Poll Vaulting: McCain, Clinton Lead in Iowa; Romney Gains, Obama and Fred Thompson Fall

The American Research Group has released two new polls from Iowa for both Republicans and Democrats. I’m going to compare those results with the results form the May 2007 poll conducted by the Des Moines Register.

Starting with the Democrats:

Candidate	ARG May 07	DMR May 07	ARG April 07	ARG March 07
Hillary Clinton	31 %	21 %	23 %	34 %
John Edwards	25 %	29 %	27 %	33 %
Barack Obama	11 %	23 %	19 %	16 %
Bill Richardson	8 %	10 %	5 %	1 %
Dennis Kucinich	4 %	2 %	2 %	1 %
Joe Biden	3 %	3 %	6 %	2 %
Chris Dodd	2 %	–	2 %	1 %
Wesley Clark	1 %	N/I	–	2 %
Mike Gravel	1 %	1 %	–	–
Undecided	14 %	11 %	16 %	10 %

A few interesting things that stand out. First is Barack Obama’s precipitous fall in the ARG poll. The margin of error is 4%, which could put him even behind Richardson. His campaign might have to ask if he is spending enough time there, getting to know enough insiders to get a caucus victory. John Edwards is trending the wrong way in Iowa (even after the withdrawal of Tom Vilsack, which Edwards had obviously hoped to use as a boost), but Edwards still remains a clear number two overall in recent polls. The Des Moines Register poll gives Clinton something to worry about, but she’s still ahead. Richardson clearly is breaking from the second tier twoards the first tier. Whether he has enough gas in the tank to get to the top tier is still a question that needs to be answered. The lower tier really is not doing anything that notable.

I’m interested in the ARG poll though - every month they seem to have one candidate really fall in the polls, only to rebound the next month. In April it was Clinton. In May it is Obama - there hasn’t been any type of indication that Obama’s support is this low. So until there is some confirmation of that, take it with a grain of salt.

Now, the Republicans:

Candidate	ARG May 07	DMR May 07	ARG April 07	ARG March 07
John McCain	25 %	18 %	26 %	29 %
Rudy Giuliani	23 %	17 %	19 %	29 %
Mitt Romney	16 %	30 %	14 %	10 %
Newt Gingrich	8 %	N/I	8 %	7 %
Fred Thompson	6 %	N/I	13 %	12 %
Sam Brownback	3 %	5 %	1 %	–
Tom Tancredo	2 %	4 %	2 %	1 %
Chuck Hagel	2 %	N/I	1 %	1 %
Tommy Thompson	2 %	7 %	1 %	1 %
Jim Gilmore	1 %	1 %	1 %	–
Duncan Hunter	–	1 %	–	–
John Cox	N/I	1 %	N/I	N/I
Ron Paul	–	–	–	–
Undecided	10 %	12 %	12 %	11 %

Looking at the Republican results, one thing that jumps out is Fred Thompson starting to drop before he even gets into the race. But like Obama above, it’s hard to judge the validity of these results without independent confirmation; and the Des Moines Register poll did not include potential candidates like Thompson or Gingrich.

Among the top group, it’s clear that Mitt Romney is the one with all the momentum. Giuliani seems to have weathered the storm, as he is no longer bottoming out, but he’s not even where he was a mere few months before. Romney, on the other hand, keeps trending up. The30% of the Des Moines poll is not repeated once Thompson and Gingrich are included, but he’s still growing. John McCain seems to be losing a little ground, but retaining most of his supporters in the state that he skipped in 1999.

On the lower tier, the hope for the lower tier that the Des Moines poll gave - bumps for Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo - seems to be erased in the ARG poll. I have to wonder if the now imminent entry of Fred Thompson into the race spells the end for this lower tier. Not only do they have to distinguish themselves from the top tier, they also have to distinguish themselves from each other. I imagine that the Republican debate on Tuesday will be a key last time for that to happen; if not, it will certainly be the Iowa Straw Poll in August.

There’s reasons to take these polls with grains of salt - for instance there’s reasons to both include and exclude declared candidates like Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich - but it’s worth keeping in mind exactly who these polls include while considering what they mean. For instance, Al Gore was not included in any of the Iowa polls.

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Poll Vaulting: Iowans Call For Al Gore And Condoleezza Rice

An interesting new poll from The DesMoines Register gives high marks amongst likely Democratic primary voters to Al Gore and high marks amongst likely Republican primary voters to Condi Rice, Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson…

Usually, I don’t find polls particularly meaningful, but they can be interesting or entertaining; this poll is both. The one take away from this poll is that yet again it appears as though Republicans are significantly less satisfied with their choices than the Democrats are. Enjoy!

