN invokes Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure in comparison to this debate. You know, the movie where Keanu Reeves was the good actor.

7:51: Leo Dicaprio, Steven Spielberg, Rob Reiner, and more are apparently in the house.

7:54: CNN notes that there’s signs against the war and signs for Ron Paul. Has such a large movement ever been worse than the Paul people at convincing people to even listen to their position? Even the 9/11 Truthers get more people to take them seriously.

7:56: CNN’s British comparison notes that it’s “almost a certainty” that the Democrats will nominate a woman or a black President. At an economic class, the top issue is apparently … the economy. Thanks, CNN!

7:58: Melissa Long points out how expensive the Kodak Theater was to build, and then runs the stupid time lapse video I referenced above. She then stresses that she walked by Brandy earlier. Uhm, wow.

8:00: Blitzer says we’re in the midst of glamour. Thanks, Wolf.

8:02: It’s the first time a woman and an African-American will be vying for the Democratic nomination, says Wolf. Really? Are you sure? Wolf moves on to introducing the press pool. Then, Clinton and Obama come out together, all smiles.

8:03: Three symbolic white folks come out to remind people others consider them important.

8:04: Blitzer demands that the press pool leave, and he says this “will be a debate in a traditional sense.” Oh yeah? Who’s on government and who is on opposition? Oh wait, they don’t mean that.

8:05: NO RULES! Opening statements.

8:06: Obama starts by thanking John Edwards. PANDER ALERT! Then says that either he or Hillary will be the next President, and that they are and will be friends. (FIX THE SNUB!). The segues into a few sentences from his stump speech. Says its not about demographics, but looking backwards or the future. Says it’s more than change from George Bush.

8:08: Clinton says its about 1/20/09, and it will be Barack or her, and who can deal with the problems sitting on the desk that date. Cites Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy, health insurance, energy, global warming, and other problems that will emerge. Goes over her Day 1 schtick, before citing the Edwardses (Obama cited Elizabeth too). Cites those living in poverty. Says that a problem solver who rolls up their sleeves is important.

8:11: First question is what Clinton considers the most important policy difference? She says he’s not a Republican at first. Well, thanks. Goes over health care, saying hers is like Edwards’. PANDER ALERT. She wants a moratorium on foreclosures for 90 days and to freeze interest rates for 5 years. She wants to be realistic and optimistic on foreign affairs. She does not want the prestige of the Presidency on the line to meet with dictators in the first year. She tries to link Republicans with the status quo and both of them with change.

8:14: Obama says those are generally differences. Cites health care being 95% the same, citing how both would help people like his mother. Says the problem is reducing costs of health care and making it affordable. Says Clinton would force people to buy it, and it requires an enforcement mechanism (applause). He says that they agree to keep people in their home. Says that he does not want an interest rates freeze as that would cause other rates to go way up. Blames it on Bush and a lack of oversight, and links it lobbyists, and says that it’s a real difference on influence. Cites Edwards (JE PANDER ALERT). Cites differing judgment on Iraq looking forward to show how they would differ. Cites the NIE on Iran.

Great start, mainly with no Wolf.

8:19: Question on Obama’s plan being voluntary. Why would his plan be superior if 15 million are left out. Obama says anyone who wants it can get it. Obama says that means there are 15 million who do not want it, and he disputes that. Mandatory for children, and people up to 25 will be covered under parents. Obama cites Massachusetts plan that has problems with mandates. Says what do you do with people who cannot afford it, citing garnishing wages.

