Veepstakes News Roundup (July 4, 2008)

If you’re interested in the happenings with the candidates’ search for a running mate, then here’s a roundup of recent news…

• Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced that he will be marrying his current girlfriend; they have been dating for nine months.  Crist is often discussed as a possible running mate for John McCain, however, his bachelorhood combined with rumors of homosexuality have prevented many from seriously discussing him.  This marriage is seen by some as a way to deal with these roadblocks.
• John Edwards and Karl Rove are set to debate in September.  The smart folks at FiveThirtyEight see this as a strong indication that Edwards is definitely out of the VP running.
• Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is discussed as a potential choice for McCain (Phoenix Business Journal)
• Jonathan Alter makes the case for why Sam Nunn should be Obama’s VP choice. Meanwhile, Michael Goodwin discusses Hillary Clinton’s rising VP prospects (extra commentary on Clinton from PoliGazette here).
• Andrew Romano profiles Gov. Sebelius in his most recent veepstakes profile. (I only recommend reading this if you are REALLY intersted in Sebelius.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t).
• Rachel Maddow spews insanity when she says that Jeb Bush is currently McCain’s top VP choice.

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Partisan Hacks: Rachel Maddow ‘Would Bet’ That McCain Chooses Jeb Bush As VP

Appearing on yesterday’s Race For The White House on MSNBC, Rachel Maddow discussed the likelihood of John McCain choosing Jeb Bush as his running mate.  She stated:

Joe Scarborough: Rachel, you know, George W. Bush is like kryptonite to Republicans this year.  But, is Jeb Bush, the good Bush to be standing next to in 2008?

Rachel Maddow: Well, Floridians like Jeb Bush and it seems like John McCain likes Jeb Bush.  I mean everything you hear, I don’t know either of the candidates personally, right - I’m not an insider person who is getting that sort of information.  But, the people who are close the candidates, when they talk about who John McCain personally likes, who he has good chemistry with, they talk about Jeb Bush.  I think that when you hear McCain sort of bring up Jeb Bush unprompted in conversation, when you see Jeb Bush make this detour in Mexico City to go see McCain today - I think they’re testing just how important Jeb Bush’s last name is.  Because, if he had a different last name, I think there’s no question he would be right at the top of the list for McCain.

Scarborough: …But Rachel, you’re not saying that McCain could possibly pick Jeb Bush as his vice president, are you?

Maddow: If I had to bet, and I don’t bet, but if I had to bet today I would bet on Jeb Bush.  I honestly would.

It’s worth noting that last summer, Maddow put forth a conspiracy theory, which involved Cheney resigning for medical reasons and being replaced with Jeb Bush, who could then run for president as an incumbent VP.  Onto, yesterday’s comment…

To begin, the mere suggestion that McCain would choose Jeb Bush as his running mate is unbelievably silly.  I don’t care what side of the aisle you are on, if you’re on television you shouldn’t say things this absurd.  But, to Maddow’s credit, she did warn everyone how willfully ignorant she was.  After all, she acknowledged that she wasn’t an insider and has no specific information to support her senseless contention.  However, if you break down her analysis, it’s pretty obvious that she was solely saying it for political reasons, since, the more you tie McCain to Bush (either directly or indirectly, the better for the Democrats)…

She does provide a reason for her conclusion though: McCain is testing Jeb’s last name by meeting with him in Mexico City.  I’m not entirely sure how a meeting that took place in Mexico City with significantly less coverage than it would have gotten back in the US somehow satisfies or signifies testing Jeb’s name.  It actually doesn’t make sense.  But, that’s okay, because it doesn’t need to.  It only needs to link Bush and McCain.

It’s a shame when people, like Maddow, who spend so much time complaining about partisan hacks neglect to realize just what a hack they’ve become themselves.  In my opinion, anyone that prefaces a statement with something to the effect of ‘I have no idea what I am talking about, but…’ should not be allowed to finish that thought on a televised news program.  I guess I’m just reaching for the stars though…

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Romney Already Dropping VP Names

Some might call it presumptuous for a man who in the last poll of Republican voters only registered 3% to be dropping any VP name save his own. But not Mitt Romney.

In a campaign stop in South Carolina, Romney mentioned Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, SC Gov. Mark Sanford, and Sen. Jim DeMint (SC) by name; later, he told reporters that he wouldn’t fail to mention local names whenever asked. It’s curious, since most politicians defer that question until later, unless a specific name is brought up, when they normally deferentially deny anything specific. Mentioning local names might have been a way to connect with a lot of voters state wide, since this is the sort of thing that might get briefly mentioned on the local evening news.