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The Nail in The Coffin: Irregularities in 04 Clark Donations

Wesley Clark’s 2004 campaign today was charged with irregularities in its appropriation and acquiring of funds. Clark reimbursed a contributor $9,315 for two airplane flights; the FEC thought this was too little. Also, there was excess donations totalling $247,911 from donors (an unspecificed amount) who had already donated the maximum.

Clark is not contesting these, and the amount is dwarfed by the Kucinich irregularities (though it is more that the amount Kucinich had to pay; Kucinich still has unresolved irregularities where the FEC can’t prove anything wrong.). Still, this seems to be the nail in the coffin that Clark is not running. I could potentially be wrong, but his playing coy game seems mainly as a way to stay relevant and in the race for VP or cabinet spots, not as a means of being a competitor at all.

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Sunday Night Democratic Roundup

Barack Obama

On Monday, Obama will be in Tulsa for a fundraiser and Oklahoma City for a rally. A recent Oklahoma poll had Obama running third in the state behind Clinton and Edwards.

Obama spoke for forty minutes in front of ten thousand people at a rally in Oakland. He specifically brought up again his stance against the war from the start.

Obama will be on with a recovering Larry King tomorrow night at 9 pm. and to think, we were a heartbeat away from Ryan Seacrest or Nancy Grace interviewing Obama.

Obama was in Denver today for a rally and a fundraiser.

Obama spoke Friday at the site of a handshake between Pres. Clinton and Rep. Gingrich when they promised to create a bipartisan commission on campaign finance that never happened. Obama said in a potentially loaded statement that “I know this is a pretty famous spot. … I think it’s wonderful this place has that history.” He also reiterated his call for Alberto Gonzalez to resign, noting he voted against confirming him. The event was markedly smaller than his previous stops, and begins the test of whether Obama can survive as a candidate when he talks to small groups, not just at rallies.

Bill Richardson

Richardson wore cowboy boots as he attended a fundraiser in Oklahoma City, and as the state has its primary on the suddenly crowded Feb. 5 date, it’s become important. When local Spanish language reporters asked questions, Richardson responded in the same language. He also announced the director of his state campaign.

Richardson is calling a special session of the New Mexico legislature, the main reason of which he states is to pass the rest of his package of reform bills, including campaign finance legislation that would mirror federal statutes, and an initiative to create a New Mexico Ethics Commission. Transportation and otherinitiatives also remain to be completed.

Before the session ended, Richardson signed a bill that provided funding for upgrading some of the the transportation infrastructure in the state. He also signed a bill raising the minimum wage in the state from $5.15 to $7.50, calling it the “crown jewel” of the session. Some small business owners disagreed. Richardson also signed a bill that requires oil and gas companies to give notice before they drill on private property.

Richardson will be speaking at the National Jewish Democratic Council on April 24 in Washington DC.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd spent the weekend in New Hampshire, campaigning through the snow. He spoke at the Manchester City Democratic Committee’ Saint Patrick’s Day breakfast, and attended other events in Manchester, Hampton, and Concord.

Dodd talked about gays in the military in Hampton, saying about ‘Don’t Ask Don’t Tell’ the following: “Whether or not we can repeal it or not I don’t know, but it seems to me that at a time when we need talented people to serve in our military, setting up barriers like that for those who might serve I think is wrong.” Regarding Gen. Peter Pace, he called the statement that homosexuality is immoral “a ridiculous statement to make.” It’s not clear what context Dodd was referring to the statement being ridiculous.

Dodd spoke as the keynote speaker of the annual conference of the United States Hispanic Leadership Institute in Chicago this weekend.

Regarding Alberto Gonzalez and the firing of US Attorneys, he did not call for Gonzalez to resign, but wanted a full investigation first, saying “I’m deeply concerned about it. I thought there were certain areas that were out of bounds in politics. … Apparently this administration thinks there’s nothing out of bounds, including politicizing the U.S. atttorney’s office. I don’t know how high that goes up.”

Dodd’s hearings on subprime lenders start this week. Dodd is concerned about the increasing number of foreclosures in the country, saying, “The primary group I want to hear from are the federal regulators who have responsibility and jurisdiction over these issues. … I want to keep people in their homes, but I don’t know how to do that yet.” The best explanation for what Dodd is trying to stop was given by Dodd himself: “The complaint is with these predatory lenders who go out and take advantage of people and get them mortgages they can’t afford to keep. So they get you into a house but you can’t stay in the house.”

Dodd spoke in the Senate this week on Iraq.

Dodd endorsed the climate change resolution being debated in New Hampshire town hall meetings, which calls for the president to initiate policy change.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich was back in his hometown of Cleveland for the St. Patrick’s Day events there.

