Jim Gilmore: Not a Better Senate Candidate Than Presidential One
April 15, 2008 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
Mark Warner has raised more than 9 times as much as Jim Gilmore so far in the Virginia Senate race and has more than 21 times what Gilmore has in the bank:
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gimore (R), who is seeking the Senate seat of the retiring Sen. John Warner (R), is being crushed by his Democratic opponent, and former Virginia governor Mark Warner, on the fundraising front. This according to the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Gilmore reported raising just $402,000 in the first quarter, according to his first quarter 2008 giling with the FEC, bringing his total raised to just over $753,000 since he jumped into the campaign last November. Gilmore has $208,000 in cash-on-hand.
Mark Warner, on the other hand raised $2.52 million in the first quarter, according to his FEC reports. The Warner for Senate committee reported cash-on-hand of $4.38 million. Warner has raised more than $6.3 million overall since entering the race.
We’ll be looking more at Senate races this summer once the primaries are over, but this underscores the race in Virginia, which will be a crucial swing state likely this fall in the Presidential race. (I’m not optimistic about Gilmore Republicans).
With both Jim Webb and Mark Warner rumored as VP candidates as well, this race will be something to watch.
Sphere: Related ContentJim Gilmore Withdraws Bid For Republican Presidential Nomination
July 14, 2007 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
I guess Jim Gilmore just couldn’t see himself remaining in the race for the Republican nomination for president any longer.
Official statement from Gilmore’s website:
I am today withdrawing my candidacy for the Republican nomination for President. It has been a positive and rewarding experience for me, for my family, and for my supporters.
It has become apparent to me that the combination of my late start, and the front loaded nature of the primary schedule, have made it impractical to continue to pursue this path towards further public service.
I am proud of the fact that my campaign focused on the issues, worked hard to block amnesty for illegal immigrants, brought attention to the need to protect private property rights, and called for a new path in Iraq that would provide our valiant military men and women with a more clearly defined and achievable mission.
However, I have come to believe that it takes more than a positive vision for our nation’s future to successfully compete for the Presidency. I believe that it takes years of preparation to put in place both the political and financial infrastructure to contest what now amounts to a one-day national primary in February.
In the coming weeks and months, I intend to remain active in the Republican Party and in the public debate. I will be forming a state political action committee to assist Republican candidates in the General Assembly. Additionally, I will be actively looking for other opportunities to continue in public service in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
I’m not surprised by the news. The system isn’t all to blame, it’s important to keep in mind that Gilmore never really got his campaign operation off the ground and was not able to raise enough money to be competitive (approximately $170,000 in the first quarter and $211,000 in the second quarter). In a recent interview with the Politico’s Mike Allen, Gilmore mentioned that he has been approached about running for Virginia’s Governor’s office, again, or running for the Senate if Jim Warner (R-VA) decides not to seek reelection; Jim Gilmore said that he is considering both possibilities.
We saw the writing on the wall about Gilmore’s withdrawal when we discussed his eye surgery earlier this month.
[Photo Credit: Flickr user stgermh]
Related at 2008Central.net:
- Jim Gilmore Has Eye Surgery: Does Anyone Care? (July 2, 2007)
Petition: Equitable Time For All Candidates Participating In CNN/YouTube Debates
July 12, 2007 | Permalink | 3 Comments
We’ve covered all the presidential debates so far and something that has always frustrated us is the fact that there is such a huge disparity between in the amount of time that the individual candidates receive. In some debates some candidates have received 3 times as much speaking time their opponents in the same debate!
Accordingly, we’ve decided to take action and have created a petition that we plan on delivering to CNN and YouTube prior to the first debate (which is being held on July 23, 2007). The petition simply calls for them to reduce the time disparity by pledging to provide equitable time to all participating candidates.
Enough is enough. Together we can maximize the utility of these debates by demanding that all candidates be allowed to express their viewpoints in a somewhat comparable way.
Read the petition here.
Don’t want to read it and just want to sign? Go here.
Please spread the word about this effort to ehance presidential debates.
Text of the petition: Read more
Sphere: Related ContentAround The World - What They’re Saying About The U.S. Presidential Election (07/07/07)
*Today, we bring you a new addition to 2008Central.net. Each week we’ll roundup some interesting stories about the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election from around the world. Please note that because this is the first time we’re doing this, it may include stories from weeks preceding this one.
Iran
- The Clintons in race for presidency (PressTV, 7/3/07) - They’re buying the inevitability factor of Hillary Clinton:
Hillary’s ranking nationally, however, has given her an aura of invincibility.
- Clinton, Richardson urge Bush to continue talks with Iran (Tehran Times, 6/30/07)
- Obama foreshadows a ‘quiet riot’ (PresTV, 6/6/07) - An excerpt:
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama predicts a “quiet riot” emerging out of national indifference toward poor black neighborhoods.
Israel
- The Giuliani road show finds a receptive Jewish crowd (Haretz, 6/27/07)
Kuwait
- The unpardonable nature of Washington politics (Kuwait Times, 7/4/07) - Analysis of Bush’s commutation of Libby’s sentence and its relation to the election. An excerpt:
What about all the Republican politicians who defied public sentiment and insisted that President Bill Clinton be impeached for lying under oath about his affair with Monica Lewinsky? Many of them now minimize Libby’s perjury.
What about all those Democrats who thought public shame was punishment enough for Clinton lying under oath, basically the position adopted today by Libby’s supporters? Many of those Democrats now think Libby should go to jail for his perjury.
Scotland
- Democrats fill war chests as the money backs new presidency (The Scotsman, 7/5/07) -Analysis of second quarter 2007 fundraising. An excerpt:
The increasingly unpopular and apparently intractable war in Iraq and the failure of George Bush, the president, to make much headway with his domestic agenda has made the Democrats’ nominee - whoever he or she is - the favourite to win the presidency next November.
Region: Africa
- Republicans in disarray as they search for a saviour [sic] (Mail & Guardian Online, 07/01/07) - Interesting perspective on the current state of the election, pretty much talks about all the major players at some point:
The [Republican] party is in turmoil and each campaign has been dogged by scandals, infighting and arguments.
Just a week ago, Giuliani’s problems were magnified when a state chairperson of his presidential campaign, Thomas Ravenel, was indicted on charges of cocaine dealing. But it hardly had Giuliani’s rivals celebrating. Arizona Senator John McCain is sinking in the polls, thanks to his support for the Iraq war. And former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has been derided as a flip-flopper who changes his views to suit circumstances.
All this is in contrast to the Democrats, whose top candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards — are running professional operations. Some experts predict a Democratic win, no matter who the Republicans choose.
