Are Republicans Costing McCain The Election?

Answer: Not really, but they’re not helping.

Nate Silver dug up this fascinating data; I’m attaching his analysis as well because it’s so on point:

Support within own party:
Pollster             DEMS       GOP
Rasmussen            86         87
IBD-TIPP             88         83
Research 2000        87         89
ABC/Post             91         84
Zogby                87         84
Battleground         89         85

AVERAGE              88.0       85.3

2004 Exit Poll       89         93
2000 Exit Poll       86         91

Among Democrats, Barack Obama is now winning 88 percent support, comparable to John Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000. And there are a couple of points’ worth of undecideds left in there, so it’s possible that Obama could scrape up against the 90 percent number on election day.

By contrast, John McCain is winning the support of just 85.3 percent of Republicans, well down from Bush’s 93 percent in 2004 and 91 percent in 2000. There are some undecideds in there as well, so his numbers should improve some, but McCain is likely to underperform Bush by several points.

This is really the key theme of the whole post-Lehman Obama surge. Between his more populist talking points on the economy, the backlash to McCain’s attacks, and — I’m guessing here — a deep level of antipathy among Democrats toward Sarah Palin (Battleground has her favorability ratings at 12/78 among Dems), Obama has really brought the Democratic base home. By contrast, Obama’s support among independents varies quite significantly from poll to poll, ranging from essentially even in the Rasmussen tracker to a +15 in Zogby.

 

These numbers are just stunning. There’s two different ways to look at this for Republicans: The way that Silver portrays, that the party is running too far to the right in the current economic conditions to hold the party together. The converse lesson, and the one I suspect will become conventional wisdom in most conservative circles, is that the party did not run far enough to the right, or hard enough: if only had McCain taken a principled stand against the bailout  on conservative  grounds, maybe he would have had a chance. (Look for Newt Gingrich to especially drive that ppoint hard in Iowa over the next 36-40 months.) The best evidence of this is House Republicans, who are widely known to be wildly against the bailout. 

I think Silver is right and that hypothetical argument is wrong, though. Palin’s approval ratings are in the tank. Had McCain made a choice like Lieberman, his base would have yelled loudly at him but ultiately still voted for him, given the alternative. Obama has truly earned the wrath of Republicans. Had McCain picked a candidate that brought credibility among moderate Republicans and indepdents, he still might be in this. Picking Palin at the end of the day was about a base election. If McCain could run a moderate campaign based on personality and Palin could rally the base, that sort of campaign may have been successful. But the financial crisis actually forced the election to be about issues, and it collapsed the carefully constructed House of Cards. Furthermore, Sarah Palin never had a chance of winning all the most dead end Hillary Clinton supporters. Silver makes the accurate point that it gave a lightning rod for Democrats to rally against. If anything else, it also forced Hillary Clinton out on the trail even more for Obama, which has really helped Obama consolidate support. (And erased any suggestion that she would cost Obama the campaign.)

In short, I think the leftward drift of independents would have probably cost McCain the election no matter what. But the financial crisis plus Sarah Palin will probably produce a landslide.

Brett Farve throws a lot of touchdown passes by being reckless. But he also throws a lot of interceptions.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/07/07)

This podcast covers 1) preliminary fundraising figures, 2) the Ron Paul Effect, 3) Democratic National Committee and issues with Florida, Michigan and South Carolina, 4) Weekly Round Up.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Saturday Afternoon Catch Up (9/29/07)

Before getting into some serious blogging, here’s a crib sheet on what’s been happening in the ‘08 field:

