Presidential Candidates As Batman Super Villains

With all the silly political talk of comparing the Bush Administration to Batman, I thought I’d take a look on the lighter side and compare various Presidential candidates to different Batman villains. This isn’t serious political analysis, but dammit, I have this site as a forum and I intend to use it. (And frankly, if it’s good enough of a topic for Wall Street Journal editors, It’s good enough for me.) I picked super villains arbitrarily. I don’t want to get into a “who is Batman and who is evil” argument. That’s just boring.

Barack Obama as Harvey “Two Face” Dent: The idea that spawned this post. While others are doing strange things like comparing Dick Cheney to Batman or something like that, given that the arch of the story is the rise and fall of newcomer and beacon of hope DA Harvey Dent, I’m surprised there’s not more comparisons between the two. There’s this article, sure. But that seems more intent on criticizing platitudes than it does at looking at something deeper: are figures of hope like Obama and Dent doomed to failure? Clearly they are doomed to dim. Wile the article criticizes Obama for lack of particular details, it’s ultimately Dent’s drive for only results that dooms him. When pushed towards the edge by his horrific scaring and in TDK the (spoiler!) death of Rachel Dawes, Dent is concerned only with the ends, not with the means, of resolving problems. One gets the feeling that more contemplation on platitudes would have helped him, not hurt him. So I think Obama differs in that respect. On the other hand, that side of Dent always existed; it was just hidden by both his meteoric rise and previous success. After all, anyone can keep their secrets hidden while succeeding.

Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton as Ra’s al Ghul and Talia al Ghul: In the comics, they are father and daughter; here they are husband and wife. Let’s just gloss over that difference. In the comics, Ra’s could not be killed thanks to the Lazarus Pits; where he could rise from the dead. Surely, this reminds everyone of the numerous times that Bill himself rose from what was surely political death. The intrigue between the al Ghuls rivals the reported intrigue between Bill and Hillary. Bill has actively and inadvertently hurt Hillary in the past, as any sane person would admit. In the comics, this antagonism even leads Talia and Batman to sleep together. Similarly, Hillary and Obama used to be close allies, with Hillary even fundraising for Obama at one point during his Senate run, the political equivalent of sex if there is any. Moreover, this also means that the normal Clinton confidantes are known as the League of Shadows. Just as in Batman Begins, they are regarded as formidable by Ra’s, but in the end do absolutely nothing to help him, and only allow the enemy to take him down. One can imagine Obama as Batman goading Bill to please bring on four pawns (Mark Penn, Harold Ickes, James Carville, and Terry McAulliffe) instead of just four. Although in reality, it’s because the four will get in each others ways. Of course in this analogy, Hillary as Talia has her own henchwomen, who are none the more competent (Patti Solis Doyle) for the most part. (You’ll never, ever hear me say anything negative about Maggie Williams, mostly because I think she would have me killed for real.)

Tom Tancredo as the Dr. Jonathan Crane, aka The Scarecrow: A candidate who bases his entire campaign on fear. But more than that: Tancredo never intended go through with his campaign. In Batman Begins, Ra’s al Ghul states that Scarecrow believes the plan was to hold the city to ransom. It seems Tancredo’s entire campaign was based on the premise that he would hold the Republican Party hostage unless they elected someone he agreed with. And then they decided not to anyways.

John McCain as the mob. Yes the mob as a whole. Carmine Falcone, Sal Maroni, the whole bunch. In the comics and in the Dark Knight there are factions of the mob, just like they are factions of McCain supporters. Rick Davis, John Weaver, Mike Murphy, Steve Schmidt and others all had their time to be in control before circumstances forced them out, and they all do not like each other, and do not work well together (as seen in the mob scene in The Dark Knight before the Joker arrives. Each of them backstabs and steals from the other, ostensibly to protect the rest). Moreover, there is no control over them from the mob as a whole. McCain is said to be a laissez faire manager just as the mob as a whole favors looser rules. Moreover, McCain absolutely seems to abhor Barack Obama, just as the mob abhors Dent for the type of change he wishes to bring. They want things to change to, but jsut to the way things used to be. They are in a way as old as McCain is. In the movies, the mob is somewhat like McCain in that they refuse to go away. Like the Hydra, you can cut off one head, but two more will sprout in its place. McCain similarly seems to never go away no matter how many times he seems out. Like the mob turning to Joker in the Dark Knight, McCain also seems to have no good plan whatsoever, and changes plans on the fly when things turn out to be different than he thought. Does this say anything about what McCain is doomed to be? I don’t think so. The mob keeps on existing, but never in the same format. It’s certainly not predestined in any movie that the mob will lose. Indeed, the only comparison seems to be that McCain’s campaign could turn out to either be the Joker tormenting the mob’s opponents, or the Joker later threatening the entire barge full of mob associates with death. Also like the mob, McCain functions better when backed into a corner. Lastly, McCain lacks a certain shine and appeal that the mob also lacks in comparison to other “freak” type villains.

Mitt Romney as Oswald Cobblepot, AKA the Penguin: Whereas the Penguin used his ownership of the Iceberg Lounge to gain entry into Gotham, Romney uses his leadership at Bain Capital for much the same purpose. There was always a question of taking what Penguin says as truth: he never comes across as sincere. Romney may not have come across as insincere as Penguin did in, say, Batman Returns, but his numerous problems with flip-flopping caused serious problems for him this cycle. Moreover, his sons are everywhere, just like the Penguins were seemingly in Batman Returns. And just as the Penguin in One Year Later seemingly abandons crime for a legal presence, Romney also aborted what was a previous hard line stance against McCain suddenly to endorse him shortly after Super Tuesday. Most superficially, the Penguin is the high society type criminal compared to all the rest; similarly, Mitt Romney seems the most high society of all the candidates, due in large part to his massive wealth. Note: If there is one supervillain Romney is not, it is Deadshot.

John Edwards as Waylon Jones, aka Killer Croc: The easy choice for Edwards is Two Face. Running a completely different campaign than his first time, being an impressive trial lawyer and all. But in reality, the specific flaws and details of Edwards this cycle have nothing to do with the flaws and defining characteristics of Harvey Dent. Killer Croc is the one villain whose entire existence is almost entirely defined by his appearance: his reasons and justifications for doing what he did are inconsequential, if they exist at all. In this campaign, despite the support he got (which, compared to all but Obama and Clinton, was very substantial), Edwards was doomed because of the perceptions he allowed to be created about himself: the expensive haircuts, the video of him combing his air, etc. Essentially that he came to be defined in the market place as someone really, really vain. Killer Croc is the only Supervillain similarly concerned with image. While Edwards allowed himself to be defined by his, Croc hid and acted out because of his image. And yes, there’s also that small matter of Edwards sneaking around in basements of hotels being stalked. Very Croc-ian.

Dennis Kucinich as Jarvis Tetch, aka the Mad Hatter: Like the Mad Hatter was inspired by Lewis Carroll, Kucinich seems torn out of a different era of politics, one where William Jennings Bryan and Eugene Debs were the constant candidates. The delusion of the Mad Hatter strikes me as exactly the same as the delusion of Kucinich that he can win. His many tricks in the comics are similar to Kucinich’s tricks in politics. Tetch was seemingly run over by a train, only for it to turn out to be a trick; similarly, Kucinich was thought done when he ran the city of Cleveland into bankruptcy, only to emerge years later as a Congressman. Moreover, anyone who is not his supporter wonders why he is still trying. I’ll just end with that there’s something of a physical resemblance as well.

Fred Thompson as Bane: Bane was introduced in the comics as essentially the negative version of Batman: awesome power, awesome intellect. He ended up breaking Bruce Wayne’s back. But I’m not comparing Thompson to that Bane. I’m comparing him to the Bane in Batman and Robin, the horrible fourth batman movie. In that movie, going on the legacy of the comic book Bane, Bane instead becomes an unimportant tool who only serves as muscle; That is regularly noted as one of the worst transitions from comics to movies ever. Thompson similarly entered the race to great fanfare, only to find out he was far too little far too late. Thompson, like Bane, was a supposedly fierce character who when put into a campaign fizzled beyond what anyone expected. The comic Bane is the Fred Thompson that people expected; the awful film version is the one people got. I also have no problem comparing Holly wood to a South American prison. Many suggest that a new interpretation of Bane in the current Batman series could be widely successful; I’m not so sure. Wildly intelligent, strong, and athletic people tend to not sneak around in masks. While the true believers may never admit it, the concept at heart just is not very believable. Note: Just because Thompson and Clayface both were actors does not make them similar in any meaningful way.