Region: Middle East/Gulf
- Immigration scaremongering (Gulf News, 7/4/07) - Discusses the failure of immigration reform and its relation to presidential election:
Unfortunately, scaremongering - particularly scaremongering that touches on the hot-button issues of race and terror - appears to be a major element of a number of Republican presidential campaigns, especially Giuliani’s. The theory appears to be that getting enough people sufficiently frightened will ensure that they vote GOP
If I come across any other good articles this weekend, I’ll be sure to update this post…
Sphere: Related ContentJim Gilmore Has Eye Surgery: Does Anyone Care?
The blog for Jim Gilmore’s campaign announced that Gilmore had surgery on Friday:
The presidential campaign of former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore announced today that Gilmore received emergency eye surgery Friday to repair a partially detached retina in his right eye.
The surgery, which was performed by Dr. Juan Astruc, Jr. at the Retina Institute of Virginia in Richmond was successful and Gilmore is currently recuperating at home in Richmond. “The emergency surgery went well and the Governor’s prognosis is good,” Dr. Astruc said Monday.
Gilmore spokesman Dick Leggitt said doctors had restricted Gilmore’s travels for an indefinite period of time and the campaign has cancelled its scheduled events for at least the next seven days. “He is very anxious to get back to campaigning, but for the moment that is not possible,” Leggitt said.
The bigger question: Does anyone care? He’d already backed out of the Iowa Straw Poll, and even if he were running for a cabinet post, it would be hard to see a favorable scenario unfolding for him. 
If I was a cynic, I would ask if this explains why Gilmore can’t see how hopeless his campaign is.
That’s if I were a cynic.
Sphere: Related ContentPress Released: Week of June 24 - July 1
July 1, 2007 | Permalink | 10 Comments
Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics. Calendar press releases will not be covered.
Barack Obama
Bill Richardson
Christopher Dodd
Dennis Kucinich
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
John Edwards
Duncan Hunter
Jim Gilmore
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Rudy Giuliani
Sam Brownback
Tom Tancredo
Tommy Thompson
Mike Bloomberg
Mayors against Illegal Guns, the group led by Bloomberg, hailed the removal of the Tiar amendment in the Appropriations bill, saying:
The Tiahrt Amendment, a version of which has been inserted into the Department of Justice appropriations bill each year since Fiscal Year 2003, places broad restrictions on the use of information the ATF collects on guns used in crimes, called trace data. The Tiahrt Amendment also prevents local governments and police from accessing federal crime gun trace data from areas outside their immediate geographic jurisdiction; prevents cities from use of trace data in state and local civil enforcement actions, including gun license revocations; and prevents the ATF from publishing reports that use crime gun trace data to analyze nationwide gun trafficking patterns.
Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; e.g., if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.
Sphere: Related ContentPolicy Breakdown: Hunter Argues for Keeping Guantanamo Open
While closing Guantanamo has been a popular topic ever since Colin Powell said it should be closed on Meet the Press, Duncan Hunter (among other Republicans) is arguing to keep it open.
Hunter said regarding Guantanamo:
“Once these detainees are brought onto U.S. soil, the detainees may acquire minimal rights under the Constitution, in particular, the right to habeas corpus. This change in status will inevitably spawn a completely new round of litigation,” Hunter said in a statement.
“While I believe the Combatant Status Review Tribunals that all detainees at Guantanamo receive satisfy those rights, it would take years of further litigation to finally reach that result,” the congressman said. “Thus, the military commission process would be stalled for the foreseeable future, and none of the detainees at Guantanamo would be brought to justice.”
“Some would like this result; they would prefer to see terrorists tried under our federal criminal justice system. This is a false choice,” Hunter said.
“We cannot try terrorists for war crimes if it requires our soldiers to read terrorists Miranda rights or take a battalion of lawyers onto the battlefield,” he said. “Military commissions are crucial because they are crafted for the conduct of war by providing procedures flexible enough to account for the constraints and conditions of the battlefield.”
Thus far, all Democratic candidates and Republican candidates Ron Paul and John McCain have called for Guantanamo to be closed, including Fred Thompson who has yet to officially declare.
[Photo Credit: Flickr user Rob Bluey]
Related at 2008 Central:
Press Released: Week of June 18-24
June 24, 2007 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics.
Barack Obama
Bill Richardson
Christopher Dodd
Dennis Kucinich
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
John Edwards
Duncan Hunter
Fred Thompson
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Rudy Giuliani
Sam Brownback
Tom Tancredo
Mike Bloomberg
Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.
Sphere: Related Content2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (06/24/07)
June 24, 2007 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
This week’s podcast covers…
- Mike Bloomberg departing the GOP
- Fred Thompson to announce soon?
- John McCain and Mitt Romney’s political scuffle
- Hillary Clinton booed at the Take Back America Conference: What’s it mean?
- 2008Central.net’s John Whitehouse attended the “Generation Barack Obama” event in New York City on June 22, 2007. What were his impressions?
- Despite a rough couple of weeks, Rudy Giuliani remains the leader of the pack
- Notes on the second tier
- A look ahead to the close of the second fundraising quarter of 2007 and the significance of primary date movement in Floria and New Jersey
- And more…
Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).
Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast
Blog Buzz Watch (06/17/07-06/23/07)
June 23, 2007 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 1:30 PM 06/17/07 through 1:30PM 06/23/07…
Democrats
Republicans
Head To Head
Poll Vaulting Special: Getting Bi-Poll-ar
The recent Mason Dixon poll with Obama ahead of Clinton in South Carolina and McCain in fourth place in the state at 7% has gotten a lot of press. But evidence seems to be emerging that it’s not a credible poll.
First, there is just simple instinct. While McCain may have lost some support with immigration becoming a more visible issue than Iraq and the War on Terror in the past couple weeks, there’s been no indication of a drastic slide elsewhere - either in other polls or in other states. It’s the same with Obama: there’s no indication of him yet surpassing Clinton, who has not really made a single mistake in the campaign of any consequence. The point being these are clearly outlier results.
Secondly, the company that released the poll, Mason Dixon polling, has a history of skewed results. In 1998, the company released two separate polls for the Governor’s race in the state within a day of each other, with different results. [Thanks to Palmetto Scoop for doing the research; I recommend their write-up on Mason-Dixon]
Thirdly, anecdotel evidence suggests otherwise. Now, no one disputes the McCain campaign is having serious problems relating the candidate the way he did in 1999; that much is obvious. He’s also having problems raising as much money as he’s promised, even though he’s fundraising at a break neck pace, with multiple fundraisers a day, with rarely a day off. But someone who has 7% in polls does not get messages from the Speaker of the state House being sent out trying to fundraise. SC House Speaker Bobby Harrell said the following on McCain in a recorded message:
I have the distinct honor to serve as Senator McCain’s state co-chairman in South Carolina, and I am proud to say he is well-positioned for victory in the Palmetto State. He’s assembled an unsurpassed team of supporters. He’s built a strong grassroots organization of highly-motivated volunteers, and John McCain is leading the way in every major South Carolina poll.