A restaurant named a soy yogurt parfait in Kucinich’s honor in Washington.

Kucinich made a controversial hire of someone who had severely criticized Israel in the past for his Domestic Policy Subcomittee, but he defended the action.

Elizabeth Kucinich participated in the Democrats Abroad meeting in Heidelberg, Germany this weekend. While in Germany, she also toured the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, visiting injured US troops, saying “We are sacrificing our nation’s future to pay for war, we are leaving young lives irreversibly broken. … Our young men and women - and the Iraqi people as well - deserve better. There has to be a more creative way, a diplomatic way, to resolve these conflicts.” She has a long history of working abroad herself, as the release notes. She and Rep. Kucinich will attend meetings in London and Paris early this week concerned with ending the war. I’m not quite sure what the point of the meetings could be, but it can’t hurt that Kucinich wants to run as far away as possible from his campaign troubles at home.

Kucinich is happy that California is moving its primary up to Feb. 5. He’s visiting the state twice more in March, and multiple other times in the months ahead. The state is where Kucinich probably has his largest base of support, in areas like Santa Cruz.

Kucinich went on Fox and spoke with John Gibson about the Democrats cancellation of the Nevada debate and why Kucinich disagreed with the decision.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton is running a thorough campaign; not onlyi sshe working on getting Hollywood to support her, she’s also working on getting Bollywood’s backing. Indian-American hotelier Sant Chatwal is a co-chair on the campaign and is hosting a fundraiser this weekend; he’s also giving Clinton use of his private jet.

Clinton was joined by her husband in a fundraiser in Manhattan today.

Clinton will be attending a fundraiser for Rep. Leonard Boswell (Iowa) April 21 in Des Moines.

Sen. Clinton dined with Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame, raising eyebrows on the right.

An anti-Clinton ad modeled after the 1984 Apple ad is making rounds online. Interestingly, now on the board of trustees for Apple? Al Gore.

Clinton did Texas this weekend, stopping in Austin friday night, where she was picketed by Republicans. In Houston, she talked about Katrina and leading a more competant government. She also cautioned that troop withdrawals could not happen overnight.

Ron Burkle, a close friend of the Clintons and a main fundraiser, was interviewed by Deborah Solomon of the NYT. His reaction to Geffen’s comments -”taken aback”- is probably close to the reaction of the Clintons themselves.

Clinton wants to restore the amount of funding to the community policing program COPS that it had while her husband was President; Biden had previously stated something to this extent.

Some Belfast politicians went on the offensive against Clinton for ‘pandering to Sinn Fein.’ I think it’s somewhat interesting, more in that American politics have gone overseas than in terms of any potential effect here.

Trump endorsed Clinton for the Democratic nomination, and Giuliani for the Republican. He wouldn’t make a choice when asked to decide between the two. I wonder if more people care about celebrity endorsements or political ones.

A long interview with Clinton by Michael Gordon and Patrick Healy was done by the NYT; here is the transcript. Clinton elaborates a lot on what she would do regarding Iraq. That will have its own post shortly.

Joe Biden

Biden finally a successful week as a candidate. His speech on the Senate floor about Iraq was well received; it was blunt, forceful, and concise, strongly arguing for his bill on Iraq. This very optimistic article recounts how Biden has been gathering strength in the primary states to move from Secretary of State possibility in a Democratic Administration to a possible dark horse. I’m not sure he’s gone to legitimate dark horse yet, but however you look at it, his strength of support is surprising for someone whose whole campaign looked DOA a week ago.

This is the video of Biden’s speech on the Senate floor:

This is the video of Biden’s speech to the IAFF:

Biden was the guest speaker at the St. Patrick’s Day breakfast / roast in Boston. Speaking about McCain, he cracked, “I’m younger than McCain. Then again, the whole friggin’ world is younger than McCain.” And he also joked: “I was talking to John Kerry before I came up. John Kerry assures me he was for this breakfast before he was against it.”

Biden cancelled some planned events in New Hampshire due to the snow, when he couldn’t fly in.

Biden is pushing Kazakshtan to transition to a liberal and open democracy quicker, and is threatening to hold back their chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Here is text of Biden’s letter.

John Edwards

Edwards thinks a global education initiative to educate children could offset terrorism in the long run, saying “I believe by making education available to 100 million children growing up in parts of the world that are highly susceptible to extreme ideology, and in some cases extremely violent ideology, we can shift that.” Interesting thought; the article does not mention how he would work on making that a reality (funding, logistics, etc.).

