Mark Warner to Give Dem Keynote Address

Like Barack Obama in 2004, former virginia Gov. Mark Warner has an overwhelming lead to take a formerly Republican seat in the Senate. And now he is giving the Democratic keynote address.

Nate Silver:

Contrary to the reporting of some outlets, Hillary Clinton had never formally been guaranteed the keynote slot — rather, she had merely been guaranteed a prime-time speaking slot on Tuesday. But the perception out there was that Tuesday would be “her” night, and we can expect some growling from the PUMAs about Hillary being snubbed.

One would hope, however, that the Obama campaign was not so callous as to give Warner the nod without vetting/negotiating their position with the Clintons — perhaps in exchange for the prime-time slot that Bill was given on Wednesday night. To have had Hillary keynoting on Tuesday and then Bill headlining on Wednesday — he will surely upstage the VP’s speech — might have risked a Clinton overdose. There are risks in doing things this way too, however.

Biggest loser in all of this? Tim Kaine, who if given the VP slot, might seem like sloppy seconds next to Warner.

Silver also concludes that this might mean good things for Kathleen Sebelius as VP. This seems to eliminate Kaine as a possibility, and it also underlines the themes of change and being a Washington outsider.

Eve Fairbanks is underwhelmed:

When the Obama press-team email “WARNER TO DELIVER CONVENTION KEYNOTE ADDRESS” hit my inbox at 7:15 this morning, for a minute I actually thought, “Oh my God! It’s a coup! They’ve gotten John Warner to break ranks!”, until I clicked through and saw that, of course, the Warner in question was Mark.

I’m sure the charming, youthful, up-and-coming Warner will give a nicely charming, youthful, and up-and-coming speech in Denver. But I also think my reaction reflects something about Mark Warner: he’s a little forgettable, especially after he suddenly begged off of what seemed like an inevitable run for the top this year. I know he’s supposed to be the Next Big Thing in Democratic politics, but hasn’t that been true for a while now? Will he ever stop hovering around “Next” and make a pass at being the Big Thing proper?

Jim Geraghty takes the opportunity to hit Kaine, and to chide Warner for avoiding unpopular fights:

The Post quotes a Kaine source as saying the governor thinks he’ll get “the silver medal” in the veep race.

I am not quite convinced that that would be the decisive factor, as opposed to, say, inanely inaccurate statements in defense of Obama in recent weeks. After all, two Virginians gave the response to the President’s state of the union two years in a row, Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb.

At the 2004 GOP convention, Rudy Giuliani spoke Monday night and George Pataki spoke Thursday before President Bush (in probably one of his best speeches ever). Bloomberg spoke as well. A multitude of New Yorkers didn’t seem all that inappropriate for a convention in New York City.

All in all, for a Democrat, Mark Warner isn’t that bad, as a speaker or as a face of the party. Or at the very least, as governor, he was very, very careful to avoid unpopular fights.

Lynn Sweet laughs at anyone who thought Clinton would be giving the keynote:

The way these things work is that there are convention speakers and then there are people officially designated as keynoters. Such will be the case at the Democratic convention in Denver. With some fanfare on Sunday, some big name speakers were announced, including on Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). If you by chance thought she was the keynoter, you jumped to a conclusion. The keynoter, unveiled on Wednesday, is former Virginia Gov. and senate candidate Mark Warner.

Marc Ambinder noted two days ago how close Mark Warner could have been to running for President (and losing, since he would not have gotten the black vote that Obama got):

If Edwards’s affair had been revealed earlier, such as, say, right after it began, Mark Warner might have stayed in the presidential race. Indeed, if Mark Warner had decided to run for president, then he might have filled the anti-establishment void that Barack Obama jumped into. If, If, if.

I’m generally not a big fan of reading too much into keynote speakers. They generally have very little impact on the election. The tea leaves may indicate something, but it’s generally something very obvious. The obvious facts are these:

1. Tim Kaine was never the favorite for VP, and Mark Warner did not want to be VP.
2. Mark Warner shares a lot of traits with Barack Obama that Barack Obama feels are very important.
3. Mark Warner is from a swing state and is going to win his election going away.

I’m sure there will be some Clinton supporter unrest, but that seems to be inevitable at this point. It’s more important for Obama to emphasize what he is for than to worry about the remnants of the Clinton coalition getting upset at any particular position.