Senator McCain is hard at work on the campaign trail day-in and day-out. His straight talk message is hitting home with voters from the Grand Strand to the Upstate, from the Pee Dee to the Low-Country. And it’s your financial support that gives the campaign resources necessary for success.
As the campaign heads into the crucial summer months and with a key June 30th fundraising deadline fast-approaching, I have a favor to ask of you.
If you haven’t done so already, I urge you to consider making a commitment to common sense conservatism. If you are already on-board, let me thank you for your support and ask that you reaffirm your commitment today.
Can I and John McCain count on you to make a contribution of $2,300, $1,000, $500, $50 or even $25 to give the campaign the firepower it needs?
Lastly, polls directly after and before this poll seem to point otherwise. I’m specifically referring to the American Rearch Group South Carolina polls for Republicans and Democrats taken in late May, the Winthrop / ETV South Carolina poll taken in the second half of May, and national polls taken in June. National polls in June include the Cook Political/RT Strategies national omnibus poll, the American Research Group poll, and the USA Today / Gallup poll. Here’s a comparison of all of those results in a chart; it’s easy to see which one is the outlier. (Note: the Winthrop /ETV Poll separated independents and Republicans into separate results. I’m including only Republican voters; McCain was chosen by 9.1% of independent voters, which was second among Republicans to Giuliani’s 12.3%)
| Candidate | SC ARG May | SC WETV May | SC Mas-Dix | Nat Cook | Nat ARG | Nat Gallup |
| Rudy Giuliani | 23 % | 18.6 % | 21 % | 23 % | 24 % | 28% |
| John McCain | 32 % | 14.4 % | 7 % | 20 % | 20 % | 18 % |
| Fred Thompson | 13 % | 6.4 % | 25 % | 12 % | 15 % | 19 % |
| Mitt Romney | 10 % | 11.7 % | 11 % | 8 % | 10 % | 7 % |
| Newt Gingrich | 6 % | 3.4 % | unknown | 5 % | 12 % | 7 % |
| Mike Huckabee | 1 % | 0.8 % | 5 % | 2 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Sam Brownback | 1 % | 1.5 % | unknown | 1 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Duncan Hunter | 1 % | 0.8 % | unknown | 1 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Ron Paul | 0 % | 0.8 % | unknown | 1 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Tom Tancredo | 1 % | 0.8 % | unknown | 0 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Tommy Thompson | 1 % | 0.8 % | unknown | 1 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Jim Gilmore | 1 % | 0.8 % | unknown | 1 % | 1 % | < 3 % |
| Undecided | 11 % | 29.9 % | 28 % | 22 % | 11 % | unknown |
There’s no doubt McCain seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But one poll with a shady history does not mean his campaign is dead quite yet. We’ll stay on the lookout for more information in the meantime.
Sphere: Related ContentRepublican Wednesday Afternoon Roundup
June 13, 2007 | Permalink | 7 Comments
Duncan Hunter
- Hunter is, unsurprsingly, a hawk on potential conflict with Iran.
- Hunter praised Gen. Pace, on his way out as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, for his service.
- Hunter is still getting negative reviews for his defending of earmarks to build a plane the Navy didn’t want, as I wrote about yesterday.
Fred Thompson
- Fred Thompson was on Leno last night. He mainly played coy, but did indicate that there were things he wanted to do that could only be done by the President.
- I’m not paying close attention whatsoever to national polls, but it’s interesting that Thompson has tied Giuliani for first in one such poll. Former NY Sen. Al D’Amato is backing Fred Thompson instead of New Yorker Rudy Giuliani.
- Fred Thompson has so far only said that his record is pro-life, despite a questionnaire filled out in the past that seems to indicate otherwise. George Will also took some hard swings at the prospect of a Thompson candidacy.
Jim Gilmore
- Gilmore will not be participating in the Iowa Straw Poll.
- Some are mentioning Gilmore as a possibile candidate to run in place of Sen. John Warner, but people in Virginia don’t seem to like him as an option there either.
- Gilmore, Paul, and Gravel are scheduled to address the National Taxpayers Conference 2007 tomorrow in Washington, DC.
John Cox
- John Cox says he will participate in the Iowa Straw Poll. He also wants to get rid of the 16th Amendment for a Fair Tax instead.
John McCain
- While he attacks Mitt Romney (see below), Tom Tancredo called the collapse of the immigration bill the death knell for the McCain campaign. McCain is still confident that a working bill can pass the Senate, though.
- The Washington Post has a good look at members of the McCain team who worked for Bush - and directly against McCain - in 2000. But they’re not the confidants as much as they are the hired help. Too early to take too much away from this article, but in short, do not count the McCain team out, no matter how bleak it may look right now.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty campaigned for McCain this week in Iowa. McCain for his part thinks his position on global warming can win him support in northern California.
Mike Huckabee
- Huckabee wants to participate in the Iowa Straw Poll and still is including himself for now, but will re-evaluate how meaningful it will be before he makes the final decision to spend precious resources on it.
- Huckabee, who has visited Guantanamo, says that it is not as bad as its reputation, and is actually better than some prisons in Arkansas. He’s also joked around about Paris Hilton and Britney Spears.
- Huckabee had a bad week this week; first confusing Reagan’s birth day and death day, and then getting an appearance cancelled because of lack of interest - perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a politician. And I’m not really sure what to write about this. Perhaps I should just link it and move on.
Mitt Romney
- Not only Brownback (see below) but now also John McCain is attacking Mitt Romney on abortion, circulating a video:
Republican John McCain’s campaign criticized rival Mitt Romney’s abortion record anew Wednesday, circulating a video showing the then-Massachusetts governor reiterating his vow to uphold the state’s abortion-rights laws.
“I have indicated that as governor, I am absolutely committed to my promise to maintain the status quo with regards to laws relating to abortion and choice, and so far I’ve been able to successfully do that,” Romney says, answering a question at a May 27, 2005, news conference the day he vetoed the state’s stem cell legislation.
He adds: “My personal, philosophical views about this issue are not something that I think would do anything other than distract from what I think is a more critical agenda” that includes jobs, education and health care.