• Following news that Newt Gingrich would enter the race if he could get $30 million in pledges by October 21, 2007, Gingrich officially stated today that he would not be entering the race after all.  Why? Because the 3 week pledge drive would present legal problems for his non-profit group, American Solutions for Winning the Future.  We’ll try to connect with Steven Parkhurst over at DraftNewt.org this week to get their reaction.
• Democratic candidate, John Edwards, has decided to opt in to the public financing system.  We’ll take a closer look at this decision in a later post, but for your information now…(1) Entering the public finance system places significant spending restrictions on a candidate…(2) Ambinder looks at the pros and cons of this decision.
• Transcript of MSNBC’s Democratic Debate in New Hampshire hosted by Tim Russert.  We’ll have more on this later, since it was certainly a noteworthy debate.
• Michelle Obama stirs things up when she says that if Barack Obama doesn’t win Iowa, then “it’s just a dream.” Was I the only person who thought of Ralph Cramden upon hearing this? ‘One of these days, Michelle…bang…ZOOM…to the moon!’
• Mike Huckabee tackled the Bush Administration’s foreign policy in an attempt to substantially distinguish himself from his primary rivals.  Huckabee concluded that “this administration’s bunker mentality has been counterproductive both at home and abroad.”
• Bill Richardson launched a new website that details his plan to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq and promises not to leave any residual forces.  Chris Dodd takes issue with the details.
• If Iowa was your answer to the question “What state will decide who gets their Republican convention delegates first?” then you would be wrong.  It’s Wyoming (for now) and they will make the decision on January 5, 2008.

Anymore links you’d like to see?  Send them along (tips).

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Poll Vaulting: A Look at Michigan

Now that the Michigan Senate gave the go-ahead to have the primary on Jan. 15, the bill has to be reconciled with the State House bill that passed before Gov. Granholm signs it. It’s important to note that the bill would not only move the primary up, but it would change the primary from a caucus to an actual primary election. Marc Ambinder has a great post up on what that means:

Party-run caucuses — or “Firehouse primaries,” as they’re called, are enormously beneficial to the state party because they serve as a dress rehearsal for election day get-out-the-vote activities and provide an easy way for the party to enhance its voter lists. They’re also easy to control — and party interest groups, like Michigan’s extremely powerful United Auto Workers union, tend to exert an outsized influence on the outcome. It comes as no surprise that UAW, a union which is said to be on the verge of endorsing Sen. John Edwards, also opposes a state-run primary. (The State Dems, per published reports, are waiting to see what the bill says before they react. The State Republicans are on board with Granholm and the legislature.)

On the other side of this equation is Gov. Granholm, who Edwards factions in the state believe is acting at the beheast of Sen. Hillary Clinton. The theory is that it would be much easier for Clinton to win a primary beauty contest than a caucus, which would require organization — read: labor, read: the UAW. (Actually, labor power in Michigan is concentrated in the UAW and in the National Education Association, which probably won’t endorse.)

The caucus to primary shift, plus the heavy concentration of unions in the state, makes polls fairly useless on the Democratic side. Adding to that fact is that there has only been two polls done in Michigan since May, and in the most recent poll, non-candidate Al Gore actually received the most support. Otherwise, it appears that Clinton has a safe lead on Obama and Edwards, but with a large black vote and a large union vote, both Obama and Edwards could make up ground if the election starts getting more attention in the state.

The Republican polls will probably be slightly more representative, as there are no unions to mass organize or holding a key endorsement as of right now in the state. But a look at the Michigan polls shows essentially a four way race between Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John McCain in the two polls since May, with Newt Gingrich registering significant support in one of the polls.

To cut to the chase, Michigan appears to be wide open right now in both parties. The only person who can even be called a slight favorite in the polls is Hillary Clinton, and even she falls behind Gore when Gore is included.

Republican candidates have little to fear by campaigning in Michigan, but Democrats risk the ire of the DNC, which under Howard Dean is trying to strong-arm states into having the primary schedule that they want. A candidate has a lot to gain and a lot to lose if they start campaigning in Michigan: it’s a state ready to be wooed.

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Mitt Romney: Candidate of Change and Candidate of Bush?

Mitt Romney is increasingly calling for change in Washington, while being careful to not upset the b ase that still supports Bush. From the Boston Globe:

He’s a Republican running to extend his party’s eight-year grip on the White House. Yet Mitt Romney is increasingly casting himself as the “change” candidate, promising voters that he’s the one who would bring conservative reform to Washington.

A new TV ad launched this week in Iowa shows Romney telling a cheering crowd after he won the Ames straw poll last weekend, “If there’s ever a time we needed to see change in Washington, it’s now.”

The change argument, which Romney increasingly weaves into his regular stump speech, seems designed to distance himself from President Bush’s dismal approval ratings and voters’ dismay with the war in Iraq. And as a former governor who spent most of his life as a successful businessman, Romney would seem well positioned to run against the Washington political culture.