Ron Paul as Lennie Adkin, aka Anarky: One sentence in Wikipedia says it all: “Lonnie Machin, a teenage prodigy who, believing in Anarchism, creates improvised gadgets and attempts to subvert government in order to improve society.” Paul himself was not young - the opposite of it - but he certainly attracted youth en masse to his libertarian oriented campaign. And while some would say the dominant Paul story as the racist old newsletters, Paul had no chance to win before or after that story broke. Moreover, Paul’s campaign innovated on the internet in ways few others have ever done, either their notable moneybombs and extensive social networking (and comment bombing). Moreover, the obvious comparison is in the goals of Adkin and Paul: both wanted substantially smaller governments (Adkin clearly went further than Paul). Does Adkin’s failure indicate that Paul’s crusade will never be successful? I don’t think so. There will probably never anytime soon be an extensive, successful libertarian movement, but there can certainly be small steps made in that direction. As a bonus, the character was created in part from Paulite hero and Alan Moore creation V from V for Vendetta.

Rudy Giuliani as Eddie Nashton, aka The Riddler: The Riddler, simply put, is known for leaving riddles after crimes; it’s a dare to be caught, whereas conventional wisdom would normally lead criminals to, you know, try to get away with the crimes they commit. The defining tactical decision of the Giuliani campaign was skipping all the early states that conventional wisdom said he had to at least get a symbolic if not a real victory in for him to be competitive in later states such as Florida. He decided not to. Moreover, the Riddler is covered with question marks all over his suit that give away not only his identity but also his only useful sentence was a Riddle to lead people to him. And while Giuliani’s innumerable references to 9/11 were not at all that pathological, there was clearly something in Joe Biden’s joke that ever Giuliani sentence contained a noun, a a verb, and 9/11. In short, Giuliani was the Riddler in that a lot of his campaign was built on one very simple and repetitive riddle.

Mike Huckabee as Arthur Brown, aka The Cluemaster: The Cluemaster was a failed game show host, and if there’s any four word phrase in Batman history that could define Huckabee, it is ‘failed game show host’ - with the possible exception of ’successful game show host’. The rise of Huckabee’s campaign was in large part due to his charm, and the fall of his campaign was ultimately responsible for his inability to transcend that charm as, say, Ronald Reagan did. The comic plight of Cluemaster is largely not very similar, except that Cluemaster ends up doing surprisingly well and survives a battle even when many thought he was dead from being shot in the chest. Similarly, Huckabee’s campaign refused to die even when it was mathematically impossible for him to win.

Bill Richardson as Catwoman: Get your gender jokes out of the way, I’m not interested in them. Good? Ok. The essence of the history of Catwoman as defined by Wikipedia: “Selina Kyle, starting as a criminal who wore a cat-themed costume and often operated as a burglar, has a love/hate relationship with Batman. For years, she skirted on the edge between villain and antiheroine. However, she has largely reformed in recent years, adopting the role of the guardian of Gotham’s crime-infested East End, though she still comes into conflict with Batman on occasion.” This mirrors Bill Richardson in many ways. First of all, Catwoman is the ultimate resume villain: she’s done it all. For evil, for good, she’s been there. If I had a nickel for every time Richardson said “Look, I’m a governor” this election as to prove what he has done, I would be able to hire someone to write this post. Moreover, Richardson essentially had a love-hate relationship with all his opponents. Clinton supporters liked him when he defended Hillary during debates, and then were outraged when he first appeared to help Obama on Iowa Caucus night and then endorsed Obama after allegedly promising not to. (Obama supporters were the opposite). In the end, Richardson was distrusted by all and left to run hos own state which was shockingly bad in most rankings. Similarly, the most recent Catwoman movie was shockingly bad by even the most generous standards. The Catwoman character, like Richardson, is championed by a small minority who think it is essential to Batman; others think its inclusion in any TDK sequel would be repetitive and boring. I’d be inclined to agree with the latter. The Catwoman character is played out and in the end not very interesting. A jewel thief who is athletic? In the Nolan’s Gotham, that’s about as small and pointless as they come. Meanwhile, just like some predicted Richardson would be a dark horse candidate, once people got a long look at him,  he disappointed; the more the Catwoman character has been exposed in movies, the less popular they have gotten. It’s fair to say that to some extent the character was a failure in Batman Returns and was again surely a disappointment in Catwoman. Also, Catwoman would probably defend cats as innocent ipso facto them being cats, just as Richardson accidentally defended Alberto Gonzalez in the first debate just because he was Hispanic.

Duncan Hunter as Garfield Lynns, aka Firefly: I don’t even have to add comment on this one. Wikipedia on Firefly: “Garfield Lynns, an orphan who became a pyromaniac and has developed a fireproof suit and flamethrower to further pursue his ‘hobby’. He was originally known as a cunning criminal who invented numerous weapons that use light to commit crimes with.” And Eve Fairbanks on Duncan Hunter: “During the trip, we stopped at a gold mine, and Hunter got the idea that the Brobdingnagian ore haulers (whose wheels alone are ten feet tall) would make good troop vehicles in Iraq since they’d resist IEDs. (Possibly true, but they also resist steering.) These kind of pie-in-the-sky, mad-inventor brainstorms earned the nickname “Hunter Specials” among staffers on the committee he chaired, Armed Services. I wondered occasionally if Hunter’s ruthless thrashing in the GOP primaries had dampened some of his unusual style of enthusiasm, but apparently it didn’t. This morning’s Post carried the story of a Hunter Special for the ages: He submitted a request to our embassy in N’Djamena, Chad, to personally hunt and serve wildebeest to needy Darfurian refugees there. ” Wow. Easiest one yet.

Last but never least: The Joker after the jump. ….

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Ten Things To Read Today (Wednesday, March 12)

Today’s “should-reads”…

1. The Obama campaign picked a fight with the Clinton campaign over the statement that North Carolina would not be contested in the general election. This led to a conference call, the audio of which we have posted here. Marc Ambinder notes the state could conceivably be a swing state this cycle; Obama is currently up 8 points for the primary that is scheduled on May 6. More out there is the suggestion that Obama could contest Kansas this fall, based only on it is where his grandmother was from and that some McCain aides lobbied against Boeing and for Airbus in the recent tanker deal. The McCain campaign finds the idea of any fire to this smoke preposterous. Matthew Yglesias says people should look at all states that could conceivably be in play depending on the nominee, not just ones that Kerry barely lost.
2. Rudy Giuliani is holding a press conference tomorrow in Pennsylvania; Hotline speculates that he may be the chair of McCain’s VP Selection Committee. Of course, the chair of George W. Bush’s committee was one Richard Cheney. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney tells Hannity that he’d love the job and that McCain is the “Big Dog.”
3. Josh Patashnik finds that Obama is running away from reformist credentials on education instead of running on them. A great read that briefly also touches on Clinton’s traditional Democratic approach to education (and hence the NEA endorsement) and that McCain would probably not waste political capital on the issue if elected. Considering the renewal of No Child Left Behind that awaits the next President, it’s an issue that should be getting far more attention than it is. (Required nod to Ed in 08).
4. I want the Geraldine Ferraro fiasco to be over with, so let me just link to Ezra Klein saying that candidates are who they are and hypotheticals in that regard are absurd, since it’s what I would have written had I thought of it. Her tour of talk shows this morning was embarassing to me as a person who thinks ideas in politics should matter, and it’s about time she was removed from the Clinton campaign, who at least twice reiterated that Ferraro was not speaking for them. They apparently forced her to resign, and while I still have unanswered questions (why resign if you are “absolutely not” sorry for your comments?), it’s for the best to leave them unanswered and just move on.
5. There is now an official projection of Obama winning the Texas caucus (technically conventions) by CNN, though the final tally will not be in for a while. And it appears that between those caucuses, and the results in Wyoming and Mississippi, that Obama has completely made up any delegate gains of Clinton on March 4. In fact, Obama will get more delegates from Texas than Clinton will. The math keeps hurting Clinton at this point; Andrew Sullivan points to a Daily Kos analysis that posits even a big win in Pennsylvania will only get Clinton a relatively small number of delegates; Obama could make up that amount in North Carolina and Indiana. Andrew Romano meanwhile interviews Pennsylvania politics expert G. Terry Madonna on all things Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Ambinder has the Obama campaign delegate spreadsheet on where the race is.
6. Hillary Clinton won a good amount of Republicans in Mississippi yesterday, and Mark Blumenthal investigates why.