Edwards’ campaign will be purchasing carbon credits from people who have reduced their carbon emissions in an effort to become carbon neutral. (They will also be working on their own energy efficiency) They are working with the same company that Tom Vilsack had previously announced he would work with on a similar initiative. Edwards stated in a shot at Bush: “It’s time for the president of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war. … This is an emergency. This requires action now.” I have to wonder how significant the Vilsack connection is; a Vilsack endorsement would really help Edwards in Iowa, the crucial state for him, permanently placing him in the top tier there, and possibly ahead of Obama and maybe even Clinton.

An article about the detailed progress Edwards has made in the past four years and how it affects his stump speeches; for instance, he’s much more sharp on foreign affairs, and how he balances truth with optimism. While his specificity may be a curiousity to those following the race fro afar, it’s refreshing those in Iowa who listen to him.

Edwards is getting good grassroots support for his appeal in the South, even when he campaigns in Malibu. I’m not sure, though, if comparing his campaign to Jimmy Carter’s campaign is a complement or an insult. On the topic of California, Edwards expressed his support for the move of the primary to February 5.

Thirty members of the Oklahoma legislature endorsed Edwards.

The Edwards office was closed on Wednesday afternoon in an anthrax scare. Later, it was found that the white powder was not Anthrax. If you wondered as I did, Edwards and his campaign are not receiving any special protection from local authorities or the Secret Service).

Mike Gravel

BlogTalkRadio has a 30 minute interview with Gravel from February 16.

Gravel will be the featured speaker at a Small Busniess Roundtable sponsored by the American Small Business Coalition at the upcoming Federal Office Systems Expo (FOSE) that is expecting an overall turnout of 15,000. Gravel will be discussing “regulatory reform, healthcare, and procurement.”

CNN, WMUR-TV in Manchester, and the Manchester Union Leader have decided to not include Mike Gravel in the debates they are sponsoring in New Hampshire in June. Gravel released a video on Youtube strongly criticizing the decision, saying, “In short, this action is an insidious form of censorship that injures the American people and its political process, already compromised by the corrupting and excessive influence of money, while seriously eroding the concept of fairness so central to the American ethos and culture.” Read more of what Gravel said here.

Wesley Clark

Clark delivered a speech yesterday entitled ‘The Front Lines of International Economics’ at the Diplomatic Club in Qatar. It was sponsored by The Department of the Faculty of the Georgetown University School of Foreign service in Qatar.

Clark seems to be dedicating his energy to his PAC and his new StopIranWar.com site. Given his lack of announcements or any initiative (and that he’s speaking in Qatar), it’s timeto move him to the Graveyard. At this point, any campaign would be coming back from the dead.

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Tid Bits

What circumstances would create an 80% chance of New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg joing the race?  If each party nominated “extreme” candidates like Edwards and Romney.  [Former Bloomberg advisor's words, not mine. I happen to disagree with her examples.]…

Can Rev. Al Sharpton affect Obama’s support amongst black voters?  He had the following things to say today about Obama [video]…

“Why shouldn’t the black community ask questions? Are we now being told, ‘You all just shut up?’  Senator Obama and I agree that the war is wrong, but then I want to know why he went to Connecticut and helped [Sen. Joseph] Lieberman, the biggest supporter of the war.”

Sharpton is angry because he believes that it was Obama’s campaign that started the rumors that he is jealous of Sen. Obama’s success as a candidate in order to pressure him into endorsing Obama now.  Perhaps this could evolve into something more scandolous over time…

Wondering what’s up with George Pataki?  Well Pataki and senior aide John Cahill joined the law firm Chadbourne & Parke LLP as Counsel, who will focus on energy, environmental and corporate matters….

Learn about Ron Paul….

Wesley Clark thinks another run for president “everyday” …

Quick look at the candidates’ positions on abortion, same-sex marriage, global warming, health care, immigration, iran, iraq and stem cell research…

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Poll Vaulting: Clinton, Giuliani Lead in Nevada

According to a poll by Research 2000 (whose website appears not to be updated since December), Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton lead in Nevada right now.

Republican Results:

Giuliani	38%
McCain	18%
Gingrich	13%
Romney	4%

Democratic Results:

Clinton	32%
Obama	20%
Gore	11%
Edwards	11%
Richardson	2%
Clark	2%

No other candidates are listed in the results, and I have no yet located the full results on the Reno Gazette Journals’ website. (The difference between ‘other’ and ‘undecided’ in this instance would be pretty significant). I did locate the details of the poll:

The poll consisted of 240 Democrats, 246 Republicans and 114 independents. Of those surveyed, 306 were women and 294 men.

If full results are located this post will be updated immediately.

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Poll Vaulting: Clinton Beats Obama By One Vote in St. Paul Straw Poll

The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) had its straw poll yesterday following their caucus.