But portraying himself as the candidate of change carries some inherent awkwardness for Romney. He has been a strong supporter of the president across a wide range of policies, including Iraq, raising questions about the legitimacy of his “change” contention. At the same time, many hard-core GOP primary voters admire the president, leaving Romney vulnerable to accusations of disloyalty if he takes the argument too far.

The story that Romney tells on the campaign, though, is just as harsh towards Republicans as Democrats:

Americans are deeply dissatisfied with both the Republican administration and the Democratic-controlled Congress, giving an opening to Republicans such as Romney, former mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York, and former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas to cast themselves as Washington outsiders and would-be reformers, Ayres said.

Seizing on this opportunity, Romney has begun telling campaign audiences a folksy story to make the point.

“Ann says watching Washington is like watching a couple of guys in a canoe in a fast-moving river moving towards a waterfall, and they can see the waterfall, they hear it, and instead of paddling, they’re arguing,” he told an audience in Grundy Center, Iowa, last week, referring to his wife. “At some point, you get close enough to that waterfall that you decide to do something about it.”

If this seems somewhat familiar, it is because it was lifted almost note for note from the playbook that Newt Gingrich wrote earlier this summer. Take this exceprt from an interview on Fox News Sunday in June:

WALLACE: Let’s turn to 2008. You suggest that the only way that a Republican in this current political climate is going to win the presidency is to run against President Bush the same way that Nicolas Sarkozy was just elected president of France running against the incumbent, Jacques Chirac, even though he was a member of Chirac’s cabinet. Do you really think the Republicans will nominate someone who is running against George W. Bush?

GINGRICH: No, I don’t think you need to run — in fact, I don’t think you should run against President Bush. I think most of his major decisions have been very sincere, and most of them are decisions the average American actually would endorse. I think what you do have to do is run in favor of radically changing Washington and radically changing government. And I think that all you have to do is look at the examples I’ve given you today where the government simply fails. Look at New Orleans today and you can’t possibly believe this is an effective federal program. And so I think …

WALLACE: But if you’re not running against the president, you’re certainly running against his record.

GINGRICH: Well, what Sarkozy said was that without — he never attacked President Chirac. He never took him on at all. He said simply, “We have to have dramatically bigger changes.” I think the average American will tell you they want Washington changed very dramatically, and that doesn’t always involve the president. Eighty-two percent of the country believes we ought to have a dramatic change in earmarks in the Congress, for example. And I think 85 percent of the country believes English ought to be the official language of government. Those are not necessarily involving President Bush.

At the time, as indicated in another interview with Gingrich in the New Yorker, he expanded upon his thoughts:

The only way to keep the White House in G.O.P. hands, Gingrich said, would be to nominate someone who, in essence, runs against Bush, in the style of Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right cabinet minister who just won the French Presidency by making his own President, Jacques Chirac, his virtual opponent. Sarkozy is a transforming figure in French politics, Gingrich said, and he suggested that the only Republican who shared Sarkozy’s “transformative” approach to governing was, at that moment, eating a bowl of oatmeal at the McLean Family Restaurant.

“What’s fascinating about Sarkozy is that you have an incumbent cabinet member of a very unpopular twelve-year Presidency, who over the last three years became the clear advocate of fundamental change, running against an attractive woman”—the Socialist leader Ségolène Royal—“who is the head of the opposition,” Gingrich went on. “In a country that wanted to say, ‘Not them,’ he managed to switch the identity of the ‘them.’ He said, ‘I’m different from Chirac, and she’s not. If you want more of the same, you should vote for her.’ It was a Lincoln-quality strategic decision.”

There’s been nascent efforts among Democrats to tie each other to Bush, but that’s generally more of a straight political issue. Both Obama and Edwards are talking about bringing change, Edwards in how drug companies et al. are dealt with and Obama in terms of tone. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney both talk about change but haven’t really transformed their campaigns in the visceral way that Gingrich refers to, though. But it’s obvious that both Thompson and Romney have taken the words of Gingrich to heart in the campaign.

