Jim Gilmore: Not a Better Senate Candidate Than Presidential One

Mark Warner has raised more than 9 times as much as Jim Gilmore so far in the Virginia Senate race and has more than 21 times what Gilmore has in the bank:

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gimore (R), who is seeking the Senate seat of the retiring Sen. John Warner (R), is being crushed by his Democratic opponent, and former Virginia governor Mark Warner, on the fundraising front. This according to the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Gilmore reported raising just $402,000 in the first quarter, according to his first quarter 2008 giling with the FEC, bringing his total raised to just over $753,000 since he jumped into the campaign last November. Gilmore has $208,000 in cash-on-hand.

Mark Warner, on the other hand raised $2.52 million in the first quarter, according to his FEC reports. The Warner for Senate committee reported cash-on-hand of $4.38 million. Warner has raised more than $6.3 million overall since entering the race.

We’ll be looking more at Senate races this summer once the primaries are over, but this underscores the race in Virginia, which will be a crucial swing state likely this fall in the Presidential race. (I’m not optimistic about Gilmore Republicans).

With both Jim Webb and Mark Warner rumored as VP candidates as well, this race will be something to watch.

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Jim Gilmore Withdraws Bid For Republican Presidential Nomination

I guess Jim Gilmore just couldn’t see himself remaining in the race for the Republican nomination for president any longer.

Official statement from Gilmore’s website:

I am today withdrawing my candidacy for the Republican nomination for President. It has been a positive and rewarding experience for me, for my family, and for my supporters.

It has become apparent to me that the combination of my late start, and the front loaded nature of the primary schedule, have made it impractical to continue to pursue this path towards further public service.

I am proud of the fact that my campaign focused on the issues, worked hard to block amnesty for illegal immigrants, brought attention to the need to protect private property rights, and called for a new path in Iraq that would provide our valiant military men and women with a more clearly defined and achievable mission.

However, I have come to believe that it takes more than a positive vision for our nation’s future to successfully compete for the Presidency. I believe that it takes years of preparation to put in place both the political and financial infrastructure to contest what now amounts to a one-day national primary in February.

In the coming weeks and months, I intend to remain active in the Republican Party and in the public debate. I will be forming a state political action committee to assist Republican candidates in the General Assembly. Additionally, I will be actively looking for other opportunities to continue in public service in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

I’m not surprised by the news. The system isn’t all to blame, it’s important to keep in mind that Gilmore never really got his campaign operation off the ground and was not able to raise enough money to be competitive (approximately $170,000 in the first quarter and $211,000 in the second quarter). In a recent interview with the Politico’s Mike Allen, Gilmore mentioned that he has been approached about running for Virginia’s Governor’s office, again, or running for the Senate if Jim Warner (R-VA) decides not to seek reelection; Jim Gilmore said that he is considering both possibilities.

We saw the writing on the wall about Gilmore’s withdrawal when we discussed his eye surgery earlier this month.

[Photo Credit: Flickr user stgermh]

Related at 2008Central.net:

• Jim Gilmore Has Eye Surgery: Does Anyone Care? (July 2, 2007)

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Petition: Equitable Time For All Candidates Participating In CNN/YouTube Debates

We’ve covered all the presidential debates so far and something that has always frustrated us is the fact that there is such a huge disparity between in the amount of time that the individual candidates receive.  In some debates some candidates have received 3 times as much speaking time their opponents in the same debate!

Accordingly, we’ve decided to take action and have created a petition that we plan on delivering to CNN and YouTube prior to the first debate (which is being held on July 23, 2007).  The petition simply calls for them to reduce the time disparity by pledging to provide equitable time to all participating candidates.

Enough is enough.  Together we can maximize the utility of these debates by demanding that all candidates be allowed to express their viewpoints in a somewhat comparable way. 

Read the petition here.
Don’t want to read it and just want to sign? Go here.

Please spread the word about this effort to ehance presidential debates. 