PS: Consider Sebelius my official VP pick, with Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer as the dark horse candidate (if he agrees).

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Thursday Senate Roundup

New Hampshire: John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen both had successful second quarters fundraising; Sununu has a cash on hand advantage, but Shaheen has a big advantage in the polls. Sununu is also making a push to increase spending to minimize increased heating costs this coming winter in New Hampshire. A third party group is going to start advertising against Sununu for supporting conservative judges. Sununu talked up health insurance for small businesses, while Democrats criticized him for his vote on Medicare yesterday, which received extended discussion in New Hampshire as a result of Ted Kennedy’s last second appearance. Raffle watch: Jeanne Shaheen does what Barack Obama cannot.

Minnesota: Al Franken is proposing a permanent lobbying ban for members of Congressfrom ever becoming lobbyists. Coleman and Franken both had another successful month fundraising, raking in 2.26 million despite having serious problems with his campaign. The Minnesota race between Coleman and Franken is by far the most expensive Senate race this cycle. Franken and Coleman sparred over energy and the effectiveness of drilling for oil in the Outer Continental Shelf. The AP took a look at the liabilities of being an entertainer that Franken brings with him. They have some good insight, but I think the bigger problem for Franken has been the sloppiness in which he’s run his campaign. A veteran politician, or someone that was already vetted with a lower tough race would have been able to pivot more to his ideas instead of getting stuck in traction at a lot of petty type of scandals like workers comp or paying taxes or what not. Franken will complain when he loses that it was an unfair fight on trivial issues, but he’ll have no one to blame but himself. I’m remindedof armies i nthe Crusades; when they lost a battle, it was common to think that the other side had played devillish tricks or that your side was insufficiently faithful. Sometimes, though, it’s just poor tactics: like leading your entire army onto a hot dry plateau with no water nearby in the middle of summer.

Alaska: Reid Wilson of RCP takes a long look at the campaign, explaining why it will be so close of an election in almost every race. Ted Stevens is addressing a joint session of the Alaska legislature tomorrow. A primary opponent of probable Democratic nominee Mark Begich is planning a road show about alleged corruption involving real estate deals and Begich. If it gets any traction, it could eliminate the perceived corruption gap between Begich and Stevens, who has been fighting his own charges which included federal agents raiding his home at one point. Stevens staffed up with an Alaskan political veteran to lead his reelection campaign. Begich praised a plan by Republican Gov. and possible VP Sarah Palin to build a natural gas pipeline in Alaska. Is Begich getting too favorable of coverage? Did Ted Stevens go too far with his statements on race?

Colorado: Mark Udall is getting hit for making a political decision in intervening in Colorado Springs water dispute. Republican Bob Schaffer’s connections to Jack Abramoff (Schaffer took a Marianas Islands trip arranged by Abramoff) are once again mentioned. Moreover, an oil deal that Schaffer himself negotiated with the Kurds has been flagged as holding up national reconciliation in Iraq by the State Department. In positive news in Colorado, Udall is dramatically winning the facebook battle. Schaffer is committed to being on the vanguard of conservative principles. In a year like 2008, is that a curse or a blessing?

New Mexico: Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Tom Udall voted on opposite sides of a House Bill that would have forced oil companies to drill on already allotted ocean land or lose drilling rights. Pearce proposed a bill to sell off some public land in New Mexico and eliminate a large part of wilderness protection; Pearce was chided for supporting the narrow interests of “extreme ranchers,” whoever that may be.

North Carolina: The Raleigh News and Observer finds Kay Hagan’s energy ad against Elizabeth Dole to be “a stretch.” Dole voted for the Medicare bill that passed the Senate yesterday, voting with most Democrats and against Republican NC Senator Richard Burr. Kay Hagan raised 1.6 million in the second quarter, a decent but unremarkable number given the dynamics of the race and that she is far behind in both name recognition and cash on hand, not to mention polling numbers. Dole and others scramble to find money to fix a bridge badly in need of repairs.

New Jersey: New numbers show Frank Lautenberg is pulling away from Dick Zimmer. He felt confident enough to take shots at Joe Lieberman for supporting McCain. The NY Post criticized Lautenberg for not supporting off shore drilling. Zimmer disclosed his mortgage and urged Lautenberg to do the same.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell set a Kentucky fundraising record in the second quarter and has a massive cash on hand advantage over Bruce Lunsford. Lunsford plans to spend a day with the SEIU. Meanwhile, yet another Predator actor is making a run for office.