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Weekend Calendar Preview (August 10-12, 2007)

It’s Straw Poll day tomorrow in Ames, Iowa, and most of the Republicans will be there after attending the Iowa State Fair today in Des Moines. Newt Gingrich will also be in attendance this weekend.

Barack Obama

• Obama is in Nevada today for two events, before  a parade appearance tomorrow in Chicago. Michelle Obama  has a campaign event scheduled on Sunday in Chicago as well.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson fundraises today in Iowa before taking the weekend off.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd and his wife are campaigning today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Dennis Kucinich

• Kucinich spends the weekend campaigning and fundraising in California.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton is in San Francisco this afternoon, and she fundraises tomorrow in Texas and Oklahoma, before returning to the Bay Area Sunday for a appearance in San Jose.

John Edwards

• Edwards has a town hall event in Nevada today, and has a union appearance scheduled in California tomorrow

Duncan Hunter

• Hunter is participating in the straw poll tomorrow.

John McCain

• McCain holds a town hall meetings today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Mitt Romney

• Romney also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Ron Paul

• Paul has a rally scheduled for tonight in Ames, and attends th straw poll tomorrow.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani campaigns and fundrases today in Colorado Springs.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback campaigns in Iowa today and attends the straw poll tomorrow..

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Tommy Thompson

• Thompson unsurprisingly also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Gingrich Run Looking Unlikely

Newt Gingrich was on Fox News Sunday this morning (he seems to have monthly appearances on that show). He confirmed rumors he had dinner recently with Fred Thompson, and also said that he would likely not run:

WALLACE: Of course, people wonder whether you’re going to get into the race or whether you’re going to stay on the sidelines.

There was a report the other day, and this is the level of political reporting these days, that the Gingriches had dinner a couple of weeks ago with Fred and Jeri Thompson at the Thompsons’ house and that you discussed policy.

So I don’t care so much about the menu. Are you going to endorse Senator Thompson for president?

GINGRICH: Chris, I love this business, and I know why you enjoy every Sunday morning. We’ve now gone from the systemic crisis of the French Fourth Republic to did we have dinner.

Calista has given me permission to tell you that yes, we had a very nice dinner with Jeri and Fred and with Bob Livingston. It was a delightful discussion. They’ve been good friends for many years.

And I think that Fred will be a very formidable candidate. And I start with — American Solutions is offering all of its polling data and all of its ideas to every candidate in both parties. We literally delivered our last poll to every candidate in both parties.

Fred Thompson will be a serious candidate. I think the Republicans have three major choices in Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. I think any of the three will be…

WALLACE: And not John McCain.

GINGRICH: I think Senator McCain has taken positions so deeply at odds with his party’s base that I don’t see how he can get the nomination.

But I think that either Mayor Giuliani or Governor Romney or Senator Thompson would be a very formidable opponent for what I expect will be a Clinton-Obama ticket, and I think that there’s a possibility that will work.

After we’re done with our workshops at American Solutions in September, if there is a vacuum and if there’s a real need for somebody to be prepared to debate Senator Clinton, then I would consider running. I think we’ll know that in October.

But these three are serious people. They’re working very hard. And if they can fill the vacuum, I don’t feel any great need to run.

Gingrich could still be a VP possibility. But he seems content to be the idea man for the right at this point, and will only run for President if the situation is dire. His position politically is really similar to Al Gore’s in that regard - both are unlikely to run, but have not ruled it out in any definitive sense.

I’m not holding my breath for either, though.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (07/29/07)

This week’s podcast covers:

• CNN/YouTube Democratic Debate (July 23, 2007)
• Clinton-Obama Fracas
• Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney back out of proposed CNN/YouTube Republican Debate
• Republican candidates in a political spitball fight (Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Newt Gingrich)
• Spotlight on John Edwards’ tax plan

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Sunday Morning Talk: Gingrich

Meet the Press (NBC): Political Roundtable.

Face the Nation (CBS): Patrick Leahy and Arlen Specter.

This Week (ABC): Charles Schumer, Orrin Hatch, Bob Dole, and Donna Shalala.

Fox Sunday Morning: Russ Feingold, Newt Gingrich, and Cal Ripken Jr.

Late Edition (CNN): Charles Rangel, Christopher Shays, and Roy Blunt.