Text of the petition: Read more

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Around The World - What They’re Saying About The U.S. Presidential Election (07/07/07)

*Today, we bring you a new addition to 2008Central.net. Each week we’ll roundup some interesting stories about the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election from around the world. Please note that because this is the first time we’re doing this, it may include stories from weeks preceding this one.

Iran

• The Clintons in race for presidency (PressTV, 7/3/07) - They’re buying the inevitability factor of Hillary Clinton:

Hillary’s ranking nationally, however, has given her an aura of invincibility.

• Clinton, Richardson urge Bush to continue talks with Iran (Tehran Times, 6/30/07)
• Obama foreshadows a ‘quiet riot’ (PresTV, 6/6/07) - An excerpt:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama predicts a “quiet riot” emerging out of national indifference toward poor black neighborhoods.

Israel

• The Giuliani road show finds a receptive Jewish crowd (Haretz, 6/27/07)

Kuwait

• The unpardonable nature of Washington politics (Kuwait Times, 7/4/07) - Analysis of Bush’s commutation of Libby’s sentence and its relation to the election. An excerpt:

What about all the Republican politicians who defied public sentiment and insisted that President Bill Clinton be impeached for lying under oath about his affair with Monica Lewinsky? Many of them now minimize Libby’s perjury.

What about all those Democrats who thought public shame was punishment enough for Clinton lying under oath, basically the position adopted today by Libby’s supporters? Many of those Democrats now think Libby should go to jail for his perjury.

Scotland

• Democrats fill war chests as the money backs new presidency (The Scotsman, 7/5/07) -Analysis of second quarter 2007 fundraising. An excerpt:

The increasingly unpopular and apparently intractable war in Iraq and the failure of George Bush, the president, to make much headway with his domestic agenda has made the Democrats’ nominee - whoever he or she is - the favourite to win the presidency next November.

Region: Africa

• Republicans in disarray as they search for a saviour [sic] (Mail & Guardian Online, 07/01/07) - Interesting perspective on the current state of the election, pretty much talks about all the major players at some point:

The [Republican] party is in turmoil and each campaign has been dogged by scandals, infighting and arguments.

Just a week ago, Giuliani’s problems were magnified when a state chairperson of his presidential campaign, Thomas Ravenel, was indicted on charges of cocaine dealing. But it hardly had Giuliani’s rivals celebrating. Arizona Senator John McCain is sinking in the polls, thanks to his support for the Iraq war. And former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has been derided as a flip-flopper who changes his views to suit circumstances.

All this is in contrast to the Democrats, whose top candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards — are running professional operations. Some experts predict a Democratic win, no matter who the Republicans choose.

Region: Middle East/Gulf

• Immigration scaremongering (Gulf News, 7/4/07) - Discusses the failure of immigration reform and its relation to presidential election:

Unfortunately, scaremongering - particularly scaremongering that touches on the hot-button issues of race and terror - appears to be a major element of a number of Republican presidential campaigns, especially Giuliani’s. The theory appears to be that getting enough people sufficiently frightened will ensure that they vote GOP

If I come across any other good articles this weekend, I’ll be sure to update this post…

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Jim Gilmore Has Eye Surgery: Does Anyone Care?

The blog for Jim Gilmore’s campaign announced that Gilmore had surgery on Friday:

The presidential campaign of former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore announced today that Gilmore received emergency eye surgery Friday to repair a partially detached retina in his right eye.

The surgery, which was performed by Dr. Juan Astruc, Jr. at the Retina Institute of Virginia in Richmond was successful and Gilmore is currently recuperating at home in Richmond. “The emergency surgery went well and the Governor’s prognosis is good,” Dr. Astruc said Monday.

Gilmore spokesman Dick Leggitt said doctors had restricted Gilmore’s travels for an indefinite period of time and the campaign has cancelled its scheduled events for at least the next seven days. “He is very anxious to get back to campaigning, but for the moment that is not possible,” Leggitt said.

The bigger question: Does anyone care? He’d already backed out of the Iowa Straw Poll, and even if he were running for a cabinet post, it would be hard to see a favorable scenario unfolding for him.

If I was a cynic, I would ask if this explains why Gilmore can’t see how hopeless his campaign is.