Regarding his poll numbers, Romney told reporters, “The time I expect to be doing better is in the fall and winter and I’ve got plenty of time to get my numbers up. … I’m going to have as familiar a name as anybody else in the race.”

Also, former US Rep. Bob Beauprez of Colorado endorsed Romney.

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Saturday Afternoon GOP Roundup

Chuck Hagel

A great lookat the pure weirdness of Hagel’s speech to the IAFF earlier this week. He talked about volunteer firefighters at a convention of union firefighters; he wasn’t a candidate speaking to them, and the purpose of everyone speaking was it being a candidate forum. Hagel began his speech, “I am grateful to Harold and to the international firefighters for an opportunity to address you today. I know I am unworthy, of course, to do that for many reasons, probably most specifically that I am not an announced candidate for anything yet; I have no intention of announcing anything today… I tried that once this week.” He continued to attempt to justify his presence by saying: “So I am particularly grateful for allowing me to be an interloper here and not with the credentials that my colleagues who have appeared before me have and those who will appear later also possess, and that is their defined interest in leading this country.”

He made a grand point about the selflessness of America, and made the grand finale of the point about volunteer firefighters: “The firefighters, those who serve our nation in a very selfless way, whose interests are far greater than their own — your interests are, first, your community’s interests. The sacrifices made by firefighters, by policemen, by teachers, and certainly our armed forces and many others, is all about interests greater than their own self-interests. That is who we are. That does set America apart from every other nation, every society. It doesn’t mean that we’re better, it doesn’t mean we’re smarter, it doesn’t mean we’re more moral. De Tocqueville wrote about it in the 1830s, this strange land called America, when communities would come together and address the challenges, the threats, the issues in their communities. It worked because the people made it work. They came together a spirit conducive to making the town work, the community work. And I know of no better example of that than voluntary fire departments across this country. I know about volunteer fire departments in Nebraska; of the 400 and, I believe, 78 fire departments in Nebraska, 456 of them are volunteer fire departments.” At which point, of course, he was heckled.

The conference strongly opposed the war in Iraq, but Hagel barely mentioned the war at all, only in passing near the end of his speech. He’s pretty much lost his maverick mojo.

Hagel’s military service and positions on Iraq are contrastedwith those of John McCain. Hagel must be thanking the stars that the article hasn’t mentioned his disastrous week. Of course, I wonder if this was supposed to have run in the Tuesday edition of the Times before Hagel made his non-announcement. Now, it’s buried on a Saturday and all but forgotten. Where’s Metaphor Mike when you need him?

Duncan Hunter

A paid blogger for Hunter has been attacking Hunter’s opposition for the Presidency at his personal site without noting that he is paid by Hunter.

Henry Hyde endorsed Hunter, Saying, “There is a national cry for a true conservative candidate. I submit this cry has been answered by Duncan Hunter. He brings a wealth of experience, great foreign and domestic knowledge, and an energetic spirit to this race for the White House.”

Hunter’s son wrote an article about his father. Unlike Romney’s son’s appearance (see below), this did not come off as pandering or politically motivated to contrast with Giuliani.

Hunter also is posting 60 second audio updates on his front page.

Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson wrote an editorial about the emerging and changing dynamics in what people want from news. It’s not really political, but he seems to understand how people view the news and the world today, something a lot of candidates might be out of touch with, or depend on other people to tell them about. It’s not much, but it’s something of an edge.

Former Sen. Bill Frist, Rep. Zach Wamp, and Howard Baker, Chief of Staff in the White House under Ronald Reagan, are rounding up support for Thompson. He is going to meet with some Republican Congressman shortly about possibly making a run. The article also mentions that Thompson had tried to get a speech at CPAC, but the organizers turned him down, not knowing he might run.

Rep. Wamp wrote this editorial calling for Thompson to declare himself as a candidate, and listing ten reasons he should.

Jeb Bush

Bush is still adamantabout not running, says Grover Norquist.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore is trying to stop California from opening the GOP Primary to independents, a move that would significantly help Giuliani and McCain, calling the move in a letter “blatant attempt to manipulate the nomination process.”