- In related news, Romney announced his team of advisors that will counsel him on faith and values issues.
- Romney did not grant a pardon while Governor of Massachusetts.
- Some are crediting the $4 million that Mitt Romney has spent on advertising since February as a reason that his poll numbers have gone up so dramatically.
Newt Gingrich
- There’s an article from the AP that Gingrich’s financial backers are the ones who stand to monetarily gain if his ideas are made into policy. Personal politics aside, any accusations are probably looking at this from the wrong angle: Given his history in politics, he had ideas and probably solicited for donations. I’m not of the opinion this is anything that serious.
- Gingrich keeps telling Republicans to look at Sarkozy in France for a template on how to run.
Ron Paul
- Paul is starting to see greater exposure and support in New Hampshire visibly. Will a rise in the polls be next? We’ve long thought that his message would play better there than almost anywhere else. He’s also kept getting donations based on his performances in the debates. He finished second (albeit very distant) to Mitt Romney in the Utah straw poll.
- Paul’s strong support keeps growing. His campaign manager says that the GOP call center was shut down after it was flooded with calls urging Paul to be left in the debates.
- Paul may have over one million supporters online by 2008. I also caught this interview of Paul by Tucker Carlson, and Paul came off very well.
Rudy Giuliani
- Giuliani unveiled his ‘12 Committments to the American People’ yesterday in New Hampshire. GreenMountainPolitics1 was not impressed, nor were Liberty Papers (who I think it is fair to assume are representative of Ron Paul supporters.) In general, the 12 commitments just seem to be an outline of his talking points, really.
- Giuliani received a much more friendly reception when he was interviewed by Sean Hannity yesterday. The interview went back and forth from Giuliani explaining his positions to attacking Democrats; there was little to no pressure put on Giuliani in the interview (the toughest question may have been: “Do you think you could actually cut the size of government then?”). Giuliani also announced he would participate in an August GOP debate.
- Following in James Dobson’s lead, a number of conservative Republicans have said that they cannot support Giuliani because of his position on abortion.
Sam Brownback
- Brownback is still going to participate in the Straw Poll, and has a new web site partially dedicated to it (if anyone can get the entire site to work smoothly, drop a comment and let me know). It’s almost the best web site a Republican has, it’s just functioning exceptionally slowly and doesn’t provide quite enough information. Brownback will be spending four days next week on a bus tour of Iowa.
- The Brownback-Romney feud continues, with Brownback chellenging Romney to debate, even saying “I’m prolife. He’s not.” Brownback is also getting praise and heat for his belief that abortion should be illegal even in cases of rape and incest.
- Brownback is interviewed here about stem cell research.
Tom Tancredo
- Tancredo is still going to participate in the Straw Poll.
- John McCaslin writes about a Weekly Standard piece about Tancredo’s story that Karl Rove banned him from the White House:
Mr. Tancredo had told The Washington Times during an interview in April 2002 that because of the “open-door” policy President Bush favored on immigration, terrorists could be “waltzing across the border” thirsty for American “blood,” which the congressman warned would be on the administration’s “hands.”
Mr. Rove was not happy to read the remarks, and he personally called Mr. Tancredo to complain. (The White House denies that the phrase “darken the doorstep” was ever used by Mr. Rove.)
Ever since, continues the magazine, Mr. Tancredo has had people believing that in light of his public disagreement with Mr. Bush, he has been banned from the White House for the life of the presidency. But that’s not the case.
Mr. Tancredo has been invited to the White House twice each year in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and once so far in 2007 with another invitation on its way.
“And, lo and behold, he accepted and showed up on most, if not all, of those occasions,” the magazine concludes.
- Tancredo explained further his call to temporarily halt legal immigration. He also answered ten questions in Time magazine about his campaign.
Tommy Thompson
- A week old, but a still interesting interview of Tommy Thompson with Deadspin.
- Thompson is rethinking entry into the Straw Poll after McCain and Giuliani backed out.
- Thompson is going to start running a radio ad in Iowa about his plan for Iraq. In the 60 second ad, he states: “The Iraq War is the most important issue facing our country and our party. This is Tommy Thompson. My plan to win the peace in Iraq is straightforward. First, force a vote of the Al Maliki government as to whether they want our troops in the country. If they vote “yes” our stay is legitimate. If they vote “no”, then we begin redeploying our troops out of Iraq. Second, they should establish 18 state governments where each major ethnic group can elect their own people. This would bring an end to much of the strife that currently divides Iraq. Finally, they must share their oil profits with every person in Iraq, just like the state of Alaska does with its oil revenues. This would spark an upsurge in their economy and give every man, woman and child a stake in the future of their oil industry and their country. I’m Tommy Thompson and my campaign for president is talking real solutions to real problems. Visit my Web site at Tommy2008.com to learn more.”
[Audio available from Tommy2008.com]
Candidate Statements on Failure of Immigration Reform Bill
June 10, 2007 | Permalink | 3 Comments
“The collapse of this important legislation demonstrates a tragic breakdown of lawmakers’ ability to build compromise and the President’s ability to work with Congress to get things done. It is also clear evidence of the ongoing disconnect between Washington and the American public.
Never in our history has the need for such legislation been greater- the issue is tearing the country apart, and the people want action. Yet some of the members of Congress refuse to join the majority of Democrats who put the best interests of the nation first, and instead continue to put politics ahead of progress.
We need an immigration plan that secures our borders, creates a tough but fair path to legalization for those already here, penalizes employers who knowingly hire illegal workers, makes families the priority, and engages Mexico to help work with us to solve this problem.”
Chris Dodd:
“I am gravely disappointed that comprehensive immigration reform has again been put off, and at the tenor with which the debate was conducted. The failure of this bill was in part due to the divisiveness that has been sewn into the American political fabric over the last six years. We need to restore leadership that can bring people together to get things done.”
“Our immigration system is broken and we have an obligation to work on it until we fix it. The immigration bill isn’t perfect, but it’s an important step forward. To be honest, there are many things I don’t like about it such as the temporary worker program and a green card system that overemphasizes wealth and devalues family ties. But we owe it to the people we serve to work through our differences and ultimately resolve this problem. That’s why I voted to keep working on the bill – this issue is too important to just quit on.”
“The American people, who have a very strong sense of right and wrong, knew from day one this bill was not what its sponsors said it was — and that it was the wrong solution for the immigration challenges facing our nation,” Gilmore said.
“And, finally as a result of a strong grassroots effort, enough Senators have seen the light to bring about the failure of the bill. Now it is important to keep the pressure on so this flawed legislation is not resurrected,” Gilmore said.