That’s if I were a cynic.

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Press Released: Week of June 24 - July 1

Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics. Calendar press releases will not be covered.

Barack Obama

Obama and Sen. Lugar are co-sponsoring an initiative on non-proliferation.

Obama issued a statement on the failed immigration legislation.

Obama issued a statement on the Senate resolution regarding Zimbabwe.

The veterans affairs apprpriations legislation contains elements Obama proposed.

Obama issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

Obama commented on the Middle Eastern summit earlier this week.

Obama issued a statement on stalled ethics reform.

Obama issued a statement on VP Cheney.

Bill Richardson

Richardson issued a statement regarding his support in the Latino community.

Richardson issued a statement regarding theunrest in Iran and how it ought affect American policy.

Richardson issued a statement by Refugees International on Darfur.

Richardson added staff in New Hampshire.

Richardson issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Richardson gave a speech to the Center for National Policy on his vision for foreign policy.

Richardson issued a press release touting that he had broken into the top tier.

Richardson issued a release regarding the veto threat by Pres. Bush regarding the registry in the DC apprpriations bill that would include same-sex couples.

Richardson touted his A grade from New Mexico conservation voters.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd defended the Family and Medical Leave Act he wrote in a letter to Sec. Chao.

Dodd commended the 2007 Presidential scholars for taking a stand against torture.

Dodd issued a statement on the veto threat of Pres. Bush over a registry in DC that would include same-sex couples.

Dodd issued a statement on the SCOTUS diversity ruling.

Dodd’s Youtube spotlight generated significant attention.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich appeared on the Late Show, and posted video on his website.

Michael Moore endorsed Kucinich’s health care plan.

Kucinich touted his record of voting in the House.

Kucinich told the US Conference of Mayors that cities have been pushed aside and it is time to make them the ‘heart of America.’

Hillary Clinton

Clinton received endorsements from a Hispanic group; also she received endorsements in Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, California (1, 2), Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Florida.

Clinton is focusing on fixing student loans.

Clinton announced a group of LGBT supporters.

Clinton’s statement on the SCOTUS desegregation case.

Text of the keynote address Clinton gave this week at the Center for a New American Security. Worth a read for her view on foreign policy.

Clinton issued a comment regarding the hearing on air quality on 9/11.

Clinton is co-sponsoring a bill aimed at saving the bee population in America.

Clinton issued a statement on the detention of Iranian-Americans in Iran.

Clinton met with leaders from the Northern Ireland government.

A health IT bill received committee approval in the Senate; a patent bill Clinton is co-sponsoring did the same.

Clinton issued a statement about a Senate bill to support democracy and human rights in Zimbabwe.

Clinton issued a statement regarding the immigration bill.

Joe Biden

Biden issued a statement regarding the SCOTUS school diversity ruling.

Resolution sponsored by Biden that would pay for US dues to UN peacekeeping operations passed committee.

Biden introduced legislation that would create a legal distinction between crack and powder cocaine. He said the Hatch proposal would not go far enough.

Biden issued a statement regarding the Employee Free Choice Act.

Biden introduced legislation to preserve the Underground Railroad.

Biden’s proposal for Iraq continues to gain support.

John Edwards

Edwards launched his first ad in New Hampshire.

Edwards commented on the failure of the Employee Free Choice Act in the Senate.

Edwards held house parties across the country this week.

Edwards received endorsements from African-American and Latino leaders.

Edwards is expanding his operations in New Hampshire.

Edwards issued statements on the direction of the Supreme Court in general, and one specifically about the school diversity decision.

Duncan Hunter

Hunter issued a statement on the immigration bill, after earlier in the week saying that a vote for it would be a vote for amnesty.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Gilmore issued a statement regarding Sen. Lugar saying it was time to withdraw from Iraq.

John McCain

McCain issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

McCain issued a statement on the failed immigration bill.

McCain issued a press release about a bill he is sponsoring which would solidify the repeal of the fairness doctrine.