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McCain Wins Florida; Giuliani to Endorse?

Well … so much for our predictions. McCain wins and has a massive advantage in the Feb. 5 states especially with the news below, except in the South … where McCain friendly Huckabee has a massive advantage.

As for Giuliani, Mark Halperin says he could drop out and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.

McCain wins the nomination unless he drops the ball or Romney pulls a miracle in the next week.

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Giuliani Campaign Obits For Everyone!

I was going to compile a list of all the Giuliani obituaries that ran today, but over the course of an hour, I could barely make a dent. Sadly, the obituaries included sending people to Mars, Jon Voight fighting a dog, Junichiro Koizumi throwing a baseball, Rudy himself phone banking and more.

Rest assured, while the Florida race is too close to call, what is assured is Giuliani is going to come in a distant third at best. Howard Fineman is already reporting that Giuliani is unlikely to appear at the debate tomorrow night. With everyone in the media treating this as his wake, he’ll probably end up dropping out at some point tomorrow. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably just embarrass himself more.

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Pre-Florida Results Notes

Below are some thoughts before the results of Florida’s primary are released…

• I was thinking this earlier, but Michael Crowley actually wrote it down and contextualized it. What if Obama out-performs polls in Florida? Clearly, that would be a big story after Clinton touted it so much. Of course, Clinton’s talk about seating the candidates probably allows her to not be worried about such a phenomenon, as presumably voters would be attracted to a candidate saying their vote counts more than one staying silent on the issue.
• Exit poll alert! McCain up barely over Romney, with Giuliani nowhere nearby. On this basis, I’m predict it for Romney. Exit polls are never right, and McCain’s organizing on early voting was awful compared to Romney and Giuliani. And Romney is apparently up in the absentee voting, as it turns out.
• We stayed out of this one because it was obvious, but McCain pretty much lied about Mitt Romney and the surge. Justin at Donklephant was a bit more charitable to McCain than I would have been, but right on all points, and far better than most mainstream coverage. I’ll add that these sort of dishonest attacks are going to hurt McCain among the independent base of his that values his ’straight talk.’ I wish columnists would draw the necessary conclusions about what this says of McCain’s campaign instead of using limited lines like ‘misleading low blow‘ or something similar. It’s a bit shameful that most of the heavy lifting on this was done by pro-Romney sites like the National Review.
• Meanwhile, Romney attacks McCain over spending … that is, not doing enough of it.
• How much will getting the endorsements of Crist and Martinez help McCain? That it’s a closed primary with only Republicans, and they are more moderates, means possibly not as much as he would like.
• Also, as far as delegates, it’s winner take all. But that 2 point win or loss margin sure doesn’t sound that bad, does it? In other words, this is the third fight of McCain-Romney, not the last. (Apologies to SC, Wyoming, and Nevada, but you were not really contested by both even if you were won by one.)

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On Political Coverage This Weekend

The Clinton campaign pushed hard for free media coverage in primetime this week, and was rebuffed:

Insiders tell TVNewser the Hillary Clinton campaign was prepared to give exclusive access for the next 48 hours to ABC’s 20/20, but because of a scheduling conflict, ABC News passed on the offer. Sources tell us the campaign had wanted ABC to accompany Sen. Clinton for a 48 hour period beginning today, with the report airing Friday night on 20/20.

With the Super Bowl airing Sunday, and thus presumably lower than normal viewership for 60 Minutes, an appearance on 20/20 would have been the Clinton campaign’s best shot at getting a prime time network audience before Super Tuesday. Nightline’s Cynthia McFadden will spend tomorrow with the candidate for a “day in the life” story which will air tomorrow night.

Candidates are not going to get much of a chance after the CNN debates to change the perception of them before Feb. 5, with the Super Bowl this weekend. Unless someone does something dramatic on Saturday, I suppose, but even then…

The debates tomorrow (for Republicans) and Thursday are looming especially large.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (01/27/08)

This podcast looks at (1) results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary; (2) a brief discussion about the media coverage of identity politics and (3) a look ahead to the Florida and February 5th primaries…

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Live Blog Of MSNBC Republican Debate In Florida (January 24, 2007)

7:30: Time Russert and Brian Williams (henceforth, Bri-Wi) are moderating this debate, and participating are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul. I’m looking for Huckabee and Giuliani to be particularly aggressive, as a bad finish in Florida could really hurt them.

As an aside, today is the one year anniversary of this little site. So for those of you who have stuck around for all 1,053 posts now, I’m sure you realize how damned lucky you are to have us. But enough about us, you’re here to see two old white men question five other old white men about who should replace another old white man. How thrilling!

8:46: MSNBC says the debate is “DO OR DIE.” in large all-cap font. Note this, because your children will want to know about the time that four presidential candidates were all killed on stage by a major news company. In other words, don’t expect this debate to be a subtle discussion of minor differences.

8:59: Want to skip us as middlemen and watch it yourself but don’t have cable? Screw you! Seriously, though, watch here. Brian Williams just told people not to cheer to give people at home misleading impressions. And now he’s thanking military people in the audience.

9:01: Lyndon Johnson was at the university when it opened. Hillary Clinton just issued a press release that it takes a president to open a school.

9:02: Candidates are tired; apparently, they requested the debate only goes 90 minutes instead of 2 hours at their request. Tim Russert looks angry.

9:03: Romney is asked about the stimulus plan, and contrasts it with Bush’s. Is he disappointed? Romney says it is effective, he just wishes it went further. Romney somehow says that a permanent tax cut is equivalent to a rebate or no taxes on capital gains. Talks about creating jobs and the mortgage crisis. He sounds like he’s somewhat competant, but pandering at the same time.

9:05: McCain says he will vote for the plan, and is disappointed it does not make the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain talks about people having uncertainty in their budget for 2010, and it sounds like a punch line. Segues into pork barrel talk. Talks up the rate cuts by Bernanke and the need for tax cuts. He’s completely trying to erase any doubts of him on the tax issue.

9:07: Giuliani says the package is OK, but does not go far enough. Talks up his surrogates introducing legislation (Dreier and Bond). Says there is no difference between temporary and permanent. Says that if America over taxes, spends, sues, or regulates that America loses. Specifically excludes military spending. Said he is worried about London overtaking NYC as financial center.

9:09: McCain is asked about a quote that said he did not know the economy well enough. He flatly denies the quote and says he is well versed. Cites support of Jack Kemp and Phil Gramm and his experience in the Senate on the “Congress committee.” I’m not sure about any of the credentials he’s mentioning here.

9:11: Does Huckabee trust Romney on taxes or fees? What an awfulo question. Huckabee demurs, and says its about voters. He talks up him balancing the budget. Huckabee says that we’ll borrow money for the package from China and buy Chinese packages (Did Duncan Hunter take over as speech writer?) Huckabee says that a bigger priority ought be building infrastructure, and says 95 should be widened. I’d love to know his plan for widening the Cross Bronx.

9:13: Does Romney trust McCain and Giuliani on taxes? He says he respects them despite differences but share a common goal. Cites his bipartisanship in solving problems without raising taxes. Talks about the surplus. Criticizes McCain for not voting for the Bush tax cuts the first time, and says that the POTUS needs to understand the private sector like he does.

9:15: McCain says that the people who had fees raised by Romney thought they were a tax increase. Flat joke. Talks at length about needing to cut spending to cut taxes at first. Talks at length about pork barrel spending.

9:17: Paul is brought in and asked about government intervention. Says the fed cutting interest rates and printing money is the problem. Says less regulations and taxes is the problem. The dollar is crashing and it’s hurting foreign policy, and we’re spending money on an empire, etc. Criticizes no one cutting money overseas.

9:18: This is very antiseptic, with almost no interaction between candidates. Bri-Wi asks Giuliani about banks borrowing money from overseas. Giuliani first talks about his trip to Ground Zero with a Saudi prince, when he found out that the prince criticized American foreign policy. Says that is fundamentally different from investments where there is no other reasons behind it, and a mutuality of interest. Moves in Japan buying into America that brough Japan and America closer together. Wants America to sell something to the world. Not sure what, exactly.

9:21: A poll showed Democrats with an 18 point lead of trust on the economy. Russert lkists a bunch of stats that showed problems with the economy over the past 6 years. McCain says Democrats will increase government and raise spending, calling that ’straight talk.’ He just mentioned 10 minutes ago that the Bush administration was the worst at increasing the size of government since LBJ, and now that? He concludes by talking about taxes and Democrats like he’s a 5 year old.