Oregon: Gordon Smith has good relations with Indian tribes in his state, as nine have endorsed him despite normally being Democratic. Jeff Merkeley is getting slammed for suggesting the Democratic Ads which include footage of him were not intended to support his candidacy. Steve Forrester wonders if Gordon Smith is losing his motivation and his edge recently, citing recent sloppy campaign work that could come back to haunt him.

Louisiana: John N. Kennedy must constantly answer why he is running as a Republican for Senate this cycle after running for the Senate as a Democrat four years ago. He criticized his own decision to endorse John Kerry in 2004, and said he would continue to take PAC money. Mary Landrieu raised 1.5 million in the second quarter, a Louisiana record.

Oklahoma: Andrew Rice continues his low-key campaign in Oklahoma, meeting people at every restaurant he can. That pales in comparison to the effectiveness of the sort of name recognition and cash advantage that James Inhofe will have. The Huffington Post tries to hit Inhofe and praise Rice on telecom immunity; Rice better hope the blurb is worth in fundraising what it will hurt him popularly; I’m willing to wager that Rice won’t exactly put that sort of endorsement on the front of his website.

Idaho: Kevin Richert, like me, wonders how Larry LaRocco can claim victory when a poll shows him 15 points behind. Richert digs deeper into the data and finds that economic issues will probably decide the election, not Iraq, terrorism, or immigration.

Texas: The Texas Medical Association praised Cornyn for changing positions and supporting the Medicare bill yesterday (after previously denouncing him); opponent Rick Noriega tried to hit him for flip-flopping on the issue. Also, the San Antonio Current takes a look at the uphill battle that Noriega has to climb to win in Texas. Speaking to 35 people at a time in a state as big as Texas strikes me as being an inefficient use of time.

Kansas: When you have good name recognition, big lead, and your opponent has spent years as a lobbyist in Washington away from your state, you can afford to go negative in advertising earlier than others would do so, like Pat Roberts just did to Jim Slattery.

Mississippi: Candidates Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker used to be roommates, but now they’re sniping over Medicare. It is very rare for Senate elections to be this competitive in Mississippi.

Maine: An editorial predicts that Susan Collins will beat Tom Allen by 20 points. Some had predicted this race could have a Sheldon Whitehouse - Lincoln Chafee vibe, but that hasn’t materialized at all. Allen might be better off staying in the House.

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Wednesday Senate Roundup

Short introduction: We’re going to try to have these posts up every day or two. I’m relying on Nate Silver’s electoral projections to determine which get coverage. We’re not normally going to cover races where he projects a party as having a 95% chance or better of retaining its seat. That is a completely arbitrary choice on my behalf. My goal is to highlight anecdotes and happenings that normally would fall through the cracks.

NRSC head John Ensign wants to limit Senate losses to four. That’s overwhelmingly probable; right now the polling indicates that the Democrats will pick up New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado; most other competitive states are leaning Republican right now (all of which were previously held by Republicans). The closest bubble state is actually in Alaska. Silver projects Anchorage mayor Mark Begich as having a slim lead over Ted Stevens right now, but that is obviously very precarious. It is possible, though not probable, that Democrats could gain as many as seven seats in the Senate, as Charlie Cook says. Moreover, the Obama effort at voter mobilization, even in states he is likely to lose, is probably going to come in useful.

Virginia: Jim Gilmore is still the worst candidate this cycle. When conservatives argue that there are Americans willing to do the jobs that illegal immigrants do, I did not take it to mean that said Americans were Senate candidates.

Kentucky: Memo to Bruce Lunsford: Letting Jim Gilmore steal your thunder is never a good idea. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell is insulted that anyone thinks the race even might be close. Lunsford took advantage of the repeal of the Millionaire’s Amendment by SCOTUS to donate an even one million to his campaign. He’s got a long, long road to go, though.

New Hampshire: The Nashua Telegraph listed lobbyists that represented 2008 earmark recipients and donated to the NH delegation, including John Sununu. Sununu defended the donations, stating, “It’s not where it needs to be, but people have begun to focus on fixing the problems. … People understand it needs to be transparent, and (understand) the need to look at additional checks and reforms.” The Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire endorsed Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen is pushing Sununu on science, even going to laboratories to underline the point.