McCain announced endorsements and campaign additions in New Hampshire (1, 2, and 3), Iowa, and South Carolina.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee is putting the audio of his blogger conference call on his website.

Mitt Romney

Romney issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Romney announced endorsements in Michigan and Washington.

Romney’s campaign called to solicit support this week.

Ron Paul

Paul wrote an article about the stem cell debate missing the point, it should be about the rights of taxpayers, and nothing else.

Paul held a big event in Iowa opposite the presidential forum, and drew more people than the entire forum.

Paul wrote that he was happy the immigration bill failed in the Senate.

Paul’s website is the most popular among all Repulican websites.

The Paul campaign is raising money to pay for their new national headquarters in Arlington.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani announced endorsements and campaign additions in California, South Carolina, Florida, and Iowa.

Giuliani issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Giuliani issued a statement regarding the ending term of PM Tony Blair.

Sam Brownback

Brownback criticized Romney’s change in stances on agriculture; with Brownback voting multiple ways on the immigration bill, as I have noted, it seems this might backfire if Brownback is not careful.

Brownback issued a release touting his book, which will be released this week.

Brownback wrote a letter to the White House calling on Pres. Bush to intensify the fight against Islamic extremism.

Brownback commented on his votes on appropriations bills, including some earmarks he proposed for Kansas, and his vote against the foreign aid bill “due to its funding of programs which weaken pro-life policy.”

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo issued a press release celebrating the failure of the immigration bill; he had issued a press release earlier in the week that criticized the Senate for bringing the bill up for debate. Additionally, Tancredo is going to send produce to Sec. Chertoff for suggesting that the failure of the bill is causing food shortages.

Tancredo later in the week called for Ron Paul to be included in the Iowa presidential forum.

Tommy Thompson

Thompson won the Linn County straw poll. I am having difficulty finding details on how many participated in the poll. Here are the percentage results.

Mike Bloomberg

Bloomberg issued a press release about the bond rating for the city and how it is ‘highest rating the City has ever achieved’ and also touts his fiscal management. Possibly innocuous, but with rumors of him running and with his predecessor running, it reads like it might mean something more.

Bloomberg gave a speech about the improving NYC schools.

Mayors against Illegal Guns, the group led by Bloomberg, hailed the removal of the Tiar amendment in the Appropriations bill, saying:

The Tiahrt Amendment, a version of which has been inserted into the Department of Justice appropriations bill each year since Fiscal Year 2003, places broad restrictions on the use of information the ATF collects on guns used in crimes, called trace data. The Tiahrt Amendment also prevents local governments and police from accessing federal crime gun trace data from areas outside their immediate geographic jurisdiction; prevents cities from use of trace data in state and local civil enforcement actions, including gun license revocations; and prevents the ATF from publishing reports that use crime gun trace data to analyze nationwide gun trafficking patterns.

Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; e.g., if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.

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Policy Breakdown: Hunter Argues for Keeping Guantanamo Open

While closing Guantanamo has been a popular topic ever since Colin Powell said it should be closed on Meet the Press, Duncan Hunter (among other Republicans) is arguing to keep it open.

Hunter said regarding Guantanamo:

“Once these detainees are brought onto U.S. soil, the detainees may acquire minimal rights under the Constitution, in particular, the right to habeas corpus. This change in status will inevitably spawn a completely new round of litigation,” Hunter said in a statement.

“While I believe the Combatant Status Review Tribunals that all detainees at Guantanamo receive satisfy those rights, it would take years of further litigation to finally reach that result,” the congressman said. “Thus, the military commission process would be stalled for the foreseeable future, and none of the detainees at Guantanamo would be brought to justice.”

“Some would like this result; they would prefer to see terrorists tried under our federal criminal justice system. This is a false choice,” Hunter said.

“We cannot try terrorists for war crimes if it requires our soldiers to read terrorists Miranda rights or take a battalion of lawyers onto the battlefield,” he said. “Military commissions are crucial because they are crafted for the conduct of war by providing procedures flexible enough to account for the constraints and conditions of the battlefield.”