“This compromise immigration deal would have placed our national security at risk by granting amnesty to untold millions of illegal immigrants and our economic security at risk by providing those same illegal immigrants with entitlements costing American taxpayers trillions of dollars,” Gilmore said.
“This immigration sell out failed because the American people saw it for what it was from the beginning. The shame is that it took so many members of the U.S. Senate so long to understand the ramifications of their secretly negotiated handiwork,” Gilmore said.
“The American people demand that their politicians enact an immigration reform bill that addresses security first. I cannot support any immigration deal that compromises on this basic principle.
“This bill failed to guarantee a uniform, tamper-proof, biometric identification card, a single nation-wide database of foreigners in our country, and did not mandate the full implementation of a biometric check-in, check-out system. We can and must guarantee the American people that we know who is coming in and out of our country.
“As President, my administration will dedicate itself to assuring the American people that we have a secure border.”
Sphere: Related Content“This is a testament to the will of the American people and a great victory for our country,” said Tancredo. “It’s time to move forward with what we should have been doing when this bill was originally passed is 1986, and consistently enforce the laws. I call it Plan A.”
Press Released: Week of June 4-10
Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not complete, but should be comprehensive:
Barack Obama
Bill Richardson
Christopher Dodd
Dennis Kucinich
Hillary Clinton
Clinton, in addition to introducing the bill to combat tuberculosis, called for the CDC to improve their ability to fight it.
Joe Biden
John Edwards
Mike Gravel
Duncan Hunter
Jim Gilmore
John McCain
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Rudy Giuliani
Sam Brownback
Tom Tancredo
Blog Buzz Watch (06/04/07-06/10/07)
June 10, 2007 | Permalink | Leave a Comment
Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 11:45 AM 06/04/07 through 11:45 AM 06/10/07…
Democrats
Republicans
Sphere: Related Content
CNN New Hampshire Republican Primary Debate Statistics (6/5/07)
June 5, 2007 | Permalink | 4 Comments
Candidate Time (By Time Speaking)
- John McCain: 13 minutes, 5 seconds
- Rudy Giuliani: 12 minutes, 10 seconds
- Mitt Romney: 11 minutes, 21 seconds
- Duncan Hunter: 8 minutes, 10 seconds
- Sam Brownback: 7 minutes, 25 seconds
- Mike Huckabee: 6 minutes, 31 seconds
- Ron Paul: 6 minutes, 2 seconds
- Jim Gilmore: 5 minutes, 48 seconds
- Tom Tancredo: 5 minutes, 31 seconds
- Tommy Thompson: 4 minutes, 19 seconds
Questions Responses:
- Rudy Giuliani: 14
- Mitt Romney: 13
- John McCain: 11
- Sam Brownback: 9
- Ron Paul: 8
- Duncan Hunter: 8
- Mike Huckabee: 7
- Tom Tancredo: 6
- Jim Gilmore: 6
- Tommy Thompson: 6
* This includes both questions asked as well as significant responses.
Responses By Topic:
- Iraq: 16
- Immigration: 13
- President Bush’s Biggest Mistake: 8
- Iran: 5
- Climate Change/Global Warming: 5
- Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: 5
- Bringing Moderates and Independents Back Into GOP: 5
- Today’s Most Pressing Moral Issue: 4
- Pardoning Of Scooter Libby: 4
- Advertising In Spanish/Relating to Legal Immigrants: 3
- Evolution/Creationism: 3
- What To Do With George W. Bush After He Leaves Office: 3
- Abortion: 2
- Heath Care: 2
- Prescription Drugs: 2
- Conservation/Environment: 2
- Fred Thompson: 2
- Separation of Church and State: 1
- Meaning of Being an American: 1
- English As Official Language: 1
- What’s Happening to the Republican Party?: 1
- Mitt Romney’s Faith: 1
- Preventing the GOP From Continuing To Lose Support: 1
Live Blog Of CNN Republican Debate In New Hampshire (6/5/07)
June 5, 2007 | Permalink | 8 Comments
6:42: Lou Dobbs is anchoring the pre-debate show, giving a lot of his attention to the immigration bill. Anyone tuning in early is essentially getting an anti-McCain lecture.
6:45: No preview today, as you may have noticed. The really interesting thing about the debate will be what the spectre of Fred Thompson looming as a candidate does to candidates. He’s probably going to hurt just about everyone in some way or another. The second tier and below may feel pressured to make an impact tonight, which might make for interesting confrontations.
6:55: Candidates are on stage.
7:00: Left to right on stage: Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, and Ron Paul. Again CNN puts the candidates they put more seriously towards the center. Tommy Thompson starts off with a shot at Fred Thompson shot, saying he is “the candidate, not the actor.” Huckabee makes a nice joke about Hope. But long winded intros on balance.
7:04: Romney is asked about Iraq, asked if it was a mistake to invade Iraq. Romney says its a ‘non-sequitur.’ He says America was underprepared for what happened after, but takes a shot at Harry Reid. Says its time to stablize central government in Iraq. Blitzer presses the question, Romney again defers. He says the hypothetical is unreasonable.
7:06: Giuliani says that is was ‘absolutely the right thing to do.’ Giuliani says Iraq is part of the overall war on terror, and takes a shot at Biden and Democrats for not understanding it.
7:07: McCain is asked about Iraq and the NEI, and says that Hussein would have used WMDs had he gotten them.
7:08: Brownback is asked about the NEI and says he did not read it either, and says whats important now is a political plan, and he is introducing a plan tomorrow to introduce a 3 state solution in Iraq.
7:09: Gilmore is asked about the NEI, and he states that everyone cannot read everything. He says there is a strong reason to build stability in the Middle East.
7:10: McCain is asked what he would support if Petraeus reports that the surge is not significantly helping. McCain says that if there is failure, they will follow us home and things will get worse, and Iraq will be a base for terror. He concludes with a shot at Clinton, saying he never said Bosnia was ‘Mr. Clinton’s War.’ When Blitzer pushes the question, McCain attacks the Brownback plan, and other bad options.
7:12: Same question for Thompson, who is louder tonight. He calls for the Maliki government to vote on whether they want us there. Thompson also calls for local elections. Blitzer interrupts, but Thompson pushes in his plan to divide oil revenues.
7:13: Same question for Hunter, who says he read the NIE. Hunter says it depends on independent Iraqi forces, who could eventually replace Americans.
7:14: Paul is asked about Iraq, who says that we should come home asap, saying America is more threatened now by staying (getting an ovation, second of the night after McCain).
7:15: Huckabee is asked about Iraq, who mentions Reagan’s birthday. He says America underestimates how determined people are to destroy us.