John McCain

Another day, another tar baby controversy. McCain was asked a question about whether he “would be bold enough to address the issue of equal access to children for fathers that have gone through divorce.” He responded by saying, “I’m sorry to disappoint you, I am not going to overturn divorce court decisions. That’s why we have courts and that’s why people go to court and get a divorce. If I as President of the United States said this decision has to be overturned without the proper appeals process then I would be disturbing our entire system of government… For me to stand here before all these people and say that I’m going declare divorces invalid because someone feels that they weren’t treated fairly in court, we are getting into a, uh, uh, TAR BABY of enormous proportions.” Nothing illustrates the two meanings of the phrase better than this urban dictionary page. McCain apologized after the town hall meeting to reporters, saying, ”I don’t think I should have used that word and I was wrong to do so.” Mitt Romney used the phrase last year while discussing the Big Dig. Substantially, this gaffe is really nothing more than McCain not thinking of a better word. But given that the strategy of the McCain campaign is to get him on the trail as much as possible and talking to people about issues, this is a terrible omen. Between this and the ‘wasted’ controversy on Letterman, the gaffes are starting to outnumber the positive press for him. If this is a result of exhaustion on his part, it may only get worse. For someone who needs desparately to get better traction in the polls and is already weighed down by supporting an unpopular war, McCain can’t afford these types of avoidable mistakes.

McCain had a similar incident, albeit without the use of a controversial phrase, when he was asked if he supported taxpayer money being used to distribute condoms in Africa. As per the NYT Caucus Blog:

What followed was a long series of awkward pauses, glances up to the ceiling and the image of one of Mr. McCain’s aides, standing off to the back, urgently motioning his press secretary to come to Mr. McCain’s side.

This lengthy back and forth between a reporter and McCain is even awkward to read. Nothing about what McCain says is Presidential in the least.

Reporter: “Should U.S. taxpayer money go to places like Africa to fund contraception to prevent AIDS?”
Mr. McCain: “Well I think it’s a combination. The guy I really respect on this is Dr. Coburn. He believes – and I was just reading the thing he wrote– that you should do what you can to encourage abstinence where there is going to be sexual activity. Where that doesn’t succeed, than he thinks that we should employ contraceptives as well. But I agree with him that the first priority is on abstinence. I look to people like Dr. Coburn. I’m not very wise on it.”
(Mr. McCain turns to take a question on Iraq, but a moment later looks back to the reporter who asked him about AIDS.)
Mr. McCain: “I haven’t thought about it. Before I give you an answer, let me think about. Let me think about it a little bit because I never got a question about it before. I don’t know if I would use taxpayers’ money for it.”
Q: “What about grants for sex education in the United States? Should they include instructions about using contraceptives? Or should it be Bush’s policy, which is just abstinence?”
Mr. McCain: (Long pause) “Ahhh. I think I support the president’s policy.”
Q: “So no contraception, no counseling on contraception. Just abstinence. Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?”
Mr. McCain: (Long pause) “You’ve stumped me.”

McCain is in some trouble, no doubt about it. Thanks to The Caucus, again, for reporting this.

McCain is in New Hampshire this weekend, and hired a snowplow to make sure his bus could get through the winter weather to the campaign events. The events today are scheduled for Nashua, Milford, Lebanon, and Bow. A campaign appearance Friday in the state was cancelled because of the weather.

A challenge often overlookedis that Mccain has to win support in Iowa despite him ignoring the state in 2000 when he put all his energy into New Hampshire. He’s telling people in Iowa that money was the reason he could not campaign there in the last cycle. Iowa politicians, including the Governor, have supported him, so that effect could be minimal.

Mike Huckabee

The remaining ethics complaint filed against Mike Huckabee regarding his destruction of computers using the governor’s discretionary fund was dismissed unanimously by the Arkansas Ethics Commission. This will be the last it’s mentioned unless new information comes forward, which would be surprising at this point.

Huckabee will discuss his book in a lecture on April 4 at Washington University in St. Louis.

Huckabee was onReal Time with Bill Maher last night, and went after Maher for Maher’s comments about Cheney the week prior, saying, “Vice President Cheney told me to tell you that he’s not mad about anything you’ve said, and he wants to take you hunting.” It was a savvy comment, which won’t upset anyone on the right, but may get him coverage; it also will endear him to those on the right who have soured on Bush, since he is sticking up for Cheney. The show is available as a free podcast through iTunes, if you’d like to hear more of what Huckabee stated.

Mitt Romney

Romney openedhis state campaign headquarters in Michigan this week. It’s also noted in this article what his PAC raised and gave to Michigan candidates last year. McCain gave about half of what Romney gave.