Thus far, all Democratic candidates and Republican candidates Ron Paul and John McCain have called for Guantanamo to be closed, including Fred Thompson who has yet to officially declare.

[Photo Credit: Flickr user Rob Bluey]

Related at 2008 Central:

Colin Powell Advising Barack Obama

Live Blog Of CNN Democratic Debate In New Hampshire (6/3/07)

Live Blog of Second Republican Debate

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Press Released: Week of June 18-24

Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics.

Barack Obama

In what is probably the most important release this week, Obama listed all of the earmarks he requested for this years budget, challenging others to do the same. Ipol already has a good write-up of it here.

Obama released a statement on democratic activist Aung San Suee, who is imprisoned in Burma.

Obama released a statement on clean burning coal, which he said still needed more research before it could be used safely in lieu of the ‘climate crisis.’ He issued another release later in the week saying the energy bill was a “modest first step” towards addressing the crisis.

Obama called for the Employee Free Choice Act to be passed. His campaign issued a statement of his about Nevada Culinary Workers Union settling their contract with Harrah’s.

Obama released a statement that praised The Higher Education Access Act for taking his recommendations, including recommendations to better fund primarily black colleges.

Obama issued a release about the strong ethics reforms he is pushing with Russ Feingold. This was a day before he made the announcement of the strict ethics reforms he would institute if elected President.

Obama joined with Chuck Hagel and Sherrod Brown to sponsor a bill that would improve services for blind veterans.

The Obama campaign announced the participants in the Dinner with Barack.

Bill Richardson

Richardson issued a statement on the actions of the New Mexico Senators regarding the Energy Bill.

Richardson issued a statement on Gay Lesbian Bisexual & Transgender Pride Month.

Richardson issued some press releases honoring the South Carolina firefighters who died.

Richardson said he was pleased the North Koreans have so far kept the promises they made to him when he visited in April.

Richardson called for all troops to be brought home from Iraq.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd hailed the unanimous passage of Head Start funding.

Dodd issued a press release regarding his introduction of legislation to further help the Gulf Coast recover from Katrina.

Dodd and Sen. Shelby introduced legislation to attempt to fix the currency crisis with China.

Dodd teamed with Ted Stevens tto introduce a bill that would give 8 weeks of paid leave for “workers needing time off due to the birth or adoption of a child, to care for a child, spouse or parent with a serious illness or to care for their own serious illness.”

Dodd is upset that Sen. Coburn put a hold on a bill with broad bipartisan support that would provide additional funding for civil rights crimes still unsolved. He wrote an op-ed with Rep. John Lews this week as well.

Dodd issued a release calling for greater pressure to be put on Sudan to stop the genocide in Darfur.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich was upset that Congress voted Iran in violation of the 1948 Convention on Genocide because of Ahmadinejad’s comments that Israel must be destroyed; he said Ahmadinejad’s comments were similar to what Pres. Bush has said on Iran and Iraq.

Kucinich and Rep. Waxman asked the SEC to slow down the offering of Blackstone LP.

Kucinich touted that he and Michael Moore were on the same page regarding health care. He issued a separate release of Moore endorsing his health care plan.

Kucinich issued a release criticizing the laxing of labor laws in New Orleans following Katrina.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton received endorsements this week in New York, New Jersey, California, Arkansas, Washington, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan.

Clinton called for the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Clinton held a tree planting ceremony to symbolize the need for alternative energy in western New York.

Clinton called on the Bush administration to provide answers as to the air quality after 9/11.

Clinton called on the Dept. of Homeland Security to make the northern border more secure.

Clinton wrote her NY constituents a letter regarding her position on the Iraq war.

Clinton was pleased at th reforms of student loans passed by the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.

Clinton is among the co-sponsors of a bipartisian health IT bill.

Joe Biden

Biden also urged passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Biden announced support in New Hampshire, and the National Coordinator of Veterans for Biden.

Biden issued a scathing response to an anonymous attack by the Obama camp on his appearance at the funeral of the SC firefighters.

Biden introduced a bill that would address the Iraqi Refugee crisis.