7:16: Tancredo says he did not support the surge, but hopes it works. He quotes Franklin on saying ‘a republic if you can keep it.’ He wants more Iraqis in the war. Gets some mild applause.
7:17: Brownback is asked if talking with a terrorist sponsor like Iran is OK. He says its better to not negotiate with Iran. He also says that its sometimes necessary to talk with people like that, just not negotiate. He calls for an aggressive stand against Iran. Blitzer accidentally calls Brownback a Congressman.
7:18: Hunter says there are two conditions to talking with Iran. Hunter says we should not give up right to stop IEDs from getting to Iraq and not give up the right to preemptively destroy any nuclear development.
7:20: Giuliani is asked about Iran, who says that they cannot have ‘nuclear power.’ Tactical nukes are on the table. He says that the Democrats are in denial about Iran, he also attacks Edwards by saying it is not a bumper sticker. Some applause.
7:21: Gilmore is asked about tactical nukes, who first mentions how the Iraq war is justified. Gilmore mentions using more carrots than the other candidates so far.
7:22: Romney agrees nothing is off the table. Romney says people everyone (Iran, Iraq, Sudan) are testing America. Romney wants to move the world of Islam to something more modern to empower moderates. He finishes by attacking the Democrats lastly. Blitzer mentions that the building is getting hit by lightning.
7:23: Tancredo is asked about the immigration bill. Here …. we … go. He says its ‘disastrous.’ Says its not about jobs or kids in school or people taking advantage of hospitals or welfare. He says its about survival as a nation, saying America might break apart and balkanize, and says English is at risk. Gets applause for the statement.
7:25: Giuliani says the plan has no purpose, and is a ‘mess.’ Compromises will make things worse. He calls for the tamper proof ID card again, and throwing out anyone who is not registered.
7:26: Romney is asked about immigration and comments by McCain, but defers from criticizing him personally. He criticizes the illegal immigration Z visa which would allow illegals to stay here over legal ones waiting. Gets some applause.
7:27: McCain says that Giuliani described the legislation. Says it is a national security issue first and foremost. Mentions Ft. Dix. Says doing nothing is amnesty. Says that the party and other party came together. Asks if anyone has a better idea (everyone in second tier else raises hand). Keeps adding ‘my friends’ to every sentence. Gets some applause.
7:29: Giuliani says he read the legislation, but it does not account who leaves the country. He also says there is no database. Very scattered applause.
7:30: Romney says he would first enforce the law as it exists, and gets applause. Romney wants the Z visa temporary, not permanent.
7:31: Hunter is asked about immigration, asks who will do the jobs that no one elses wants. Hunter says Americans will take at least some of the jobs. He says that 850 miles of border fence were ordered, but only 11 miles were built. Calls the bill the ‘Bush-McCain-Kennedy’ bill. Gets some applause.
7:32: Brownback says he creates no new paths for citizenship, but would allow people to get at the back of the line. Wants more enforcement exterior and interior, with some reform interior.
7:34: Thompson says that securing the border should be first and foremost, with nothing happening first. He says the bill is an ‘amnesty bill.’ Cites Hunter.
7:34: Paul says he supported the fence on the border, but would not support one on the border with Canada. Says that economic conditions have made the immigration a reality, and that needs to be changed.
7:36: McCain says English is importan, but says Native Americans have rights to speak their language. Also says 34% of illegals overstay their visas.
7:38: Another question to Gilmore about Rudy McRomney, and Fred Thompson. Gilmore says he’s not sure about Thompson, but that he is a conservative. Sort of a weird question, forcing discussion about a candidate-to-be. Gilmore also mentions Gingrich, saying he looks forward to debating anyone.
7:39: Tommy Thompson is asked about him. Makes a jokes about the Thompson name. Says no one reduced taxes like him, or had as many vetoes as him.
7:40: A NH bishop compared Giuliani to Pontius Pilate. (Yikes). And we lose his mic from lightning, and that’s certainly awkward. He starts again and we briefly lose his mic twice more. But says he takes an oath to enforce the law, not to enforce moral decisions. Says he weighs morals, Constitution, and his views of a pluralistic society.
7:41: Romney is asked why people should believe him on abortion. Cites his record, and tells his story about how that happened again. Talks about English immersion and abstinence education.
7:42: Huckabee is asked about evolution, and what he thinks. Huckabee is surprised the question is being asked. Says either God created it or it was an accident. Says there was a God active in creation process and he does not know. Makes it about God. Blitzer pushes him (I have no idea why), Huckabee reiterates that he was not there and he does not know how creation happen. Gets applause.
7:45: Brownback is asked about evolution. He says everyone was created in the image of God. Gives an extremely similar answer to Huckabee. Says faith and science should not be opposed to each other. More applause and at least one ‘whooo.’
7:46: McCain is asked about evolution, and says he agrees with what “Pastor Huckabee, Governor Huckabee” said. Says he leaves curricula up to school boards.
7:47: Romney is asked about people who refuse to vote for him because he is a Mormon. Says its a fair question, but that he shares values and beliefs. Skips over the unique elements of Mormonism that some people care about.
7:48: Paul says local and state officials should determine prayer and faith issues, not people in Washington. Says more difficult problems should be dealt with at the local level. More applause.
7:49: Giuliani is asked about climate change, if science is wrong. Says we have to accept view of the scientists. Says it should be addressed in a way to accomplish energy independence, says the program should be similar to the Apollo project, which Democrats and Republicans both led. Very Democratic-ish answer.
7:50: Romney is asked about a perceived alliance between big oil and Republicans. Romney first agrees with Giuliani. Romney says big oil should reinvest money they make in new refineries, which are very old. Says the real money is being made by oil countries, citing Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Wants ethanol, drilling in Anwar, and more.
7:52: McCain says more nuclear power should be used, citing Navy ships. He also says more alternative fuels usage is critical. Also cites ethanol.
7:53: Paul is asked about the energy bill with subsidies. Paul says profits are not the issue, but he objects to subsidization for Rsearch and development. Paul says the foreign policy is part of the problem, using foreign policy to support that need is a problem.
7:54: Gilmore is asked about it, and says profits are not a problem, but he also says that new answers are needed. He says a new plan that includes China and India is needed.
7:55: Paul is asked abou Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (DADT). Says looking at people as groups is flawed, should instead be looked at as individuals and should have rights as such. More applause. Paul-backers are out in force.
7:56: Huckabee says it is about conduct, not belief. Says the Code of Conduct covers it.