Results:

Clinton	324	25%
Obama	323	25%
Edwards	176	13.6%
Richardson	115	8.9%
Kucinich	77	6.0%
Gore (write-ins)	31	2.4%
Clark	17	1.3%
Biden	13	1%
Dodd	6	0.4%
Vilsack	4	0.3%
Gravel	0	0%
Undecided	207	16%

Poor Mike Gravel….

This is not a scientific poll, more something just to file away; although it is the first evidence that Richardson may be on the verge of breaking out.

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Candidate Iraq Positions

The NYT ran a useful candidate position chart on Iraq, detailing with quotes the past and current positions of all major declared candidates (except Jim Gilmore and Ron Paul) on Iraq. For undeclared candidates, it includes Chuck Hagel but not Newt Gingrich. Recommended reading for sure.

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Monday Morning Democratic Roundup

Barack Obama

TheStreet.com examines Barack Obama’s stock portfolio. He mostly has money in mutual funds, but also invested in 2005 in two companies who have received money from the federal government. This is very common in Congress, but the small size of the two companies and their federal funding raises questions; Obama’s spokesman says that they were recommended by his broker. He sold his shares and ended up losing money on his stock deals. … Obama spoke to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on Friday. Regarding the effects of the Iraq war, Obama stated, “One of the most profound consequences of the administration’s failed strategy in Iraq has been to strengthen Iran’s strategic position; reduce U.S. credibility and influence in the region; and place Israel and other nations friendly to the United States in greater peril.” Here is the full advance transcript. Regarding the future of foreign policy in the Middle East, Obama stated, “As the U.S. redeploys from Iraq, we can recapture lost influence in the Middle East. We can refocus our efforts to critical, yet neglected priorities, such as combating international terrorism and winning the war in Afghanistan. And we can, then, more effectively deal with one of the greatest threats to the United States, Israel and world peace: Iran. Iran’s President Ahmadinejad’s regime is a threat to all of us. His words contain a chilling echo of some of the world’s most tragic history.” He also criticized the united government coalition of Hamas and Fatah, saying “We should all be concerned about the agreement negotiated among Palestinians in Mecca last month. The reports of this agreement suggest that Hamas, Fatah, and independent ministers would sit in a government together, under a Hamas Prime Minister, without any recognition of Israel, without a renunciation of violence, and with only an ambiguous promise to “respect” previous agreements. This should concern us all because it suggests that Mahmoud Abbas, who is a Palestinian leader I believe is committed to peace, felt forced to compromise with Hamas. However, if we are serious about the Quartet’s conditions, we must tell the Palestinians this is not good enough.” The speech on the whole laid out a moderate view of the future of foreign policy the Middle East that will temper the calls of Obama’s plan for withdrawniig from Iraq as being far leftist. In fact, it was so moderate that some pro-Palestine supporters were disappointed. … Another former Clinton supporter endorsed Obama; interestingly, they met at the home of Vernon Jordan.

Bill Richardson

Richardson said that primaries in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada will decide who the nominee is. …Richardson was the first candidate to accept an invitation to debate on an Indian reservation in August. … Richardson is a pro tax cut Democrat, and said he would only repeal some of Bush’s tax cuts, not all of them. … A Republican take on Richardson the potential president. … Richardson might be perfectly positioned to become the breakout candidate eventually, both on positions and personality.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd held a fundraiser at the Madison hotel this past Wednesday. … Dodd talked health care and Iraq in New Hampshire. Video at the same link … Dodd is enlisting state legislators of states holding early primaries to back his initiative to require additional Congression authorization for the war in Iraq. It’s not clear yet what Dodd plans to do with this support. …

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich had a busy weekend campaigning in New Hampshire on Saturday (in the footsteps of JFK) and New Jersey on Sunday. … Kucinich is not just reaching out to college campuses; he is also reaching out to high schools and junior high schools. There’s about 8,000 potential punchlines here. … In New Hampshire, Kucinich talked about his plan for withdrawing from Iraq, and his plan for health care (single-payer system). He also criticized opponents for supporting the health insurers and for voting for the war initially. … In fact, his talk in Concord ran late and he arrived at the Laconia World Championship Sled Dog Derby when most of the crowd had left. He planned on showing up early on Sunday before he went to New Jersey. … Kucinich appeared at a dinner in New Jersey where openly gay mayor of Longhill NJ Gina Genovese announced she would challenge State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. in the next election. Kucinich is quoted as saying that gay rights are “an imperative of this moment.” … The Dept. of Peace is evolving to the point where it can survive beyond Kucinich talking it up. … Kucinich wants to raise $50 million this year.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton flew to Iowa after marching in Alabama on Sunday. She is meeting today with Democratic state lawmakers. She spoke at the University of Dubuque last night. Aside from the meeting with lawmakers, she’ll be campaigning in Des Moines today. … Earlier this weekend in Los Angeles she called for more government action on climate change. …

Joe Biden

Biden was in South Carolina yesterday and campaigns there again today. He talked up his plan on Iraq, and not putting soldiers in the middle of a civil war. … Biden is still talking about his Obama comments on the trail.