Biden called for a new foreign policy strategy for dealing with Russia.

Biden issued a press release regarding National Clean Beaches Week.

John Edwards

Edwards issued a statement on Gen. Petraeus’s comments on Iraq.

Edwards urged passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Edwards commented on the death of the South Carolina firefighters.

Edwards issued a statement reagarding the report of the Army Corps of Engineers report on New Orleans.

As part of his renewed campaign to ‘build one America’, Edwards promised to take on abusive lenders and to reduce debt.

Duncan Hunter

Like Barack Obama, Hunter also released a list of the earmarks he proposed in the current Appropriations bill, and deserves credit for that.

Hunter criticized the cross-border trucking program with Mexico.

Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson has a blog on his official site where commentaries he gives elsewhere are often cross posted.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore wrote a letter to President Bush suggesting a middle ground between the status quo and withdrawal on Iraq.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee received an endorsement from the Home School Legal Defense Association.

Mitt Romney

Romney announced endorsements in Massachusetts, Nevada, Iowa, and Montana.

Romney unveiled his ‘Global Initiative For Values And Freedom’ which focuses on broad strategies to combat the jihadist threat.

Romney launched a new TV ad.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich cited 9/11 Commission report in touting he was right in that several 9/11 hijackers were in the US illegally.

Ron Paul

Paul had a column up this week about the inevitable failure of earmarks i the appropriations bill that waste billions of dollars.

Paul issued a press release regarding his support for a wall and opposition to amnesty or any benefits for illegal immigrants.

The Paul campaign is upset regarding Paul’s exclusion from a candidate forum in Iowa sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief and Iowa Christian Alliance.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani issued a press release regarding the air quality at Ground Zero, quoting numerous sources indicating the air was safe.

Giuliani’s campaign issued a statement touting their position in the race; we discussed this a bit during this week’s podcast.

Giuliani is in favor of making all earmark requests public. This is what Hunter and Obama have done already. He issued a second release on the topic earlier in the week, and a statement by Steve Forbes to the same effect.

Giuliani announced endorsements in Florida, New York, and a replacement of his campaign chairman in South Carolina, who is taking over for Mark Ravenal, about whom the campaign denied knowing any information..

Giuliani announced his economic policy board.

Giuliani issued a statement on Bush’s nomination of Jim Nussle as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Sam Brownback

Brownback commemorated World Refugee Day.

Brownback opened his office in Ames at the conclusion of his bus tour, which he called a big success.

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo touted an amendment the House passed that would enhace ties between Taiwan and America.

Tancredo’s campaign distributed a pledge against amnesty to members of Congress and urged them to sign it.

Mike Bloomberg

Text of the speech of Mike Bloomberg at the “Ceasefire! Bridging The Political Divide” conference.

This is the press release Bloomberg issued after changing his political affiliation to independent.

Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (06/24/07)

This week’s podcast covers…

• Mike Bloomberg departing the GOP
• Fred Thompson to announce soon?
• John McCain and Mitt Romney’s political scuffle
• Hillary Clinton booed at the Take Back America Conference: What’s it mean?
• 2008Central.net’s John Whitehouse attended the “Generation Barack Obama” event in New York City on June 22, 2007. What were his impressions?
• Despite a rough couple of weeks, Rudy Giuliani remains the leader of the pack
• Notes on the second tier
• A look ahead to the close of the second fundraising quarter of 2007 and the significance of primary date movement in Floria and New Jersey
• And more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Blog Buzz Watch (06/17/07-06/23/07)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 1:30 PM 06/17/07 through 1:30PM 06/23/07…

Democrats

 

 Republicans

 

Head To Head

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Poll Vaulting Special: Getting Bi-Poll-ar

The recent Mason Dixon poll with Obama ahead of Clinton in South Carolina and McCain in fourth place in the state at 7% has gotten a lot of press. But evidence seems to be emerging that it’s not a credible poll.