9:24: Huckabee takes credit for not being in Washington. Then says it’s not all on Bush as he kept us safe. Huckabee takes credit for being the only one to say the economy was doing bad at the CNBC economic debate a few months ago. Huckabee says that trickle down may be true, but trickle-up is a sign of a bad economy coming. Funny, but conservatives probably won’t buy it.

9:25: Romney takes the bold stance of running on his record. Attacks Washington and says promises are never met. Cites spending, Social Security, immigration, and foreign oil. Blames both parties, and says Republicans are the party of change.

9:27: Giuliani says he is the only one to turn around an economy. And yes, Huckabee and Romney both took credit for a turnaround earlier. Cites his stimulus plan being touted by the Club for Growth.

9:28: Paul says he cannot be identified with a high spending crowd, but Republicans need to fix their goals. Says America is moving into a new era. Sure, I guess.

9:29: Local question for McCain, about the military being on the verge of breaking and the economy being on the edge of breaking. How will McCain manage staying in Iraq militarily and economically? He says no one in the military says we cannot stay. Attacks Clinton for wanting to withdraw. Says no one complains about troops around the world a mere ten minutes after Paul complained. Dodges the economic issue completely.

9:31: Barry McCaffrey says the army is too small and needs to be doubled. How do you do that without a draft. Romney says that he wants to add 100k. He says he incentivized it in Ma, and the GI Bill needs to be better funded. Segues into attacking Democrats for prioritizing getting out over winning in Iraq. Worried about Al Qaeda taking over Iraq, then says safe haven. Says Clinton is arrogant for taking credit of the surge, that it is the blood of troops and Petraeus, not “Gen. Hillary Clinton.” Apparently Florida is Clinton bashing territory.

9:34: Will you go to the country and say the war was worth it? McCain says it was worth getting rid of Hussein, and mishandling the war was the problem. Russert presses him on it being a good idea, and McCain repeats the answer and says yes (stupid Russert question). Giuliani attacks answers on polls. Giuliani attacks Clinton for going with the polls. Wow, Hillary bashing gone overtime. Talks about polls not pushing you around.

9:36: Paul says it was a bad idea to a smattering of applause (clearly NOT a majority). Cites the 1998 resolution. Does not want America to start wars.

9:37: Huckabee says he and “the Democrats” supported Bush; talked about the ‘potential’ of WMD and compares them somehow to damn easter eggs. Says you cannot second guess.

9:38: Romney steals McCain’s talking points on the issue. MSNBC thankfully shows McCain nearly laughing. He’s worried about Al Qaeda being a ’superpower.’ Says now is more important than ‘the beginning.’

Bri-Wi scolds the audience for applauding, and we go to a break.

They accidentally leave the mic on, and Russert tells Williams that he finds something unbelievable. Probably the drollness of the questioning.

9:43: Williams is angry candidates went off stage during the break. Candidates question each other! Romney talks about the rise of China and Asia and being a tougher competition. To Giuliani: How do we protect American industry in this light; how do we compete economically. Giuliani jokes that he won’t answer. Giuliani talks about getting to know a country through trade. I’m waiting for him to talk about getting to second base. Instead he talks about the ability to sue in China. Says people coming out of poverty are potential customers. Again with the used car salesman technique. Says China needs to buy what we have. What is that? Who knows! Segues to the military, and attacks Bill Clinton for the peace dividend of cutting the military. Really all out on Clinton tonight. That’s almost verbatim from Romney’s stump speech at the end.

9:46: McCain goes for the jugular on the Fair Tax. He asks Huckabee about a sales tax costing more of the lower class burdens and what accounts for the resonance. Huckabee says it ends nonsense of the IRS. Huckabee says the prebate in the FairTax solves those regressive problems. Poor choice for McCain; you cannot criticize the FairTax in this forum. Says that pimps and drug dealers will now pay taxes, and jokes they are non-Republicans. I’m not sure about those though. They’re businessman at heart!

9:50: Russert asks about those paying 15% or less compared to 30% in the flat tax. Huckabee talks about a hidden corporate tax in every products. He’s not an economist.

9:51: Paul to McCain, and he’s thrilled. Paul is asked about a Presidential Group on Economics and if we will know what they are doing. McCain jokes that everyone wants to see more sunshine. Again goes back to Kemp and Gramm. He’s looking worse and worse on the economy by the second by having to answer a second question. He goes back to Phil Gramm AGAIN for a 1982 tax cut. Says he would rely on him.

9:53: Huckabee says that Romney supported the 2nd Amendment and the ban on assault weapon ban and Brady. Romney says the ban at hand was from the lobbies coming together, and compares himself to Bush on the issue. He now says we need no new legislation. He supported a ban that did not pass and now says that we need no new legislation? I’m confused.

9:55: Giuliani asks Romney about a national catastrophic fund, attacking McCain two or three times for not supporting it. McCain interjects about who the question is for. Romney says that he does support some sort of effort to provide insurance against disasters. Talks about people who live in both Florida and Massachusetts. Ah, now we’re in a Republican debate. Says no subsidization should be involved. Compares the unworkable economics to what he did in health insurance. Giuliani asks about mandates and Romney says that’s different. He either sounds like he doesn’t know anything or he is a master, depending on your perspective.

9:58: McCain for some reason gets only 30 seconds. Says there are other ways to solve and the bill being passed is just a handout. Says he’ll get everyone together. 1,000 people together is going to make something MORE workable?

9:59: Giuliani is asked about global warming and not accepting a cap on greenhouse gases. He says that you need new technology, citing nuclear power, that new and exciting technology. And clean coal. Talks incentives for new industries. Gives a laundry list of other programs. Compares to the man on the moon, in what may have been taken from the line in Clinton’s stump speech. In reality, it just shows when they both grew up.

10:01: McCain says he’s in favor of cap and trade. Says a global agreement has to include India and China. He says global warming is real and could affect Florida. Says it’s a win even if there is no climate change.

The last break, this time without mics left on.

10:06: Bri-Wi laughs in Giuliani’s face about his doubt in polls, and asks Giuliani about falling polls and terrible results. Compares himself to the NY Giants lulling people into a false sense of superiority. I find it amusing he deems how he has been crushed as “close” but, you know, more power to you, Rudy.

10:08: McCain is asked about the GOP getting behind him when a lot of people do not like him, citing a quote by his mother. Says he got Alito and Roberts through and he won Republicans in NH and SC. Mentions climate change and Israel. Says that he is proud to be a conservative but there are times to stand up, citing Rummy, the bridge to nowhere, and Abramoff. Says his country comes before his country.

10:10: Romney is asked about Bill Clinton and says he is scared of Bill in the White House with nothing to do. Yikes. Russert asks him what it means, and Romney demurs and says America does not want a team. Talks Hillary raising taxes and that the Clintons are Washington and what is Washington is wrong. Compares himself to Reagan.

10:13: Russert asks about how much of his own money he spent. He says that he spent less than Corzine, Forbes, or Bloomberg. He refuses to answer. Says that he owes no one anything. Tries to turn it into an advantage. Russert pushes again about buying an election; Romney says he’s concerned about America. He cares!

10:14: Bri-Wi asks about 44% say a Mormon president would have problems uniting the country. Romney says it’s absurd, and he’s probably right, so I’m not going to write about it. Finishes with another attack on Clinton, comparing her to ‘the Europe of old.’ You heard it here, she wants to fund the Medicis!

10:17: Does Paul want to abolish Social Security? Yes, he says, but not overnight. He’d use military savings to fund it as long as it is needed and let the young people get out.

10:18: Huckabee is asked about saving Social Security. Huckabee wants to get off a joke about Romney’s sons that seems really out of place and seems beneath him, something I didn’t even think was possible 5 minutes ago. Huckabee says that the Fair Tax will save social security. When Russert points out its unlikely, Huckabee compares it to going to the moon. This is borderline delusional and Russert gives up.

10:20: Russert asks about Reagan raising the cap on the payroll tax. Romney says he won’t do that because it is a ‘double whammy’ in that hurts people and slows the economy. WHAMMY. Talks up personal account and a different calculation for wealthier Americans, and pushing the retirement age up. Says it will not change for anyone on or near retirement.

10:23: Why is Giuliani airing a campaign in Spanish? He says that he’s comfortable reaching out if a group of people speak another primary language. Segues as quickly as possible to illegal immigration to not embarrass himself further. Somehow adds that speaking other languages in a global economy is a good idea.