8:21: Wolf says it’s a difference. Gee, thanks. Clinton is passionate about it, citing in passing ‘tackling it during my husband’s administration.’ Clinton says that her plan is to help the uninsured and underinsured. Says her plan is “aggressive” and provides “subsidies.” How is that different? I’m not sure. Mentions health care tax credits. Is that the ghost of Giuliani? Says that single-payer, mandate employers, or shared responsibility are the only three options. Clinton says Obama does nto think it would be politically feasible for mandates for adults, as Obama cooly shakes his head and indicates he wants a response. Cites Edwards on “biting the bullet.” (JE PANDER ALERT)

8:24: Wolf jumps in about those that do not buy in getting sick. Obama says that paying back premiums for those gaming the system. Obama says some subsidies on Clinton’s plan are insufficient. He says he wants to lower premiums, not cap them. Cites Ted Kennedy saying that Obama can pass health care. Says that you need to bring Republicans and Democrats together and not negotiate behind close doors, and instead broadcast negotiations on CSPAN. That’s a bit naive. Wolf asks if the CSPAN thing is a swipe at Clinton, Obama says transparency offsets the power of lobbyists. CNN cuts to Rob Reiner.

8:28: Blitzer cites the health care plan being formed in secret in 1993. Clinton says it was the beginning of a “conversation.” Uh, dodge. Cites S-CHIP. She wants to regulate the health care industry to covering everyone. Really? Under what authority can you make a private company do that, exactly? I’m genuinely curious. Clinton says too much is spent on the clinical studies and experimentation and Medicare needs to be able to negotiate. Finishes where she started, with calling for universal health care. Cites the attack ads in 1994 about what people want and will accept. Talks about persuading Congress to air meetings on CSPAN being hard. Sigh. What a dumb area to have a disagreement over. Talks about building a pro-health coalition.

8:31: Why are you raising taxes to pay for health care? Obama says the GOP lost fiscal responsibility, and suddenly Obama rips into McCain way more than Romney did by saying that the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels after he stopped criticizing the Bush tax cuts. Moves into what his tax plan, been there done that. Buffet paying too little, and middle class too much, etc. And George Costanza is in the building. Someone needs to knee-cap the director here.

8:35: Clinton would allow tax cuts of those earning over $250k to expire. Talks about how bad US health care is for what they spend. Cites infant mortality rate. Cites other ideas, like electronic medical records and the Rand Corporation. Wolf wants to be precise!

8:37: Will there be an effective tax hike? They both start answering, and Clinton defers before Obama does, and he jokes about the rich crowd there being able to pay a bit more. Clinton wants to underscore that they are the tax rates of pre-Bush.

8:38: Immigration, now. What about the negative impact of immigration on the African American community? Obama first. He cites his work as an organizer and that the insecurity is beyond any one race. Says that it is scapegoating to just blame immigrants. Says that getting control of the borders is important, as it cracking down on employers. Cites a pathway to citizenship for illegals already here. Cites the problem being a problem of a bad economy, infrastructure and education.

8:42: Drivers license for illegals for Clinton. She says that employers exploit undocumented workers and there are job losses. Cites a black man telling her that he cannot get construction jobs anymore. Talks about helping “friends to the south” create more jobs as well. Goes over what the standards for citizenship would be. Says drivers license would be a ‘privilege’ that you can only address down the line.

8:46: Obama is asked about when he stood up for immigration. Cites who he worked with, again getting a dig on McCain. Says it does not poll well but it is the right thing to do. Blitzer thinks he was insulting Clinton. Obama says you have to stand up when its tough, not on the campaign. Wolf does not understand! He says that if you pass comprehensive immigration reform, you won’t have to deal with drivers licenses.

8:48: Wolf asks if she was MIA. Clinton says she cosponsored a bill before Obama came to the Senate. Do people understand how easy it is to cosponsor something? I just cosponsored 5 things. Done. She segues into discussing her endorsement of the Farm Workers. People out there are nervous about immigration and people are looking for some immigration. Clinton says she asks people what they would do about it, and they then understand. Wolf says what about drivers licenses. Clinton says it is a diversion from building a coalition.

8:51: Obama says she gave numerous answers before. Obama says it is a difficult political issue, and he agrees with Richardson (PANDER) on the issue. Says they agree more between themselves.

8:52: Clinton says they agree on that, and that she was supporting her governor but did not agree and Obama did not answer a question a week later. Says fair minded Republicans will join them on the issue.

Garkbit … err, I mean … Wolf Blitzer throws us to a break.