Kansas: The Kansas City Star points out that a race between a longtime Senator in Pat Roberts and a Washington lobbyist in Jim Slattery is not that exciting in a change election. Roberts has close ties to Bush, but Slattery has not lived in Kansas for 14 years and has lobbied in the meantime. Slattery also wants to make Robert’s record as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee a campaign issue. Roberts has a big cash and ad advantage over Slattery.

Minnesota: Jesse Ventura is in the race! Or he isn’t. Or who knows. Meanwhile, more bad news for Al Franken: his PAC filed a campaign finance report late last year and had to pay a fine. This follows similar administrative kerfuffles with not paying taxes and a workers comp fine. This is why it is important for candidates to run for lower office first: it serves as effective vetting. Keep this in mind when considering VP possibilities for Obama and McCain. The administrative faults and satirist history of Franken have made what otherwise would be a probably Democratic pickup into a safe Republican seat, as this Star Tribune editorial indicates. Franken is also getting hit for his support of the Free Choice Act, which is being pushed by unions. In something the Coleman campaign must be laughing themselves to death over, Franken had to apologize for belittling Coleman’s accomplishments as Senator.

Colorado: Bloomberg looks at cousins Mark Udall and Tom Udall, Democratic Senate candidates from Colorado and New Mexico, respectively; Oregon Republican Senator Gordon Smith is their second cousin. Mark Udall talks about land use in the article: “Some of the traditional uses of our public lands are being pushed off; hunting, fishing, climbing, skiing, those are all important to us as Westerners.” Republicans are going to push both Udalls on environmentalism. It’s a good look at the relationship between the two of them. Udall is pushing for more money for firing ranges, something most coastal Democrats would never do. Udall wants to delay the Southern Delivery System (a water pipeline for Colorado Springs), which has upset a lot of people in Colorado. The Colorado Springs Gazette is not convinced by either Udall or Bob Schaffer running as a centrist, and looks to their records for proof. Bob Schaffer denied securing an earmark that was tied to fraud.

New Mexico: Tom Udall touted his raising 2.1 million the last three months. Steve Pearce has not said much, and it is not surprising, given that he is a massive underdog at the moment.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole asked President Bush to declare the Lophelia Banks, a chain of coral formations off the Atlantic coast, a marine national monument. Democratic candidate Kay Hagen responded by attacking Dole for calling for more oil exploration at the same time. An editorial in the Greensboro News and Record explains that the DOE would have the ability to veto any drill sites, so there is no conflict of Dole’s position. The Raleigh News and Observer looks at Dole’s policies on Energy:

Dole has co-sponsored a Democratic bill to extend tax credits for clean energy.

She opposed the Consumer-First Energy Act to tax oil companies’ profits and allow for investigations of OPEC conspiracies to fix oil prices. But she said she would support a bill that repeals tax credits for the industry that were given back in 2004 and 2005.

She opposes coal-to-liquid technology because of concern for the environment and until two weeks ago was against offshore drilling. She now says she would support giving states the right to open their coastlines to drilling.

Last week, she co-sponsored Senate Bill 3202, major Republican bill, to search for more oil in Western states’ shale deposits and off the nation’s coastline, including North Carolina.

She says she supports stopping the storage of oil in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to put it into the supply chain.

New Jersey: New Jersey is last in the United States in money spent per federal tax dollar. Republican candidate Dick Zimmer hit him for it. Former Hillary Clinton finance director Samantha Maltzman is now working for Lautenberg.

Oregon: Republican Senator Gordon Smith accused Merkeley of breaking election law.The details:

Two television ads paid for and distributed by the Democratic Party of Oregon in the past week prominently feature Merkley. While neither ad says anything about his candidacy, and while the Merkley campaign claims that the ads were not created to support his candidacy, Smith’s campaign believes it is a blatant move to try to use extra funding from the party for more summer television advertising.
…
According to the Smith campaign, the Merkley campaign has violated the FEC rules that state a candidate running for U.S Senate in Oregon is not allowed to receive more than $485,200 from the candidate’s state or national party. Merkley had already received $386,088 from the Democratic Party before the ads were released. If the FEC rules that the $440,000 that the Oregon Democratic Party spent on the ads featuring Merkley went toward promoting Merkley as a candidate, he will be in violation of those campaign finance laws.