10:24: Giuliani is asked about wet foot dry foot law, and asks why there is a different policy than Iran or Venezuela. Giuliani says there is a presumption for Cuba that anyone fleeing is presumed to flee persecution. Does not really address wet foot dry foot.

10:26: Does Huckabee agree with what Norris said of McCain being too old? Huckabee jokes about Norris beating too old. Says that age is not a problem with McCain, and it is not an issue for him. Again, just a little too silly.

10:28: McCain jokes that he’s going to send Stallone to attack Norris. Now that’s appropriate.

10:29: The New York Times is endorsing McCain and Clinton; says that Giuliani’s arrogance is breathtaking. Giuliani attacks the New York Times to a smattering of applause and touts his record. Apparently forgetting the NYT defended him on those trips to see his now third wife.

10:30: Romney is asked about attacks on his flip flopping. He says he is not worried, and says he can point to his record.

10:32: McCain says his temper is not an issue. He takes time to say Giuliani is an American hero and that everyone is a good person.

10:33: Huckabee is asked about a quote that his faith giving a ‘queasy feeling.” Says that is not his problem, and in America you have to respect different opinions, even no faith; then says faith is really, really important.

10:34: Will Paul hurt the party with a 3rd party candidacy? He says he is more worried about Republicans keeping to their issues, and maybe people should be more worried. Says Republicans used to fight the Dept. of Education and used to fight to stop wars. Says being strict on the Constitution is important. He’s getting really ignored tonight, not one cheap shot. The Paulites again break the agreement and cheer; it’s clear its about 15 people in the entire audience.

Bri-Wi wraps up by thanking everyone. And we’re out. Hope you enjoyed it.

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Giuliani Takes My Advice, Changes Theme Song

Yesterday, I criticized Giuliani’s theme song choice in lieu of him falling in the polls in Florida.

From First Read (my emphasis):

Giuliani began positioning himself as the candidate that can best fight terrorism and the struggling economy. He even entered the stage Thursday with a new song, “Best of Both Worlds” by Van Halen.

First things first: I’m not sure linking yourself to a band that’s gone through so much personal trouble and changing lead multiple times singers is really appropriate for some people. An interesting project might be looking at the career of Van Halen side by side with the Reagan Republicans, but that’s for another time in another forum.

Alright, let’s look at those lyrics for Best of Both worlds. You should know that the song is apparently about wanting to both spend forever with someone and to enjoy the moment now. It’s really not clear how anything is the best of both worlds. But let’s face it, you don’t listen to Van Halen for internal consistency in the lyrics:

I don’t know what I’ve been livin’ on, but
It’s not enough to fill me up
I need more than just words can say
I need everything this life can give me. Hey-hey yeah
‘Cause sometimes it’s not enough. Ow!

Come on baby, close your eyes, let go
This can be everything we dreamed
It’s not work that makes it work, oh
No, let the magic do the work for you

Let’s face it, Giuliani is going to need magic to win in Florida or anywhere significant. He’s denying that he’s going to drop out if he doesn’t win, but he’s plummeting in polls everywhere. And take absurd statements like this:

“I’m gonna continue my campaign. I have no plans to end my campaign,” Giuliani told reporters when asked whether he would continue the campaign if he did not win the Jan. 29 primary. “Of course, I anticipate winning in Florida because I don’t go into a campaign anticipating losing.

“And I have no reason not to anticipate winning,” he continued. “We’re very competitive. In some polls it’s very, very close. In some polls, we even had a poll where we are first. We’ve been second to Mitt Romney, second to John McCain. So we think we’re in good shape here.”

Giuliani said it was not a mistake to skip the early states, even as polls showed him trailing in third in Florida, where he had a healthy lead over the summer.

“I think that it was politically correct to focus on Florida,” Giuliani said. “It was the best choice when you consider all the circumstances that were presented to us about resources and strengths and weaknesses and the place where you can make your case most effectively. And the fact that this is a wide open race means that, no, I don’t think that it was a mistake.”

So let me get this straight: Giuliani never considers losing a primary he enters, and yet he’s not phased with his awful performances in the primaries that have taken place so far.

To go back to the future: Rudy can fail.

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“Who cares how much effort I put in, if it doesn’t produce any results?” A Look at Rudy Giuliani

I noted in the live blog of the NH Democrat 100 Club Dinner of how much you can learn from a theme song (which, again, was ripped off the media less than ten days afterwards). Well, Rudy Giuliani has taken to using the theme song from the movie Rudy for his campaign appearances.

This is better than his initial choice of the Clash song Rudie Can’t Fail. As I noted way back in February, “‘Rudie Can’t Fail’ by the Clash appears to be Giuliani’s official theme song. That’s right. The Clash. Rudy Giuliani. Peas in a pod, I tell you…”

Additionally, here’s what the Caucus said at the time:

… [I]t was just a little odd that when Mr. Giuliani spoke today at the California Republican Party convention, the music that blared as he entered and left was “Rudie Can’t Fail,” by The Clash. A punk band that smashed guitars and sang about riots seems like an uncomfortable fit for the law-and-order former mayor. Especially when the song is about a jobless good-for-nothing, and includes this passage:

“How you get a rude and a reckless?
Don’t you be so crude and a feckless
You been drinking brew for breakfast”

So Rudy finally realized his first choice was poor. And now that he’s an underdog candidate, he looks to another version of his namesake, the themesong from the movie Rudy.

Let’s itemize the problems with this.

• First, it’s a reminder of his Catholicism. Notre Dame and all. And in case you did not know, Giuliani has some problems in that area, in the same way John Kerry did. And some other problems that John Kerry certainly did not have.
• Second, Rudy in the movie was a horrible football player. Really bad. Sure, he cared a lot. But he was utterly unqualified to be a football player and still dedicated his life to it.
• Third, Rudy in the movie was embarrassingly bad in the beginning, and just tolerably bad enough to get a cameo on the field at the end of the last game in a meaningless minute. He did not succeed on the field, and was looked at as borderline mentally ill by a great many people; success not actual success but was merely getting on to the field.

Giuliani, comparatively, has had a miserable beginning to the race. Fred Thompson had 8 delegates to Giuliani’s 1 and had to drop out. Giuliani has plummeted from a commanding first to a distant fourth in the national Republican polls over the past two months. He has not finished better than fourth anywhere so far. He was an embarrassing sixth in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire, and a distant sixth in both Nevada and South Carolina.

On top of this, Giuliani stopped paying certain members of his staff this month, signifying a money crunch. (Or more accurately, signifying less and less money coming in, more than likely).

A final insult came when not one but two polls in New York state showed him down double digits to John McCain. Even after some more favorable polls, Giuliani is still down significantly in New York in the RCP Average.

A final indignity, perhaps, was his appearance at Daytona Speedway:

The former New York City mayor sat in the front passenger seat of his “Florida is Rudy Country” bus as it took a lap around the empty track at high speed, as the theme song from the movie “Rudy” played from the speaker system.

Then, while chatting with drivers and pit crews, Giuliani repeatedly pleaded to drive around the track in a pace car, growing increasingly disappointed as aides said he could not.

“Can I drive a car?” he asked. When told he did not have the proper NASCAR license, he asked to drive a pace car. NASCAR aides told him that he was going to be late for a town hall meeting.

“All right, well let’s come back, one more time,” Giuliani said. “During the campaign. I want to ride a pace car. Will you let me ride a pace car? Do I need a license for that?”

And then, he pleaded, “One time. Boys, one time. We’re all little boys, don’t you know that.”

He was told no.

Now, Giuliani is seeing his poll numbers in Florida plummet. Even before Thompson exited the race, he was losing support to McCain. Now, he’s made it clear that everything for him is riding on Florida, and he’s going in the wrong direction.

Frankly, the Giuliani campaign talks of running a national campaign and yet has finished very poorly everywhere. If he had finished second or third or fourth everywhere but be generally competitive, he would likely have a major advantage right now. As it is, his back is really against the wall and anything short of an outright victory will leave him on the sidelines for the convention.

Oh, and it’s not that hard to find a perfect theme song for Giuliani.

[Image Credit: Flickr user marcn under a Creative Commons license]

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (01/25/08)

This podcast takes evaluates the current state of the campaign and looks ahead to Nevada, South Carolina and Florida…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Live Blog Of ABC News/Fox News/WMUR Republican Debate In New Hampshire (01/05/07)

This evening, the Republican presidential candidates will participate in the the ABC News/Facebook/WMUR debate in New Hampshire. The participating candidates are Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

7:00: Charles Gibson is explaining the criteria for being in the debate, not mentioning who was excluded. Gibson says the first 45 minutes will be discussions on three topics (perhaps akin to the NPR debate). The second half will be a more traditional format.