8:57: Question for Obama on Clinton being more experienced. Obama says a lot of Americans disagree as well. Says that he spent his life trying to bring about change. Organizer, civil rights attorney, legislator, and Senator. Says that bringing people, ethical reform, and talking straight is important. Says he respects Clinton’s experience but the skills he needs are important.

9:00: Wolf asks what of her experience in the White House means. She says it goes back 35 years to the Children’s Defense Fund. She worked for the Legal Services Corporation and grew it. Aide to prisoners and reform in Arkansas. Says she had responsibility in the White House, and if she was not successful, she got SCHIP through. Drug reform and adoption from foster care reform as well. Talks about negotiating with the Macedonian government and talking about women’s rights in Beijing. Said she worked with people who did not think they would work with her.

9:02: An ONLINE question! Ooooooohhhh! What about a running a government like a business like Romney? Clinton says government is not a business, and George W. Bush is a CEO type.

9:04: Obama says that his management style over the past year compares well, and Romney did not get a good return on his investment. Obama’s pretty funny tonight.

9:05: Clinton is asked about the endorsement of Ted Kennedy, she says she has her own Kennedys and that being the first woman president is a big change. I think actually making that argument is pretty bad; it’s about what the President does, not what race or gender they are. If George Bush turned out to be a woman, would that change anything for anyone? Aside from Laura Bush, probably not. Clinton then segues into a long discussion of whom you vote for based no the person themselves.

9:07: For Obama, how should you remember the Clinton administration? Obama says they look good, especially compared to the Bush Administration. Agrees you have to decide on whom they are. Obama says that he is bringing in a whole new generation of voters. Says part of being President is not settling and is reaching out to people. Obama talks up the high level of support he brings in (being careful to not take total credit).

9:10: Another online question: How can you have change when there is the Bush / Clinton thing. Pierce Brosnan in the house! I wonder if he pretended to kill some old guy in the bathroom with Greg Kinnear. She says she is proud of Bill’s administration. Talks up the change under Bill of jobs and surpluses. gives the line about takinga Clinton to clean up after a Bush to some insane applause for a line that’s been around for 9 months.

Wolf throws to a break! Just remember: “The purpose of the office of the president is not to wield power, but to draw attention away from it.”

9:16: Wolf tells us people are outside. Sucks for them. Iraq! Both called for gradual withdrawal; why should people not worry about an open ended commitment. Talks about how she got into an argument with the Pentagon. Says it is more than bringing troops home, and is about protecting the embassy and what to do about Iraqis that helped Americans. Wants to confront the Iraqi government on taking action. Says they were both ‘pressed’ by some of their opponents in debates on the matter. Anti-pander? She hopes that 16 months is appropriate.

9:20: Obama doesn’t distinguish himself from Clinton on the matter, rather taking on McCain. Then talks about Pakistan and China, and how the war is undermining long term security. Obama says setting a date is important to send a message about how serious we are. Obama says that the approach to Iran within Iraq is a real difference between them, and that because of the difference he would offer the most clear contrast. Talks of ending the mindset that began the war.

9:23: Blitzer says it is a “clear swipe” at Clinton. Both of them disagree. Clinton cites Maxine Waters as someone that wants to get out of Iraq, and the CNN celebrocam 5000 actually finds her on cue. Clinton goes over some of the same territory. Clinton then says Iran and Syria will be drawn into divisiveness in the area and that you have to bring Iran and Syria to the table. Didn’t they just have the question on whom they will negotiate with? Clinton goes off on the ‘no permanent bases without approval of the Senate’ thing again.

9:25: Question on judgment on Iraq. Why did Clinton not vote for the Levin amendment? She said she believed in inspectors, and respects Levin, but that amendment was drafted in a way to subordinate judgment to the UN Security Council. Says she voted with Byrd on the value of a pocket constitution, err, I mean authority limited to one year. She blames Bush for waging the war and waging it poorly. Says that the issue is Republicans v. Democrats, citing McCain attacking her. Says the nominee has to have credentials and gravitas for commander in chief. (Uhm, that’s a swipe). She’s calling out Obama for being perceived as inexperienced.