7:57: Giuliani is asked about foreign translators who were dismissed because of being gay. Giuliani says that its not time to deal with something so controversial. Giuliani says its a time of military transformation, that now is not the right time to change policy.
7:58: Romney says he thought at first the DADT would be silly, but he turned out wrong, that he agrees with Giuliani is not the time to change.
7:59: McCain says the army is fantastic and gets applause. He says the policy is working, and again tries to sound like Reagan with ‘my friends.’ No one thinks getting rid of DADT is a good idea.
8:00: Thompson is asked about how he would use George W. Bush. He says he would not send him to the UN. Waits for applause that does not come. Says he should be a spokesman on a lecture circuit to inspire public service.
8:01: Brownback says he would ask him, and says he would use him like George HW Bush was used overseas. Turns to an attack on Clinton’s stances on policies.
8:02: Tancredo says he’s been massively disappointed in President Bush. Says he would tell Bush to stay away, like Rove told him. Gets applause for it.
8:03: Huckabee says the GOP lost credibility, for not lowering taxes. Says ‘we bungled Katrina.’ Also cites indifference to immigration. Delayed applause.
8:04: Hunter is asked if pardoning Libby would be appropriate. Hunter says to look at the transcript. Hunter turns the issue to Ramos and Compean, whom he says he would pardon. He also says its time to rebuild the middle class.
8:05: Candidates are asked if they would pardon Libby. Mostly qualified not yet -without looking at it in detail, but leaning towards yes. Giuliani says he would look at it very closely and talks for a minute. Brownback says yes, Tancredo says yes.
That’s it with the first half.
8:13: And we’re back for what promises to be a relatively short second half. More promises of undecided-ness verified by CNN producers.
8:14: First question from a family member of a soldier who was killed in the line of action. Asks what people would do to bring troops home. Hunter thanks her for his service, and says his son enlisted in the Marines on Sept. 12, 2001, and that it is worth it. Says that a friendly Iraq which is not a base for terrorism is a key national interest. Calls for standing up Iraqi army.
8:16: Brownback says its not about leaving, its about getting situation to a certain point, again cites his proposal to be announced tomorrow.
8:17: McCain is asked if that is a good idea, and stands to make his answer. He says the war was badly mismanaged. Says the strategy now is good, so the sacrifice will not be in vain.
8:19: A question from a wife of a soldier, asking what we can do to stabilize Iraq. Paul says its time for Iraqis to take responsibility, saying the Army is not a police force. He wants to give incentives to build a country. He does not want to promote diplomacy through the barrel of the gun.
8:20: Giuliani stands in response as well and thanks the man who served. Says the war with terrorists began in the 70s, and that Iraq is a chance to get things right, and take on responsibility of nation building that Americans gave themselves. Giuliani completely avoids taking on Paul, a noticeable change from the FOX debate. Asks is Petraeus reports positively if it will be reported. Attack of media in the middle of the debate.
8:22: Gilmore says conservatives can be conservationists. Stands up to give answer. This trend is somewhat annoying to me, really takes away from the vibe. Says nuclear power can help the situation.
8:24: Tancredo cites TR as an example of conservatives being conservationists. Wants to create incentives for conservationist development.
8:25: Health care question, for someone who could buy drugs cheaper in Spain than in America. Giuliani says the model of health insurance in employer and government dominated, there should be a health insurance tax deduction, also says there should be savings account. Says health insurance should be like homeowner and car insurance; attacks Democrats proposals as socialized medicine. Gets applause.
8:27: Hunter is asked how to bring down cost of prescription drugs. Someone that lives with him apparently does that. Hunter points out that research and development is recovered in America, not the third world, and proposes a solution of allowing insurance to be bought across state lines.
8:29: A blogger asks if anyone will create a single payer system (Kucinich’s plan). Good topic, terrible question for this debate. Standing up, Thompson wants to make it a wellness system, and more education on topics like tobacco and obesity. Also wants to manage prevalent diseases, and making records electronic. Strong answer, gets some applause.
8:31: Romney is asked about his plan in Massachusetts. Says insurance is a problem, and everyone needs private insurance, not government taxes. Attacks Democrats, gets some applause.
8:32: Most pressing moral issue: Standing up, Huckabee says its the value of every single life. He says that pro-life people value all lives, not just those in womb. Says people treated as expendable is unacceptable. Contrasts that with Islamic Jihadist, who would use kids as suicide bombers.
8:34: Giuliani says he agrees, but talks about the necessity to change values in the Middle East like Reagan did about Communism. (not mentioning Putin, apparently). Says ideals come from God. Completely different answer than Huckabee linked by a sentence at the end of his answer.
8:36: Paul says it is about ending the preemptive war, and says its absurd to not rule out a preemptive nuclear strike on a country that has not attacked us.
8:37: Brownback says it is about life, and that it’s part of the party. Says party cannot nominate someone who is not pro-life. Says applies to people in poverty and Darfur as well. Blitzer asks if he would support Giuliani, he says he would support nominee, but does not expect Giuliani to win.
8:39: Question for Romney on immigration, who is asked about running Spanish ads and a website in Spanish. Romney says he is pro-legal immigrants, and will apeal to them in any way he can. Reiterates why he opposes imigration bill. Talks about need to focus on future. Sort of rambling answer in the second half.
8:41: Tancredo says he would not advertise in Spanish, and that English language is glue ans says bilingual countries do not work. Says McCain bill includes codification of Clinton policy on language as CNN cuts to McCain smirking.
8:42: McCain responds by saying “Muchos gracias.” He says 8-1 years for citizenship is a long road. He says the on the Vietnam war memorial and in Iraq and Afghanistan there are Hispanics and green card holders. Reminds that the immigrants enriched the country, and gets some of the loudest applause of the evening.
8:44: Question on how these candidates are different from the Bush administration. McCain says its all about spending and corruption which are linked. He specifically cites the Bridge to Nowhere, making Ted Stevens somewhere very angry. More applause. Promises to veto bills with earmarks.
8:45: Giuliani wants to bring accountability to Washington.
8:46: Romney, as the candidates are back to sitting down, calls for leading the world on technology.
8:46: Brownback says spending should be curtailed, and cancer should be cured with ten years.
8:47: Thompson says that spending should be changed, and run on new ideas.
8:47: Tancredo says that the president ran as a conservative and governed as a liberal.
8:48: Paul says that the president promised a humble foreign policy and no nation building and broke that promise.
8:48: Gilmore says principles: not to break on immigration, not to break on other crucial issues.
8:49: Hunter again cites his son serving, and says that family policy needs to be the focus.
8:50: Huckabee says its about identifying problems and then solving them.