7:03: Diane Sawyer’s disembodied voice takes over, as she discusses the situation with Stephanopoulos. They review poll information and what not of both sides, noting that Obama and McCain have momentum.

7:05: ABC has their political team lined up as if they’re about to film a glamor shot of them walking down the street.

7:06: Facebook is here! Diane Sawyer says Facebook does not decide the debate, as they segue into people on the streets.

7:07: The press room is in disarray as the internet suddenly goes out.

7:08: The Republicans are on stage, left to right: McCain, Thompson, Paul, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani, who is smiling as broadly as possible. They have desks.

7:09: Candidate George Bush is contrasted with Bush at war. Would the candidates run against Bush’s foreign policy or for it?

7:11: Huckabee says there are times of arrogance, and that strength has to be used with full understanding of strength, specifically referencing Rumsfeld. Says we should go to war with the army we need, and with irresistible force, and not letting politicians interrupt.

7:12: Thompson says Huckabee has changed, that the number of troops was not what Huckabee was referencing. Says we are not arrogant, and that a war with radical Islam has been declared against us. Says he agrees there was a flawed strategy, and that they are winning now.
7:14: Giuliani references Bush going on offense after 9/11 to prevent another attack, and positive changes have been instituted as well as mistakes having been made. Giuliani says a major problem is that the military is far too small.

7:15: Gibson wonders if they believe in the Bush doctrine of preemptive war if the country feels threatened. McCain says he agrees and gives Bush credit for not having another attack in America since 9/11, since Bush would have been blamed for any other attack. Says America is not safe, but America is safer. McCain says he was the only one who disagreed at the time with Rumsfeld, but there is success now in Iraq. References Petraeus. Also McCain thanks Giuliani for leadership on 9/11.

7:17: Paul says he agreed with the foreign policy that Bush ran on, and compares Bush’s foreign policy to Clinton’s. Says this is the first time a nation accepted as a policy that “we start the wars.” Talks of the nature of the threat of terrorism. Says America is not attacked because it is free and prosperous, but rather because we invade and occupy, and have done so long before 9/11.

7:19: Romney says Paul does not understand radical jihadism, as it is intent on bringing down western and free governments. Romney says strategy has to be moved from military threats to help move Islam towards rule of law in the Middle East to help them, and that the military is part of the solution.

7:21: Thompson says preemption did not suddenly appear as an option. Says America has many threats now, and that different weaponry is being faced, not Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Says we should go in where “we should and where we are able to.”

7:22: Giuliani says he gave back 10 million to Saudis, and has nothing to do with foreign policy, but about perverting religion into hating freedom of religion and freedom of women.

7:23: Paul wants everyone to imagine if someone did this to us. Romney interrupts and says that Paul is reading the propaganda not their writings. Cites Bhutto and Sadat as Paul tries to interrupt back in vain. Thompson asked who we invaded before 9/11, and Paul says there was bases.

7:25: Huckabee says that he supported the surge and the President when Romney did not and Romney criticized Bush on 60 Minutes, but he is not running for Bush’s third term. Everyone tries to interrupt, and Huckabee says the threat comes from the jihadists, not Islam.

7:26: Romney and Huckabee argue over whether he read Huckabee’s article. Romney said he supported the surge from the beginning and McCain deserves credit, and to not mischaracterize his position. Huckabee rebuts “Which one?” to a huge WHOA in the press room. He half-heartedly defends himself before Paul gets the nod.

7:29: Paul asks why people attack the US and not Switzerland. Giuliani gives a laundry list of non-American sites such as Bali and the Munich Olympics. This is escalating into a giant argument.

7:30: Giuliani says there is a need for more interaction and trade. Paul asks why we support their dictators. A little more yelling at him, and Gibson interacts.

7:31: Question from Bush! He asks what principles people believe in.

7:32: McCain talks about principles — focuses on his basic campaign theme of restoring trust in government. Chides his opponents for not backing the surge as strongly as he did, then attacks Democrats saying that if we had done what they wanted “Al Qaeda would be trumpeting around the world.”

7:34: Now, onto McCain’s principles…this should be brief. And as expected, he doesn’t really discuss principles other than family and the desire to strengthen family through better schools, healthcare, economy and security. *shock* Romney didn’t actually discuss his principles.

7:37: Gibson goes over the flip-flop record of each candidate. Giuliani says that there are some beliefs you change and some you never will. Says even Reagan could not accomplish every single thing he wanted, but the general philosophy stays the same. Huckabee says its about principles deep inside us. Huckabee cites the Declaration of Independence. This is getting a lot of eye rolls in this room but will go over great among actual people. (Reporters are not people, I have learned.)

7:39: Not a right to be happy, but to pursue happiness. Policies reflect challenges of the moment, and priorities certainly change.

7:40: Thompson says principles should be based on the Constitution and separation of powers and federalism, and that you can learn from looking at what the founders stated. Cites the 10th Amendment

7:42: Paul asks why there are deviations from the Constitution; cites the declaration of war, monetary system, welfare state. Asks why we treat others like a bully. He is starting to rant about all his beliefs at once. He’s losing his self control.

7:43: Moving on to health care. News clip say that forcing people to buy their own, and not employer based is a larger change. Gibson says we are the only country that does not insure everyone.

7:44: Giuliani says we have the best health care system in the world. He says that people come to the US for health care. Thompson and McCain agree. Giuliani says the problem is not enough people buying their own health care.

7:45: Gibson says the math of tax cuts does not add up.

7:46: McCain says the problem is not quality, but inflation that needs to be dealt with so that health care costs become reasonable. He does the preventative measures schtick, and concludes by insulting Canadian medicare.

7:48: Romney touts the Massachusetts health care plan, which required no new money. Romney says a connector between people and the companies helps and solves the problems the report mentioned. Romney should delve into details more often, he’s really at his best right here. Finishes by attacking Hillarycare.

7:49: Paul says the problem is the trillion dollar war, although inflation is a problem. Paul mentions people in America going to India for heart surgery. (Medical tourism is real). Talks about borrowing money from China to finance the war. Good, but he’s getting shrill again.

7:50: Thompson has to be woken up to answer the question. Seriously. He’s stunned by Ron Paul. Paul jokes about Thompson trying to understand, and that sacrificing care is not something people want to do. Says the markets work, but total coverage will probably never be achieved.

7:52: Romney says he has not backed off of mandates, as Thompson jokes about him. Says the principle of personal responsibility is key. Thompson asks what the penalty for not agreeing to the mandate. Says the question is personal responsibility for those who can buy insurance. Says he would not mandate his plan at the federal level, but he would recommend it for every state, but disagreements are acceptable, citing Schwarzenegger.

7:55: Huckabee attacks the health care system, and how it waits until catastrophic injury, and prevention is key. He’s said this before.

7:56: Romney and Giuliani both try to jump in and Giuliani wins, touting his health savings account, that incentivizes wellness. This is not really persuasive in the amounts Giuliani talks about.

7:57: Gibson challenges people to substantively address real problems with paying for health care and they all demur from him. Weak.

7:58: McCain says that payment should be on totality, not individually based. He says the pharmaceutical companies are a problem and should compete. Romney says htey are not the problem, McCain interrupts that they are. Romney cites certain problems in the details and again is really compelling compared to him addressing broad themes.

Commercial Break!

8:04: Gibson jokes that no one ran away. Question regarding illegal immigration on McCain. Does he have the same plan for a path to citizenship?

8:05: McCain says sure but that the American people lost faith in government and that the borders need to be secured. Also says those illegals who committed crimes ought be deported. Also that there should be temporary worker program. Says ultimately they are God’s children and the issue needs to be dealt with delicately.

8:07: Romney says that allowing people to stay here is a form of amnesty, and there should be no pathway to legalization for those who are here. Tancredo-ish for sure. Says it is unfair for those to stay. McCain tries to interrupt to point out the pragmatic problems.

8:09: Giuliani says there should be a system at the borders, and that the priority has to be illegal immigrants who are here who have committed crimes, citing Romney’s idea as unrealistic. Cites his plan for an ID card, and those who do not come forward should be deported.