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Gingrich On Being a Candidate In ‘08: Not a Priority

Newt Gingrich was interviewed by CBS and seemed to play down the idea of running:

CBSNews.com: But isn’t politics, isn’t becoming a candidate, being out there, the best way to get your policy ideas adopted?

Newt Gingrich: How? Absolutely not.

CBSNews.com: Didn’t you get the most done when you were Speaker of the House?

Newt Gingrich: Wait a second. I got a great deal done after 16 years of work, heading up GOPac, using it as a training program which sent out 53,000 training tapes a month to candidates, and incumbents, and having helped shape and grow a majority over a 16 year period. Then I had a very effective three year burst as Speaker, with welfare reform and tax cuts and balancing the budget.

A lot of important things, including creating the Thomas system. But it took that whole effort. It wasn’t the four years. It was also the 16 years that preceded it.

And so I would argue that what I am trying to do right now is just reach out across the country, developing a new generation of solutions, and to enable people to have access to the solutions so that they can use them for their own local government, for their own situation, and be in a position to truly help the whole country, and help Democrats, help Republicans, and help independents. And I will guarantee you, from my personal experience, if I was trying to do something this educational inside the political process, it would become impossible.

You know, Lincoln and Douglas debated seven times for three hours each. Lincoln went to Cooper Union and gave a two hour, 7,300 word speech. Nowadays, we have auditions. We do not have debates. Ten or eleven people looking like they’re trying out for American Idol, standing around patiently while a TV personality asks them an inane question and then gives them 30 seconds to give an inane answer.

That is not communication. Yeah, I would much rather do what I am doing, and try to have people actually look at real material. I reach fewer people, but with greater intensity and with greater clarity. And I am comfortable that over time, this model that reaches much further works better because I have no time pressure.

I’m not trying to win the next election. I am not trying to answer questions about who my consultant is, or how much I am paying my pollster, or how the fundraiser went last night. I am just out developing ideas and solutions, and appealing to people that think that you could have a better America with more solutions if we worked together.

I would certainly agree with him that the current cycle of soundbites accomplishes little. Take for instance, the debate over Obama’s comments on sexual education for kindergartners. Mitt Romney criticized him, but it appears Mitt Romney actually has the same ideas as Obama on the issue. (And there’s just as many examples of Democrats doing the same thing, I’m just picking what is on the top of my head). There’s little to no substance debate on either side. And we’re always ready to get behind initiatives that delve deeper into critical issues: for instance, I thought the earlier push Joe Biden made to have an Iraq-only debate was a good idea; sadly it appears to have fallen off the wagon.And even stranger, when candidates are excluded, even ones with no chance of winning, the outrage is so much that they have to be included or else (see Mike Gravel). The result is debates being deluded and fringe candidates making dramatic statements simply to get attention, which in the end benefits no one.Everyone agrees that the current debates are flawed; the problem is people are so keen on looking for an advantage and preventing themselves from being out debated that they refuse to participate in anything but the most meaningless debates. And that’s a problem, and one the bipartisan nature of politics will require basically divine intervention to stop. Although if it happens, and there are a series of substantial policy-oriented debates or even lectures televised nationally, America would be better off.

That all said, as far as Gingrich is concerned, it keeps seeming less and less likely he will jump in as a candidate unless the entire party is still floundering in late September, which now seems possible given the recent rough patch that Fred Thompson has hit. But it still is unlikely, it seems, as Gingrich has bigger ideas than using the election to talk about his ideas.He’s like Al Gore in that regard: running for office for either of them would seem to needlessly politicize their projects right now and be a step in the wrong direction. Gingrich is still more likely than Gore to run, but that has more to do with the attitude of Republicans towards their candidates than anything else. Over the long run, it will be interesting to see Gingrich’s reaction towards the Republican candidates. He seems right now to embody the underlying distaste with the type of candidates who are running. I think in the end, he has an important role to fill in this election, even if not as a candidate…

[Photo Credit: Flickr user f e r n a n d o]

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Petition: Equitable Time For All Candidates Participating In CNN/YouTube Debates

We’ve covered all the presidential debates so far and something that has always frustrated us is the fact that there is such a huge disparity between in the amount of time that the individual candidates receive.  In some debates some candidates have received 3 times as much speaking time their opponents in the same debate!