8:50: Question about what it means to be an American. Tancredo says its about cutting ties with the past - politically and culturally (sounded like he said familial as well, but cut himself off). Tancredo calls for assimilation of the immigrants. Does not want to press one for English and two for any other language any more.
8:51: Huckabee says its about creating a sensible immigration process.
8:52: Giuliani says he is uncomfortable with Tancredo’s position on immigration. Cites Lincoln as saying being an American is about believing in freedom and the rule of law. Applause.
8:53: McCain says that what Tancredo says is ‘beyond the realm of my thinking.’ Says America should be the land of opportunity, cites Reagan’s ‘city on a hill.’
8:54: Gilmore is asked about appealing to independents. Gilmore says conservatives can appeal to independents, as he did when running for governor.
8:55: Hunter is asked if the Arnold example is a good idea. He says no. He goes on the attack on Romney and Giuliani on the assault ban weapon, Romney on the health care plan, and McCain on the immigration ban.
8:57: Romney cites Reagan winning Massachusetts. He says a three legged stool of strong military, education, and families is key.
8:57: Giuliani says nominating him is key. He says offense on terrorism and offense on a growing economy are crucial, attacking Democrats.
8:58: McCain says protecting the family and fighting extreme viloent Islam is key, and it is a struggle between good and evil. Says his resume qualifies him to lead.
Blitzer wraps it up, and that’s all she wrote.
9:03: I’m not going to cover every interview on the post-show, but McCain’s interview with Anderson Cooper is very strong on immigration. He’s optimistically saying that things are in the bill that people claim are not in it (a database, etc.) He’s striking a very good tone without being condescending or trivial.
9:09: As opposed to McCain, Giuliani’s interview with Larry King seems to be only about giving talking points, not answering meaningful questions or giving frank clarifications.
9:20: Romney is on with Larry King. He says he has experience bringing people together to solve problems. He also says he’s not getting tired of the Mormon question, but that it’s not really relevant. More talking points, and less of a frank conversation.
And that will really be the last word. Not because I don’t care about second tier candidates, but because I cannot watch CNN all evening. Sorry.
Sphere: Related ContentPoll Vaulting: McCain, Clinton Lead in Iowa; Romney Gains, Obama and Fred Thompson Fall
The American Research Group has released two new polls from Iowa for both Republicans and Democrats. I’m going to compare those results with the results form the May 2007 poll conducted by the Des Moines Register.
Starting with the Democrats:
| Candidate | ARG May 07 | DMR May 07 | ARG April 07 | ARG March 07 |
| Hillary Clinton | 31 % | 21 % | 23 % | 34 % |
| John Edwards | 25 % | 29 % | 27 % | 33 % |
| Barack Obama | 11 % | 23 % | 19 % | 16 % |
| Bill Richardson | 8 % | 10 % | 5 % | 1 % |
| Dennis Kucinich | 4 % | 2 % | 2 % | 1 % |
| Joe Biden | 3 % | 3 % | 6 % | 2 % |
| Chris Dodd | 2 % | – | 2 % | 1 % |
| Wesley Clark | 1 % | N/I | – | 2 % |
| Mike Gravel | 1 % | 1 % | – | – |
| Undecided | 14 % | 11 % | 16 % | 10 % |
A few interesting things that stand out. First is Barack Obama’s precipitous fall in the ARG poll. The margin of error is 4%, which could put him even behind Richardson. His campaign might have to ask if he is spending enough time there, getting to know enough insiders to get a caucus victory. John Edwards is trending the wrong way in Iowa (even after the withdrawal of Tom Vilsack, which Edwards had obviously hoped to use as a boost), but Edwards still remains a clear number two overall in recent polls. The Des Moines Register poll gives Clinton something to worry about, but she’s still ahead. Richardson clearly is breaking from the second tier twoards the first tier. Whether he has enough gas in the tank to get to the top tier is still a question that needs to be answered. The lower tier really is not doing anything that notable.
I’m interested in the ARG poll though - every month they seem to have one candidate really fall in the polls, only to rebound the next month. In April it was Clinton. In May it is Obama - there hasn’t been any type of indication that Obama’s support is this low. So until there is some confirmation of that, take it with a grain of salt.
Now, the Republicans:
| Candidate | ARG May 07 | DMR May 07 | ARG April 07 | ARG March 07 |
| John McCain | 25 % | 18 % | 26 % | 29 % |
| Rudy Giuliani | 23 % | 17 % | 19 % | 29 % |
| Mitt Romney | 16 % | 30 % | 14 % | 10 % |
| Newt Gingrich | 8 % | N/I | 8 % | 7 % |
| Fred Thompson | 6 % | N/I | 13 % | 12 % |
| Sam Brownback | 3 % | 5 % | 1 % | – |
| Tom Tancredo | 2 % | 4 % | 2 % | 1 % |
| Chuck Hagel | 2 % | N/I | 1 % | 1 % |
| Tommy Thompson | 2 % | 7 % | 1 % | 1 % |
| Jim Gilmore | 1 % | 1 % | 1 % | – |
| Duncan Hunter | – | 1 % | – | – |
| John Cox | N/I | 1 % | N/I | N/I |
| Ron Paul | – | – | – | – |
| Undecided | 10 % | 12 % | 12 % | 11 % |
Looking at the Republican results, one thing that jumps out is Fred Thompson starting to drop before he even gets into the race. But like Obama above, it’s hard to judge the validity of these results without independent confirmation; and the Des Moines Register poll did not include potential candidates like Thompson or Gingrich.
Among the top group, it’s clear that Mitt Romney is the one with all the momentum. Giuliani seems to have weathered the storm, as he is no longer bottoming out, but he’s not even where he was a mere few months before. Romney, on the other hand, keeps trending up. The30% of the Des Moines poll is not repeated once Thompson and Gingrich are included, but he’s still growing. John McCain seems to be losing a little ground, but retaining most of his supporters in the state that he skipped in 1999.
On the lower tier, the hope for the lower tier that the Des Moines poll gave - bumps for Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo - seems to be erased in the ARG poll. I have to wonder if the now imminent entry of Fred Thompson into the race spells the end for this lower tier. Not only do they have to distinguish themselves from the top tier, they also have to distinguish themselves from each other. I imagine that the Republican debate on Tuesday will be a key last time for that to happen; if not, it will certainly be the Iowa Straw Poll in August.
There’s reasons to take these polls with grains of salt - for instance there’s reasons to both include and exclude declared candidates like Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich - but it’s worth keeping in mind exactly who these polls include while considering what they mean. For instance, Al Gore was not included in any of the Iowa polls.
Sphere: Related Content