First, there is just simple instinct. While McCain may have lost some support with immigration becoming a more visible issue than Iraq and the War on Terror in the past couple weeks, there’s been no indication of a drastic slide elsewhere - either in other polls or in other states. It’s the same with Obama: there’s no indication of him yet surpassing Clinton, who has not really made a single mistake in the campaign of any consequence. The point being these are clearly outlier results.

Secondly, the company that released the poll, Mason Dixon polling, has a history of skewed results. In 1998, the company released two separate polls for the Governor’s race in the state within a day of each other, with different results. [Thanks to Palmetto Scoop for doing the research; I recommend their write-up on Mason-Dixon]

Thirdly, anecdotel evidence suggests otherwise. Now, no one disputes the McCain campaign is having serious problems relating the candidate the way he did in 1999; that much is obvious. He’s also having problems raising as much money as he’s promised, even though he’s fundraising at a break neck pace, with multiple fundraisers a day, with rarely a day off. But someone who has 7% in polls does not get messages from the Speaker of the state House being sent out trying to fundraise. SC House Speaker Bobby Harrell said the following on McCain in a recorded message:

I have the distinct honor to serve as Senator McCain’s state co-chairman in South Carolina, and I am proud to say he is well-positioned for victory in the Palmetto State. He’s assembled an unsurpassed team of supporters. He’s built a strong grassroots organization of highly-motivated volunteers, and John McCain is leading the way in every major South Carolina poll.
  Senator McCain is hard at work on the campaign trail day-in and day-out. His straight talk message is hitting home with voters from the Grand Strand to the Upstate, from the Pee Dee to the Low-Country. And it’s your financial support that gives the campaign resources necessary for success.
  As the campaign heads into the crucial summer months and with a key June 30th fundraising deadline fast-approaching, I have a favor to ask of you.
  If you haven’t done so already, I urge you to consider making a commitment to common sense conservatism. If you are already on-board, let me thank you for your support and ask that you reaffirm your commitment today.
  Can I and John McCain count on you to make a contribution of $2,300, $1,000, $500, $50 or even $25 to give the campaign the firepower it needs?

Lastly, polls directly after and before this poll seem to point otherwise. I’m specifically referring to the American Rearch Group South Carolina polls for Republicans and Democrats taken in late May, the Winthrop / ETV South Carolina poll taken in the second half of May, and national polls taken in June. National polls in June include the Cook Political/RT Strategies national omnibus poll, the American Research Group poll, and the USA Today / Gallup poll. Here’s a comparison of all of those results in a chart; it’s easy to see which one is the outlier. (Note: the Winthrop /ETV Poll separated independents and Republicans into separate results. I’m including only Republican voters; McCain was chosen by 9.1% of independent voters, which was second among Republicans to Giuliani’s 12.3%)

Candidate	SC ARG May	SC WETV May	SC Mas-Dix	Nat Cook	Nat ARG	Nat Gallup
Rudy Giuliani	23 %	18.6 %	21 %	23 %	24 %	28%
John McCain	32 %	14.4 %	7 %	20 %	20 %	18 %
Fred Thompson	13 %	6.4 %	25 %	12 %	15 %	19 %
Mitt Romney	10 %	11.7 %	11 %	8 %	10 %	7 %
Newt Gingrich	6 %	3.4 %	unknown	5 %	12 %	7 %
Mike Huckabee	1 %	0.8 %	5 %	2 %	1 %	< 3 %
Sam Brownback	1 %	1.5 %	unknown	1 %	1 %	< 3 %
Duncan Hunter	1 %	0.8 %	unknown	1 %	1 %	< 3 %
Ron Paul	0 %	0.8 %	unknown	1 %	1 %	< 3 %
Tom Tancredo	1 %	0.8 %	unknown	0 %	1 %	< 3 %
Tommy Thompson	1 %	0.8 %	unknown	1 %	1 %	< 3 %
Jim Gilmore	1 %	0.8 %	unknown	1 %	1 %	< 3 %
Undecided	11 %	29.9 %	28 %	22 %	11 %	unknown

There’s no doubt McCain seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But one poll with a shady history does not mean his campaign is dead quite yet. We’ll stay on the lookout for more information in the meantime.

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