Accordingly, we’ve decided to take action and have created a petition that we plan on delivering to CNN and YouTube prior to the first debate (which is being held on July 23, 2007).  The petition simply calls for them to reduce the time disparity by pledging to provide equitable time to all participating candidates.

Enough is enough.  Together we can maximize the utility of these debates by demanding that all candidates be allowed to express their viewpoints in a somewhat comparable way. 

Read the petition here.
Don’t want to read it and just want to sign? Go here.

Please spread the word about this effort to ehance presidential debates. 

Text of the petition: Read more

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Gingrich Talks Fred Thompson and The Realism of Starting a Run in October in the Washington Post

Newt Gingrich talked about his fondness for Fred Thompson and how he could financially put together a run for the presidency as late as October in a profile in the Washington Post today:

As for former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, expected to announce a run for the presidency this week, “I think he becomes the establishment alternative,” Gingrich says. “I’ve been fond of Fred ever since ‘The Hunt for Red October.’ I think he was totally convincing as an admiral.”

What about Thompson’s reputation for being the opposite of a workaholic? “I don’t think it’s a matter of working all that hard and being all that intense if he can put together a fairly bold, Sarkozy-like program,” Gingrich says, referring to the just-elected center-right president of France. “Fred is not Ronald Reagan, but he could be Dwight Eisenhower.” But could he have organized D-Day? “No,” Gingrich chuckles, “but Eisenhower couldn’t have been in ‘The Hunt for Red October.’ ”

Gingrich, for his part, dismisses warnings that October will be too late for a non-billionaire to jump into the race and raise the necessary cash. “Do you know the approximate size of the U.S. economy? About $14 trillion. Annually. And how much money has been raised in politics? Hillary peaked in the first quarter with $26 million. If you assume we live in a limited universe of relatively impoverished people who can afford to contribute to only one candidate, then I will probably not find any supporters on October 1.

“But if you assume we live in a country of 300 million people, a substantial number of whom will not have contributed to anybody, we’ll have to see. Assume for a minute that one of the three front-runners collapses. How many supporters does that make available? Assume for a minute that none of them catch fire.”

At the conclusion of the article, he seems to back down from running:

“I’m actually pretty happy trying to develop a new generation of solutions,” he says. “I think if I can find a way to do that in a way that’s real, not just an academic exercise, put that on top of the ‘Contract With America,’ getting the majority in the House and helping the Georgia Republican Party, that would be a pretty good run. I think the Benjamin Franklin analogy is the best analogy. Franklin enjoyed being Franklin. He didn’t think he was less than Washington or Jefferson. He was deliberately eclectic and deliberately complex, and happy to be so. He was pretty interesting. If you had told him, ‘If you could have been simple, you could have been president,’ he would have said, ‘That’s pretty stupid.’ “

Gingrich right now seems to be clearly running away from running unless everything collapses and he is the only hope for Republicans (something I would also say perfectly describes the position Al Gore is in right now).

But, as always with Newt, that is subject to change. I still think it comes down to whether he can find someone in the race who will think like him; he’s smart enough to care for policy over personal political victories. Whether that person is Fred Thompson, we’ll have to wait and see.

[Photo Credit: Flickr user The Brit_2]

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Weekend Calendar Preview

Last few days to fundraise before the 2nd quarter deadline. All Democratic candidates except Mike Gravel plus Duncan Hunter are in Florida Saturday for the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Read more about the forum here. We received an email today from the Hunter campaign that he has decided to participate after initially rejecting the offer. We hope to offer more on this later today.

Barack Obama

Obama kicks off his campaign in Minnesota tomorrow night and is in Florida tomorrow for the NALEO forum.

Bill Richardson

Richardson fundraises in Texas and New Mexico before heading to Florida for the forum.

Chris Dodd

Dodd takes today off before heading to Florida tomorrow.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich appears on the Late Show tomorrow night, and appears in the Pride Promenade Parade tomorrow morning in St. Petersburg; he is in Portland, Oregon, on Sunday night for a rally.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton has a fundraising event on Saturday in Florida in addition to the NALEO rally.