Romney is in a fervent dashto get money for his campaign before the first quarter deadline, as a means of showing he is doing better than McCain or Giuliani. The article notes that Edwards and Dean both received sizable bumps after raising a lot of money. I’m wonder if those comparisons are a little chicken and egg though; money in part is donated because a candidate is doing well in the polls. Regardless, Romney is searching for any yardstick he can find to measure himself in public against the two candidates in front of him.

Romney this weekend was fundraising in southern California, following the footsteps of McCain and Huckabee earlier this week.

Romney’s son, Tagg Romney, talked with John Gibson. And while he denied that other candidates matter, he made sure to point out the duration of Romney’s marriage and how much he supports his parents, in what reads as a subtle jab at the Giuliani campaign.

Hugh Hewitt talkeddiscussed his book about Mitt Romney. If you care about Romney’s religion, there’s some interesting stuff in there (such as Romney saying that it would be inappropriate to take guidance from any Church leader, or for them even to contact him). I don’t care, though, and I hope more people don’t - it’s irrelevant.

Romney admitted that his candidacy depends on the results of the early primary states such as New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina.

Bush’s campaign finance adviser in California in 2000 and 2004 has signed on to support Romney. Romney also added some other financial supporters, including other former Bush-backers.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich will give the commencement address at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia. Gingrich previously was announced as the commencement speaker at Liberty University.

Gingrich talkedin Meadville, Pennsylvania at the Excalibur Charitable Foundation about the need for transformational change within government to make them mirror the business world more, saying, “On the one hand, we have breakthroughs in the private sector where business is able to produce more with less. … On the other hand, you have government with a fossilized bureaucracy set in 1965. The challenge for our nation is getting the things that work to migrate into government.”

Gingrich will speak at Vanderbilt University Tuesday night.

Ron Paul

Paul has been surprisingly successfulat building support through online social networking.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani wentto Michigan to start building his organization in the state, where he lags behind McCain and Romney (as he does in many states). Giuliani was endorsed by the Police Officers Association of Michigan, which has 14,000 members and has in the past endorsed both Republicans and Democrats. That could be a crucial endorsement in the race, much like IAFF helped Kerry in Iowa last cycle. At a dinner in Macomb County with Republicans celebrating Lincoln Day, Giuliani gave his stump speech and focused on lowering taxes and military strength.

Yet a local politician, Tom McMillin, who is the GOP Issues Committee Chairman in Michigan, statedthat even if Giuliani won the nomination that he would not get support, as he formed the ‘Conservative Declaration of Independence.’ McMillan said: “We are conservatives first and Republicans second, and we will not stand by as the Republican Party considers nominating a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-homosexual rights liberal as the nominee of our party.” Giuliani is becoming nearly as polarizing as Clinton.

Putting issues aside, this articlein the Post delves deep into the modus operandi of how Giuliani ran New York City. It’s a fascinating read, and shows how integral to Giuliani personal politics can be. He hasn’t unleashed anything nearly as vitriolic in the primary campaign; it will be interesting to see what he does if he falls behind, or if he does anything similar in the general election (or if it was all an act for NYC only).

A dossier entitled “Rudy Giuliani Life Long Liberal” is circulating among New York City newspapers. (Download document in .doc form here) It’s a 42 page treatise that compiles every anecdote about Giuliani that portrays him as moderate or liberal in his life, even referencing his schooling. If anyone wants to show Giuliani is not a conservative, this is the handbook. It may never explicitly come up again, but I’d be shocked if the staff of competing campaigns did not at least take a long look at it. The editor, George Martin, ran against Giuliani as the conservative nominee for mayor in 1993.

William Britton talked a bit more about his meeting with Giuliani, saying there’s no hidden secrets for him to reveal.

Sam Brownback

Brownback spoke in Peoria as the keynote speaker for the Republican Lincoln Day Dinner. He echoedthe Biden-Gelb plan by calling for Iraq to be split into three sectarian based states. He said the troops would have to remain “for some length of time” though. He also came out against a timetable, saying, “Iraq is as much as anything three groups held together by exterior borders. We need to push this and a timetable does not make that situation work.” He also talked about other issues, including social conservatism, and ethanol, an important regional issue.

Brownback is in Des Moines for St. Patrick’s Day, and even managed to work Ronald Reagan into his press release, which quoted him as saying, “a great Irish-American by the name of Ronald Reagan is the modern father of the Republican Party and his principles guide the conservative movement to this day.” He also mentions “my good friend Bono of U2“, in what reads like an awkward name drop.