9:29: Wolf jumps in with Petraeus’s comments on stability. Obama says he welcomes the progress and he wants the mission completed honorably. But says that calling it success means the bar is set below the sand. Says we are back to where we were 2 years ago, while Afghanistan is worse than it was before Iraq. Obama says consistency on the matter is an issue, and that it is beyond a problem of execution. Says it was a conceptually flawed mission from the start. Gives the standards for what he would do as C-in-C.

9:32: Wolf wants Clinton to just say the vote was a mistake. Clinton says sending inspectors was a good idea, and she believes in ‘coercive diplomacy.’ Says no one could anticipate how obsessed Bush would be. Says that she would not have done that if she was President. Talks about her visit to Afghanistan. Says you have to be as strong or better than Republicans on national security to “join issues of the future.” What does that mean? Wolf wants to know is she was naive for trusting Bush, and the crowd gets all over him for the bad question. Clinton answer by talking about how her and Obama were the same once he came to the Senate on the issue. Clinton says she was told by the White House that it was just about inspectors. Cites “we” bombing them in 1998 to get inspectors back in.

9:37: Obama cites the title to use force in Iraq, and it was potentially a vote to go to war, and the headlines reflect that. Obama says its about being right on day 1, and his judgment is relevant to how we make judgments in the future in a dangerous world. Cites the danger of terrorism and having finite resources. Says you need clear intelligence and a good rationale.

Blitz throws to a break. As for Wolf, “Charming man. I wish I had a daughter so I could forbid her to marry him…”

9:43: Back. Question for Obama on whether there is too much sex and violence out of Hollywood. Says he looks at it as a parent, and the primary responsibility if from parents, and not of censorship. Says parents need to have tools to deal with TV and the internet. Stevie Wonder! Rob Reiner! Obama wants concern on whom the more violent things are being marketed to, and you need to work with the industry on that.

9:45: Question on Bill for how he has criticized Obama. If you cannot control him now, what will it be like in the White House? Clinton says it is her campaign and should be focused on issues. Anyone care to bring up the NYT Kazakhstan article tonight? Anyone? Hillary is happy Chelsea is here, apparently.

9:47: People see them as a dream ticket, says Wolf! Jokes aside, Obama says that there is more road to travel and is premature and presumptuous to say anything. Obama says that he wants great people who can disagree with him in the White House. He says people want to know that government is on their side.  Wolf wants an answer!? He says Clinton would be on anyone’s short list.

9:50: Clinton agrees with Obama. Why is Wolf pushing for a hard answer to such a meaningless question that they have an obligation to not answer? Clinton says there will be a unified Democratic party.  Clinton segues into an awkward plug for her national townhall meeting on Monday. That was really, really, really weird.

That wraps up the debate. And one last line of our last live blog for the time being.

OR IS IT?? Wolf says there will be debates on Feb. 27 and 28 if there is no resolution by then.

As for post debate coverage on CNN, remember: “For a moment, nothing happened. Then, after a second or so, nothing continued to happen. “

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Live Blog Of CNN / LA Times / Politico Republican Debate In California (January 30, 2008)

[NOTE: If you're looking for coverage of the CNN/LA Times/Politico Democratic Debate in California between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, you can find our live blog of that debate here]

Tonight is the CNN/Los Angeles/Politico Republican Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. It will begin at 8pm est and will air on CNN and will stream live at both CNN and LA Times‘ websites. The participating candidates will be Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

7:45: 15 minutes to go. I’m not sure what the seating locations will be yet, but I do know that McCain’s staffer won the first pick for location on the stage and had to call back to headquarters to confirm the location.

7:49: Format: No rules, No time limits. I guess ever since Wolf Blitzer threw out the rules at the last debate, CNN’s just decided to really go wild.

7:58: Lou Dobbs is expressing outrage (not necessarily about anything specific…just outrage…he wants you to know that he’s very disturbed).

8:00: And here we go! Anderson Cooper begins with a history lesson about the room they’re in. Usually, I’m opposed to these kind of explanatory intros, but given the fact that the debate is being held under the old Air Force One, I can understand the need to explain what the deal with the plane is.