Joe Biden

Biden is addressing the NALEO convention on Saturday.

John Edwards

Edwards has a fundraiser scheduled tonight in Jacksonville in addition to his appearance at the NALEO forum.

Duncan Hunter

Hunter is scheduled to appear at both the Iowans for Fair Tax Relief Forum and the NALEO forum tomorrow.

John McCain

McCain has a fundraiser scheduled in Pittsburgh tomorrow, a few days after Giuliani also held a fundraiser in the city.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee campaigns all weekend in Iowa, including an appearance at the Iowans for Fair Tax Relief Forum.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney is also in Iowa all weekend, and also participating in the Iowans for Fair Tax Relief forum. Romney’s schedule is particularly jam packed as he will race from event to event.

Ron Paul

Paul has been shut out of the forum in Iowa, but rebounded by holding his own rally in the same building at the same time.

Rudy Guiliani

Giuliani is in California today for a fundraiser and an appearance, and will be in New Orleans tomorrow.

Sam Brownback

Brownback is in Iowa tomorrow for the Presidential forum.

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo is in Iowa this weekend for a number of events, including the Presidential forum.

Tommy Thompson

Tommy Thompson also appears at the Presidential Forum in Iowa tomorrow.

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Press Released: Week of June 18-24

Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics.

Barack Obama

In what is probably the most important release this week, Obama listed all of the earmarks he requested for this years budget, challenging others to do the same. Ipol already has a good write-up of it here.

Obama released a statement on democratic activist Aung San Suee, who is imprisoned in Burma.

Obama released a statement on clean burning coal, which he said still needed more research before it could be used safely in lieu of the ‘climate crisis.’ He issued another release later in the week saying the energy bill was a “modest first step” towards addressing the crisis.

Obama called for the Employee Free Choice Act to be passed. His campaign issued a statement of his about Nevada Culinary Workers Union settling their contract with Harrah’s.

Obama released a statement that praised The Higher Education Access Act for taking his recommendations, including recommendations to better fund primarily black colleges.

Obama issued a release about the strong ethics reforms he is pushing with Russ Feingold. This was a day before he made the announcement of the strict ethics reforms he would institute if elected President.

Obama joined with Chuck Hagel and Sherrod Brown to sponsor a bill that would improve services for blind veterans.

The Obama campaign announced the participants in the Dinner with Barack.

Bill Richardson

Richardson issued a statement on the actions of the New Mexico Senators regarding the Energy Bill.

Richardson issued a statement on Gay Lesbian Bisexual & Transgender Pride Month.

Richardson issued some press releases honoring the South Carolina firefighters who died.

Richardson said he was pleased the North Koreans have so far kept the promises they made to him when he visited in April.

Richardson called for all troops to be brought home from Iraq.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd hailed the unanimous passage of Head Start funding.

Dodd issued a press release regarding his introduction of legislation to further help the Gulf Coast recover from Katrina.

Dodd and Sen. Shelby introduced legislation to attempt to fix the currency crisis with China.

Dodd teamed with Ted Stevens tto introduce a bill that would give 8 weeks of paid leave for “workers needing time off due to the birth or adoption of a child, to care for a child, spouse or parent with a serious illness or to care for their own serious illness.”

Dodd is upset that Sen. Coburn put a hold on a bill with broad bipartisan support that would provide additional funding for civil rights crimes still unsolved. He wrote an op-ed with Rep. John Lews this week as well.

Dodd issued a release calling for greater pressure to be put on Sudan to stop the genocide in Darfur.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich was upset that Congress voted Iran in violation of the 1948 Convention on Genocide because of Ahmadinejad’s comments that Israel must be destroyed; he said Ahmadinejad’s comments were similar to what Pres. Bush has said on Iran and Iraq.

Kucinich and Rep. Waxman asked the SEC to slow down the offering of Blackstone LP.

Kucinich touted that he and Michael Moore were on the same page regarding health care. He issued a separate release of Moore endorsing his health care plan.

Kucinich issued a release criticizing the laxing of labor laws in New Orleans following Katrina.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton received endorsements this week in New York, New Jersey, California, Arkansas, Washington, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan.

Clinton called for the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Clinton held a tree planting ceremony to symbolize the need for alternative energy in western New York.