A day on the road with Merkley and his Toyota Prius. Merkley has changed his position on gay marriage. Meanwhile Smith has moved left enough that many conservatives are not going to support him this election.

Louisiana: John N. Kennedy is spending the week on a bus tour in Lousiana, and is pushing for debates.

Oklahoma: The Democratic candidate against Republican Senator James Inhofe will be determined by a July 29 vote. Probable candidate Andrew Rice sat down for a long interview with the Ada Evening News. James Inhofe praised the energy plan of T. Boone Pickens.

Idaho: The first sign of a campaign heading in the wrong direction is having to release an internal campaign poll to dispell rumors. So, congratulations Democrat Larry LaRocco on releasing your internal poll numbers. I’m not sure how touting being “only” 15 points behind is much of an accomplishment in a split field. Conservative Rex Rammell might take some votes from Republican Jim Risch, but it seems unlikely to be enough to swing the election, despite Rammel’s daughter going as far as to call Risch “a weasel.”  A LaRocco staffer discusses what it is like to work on the campaign. Unlike Lansford and Gilmore, LaRocco spent the day campaigning by working in a mattress factory.

Texas: Democratic Candidate Rick Noriega hit Republican Sen. ‘Big’ John Cornyn on reducing physicians fees from Medicare treatment. In the final vote today, Cornyn flipped his position and voted for the bill. Noriega has previously criticized Cornyn for flipping his position on the new GI Bill. Noriega is still a longshot, but these criticisms strike me more as baseless. A better example of Noriega’s problems is that he raised $930,000 in the second quarter; Cornyn already had 9 million in the bank before that quarter. By contrast, Tom Udall of the far less populous and wealthy New Mexico raised more than twice that much. I’m very doubtful that Noriega’s low key campaigning style can achieve an upset of the magnitude that Noriega will need.

Mississippi: Republican Sen. Roger Wicker criticized the Medicare Bill that passed the Senate today; he did vote against it. Wicker and former Dem. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove are interviewed about the election, and both try to claim the bipartisan ground, while Musgrove touts his fiscal and social conservatism. Musgrove had also previously hailed the Heller decision on the Second Amendment.

Maine: Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins is an ally of Joe Lieberman; Democratic challenger Tom Allen is an ally of Ned Lamont. And while Daily Kos commissions polls reliving the 2006 election, Collins is pulling away in Maine, ahead a whopping 25 points in a blue state.Meanwhile, former Dennis Kucinich operative Hubert Huffman is running as an indepedent, and will probably draw votes away from Allen. Thus, the Maine Democrats are taking Hoffman to court.

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Surprising Alaska Senate Poll Numbers

A lot of people thought Sen. Ted Stevens would be vulnerable in this election, both because of corruption charges and a sharp spike in his craziness in recent years. Still, seeing a new poll having Anchorage mayor Mark Begich beating Stevens by 7 points (51-44) is pretty shocking.

Given that Democrats are also favored in the House race, this should also be seen as a positive sign for Barrack Obama, and perhaps a sign that McCain and Governor Sarah Palin have work to do.

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Jim Gilmore: Not a Better Senate Candidate Than Presidential One

Mark Warner has raised more than 9 times as much as Jim Gilmore so far in the Virginia Senate race and has more than 21 times what Gilmore has in the bank:

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gimore (R), who is seeking the Senate seat of the retiring Sen. John Warner (R), is being crushed by his Democratic opponent, and former Virginia governor Mark Warner, on the fundraising front. This according to the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Gilmore reported raising just $402,000 in the first quarter, according to his first quarter 2008 giling with the FEC, bringing his total raised to just over $753,000 since he jumped into the campaign last November. Gilmore has $208,000 in cash-on-hand.

Mark Warner, on the other hand raised $2.52 million in the first quarter, according to his FEC reports. The Warner for Senate committee reported cash-on-hand of $4.38 million. Warner has raised more than $6.3 million overall since entering the race.

We’ll be looking more at Senate races this summer once the primaries are over, but this underscores the race in Virginia, which will be a crucial swing state likely this fall in the Presidential race. (I’m not optimistic about Gilmore Republicans).

With both Jim Webb and Mark Warner rumored as VP candidates as well, this race will be something to watch.

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