John Edwards

Here is what conservative bloggers had to say on the Ann Coulter comment fracas. The attempt to link her comments with those of bloggers made before they were hired by Edwards on a private blog is tenuous at best, and frankly feels forced. Engaging the Edwards campaign directly on the issues is the best way to deal to handle it; I’m not a big fan at all of the cheap tactics (of either side) of dragging candidates down by these other methods. It’s unfair to the voters who have taken the time out to actually listen to what candidates have to say. … Edwards said that he is against electronic voting machines that do not leave a paper record. … Edwards has a rally at UCLA scheduled for today. .. Coulter responded to Edwards’ retort to her comment. I’m only mentioning this because it’ll be the last time I blog about it unless something unforeseen occurs.

Mike Gravel

Here is a free mp3 file of Gravel’s speech to the DNC Committe from early February. Calling out the candidates on Iraq, he stated, “Given the extreme importance of any decision to go to war,” he continued, “and I am anguished to make this statement, that anyone who voted for the war on October 11th based upon what president Bush presented to them is not qualified to hold the office of the president of the United States.”

Wesley Clark

Clark spoke in New Hampshire, and is still playing coy, perhaps in an attempt to drum up anticipation.

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Candidate Schedules

2008 Central is happy to announce that our candidate schedules section is now operational.  Aside from accessing these schedules at the candidates’ respective page on this site, you can also access the schedules by using the navigation menu in the sidebar.

Democrats

• Barack Obama
• Bill Richardson
• Christopher Dodd
• Dennis Kucinich
• Hillary Clinton
• Joe Biden
• John Edwards
• Mike Gravel
• Wesley Clark

Republicans

• Chuck Hagel
• Duncan Hunter
• Jim Gilmore
• John McCain
• Mike Huckabee
• Mitt Romney
• Newt Gingrich
• Ron Paul
• Rudy Guiliani
• Sam Brownback
• Tom Tancredo
• Tommy Thompson

[N.B. Although the schedules may seem a bit sparse right now, we assure you that significant effort is being made to consolidate all scheduling information so that we can offer the most comprehensive candidate schedules on the net]

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Friday Morning Democratic Roundup

Barack Obama

Michelle Obama briefly explains how she turned from a political cynic to a supporter of her husband’s run for office. … Obama is trying to make sure more anti-terrorism money goes to high-risk areas instead of being more strictly assigned to states equally … Another recap of Obama’s appearance in Cleveland earlier this week. …

Bill Richardson

Bill Richardson is having problems generating buzz outside the southwest, sometimes for obvious reasons, other times for hidden ones. For instance, his goal of getting a space port in New Mexico is quite unpopular in Florida. The article also points out the colors of his website, but more correctly (and importantly) notices the lack of interactivity. … Richardson is in Iowa today, lunching at the Latin Kings Restaurant in Des Moines, and later going to Indianola, before going to events tomorrow in Des Moines. … The New Mexico Senate is debating a minimum wage increase that Gov. Richardson is supporting. … Richardson continues to get accolades for his credentials, which have yet to turn into tangible results for him. In this article, on free trade, Richardson states, “I’m a free trader. But I think free-trade agreements have to have stronger enforcements in three areas: wage disparity, worker protection and environmental protection.” On immigration: “The border fence is a terrible symbol of division. … What is needed is a sensible path to legalization for the 12 million undocumented workers in America, plus realistic security measures like doubling Border Patrol agents on the border, and more detection technology.” He also called for the United States to offer more Third World debt relief, join the Kyoto Protocol on global warming and adhere to the International Criminal Court. On Cuba: “There has to be reciprocal action by the Cuban government. … Raúl Castro has been making noises about improving the relationship. The first thing he should do is release political prisoners. If he does that, you enter into a negotiation.” … Richardson is displeased that New Mexico politicians may not be required to submit a record of their finances anymore. … Another article on Richardson’s positions. On Immigration: “So I am calling on the Democratic Congress to act swiftly to work with the President and solve this problem (of 11 million illegal immigrants). And it can be solved by taking four realistic steps — securing the border, increasing legal immigration, preventing employers from hiring illegal workers, and providing a path to legalization for most of the 11 million illegal immigrants already here.” Richardson is also criticized in the article for advocating positions only when they are popular. … Richrdson joined with governors of California, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona to form a pact for reducing carbon emissions.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd hasn’t issued a press release on his site in over a month, the latest ‘Dodd news’ article is from October 2006, and everything in the news is about something his presience in the Senate or a mention of him in the campaign. The ‘Press Clips’ section is hidden at the bottom and is essentially a duplicate of his press releases of his Senate office, just less detailed, if that’s even possible. Memo to Dodd’s campaign: if you’re serious about this, update your site, because no media sources are going to do the work for you. If you’re not serious, just get out now.