8:10: McCain says Romney described his plan as not amnesty and was fair. Romney says it is a technicality, and Giuliani tries to interrupt. Romney says all plans were reasonable but did not endorse them. McCain says it was more than a fine, and says Romney “can spend all your fortune on attack ads but it still will not be true” to another WHOA in the press room. Romney is taking a beating. Romney rebuts saying allowing people to stay here is amnesty, and there should be no special right. They’re talking over each other and McCain says grandmothers should not be deported. Thompson says Romney had a quote about supporting the plan, Romney says he was misquoted, and McCain with another zing as he says if you keep changing your positions that you will be misquoted. Lots of cross talk and Romney agrees that deporting 12 million is unreasonable. Giuliani says Reagan did amnesty, and would be in one of Mitt’s negative commercials. Wow. Giuliani says that what has to be done is stopping it at the border and imposing conditions is not amnesty. Differentiates the Giuliani/McCain plan from the Thompson/Romney plan on penalties. Thompson says rewarding people for behavior in any way is amnesty. Paul and Huckabee are completely staying out of this. Thompson says the problem is taking responsibility on the issue, and sanctuary cities are a problem, such as Giuliani’s NYC. Giuliani says that he only allowed children to go to school, and illegals to go to the hospital and report crimes. Thompson says that Giuliani tried to sue to overcome a bill outlawing amnesty.

8:19: Huckabee is brought in with a weird line that no one here understands. He says that a fence can be built in 18 months, and that he agrees with Thompson that it is about national security. Says people should then go back to get in the back of the line, because people in the US should not live in fear.

8:21: Paul says he gets worried about a tamper proof ID because everyone would logically have to have such an ID. Says that the excessive welfare state is the root of the problem, and are an incentive for people to come. Romney wants to understand that the discussion is about illegal immigration not legal immigration.

8:23: What if Obama is the nominee? Why not vote for Obama specifically? Silly sort of question. Says Obama’s health care plan would break the bank. Says Washington is the problem. Says that he would cite change he brought in the private sector and in the Olympics.

8:25: Thompson says Obama adopted the positions of every liberal interest group, and that he’s not been definitive on that so far. Talks about lowering taxes and avoiding the welfare state that would hurt America in terms of national security.

8:27: McCain says that he agrees Romney is the candidate of change. Says Obama has no security credentials. Romney says the personal barbs are not necessary. Romney says experience did not matter in Iowa and a record is not enough. Giuliani says Obama has no executive experience; says it could be change for bad. Says Obama voted on a timetable for retreat. Huckabee cites differences on 2nd Amendment and the role of government, and taxes and national defense and same sex marriage. He points to Huckabee for broadening the debate. Says that on the other hand that Obama excites people about leading across the spectrum.

8:31: Paul cites similarities to Obama, in that their campaigns both appeal to youth. He says personal liberty and economic arguments are the difference. He finishes by criticizing the welfare state.

8:32: Question about high gas prices.

8:33: Paul says gas prices are inflationary, as it has raised as gold stayed flat. Also says that oil has dramatically increased as a result of the war. Talks about the devaluing of the dollar causing the problem.

8:34: McCain says some of the oil money will go to terrorists and dictators, and greenhouse gases need to be addressed, and technology has to be reduced. He cites enough evidence that the planet could be in danger. No one jumps in to that.

8:35: Is Thompson worried about excess profits of oil companies? He takes note of it, but says nothing can be done. Says throwing rocks at each other will do nothing; cites Chinese demand for oil. He says diversification of oil suppliers is necessary, along with clean coal. Says there is no strong regulation in this country. (Chrysler? Airlines?) Giuliani says an Apollo program has to be done to diversify. Cites nuclear power specifically and a lack of progress in the last 30 years. Cites bipartisanship in getting a man on the moon. Huckabee says lower taxes on innovation would incentify things. Also dramatic incentives, such as a billion dollar reward on a 100mpg car. Thompson cracks that there will be no windfall profit tax on that. He says that McCain is right that we pay for both sides of the war on terror. Romney says we can get to where these people say but it will require a far bigger investment in innovation. Says that defense against tort lawsuits is a root of the problem.

And it is over!

Gibson introduces the Democratic candidates, and they all briefly share the stage. A whole bunch of really awkward handshakes and quite a few hugs! When Rudy and Hillary met each other, there’s some hoots and hollers in the press room.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (01/03/08)

This podcast covers the results of the Iowa Caucuses. We discuss the significance of Huckabee’s victory, the state of the Republican race after Iowa and we also dissect Obama’s victory and analyze the rest of the Democratic race.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Live Blog Of Concession/Winning Speeches

9:00: Reminder, Dems: Obama, Edwards, Clinton; GOP: Huckabee, Romney, Thompson/McCain/Paul

9:09: Andrea Mitchell calls it a “remarkably bad outcome for Hillary”

9:10: Matthews says the Clinton comeback begins now.

9:11: John Edwards is making an appearance, smiling; Matthews cites Edwards’ need to win in order to be relevant after Iowa. Elizabeth Edwards introduces him, and thanks everyone.

9:13: Elizabeth Edwards cites their campaign being outspent 6-1 combined. That’s REALLY disingenuous. Edwards speaks, saying that the status quo lost and change won. Essentially declares the death of Clinton.

9:15: Edwards talks about problems with health care, including a girl who was denied coverage of health insurance, and also the man who could not talk for 50 years. He also cites the Maytag plant closing. Cites the Roosevelts and Truman as presidents with backbone. By the way, it’s unclear if the insurance company really was responsible as Edwards claims:

Mark Geragos, attorney for the girl’s family, said he plans to ask the district attorney to press murder or manslaughter charges against CIGNA HealthCare in the case. The insurer “maliciously killed her” because it did not want to bear the expense of her transplant and aftercare, Geragos said. Video Watch as the family takes on CIGNA »

Nataline had been battling leukemia and received a bone marrow transplant from her brother. She developed a complication, however, that caused her liver to fail.

Doctors at UCLA determined she needed a transplant and sent a letter to CIGNA Healthcare on December 11. The Philadelphia-based health insurance company denied payment for the transplant.

On Thursday, about 150 teenagers and nurses protested outside CIGNA’s office in Glendale. As the protesters rallied, the company reversed its decision and said it would approve the transplant.

Despite the reversal, CIGNA said in an e-mail statement before she died that there was a lack of medical evidence showing the procedure would work in Nataline’s case.

“Our hearts go out to Nataline and her family, as they endure this terrible ordeal,” the company said. ” … CIGNA HealthCare has decided to make an exception in this rare and unusual case and we will provide coverage should she proceed with the requested liver transplant.”

9:19: Edwards rails against corporations, including oil companies. Every cliché is hit. He even drops that Elizabeth has breast cancer, and others will too. It’s a litany of sob stories, including homeless veterans. Says America can fix all this.

9:22: Edwards says change won. He’s going on and on, possibly to minimize others getting on 11pm newscasts on the east coast? Just a guess. He hasn’t said much at all.

9:23: Matthews notes that neither Edwards congratulated the victor, and that they did not want to concede in ‘04; the campaign theme song of Kerry kicks in. (The Rising, by Springsteen).

9:25: The Clintons are on stage, with a large group of people including Vilsack, Albright, and Clark. In other words: we still have a lot of support. A ‘Hillary’ chant breaks out as Bill gives a thumbs up. She promises to take the enthusiasm to New Hampshire and ‘it is a great night for Democrats.’ Says this turnout means Democrats will win. She congratulates Obama and Edwards and thanks Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, and Biden by name.

9:27: Her demeanor is pitch perfect for such a disappointing night. Pivots to focus on how a winning with a candidate “who can go the distance … and be the best president on day one.” Cites her plans to run a national campaign through the early states, while chiding independents and Republicans who came late to the table.

9:30: Families are good and need to be kept good.

9:32: She is ready to lead. Cites health care and energy. Also cites education reforms. Says she is more optimistic about the country than her campaign. Says a lot of people could not caucus - those in the military. Also says people work at night. This sounds like a line of excuses.

9:34: Thanks the unions across the country who support her. She says the election is about the future (uhm, no crap). And that’s it, and everyone starts hugging each other.

9:37: Huck! He’s ready to go. Chuck Norris is right behind him, and smiling like a cheshire cat. He says he loves Iowa a lot tonight. Thanks everyone who treated him with respect and listened to him. Really humble and personable approach that really works in direct contrast to most of the field. Says his wife will be a great First Lady. Thanks his children.

9:41: Says his campaign starts in Iowa and ends in Washington a year from now. Says money has proven to be overrated. Says that tonight could forever chan gethe political system. (Uhm, probably not.) Says choice was for a change, but change can be for the worse or better.