Brownback condemned embryonic stem cell research as both immoral and unproductive, saying, “It’s morally wrong and its not yielded the results that adult stem cell research including cord blood cells and amniotic stem cells is achieving.” It’s interesting that those against embryonic stem cell research are constantly using this tactic: condemning it both in terms of morals and usefulness. That says a couple of things: first, that a majority of people disagree with the moral position; secondly, that a majority of people are still making up their mind. If something was immoral, you would imagine that would be enough.

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo tried to bring some flavor to his thus far vanilla campaign, talking about the Iraq war and health care in New Hampshire. Tancredo said that “It’s not a matter of whether we are going to be leaving Iraq, departing from there in some way or not, it’s going to happen. But I think that I, that I know that I would describe it differently than a withdrawal. It is, what we need to do, is disengage. And that is different than withdrawal. There is no way that we can leave Iraq tomorrow or the next day or the next month. A vacuum would occur that would be filled by the most radical elements and by potentially the most harmful effect. We do, however, need to change the way we actually exist in Iraq, what we’re doing there, and the size and force of our structure there. We need to withdraw, we need to disengage, and move to areas in and around the outskirts, if you will, of Baghdad and/or Iraq itself and begin the process of allowing Iraqis to run Iraq. It has to happen.” I’m not sure Americans would appreciate the troops dying while protecting ‘the outskirts.’ And I’m not sure comparing the situation in Iraq to what Benjamin Franklin said after coming out of the Constitutional Convention (American was given ‘a republic, if you can keep it’) is a fair comparison either.

Regarding health care, Tancredo agreed that health care insurance was a problem. His idea for restructuring was conservative in nature; what he would do instead of having a massive Medicare bureaucracy is give people vouchers for health care and let them decide on their own how to spend it; now, who those vouchers are payable to, insurers or providers, I do not know. He focused more on getting rid of bureaucracy than on the details of what ought replace it.

Tancredo said that he would not spend any taxpayer money on embryonic stem cell research and that he considers destroying embryos the same as destroying a human beings. He went further, saying that researchers are doing so well at research from other areas, that embryonic stem cell research is no longer even needed. He posited that it was a deliberate moral choice on the part of some (whom he did not identify) to continue destroying embryos.

Tancredo sent a letter to potential supporters saying “Do not delay your response. … I am counting on your contribution by March 31st and Agents Compean and Ramos are counting on us to help them get the justice they deserve.” A representative for the Center for Responsive Politics said that the letter could potentially mislead voters into thinking that supporting Tancredo will directly help Compean and Ramos get free; and unless Tancredo wins and pardons them, that obviously will not be the case.

Tom DeLay thinks Tancredo is a one issue candidate, although “his time will come.”

Tommy Thompson

Thompson has not campaigned outside of Iowa so far, but that may be about to change. Thompson hiredMeridian Communications; the company ran the campaign of GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Coburn, who set a record for the biggest loss ever in gubernatorial election in New Hampshire. The most experience they haveis the former experience of one of their four senior staff members who had a ’senior role’ in the Buchanan campaign in 1996. This doesn’t seem like Thompson is bringing out the big guns at all. The biggest win their website touts is an upset win in a mayoral election in 2005, an off-year election.

Thompson is speaking this coming Thursday about stem cells at Northeast Wisconsin Technical College.

Thompson is spending another weekend in Iowa, this one in Manchester. I’ll give it to him, he’s got a one-state strategy and he’s sticking to it.

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Jeb Bush Flexes Some Political Muscle

A few days ago, information about S.V. Date’s new book on Jeb Bush became available. Date, a veteral Florida reporter, claims that Jeb Bush will likely enter the 08 race for the White House sometime early next year, “For Jeb, the biggest factor that will push him into a presidential campaign will be his own boredom.” Date speculates that Jeb Bush may seek the vice-presidential spot in 08 and run for president in 2012 if the Republicans lose.

This aforementioned information could illumine the motivations behind Jeb Bush’s active support of Mitt Romney’s campaign. Jeb has been steering his closest advisors to Romney’s campaign. Supporting Romney could very well do two things for Jeb: 1) keeps his favor with religious and/or conservative republicans who view Romney as the strongest conservative candidate and 2) keep open the possibility for entering the 2008 race as Romney’s running mate (something, I don’t really happening)

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