Dennis Kucinich

Time briefly profiles Kucinich here, and how he is basically being ignored by his party. He says he is not a joke: “When people see what I have to say, they go, ‘Hey, wait. He’s right about the war. Ha-ha. He’s right about health care. Ha-ha.’” Newsweek did an interview with Kucinich, and aside from him dropping the fact that he was a third string quarterback on his high school football team (say WHAT?), he seems to be basing his entire campaign on never being wrong politically. He reiterates his positions on Iraq and health care, but doesn’t say anything else other than ‘I told you so’ for five pages. He doesn’t seem to be courting people as much as convincing people that they should agree with his pre-determined positions. It’s a somewhat bizarre strategy (telling voters your views are important, not theirs), and probably a reason why he’ll always get the support he does. …

Hillary Clinton

I’m leading with this because it really just made my morning. Timbaland is hosting a fundraiser for Hillary Clinton in Miami on March 31 (last day of the first quarter for fundraising). Not only that, but Bill Clinton will be attending the sioree as well. … Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were scheduled to appear in the same town of Selma, Alabama this weekend. In order to prevent being overshadowed (which would be especially disastrous Clinton’s claim of inevitability), Clinton is bringing out the big gun: Bill Clinton will be joining the campaign for their first joint appearance. Both Clintons and Obama will join in a symbolic march across the Edmund Pettus bridge in Selma, the site where civil rights workers were beaten by state troopers in 1965. Suffice to say that the three will probably not be walking side by side like a montage from Law and Order. Also while there former President Clinton will be inducted into the ‘Voting Rights Hall of Fame’ … Sen. Clinton will be on a new talk show on March 26. … John Edwards raised a million dollars online over the past two months. Clinton did the same over the past week.

Joe Biden

Biden joined Obama and Clinton in criticizing the conditions at Walter Reed hospital, and is co-sponsoring a bill with Obama to require improvements. There’s a little irony in there, somewhere. … Biden was recently in New Hampshire holding a town hall meeting on Iraq, and will be in South Carolina this weekend.

John Edwards

John Edwards raised a million dollars online over the past two months. But Hillary Clinton did the same over the past week. The article references that the first candidate to raise a million dollars online last cycle was Howard Dean - and he did it in May 2003. … Someone vandalized John Edwards virtual headquarters. … Edwards issued a statement endorsing a plan in Congress to end the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy of the military. … He also issued a statement supporting organized labor.

Tom Vilsack

Gone but not forgotten: In an attempt to at least make the playing field talk about his issues and perhaps also angle for a potential VP slot, Vilsack is starting the process of vetting candidates for an endorsement.

Mike Gravel

Mike Gravel issued a press release calling for Congress to ‘end torture.’ He stated, “Under the U.S. Constitution, all enemy combatants fall under the jurisdiction of the Congress. It is abhorrent that the United States government today continues to torture human beings in Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo Bay and other secret C.I.A. prisons.” He continued: “The Constitution is very clear that prisoners of war are the responsibility of the Congress. The Bush administration has unlawfully taken that power without Constitutional justification. The Congress has been derelict in its duty to see that enemy combatants are treated humanely within the guidelines of the Geneva Conventions, and has been equally neglectful in its response to the President’s unlawful use of torture.”

Wesley Clark

Clark continues sitting on the fence. In an interview with Democracy Now, he states on declaring for President: “I’m waiting for several different preconditions, which I’m not at liberty to discuss. But I will tell you this: I think about it every single day.” He spends a lot of time criticizing the approach of the Bush administration to Iran, saying the military option is a bad one, and diplomacy needs to be pursued. He then talked about the mindset of generals preparing for war. There’s no real additional position clarity in the interview, just more depth on his feelings on Iran and why he feels that way…. Clark is in New Hampshire this weekend.

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Poll Vaulting: Obama Behind Hillary, but Ahead in General Election Polls

The new Zogby Poll is out (which polls nationwide), and it is noteworthy not for the numbers of the poll, which by itself are very par for the course, but for the matchup strength in the general election.