9:43: The greatest generation can be the next generation. (Another anti-boomer candidate?) Says the election and country is not about him, but tonight will start a “prairie fire” across the country. Says the people are the ruling class in America.

9:45: Huck cites GK Chesterson, a Christian apologetic, and says people must love people behind them not hate those in front of him as Chuck Norris stands directly behind him. Says we must do whatever it takes to do what is right for those in America. Reminds everyone that this is the beginning. Again thanks Iowa.

9:51: Tim Russert looks like he’s been drinking whiskey all day. He’s staring at Brian Williams a bit uncomfortably.

10:02: Romney spoke at the same time as Huckabee, citing the Olympics as different events having different results.

10:03: Obama takes the stage with his family. They leave and Obama takes the podium.

10:04: Says the cynics have been proven wrong. He’s in ‘big speech’ mode. Cites New Hampshire next, and the rest of America after that. Cites the big turnout, and Democrats, Republicans, and Independents standing together for change and for one country. Starts echoing the 04 Convention speech with uniting red states and blue states. Says time has come to take power back from lobbyists and for an honest president. Says he can be that president if New Hampshire gives him the same support. Unbelievable atmosphere compared to the other campaigns. Says he will make health care affordable and available to everyone. Promises a middle class tax cut. Speaks of freeing America from the tyranny of oil. The speech is focused on him as a president, and mixing that message with his campaign theme.

10:11: Thanks organizers and precinct captains; no one else thanked them. Thanks his wife, “the closer on the campaign trail.”

10:12: Says it was not done for him, but for American ideals and fighting against odds for what people believe in.

10:13: Says nights like this justify the hard times in a campaign, and this is the moment it all began. Says the improbably and “what Washington said was inevitable” are torn down. Says politics of cynicism were beaten down. Says hope is not blind, but that something better is available if it is worked for. Says hope was what inspired the American Revolution, World War II, and the civil rights movement.

10:17: Obama says it’s about the USA and wraps it up to thunderous applause.

10 :18: Quickly over to Biden, who is dropping out. He thanks film makers and those that are supporting him. Thanks his wife.

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Google Adword Watch: Fred Thompson And John Edwards Ignored

Google Adwords provide some excellent insight into the thinking and strategy of campaigns.  We saw this very early in the election cycle during the Republican Adword war that Google eventually stopped because it violated the terms of advertisements and with Mike Bloomberg purchasing election related AdWords months before the buzz of the last few days.  With the Iowa Caucus tomorrow and the NH Primary in just 4 days, I figured it was worth taking another look at the state of Google Adwords.  Here’s what came up…

Mike Huckabee is running Adwords on searches for Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Duncan Hunter.  Interestingly, Huckabee is not running Adwords against neither Fred Thompson nor Ron Paul.

Rudy Giuliani is running Adwords against John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson as well as the top two Democrats - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

John McCain is only running Adwords against Rudy Giuliani (as an aside, this ad argues that McCain is more electable than Rudy).

The takeaways from this information:

• Huckabee doesn’t consider Fred Thompson a threat, at all.
• John McCain is going to start pushing his electability in coming days/weeks.
• Only Obama and Clinton drew Adwords from their opponents, the other GOP candidates are not running them against John Edwards.
• Democrats don’t use AdWords in order to dip into supporters for opposition.
• Aside: the operator of this blog, who is an Obama supporter, must have paid an awful lot of money to advertise on searches for John Edwards.  At this point, the blog doesn’t really contain very much other than a strong reminder about the candidates’ positions on the Iraq war (it’s not flattering of Edwards).

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A Rudy Co-Chair Said WHAT?

Via TPM Election Central:

John Deady, the co-chair of New Hampshire Veterans for Rudy, is standing by the comments he made in the controversial interview with The Guardian we posted on below, in which he said that “the Muslims” need to be chased “back to their caves.”

In an interview with me, Deady confirmed that when he made the comments, he was referring to all Muslims.

“I don’t subscribe to the principle that there are good Muslims and bad Muslims,” Deady told me by phone from his home in New Hampshire. “They’re all Muslims.”

When a mere campaign volunteer to Hillary got caught forwarding the madrassa email about Barack Obama, it was national news for days and she had to quit the campaign. While the parallel isn’t perfect, Deady’s comments are more explosive than the act of forwarding the email is, and Deady is more than a mere volunteer to Rudy’s campaign.

Giuliani clearly does not share those beliefs; even his most vicious opponent could look at his record and find that he’s not anything like that. However, presidents and those campaigning have a responsibility to reign in silly statements and actions by those they appoint to official positions. Something this egregious demands some sort of formal action, not a mere off the cuff refuting.

However, Giuliani has a history of keeping his friends close, and … when in doubt, closer. So taking an action on this could show to what extent he will allow friends to have free reign. With stories like Bernard Kerik out there, symbolic action can be important.

Update: The Rudy campaign reacted, swiftly and appropriately.

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Live Blog of Rudy Giuliani on Hardball (December 28, 2007)

5:32 PM: Matthews has just blasted Huckabee for saying that there needs to be a watch for suspcious entrance of Pakistanis into the country 13 hours after Bhutto was killed.

5:34: How would you catch Bin Laden? Giuliani says more emphasis needs to be on Afghanistan, and that this event could be an event that forces action, and that in cooperation with more action with the Pakistan government, and says pressure is on Musharraf. Giuliani says a cause of death should be made clear, stability resotred, and then elections; he said that should be a fairly quick process.

5:36: Does he blame Bush? Not really, but admits efforts need to be redoubled, and more has to be done. Giuliani says he has personally spoken with Bush, and bringing UBL to justice is more than symbolic, and is important to everyone.

5:37: When will he win a state? Giuliani says you have to win your share of the primaries on or before Feb. 5, citing Florida, Iowa, NH, California, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. When pressed about the timetable, Giuliani demurs, citing his organization on the Feb. 5 states. He also declined to make any predictions in Iowa.

5:40: Giuliani says he the best prepared to lead America, and has the most experience of anyone running, citing how difficult a job NY mayor was even before 9/11, also citing his fiscal conservatism. Matthews actually - strangely - makes him say he is the best man to lead America.

That was fairly pointless. But in between a story about a butter sculpture and old polling numbers, what do you expect?

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Drug Company Sent Giuliani To Avoid Prosecution

The New York Times today took a look at Giuliani’s work for Purdue Pharma. He did publicity work for the group which was under fire for its aggressive marketing of Oxycontin:

As a celebrity, Mr. Giuliani helped the company win several public relations battles, playing a role in an effort by Purdue to persuade an influential Pennsylvania congressman, Curt Weldon, not to blame it for OxyContin abuse.

Despite these efforts, Purdue suffered a crushing defeat in May at the hands of Mr. Brownlee when the company and three top executives pleaded guilty to criminal charges.

The article also indicates that a deal was reached with the DEA for Purdue to pay a $2 million fine; the original recommendation was for $20 million; at the time, Giuliani was also working with the DEA to form a DEA museum. The DEA denied that the final settlement was inappropriate, however, despite the apparent conflict of interest.

Lastly, the victims of Oxycontin abuse were unhappy with the plea agreement:

After years of denial and a high-profile public relations campaign, the company was forced to admit that it had misled doctors and patients. But to the parents of young people who had died getting high on OxyContin, the absence of jail time was evidence of Mr. Giuliani’s influence.

They voiced that view inside and outside the packed courtroom in Abingdon where the men were sentenced in July.

Mr. Giuliani was 360 miles away at the time, campaigning in Myrtle Beach, S.C., where he met with local firefighters and talked about 9/11. But his role in the case had been so substantial and sustained, the presiding judge felt compelled to address the parents’ concerns.

“It has been implied that because Mr. Giuliani is a prominent national politician, Purdue may have received a favorable deal from the government solely because of politics,” said the judge, James P. Jones of United States District Court. “I completely reject this claim.”

Even today, some of those parents are not persuaded. Ed Bisch, whose son died of an OxyContin overdose, said that he believed that Purdue got a free pass for years thanks to Mr. Giuliani.

“It was all because of Giuliani,” said Mr. Bisch. “And he got to take the money.”

Judge Jones was nominated to the bench by President Clinton and before being nominated was a prominent Democrat in Virginia.

This might be a story a Democratic nominee brings up to gain ground on health care should Giuliani be on the ticket come summer.

Also, ABC news reported on this back in May.

[Photo Credit: ABC News]

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