8:03: First question, are Americans better off now than they were 8 years ago? Mitt Romney says that that’s a question for President Bush, then launches into defense of his record in Mass. Anderson Cooper gets indignant and wants an answer, Romney shows viewers that he’s able to stand up to Anderson Cooper, but does offer some discussion of the problems he sees in America now.

8:06: McCain says he’ll bring some straight talk, offers a bit of gloom and then talks about making the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain states that he believes Americans are better off now than they were 8 years ago, if you look at everything.

8:07: Huckabee plainly states that he doesn’t think we’re better off now than we were 8 years ago, states that the President isn’t solely responsible, so is the congress. Huckabee says that Americans want someone that is honest and straight with them. I wonder if he’s aware that McCain already has that catchphrase locked up?

8:09: Paul states the problems are caused by foreign policy and we must acknowledge that those policies need to come to an end.

8:12: Romney takes a shot at McCain’s conservatism by noting McCain’s NY Times endorsement. McCain reminds Romney that both of Romney’s hometown papers, which know him best, endorsed him over Romney. Ouch. McCain continues to talk up his conservatism by mentioning some people that support him.

8:15: Romney defends his record on job growth by noting that some of the negative data on job growth included a time period under the former Governor. He also explains the fee increases under his administration. Romney also touts the work he did on health care and notes that when he left there was a balanced budget and a small surplus.

8:18: Huckabee talks conservatism: lower taxes, streamlining the government, amendment banning gay marriage and a life amendment. Something about these, “who is more conservative” questions seem sort of pointless at some point.

8:21: McCain is asked about Gov. Schwarzenegger’s environmental law proposals, which are much different than the steps that the Bush Administration would take towards combating climate change. Given the impending endorsement for Arnold, obviously McCain needs to tread lightly and he does. He responds by noting that he believes in federalism, which has really turned into code for “I won’t force you to do something. Please don’t shy away from me because of this issue.” McCain then gives his oft used version of Pascal’s Wager for support of green technology.

8:25: Romney says that he supports states’ rights to control and regulate their own emissions. Huckabee then tries to explain why Federalism is good, he then goes on to state that Alexander Hamilton was wrong. Uhhhh….he’s having a difficult enough time staying in this race against Romney, McCain and Paul…I’m pretty sure injecting Hamilton into this race would only make it worse for him. *sigh*

8:29: Paul asks for some time to discuss and issue and Cooper denies him. For a debate that wasn’t really supposed to have rules, Anderson Cooper seems awfully indignant.

8:33: Talk turns to the economy…excuse me while I relocate to the top floor of my building, preferably a seat near the edge…

8:35: On the economic stimulus: McCain says that we will probably need more. Wow! This is like saying that we need more puppies, fluffier pillows or locations that have Coke Zero available from the fountain.

8:36: McCain is challenged on his initial opposition to Bush’s tax cuts on the grounds that they favored the rich too much. McCain states that he was a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution…then proceeds with obfuscation.

8:40: The topic changes to immigration. Huckabee thinks we need to secure the border. He says that two things need to happen in order to do that: 1) build border fence and 2) all current illegal immigrants will need to go back to their home countries and wait in line. Ultimately, Huckabee thinks this is the most compassionate and kind thing…

8:41: Romney is asked about his statement that most illegal immigrants could be deported within 90 days. He didn’t initially recall saying it, and the questioner offered him the quote. Romney talks about being courteous deportation. For example, if the family has a child in school, you let the child finish that school year first. Romney reemphasizes he would not allow illegal immigrants to remain here permanently, then suggests that McCain’s legislation would have allowed for such a thing.

8:44: McCain is asked if his legislation were to come to the floor of the Senate today, and he states that it won’t happen. After being pressed, he states that he would not vote for it because it’s clear that people want the borders to be secured first. It seems somewhat inconsistent for McCain to tout sticking to his principles and ignoring the majority on Iraq…yet, so freely acknowledging deference to the will of the American people on the immigration issue.

8:47: Huckabee is asked if Reagan’s appoi