Clinton called on the Bush administration to provide answers as to the air quality after 9/11.

Clinton called on the Dept. of Homeland Security to make the northern border more secure.

Clinton wrote her NY constituents a letter regarding her position on the Iraq war.

Clinton was pleased at th reforms of student loans passed by the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee.

Clinton is among the co-sponsors of a bipartisian health IT bill.

Joe Biden

Biden also urged passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Biden announced support in New Hampshire, and the National Coordinator of Veterans for Biden.

Biden issued a scathing response to an anonymous attack by the Obama camp on his appearance at the funeral of the SC firefighters.

Biden introduced a bill that would address the Iraqi Refugee crisis.

Biden called for a new foreign policy strategy for dealing with Russia.

Biden issued a press release regarding National Clean Beaches Week.

John Edwards

Edwards issued a statement on Gen. Petraeus’s comments on Iraq.

Edwards urged passage of the Employee Free Choice Act.

Edwards commented on the death of the South Carolina firefighters.

Edwards issued a statement reagarding the report of the Army Corps of Engineers report on New Orleans.

As part of his renewed campaign to ‘build one America’, Edwards promised to take on abusive lenders and to reduce debt.

Duncan Hunter

Like Barack Obama, Hunter also released a list of the earmarks he proposed in the current Appropriations bill, and deserves credit for that.

Hunter criticized the cross-border trucking program with Mexico.

Fred Thompson

Fred Thompson has a blog on his official site where commentaries he gives elsewhere are often cross posted.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore wrote a letter to President Bush suggesting a middle ground between the status quo and withdrawal on Iraq.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee received an endorsement from the Home School Legal Defense Association.

Mitt Romney

Romney announced endorsements in Massachusetts, Nevada, Iowa, and Montana.

Romney unveiled his ‘Global Initiative For Values And Freedom’ which focuses on broad strategies to combat the jihadist threat.

Romney launched a new TV ad.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich cited 9/11 Commission report in touting he was right in that several 9/11 hijackers were in the US illegally.

Ron Paul

Paul had a column up this week about the inevitable failure of earmarks i the appropriations bill that waste billions of dollars.

Paul issued a press release regarding his support for a wall and opposition to amnesty or any benefits for illegal immigrants.

The Paul campaign is upset regarding Paul’s exclusion from a candidate forum in Iowa sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief and Iowa Christian Alliance.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani issued a press release regarding the air quality at Ground Zero, quoting numerous sources indicating the air was safe.

Giuliani’s campaign issued a statement touting their position in the race; we discussed this a bit during this week’s podcast.

Giuliani is in favor of making all earmark requests public. This is what Hunter and Obama have done already. He issued a second release on the topic earlier in the week, and a statement by Steve Forbes to the same effect.

Giuliani announced endorsements in Florida, New York, and a replacement of his campaign chairman in South Carolina, who is taking over for Mark Ravenal, about whom the campaign denied knowing any information..

Giuliani announced his economic policy board.

Giuliani issued a statement on Bush’s nomination of Jim Nussle as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Sam Brownback

Brownback commemorated World Refugee Day.

Brownback opened his office in Ames at the conclusion of his bus tour, which he called a big success.

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo touted an amendment the House passed that would enhace ties between Taiwan and America.

Tancredo’s campaign distributed a pledge against amnesty to members of Congress and urged them to sign it.

Mike Bloomberg

Text of the speech of Mike Bloomberg at the “Ceasefire! Bridging The Political Divide” conference.

This is the press release Bloomberg issued after changing his political affiliation to independent.

Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.

Sphere: Related Content

2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (06/24/07)

This week’s podcast covers…

• Mike Bloomberg departing the GOP
• Fred Thompson to announce soon?
• John McCain and Mitt Romney’s political scuffle
• Hillary Clinton booed at the Take Back America Conference: What’s it mean?
• 2008Central.net’s John Whitehouse attended the “Generation Barack Obama” event in New York City on June 22, 2007. What were his impressions?
• Despite a rough couple of weeks, Rudy Giuliani remains the leader of the pack
• Notes on the second tier
• A look ahead to the close of the second fundraising quarter of 2007 and the significance of primary date