Republican Results:
Giuliani 29%
McCain 20%
Romney 9%
Rice 7%
Gingrich 7%
Brownback 4%
Tancredo 1%
Hunter 1%
Someone else 4%
Not sure 19%

Giuliani leads in nearly every demographic; McCain only approaches him among voters older than 50. Also notice the lack of Mike Huckabee’s name. Among conservatives, it’s a little different:

Among those Republican voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” Romney wins 23%, compared to 22% for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The much–ballyhooed very conservative vote is split even more among second–tier candidates, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice winning 13% support and Sen. Sam Brownback winning 9%. Giuliani (4%) and McCain (3%) failed to win more than token support among this demographic.

Democratic Results:
Clinton 33%
Obama 25%
Edwards 12%
Richardson 5%
Biden 2%
Clark 1%
Someone else 3%
Not sure 20%

It is interesting that Obama continues to climb towards Hillary (a month ago he was down at 14%). Also interesting is the demographic results:

In the Democratic race, Clinton wins solid support among older voters, while Obama has the edge among younger counterparts. Clinton holds a 31% to 24% edge among white Democratic voters, while Obama leads among African–Americans, 36% to 27%. Progressives gave the nod to Obama, while moderates favored Clinton. The two were deadlocked at 30% support among male Democratic voters, but Clinton led among women, 34% to 22%.

In a measurement of how firm the support is for the candidates overall, Clinton’s support is just a bit weaker than that of Obama. A slight majority of Clinton supporters – 54% – said they are likely to change their minds before they actually cast a primary or caucus vote, while 48% of Obama supporters agreed. While his overall support lags, Edwards appears to have strong–minded backers: just 28% said they are likely to jump from the Edwards ship over the course of the next year.

As mentioned above, the noteworthy part in particular is the general election matchups.

Giuliani 47%, Clinton 40%
Giuliani 40%, Obama 46%
Giuliani 46%, Edwards 40%

McCain 47%, Clinton 39%
McCain 40%, Obama 44%
McCain 47%, Edwards 38%

Romney 35%, Clinton 45%
Romney 29%, Obama 51%
Romney 32%, Edwards 47%

As you can see, McCain and Giuliani poll almost exactly the same in the general election, as do Clinton and Edwards. Romney is behind, but that can at least partially be attributed to his low level of notoriety, particularly among people who will not be voting in the GOP Primary. The surprise is Obama polling so well compared to Edwards and Clinton. He makes in roads that neither of them with all their notoriety can make. And if Clinton and Edwards can’t amke up that ground by now, it’s unlikely they will suddenly be able to a year from now. The question, though, is how much this will hold up for Obama as his policies become more well known.

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Poll Vaulting: Clinton, Giuliani with Big Leads; Are McCain’s Age and Giuliani’s Marriages Bigger Problems than Romney’s Religion?

USA Today had a poll published yesterday.

After surveying 425 self-identified ‘Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party’:
Giuliani (40%) is ahead of McCain (24%), followed by Gingrich (9%), Romney (5%), Brownback (3%), Jim Gilmore (2%), Mike Huckabee (2%), Tommy Thompson (2%), Duncan Hunter (1%), Tom Tancredo (1%), Chuck Hagel (1%), and George Pataki (1%).

After surveying 495 self identified ‘Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party’:
Clinton (40%) is ahead of Obama (21%), followed by Al Gore (14%), John Edwards (13%), Bill Richardson (4%), Wesley Clark (1%), Chris Dodd (1%), and Joe Biden (1%).

When narrowed down to just Clinton and Obama, the poll results favored Clinton 62-33. (They did the same for McCain-Giuliani, but the difference was more or less the same).

That all said, I don’t think this nationwide poll is statistically significant. One, not a large enough sample size. Two, people in certain (Iowa, New hampshire) areas know the candidates better than other areas. I’m taking nationwide polls with a large, large grain of salt.

The interesting part was this:

More than four in 10 say they wouldn’t vote for a “generally well-qualified person” for president who was 72 years old — the age McCain will reach in August 2008. Three in 10 say they wouldn’t vote for someone who had been married three times, as has Giuliani.

And later in the article:

However, hurdles remain — including for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his candidacy Tuesday. When his father, then Michigan governor, led the Republican presidential field in 1967, 17% said they wouldn’t vote for a Mormon for president. Now, 24% do.

I have to wonder if the phrasing of the questions doesn’t have something to do with this. If polls come back with those sorts of numbers, people will be more likely to pay attention to them.

There’s another possibility. If Ronald Reagan was running and was 72, you would not see these poll numbers. I’m wondering if people are just registering their differences with McCain through these polls. Same with Giuliani. If you ask a Democrat if he would vote for someone over 72 or who has been married three times, it’s not really an invitation to honesty as much as it is a chance to hurt McCain and Giuliani in the polls. And this just isn’t Democrats - McCain supporters would probably do the same to Giuliani and vice versa.

In other words, I doubt the polls, not the candidates or the people. These numbers are red herrings.

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