Presidential Candidacies, Even Failed Ones, Offer Increased Influence To Candidates

This is hardly scientific, but it’s worth noting that presidential campaigns, even failed ones, have a tendency of increasing a candidate’s influence/power (as one would expect).

Below is a table indicating the candidate’s power ranking in their respective chamber for the years 2005 through 2008.  It’s worth noting that the sudden changes in some of the rankings between 2006 and 2007 is mostly the result in changeover from Republican to Democratic control.

[Table=7]

[Table=8]

[* = former candidate]
[Source: Congress.org]

In retrospect, some campaigns, which at the time made no sense at all, make at least a bit more sense now, while some continue to haunt my brain to this day.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/21/07)

This week’s podcast covers: 1) Value Voters Summit; 2) Mike Huckabee’s Moment?; 3) Candidates from all parties attack Hillary Clinton, She responds…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/14/07)

This week’s podcast covers: 1) Gore gets the nobel peace prize and what it means for presidential politics; 2) Republicans debate economic issues, Fred Thompson gets shut out of the campaign by Giuliani and Romney, McCain campaign still has some life left in it; 3) Barack Obama makes waves in Iowa, most Democrats pull out of the Michigan primary, Edwards and Richardson in Nevada; and more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Daily Briefing (October 9, 2007)

Here’s what’s news today…

• GOP Debate sponsored by CNBC/MSNBC/The Wall Street Journal.  This debate will be moderated by Chris Mathews and will focus on economic issues.  It’ll be Fred Thompson’s first debate.  It will air on CNBC at 4PM ET and on MSNBC at 9PM ET.
• Chris Matthews warns candidates that they better not suggest that he is partisan.
• Given the attention the economy is sure to get this week, Hillary Clinton rolled out an economic plan yesterday.  Of note, Clinton’s plan proposes a method for dealing with the collapsing mortgage industries by expanding the federal government’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs.
• Obama challenges Clinton on her vote for the resolution which allowed for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to be labeled a terrorist organization.  Obama stated, “Sen. Clinton and others should have learned from 2002 that if you give President George Bush a blank check that he’ll cash it. You’ve got to be very cautious and very sober regarding any kind of language or rationale that leads him to make more disastrous foreign policy decisions.”  It’s worth noting that Obama failed to vote on this legislation.
• Rudy Giuliani’s law firm is sued.  Complaint alleges that the firm and others schemed to steal $10 million.
• Joe Biden and Sam Brownback will be conducting a joint event in Iowa to highlight their proposal on an Iraq solution through partitioning the country.

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Mitt Romney: Not A Fan Of Medical Marijuana, Prefers “Alternatives”

On Saturday (10/6/07), while at a campaign stop in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney was confronted about Medical Marijuana by a current user who suffers from muscular dystrophy. Clayton Holton, who is confined to a wheelchair, claims that he and his doctors believe that he demonstrates some of the advantages of medicinal marijuana. The exchange between Romney and Mr. Holton is as follows [video]:

HOLTON: My question for you is will you arrest me or my doctors if I get medical marijuana.

ROMNEY: I am not in favor of medical marijuana being legal in the country.

HOLTON: Excuse me, will you please answer my question?

ROMNEY: I think I have. I am not in favor of legalizing medical marijuana.

Romney instead would prefer that Holton (and others who seek medical marijuana) use alternative pain medication or “synthetic marijuana.” Mitt Romney’s past position on medical marijuana seems somewhat consistent with his view here; although, it’s worth nothing that there is a serious lack of information about Romney’s position on the issue. The only related piece of information that I was able to dig up is that UMass is one of only two universities that are legally allowed to produce high potency marijuana for medical testing. The license was granted to them back in 2003. Romney did not oppose this research, but he did not actively condone it either. So take that for what you will…

In terms of medical marijuana in a more general sense, here are some of his rivals’ position on the issue…

• Rudy Giuliani: Opposes medical marijuana. He believes that it is a back door way of legalizing recreational use of marijuana. He also does not believe that there are any medical benefits to marijuana.
• John McCain: Opposes medical marijuana. He believes that it’s a gateway drug.
• Tom Tancredo: Supports a state’s right to enact a medical marijuana law.
• Ron Paul: Supports medical marijuana (as well as legalizing recreational use of marijuana).
• Duncan Hunter: Opposes medical marijuana
• Sam Brownback: Opposes medical marijuana. Does not believe that it has any use as a pain medication or for any medicinal purpose.
• Mike Huckabee: Opposes medical marijuana. Does not believe that it has any medicinal use.
• Fred Thompson: Seems to oppose medical marijuana, but may be open to the possibility (assuming of course, it would help his momma). Here’s his most recent quote on the issue:

“Well, you’ve got federal drug laws. We have federal drugs laws in this country that are involved. I’ll tell you what my heart says about this. I would think that surely, in the era that we live in, and things that are helping my 87-year-old momma, things that are helping so many of us, and the revolution that we have seen in terms of medicine in this country, that marijuana would not be the only thing that’s going to relieve the pain and suffering for these people. That there would be other things that we could turn to first. Now if somebody can convince me that’s the only thing that will keep someone from undergoing that kind of suffering, I’ll have to take a new look at it, but that’s the way I approach it until you educate me further.”

I don’t think this issue will matter much overall in the election, but responding to an infirmed persona in a way that seems unkind or insensitive could have political effects. Accordingly, if you’re opposed to medical marijuana either avoid contact with anyone that potentially looks like they use it or be prepared to give a heartfelt answer explaining your position in a way that does not make you seem cruel. In all, I’d say Romney avoided a fuss over his response, but I think it could have been better, especially given his experience with multiple sclerosis through his wife.

Related at 2008Central.net:

• Rudy Giuliani Speaks Out Against Medical Marijuana While Campaigning In New Hampshire (07/10/2007)

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (10/07/07)

This podcast covers 1) preliminary fundraising figures, 2) the Ron Paul Effect, 3) Democratic National Committee and issues with Florida, Michigan and South Carolina, 4) Weekly Round Up.

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Weekend Calendar Preview (September 21-23, 2007)

Republicans gather in Michigan over the weekend, but otherwise it’s a fairly regular campaign weekend.

Barack Obama…

• Obama campaigns in Iowa Friday and Saturday.

Bill Richardson…

• Richardson fundraises tonight in New Mexico and takes a weekend off the trail.

Dennis Kucinich…

• Kucinich starts a three day swing through California on Saturday; his trip wraps up with a visit to the Tonight Show on Monday.

Hillary Clinton…

• Clinton has the weekend off until a fundraiser with John Grisham scheduled for Sunday afternoon in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Joe Biden…

• Biden has Iowa visits lined up on Friday.

John Edwards…

• Edwards campaigns in Iowa today, and Elizabeth Edwards campaigns today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Duncan Hunter…

• Hunter address the Michigan GOP conference Friday and the Eagle Forum Saturday in St. Louis.

Fred Thompson…

• Thompson addressed the NRA today in Washington, and addresses the Michigan leadership conference tomorrow night - along with John McCain.

John McCain…

• McCain and Thompson both address the leadership conference in Michigan tomorrow night (not together, just sequentially, to clarify). McCain also addressed the NRA today and held a fundraiser in Indianapolis.

Mike Huckabee…

• Huckabee was also scheduled to address the NRA today, and the Michigan conference tomorrow.

Mitt Romney…

• Romney fundraised in Illinois and Indiana today, and in addition to addressing the leadership forum in Michigan tomorrow. Sunday he heads to California to start a week of campaigning and fundraising there.

Ron Paul…

• Paul addresses the Michigan conference tomorrow morning, before fundraising in Chicago later in the day.

Rudy Giuliani…

• Giuliani addressed the Northern Virginia Technology council, the NRA, and then the Michigan leadership conference on Friday.

Sam Brownback…

• Brownback addresses Michigan leadership conference tomorrow morning.

Tom Tancredo…

• Tancredo addresses the Michigan leadership conference tomorrow morning, and has campaign events scheduled for Sunday in New Hampshire.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Giuliani Attacks Clinton Over MoveOn Ad

This controversy started last week when Moveon.org ran this ad in the New York Times in advance of Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker testifying to Congress. (More on the ad here)

Republicans immediately responded (full list of responses is after the jump), in past substantively to the ad, and in part in response to this article in the New York Post regarding a significant discount that the New York Times allegedly gave MoveOn.org. The New York Times responded here, saying that MoveOn paid the standby rate that is standard for issue groups; it’s also the rate that Giuliani would end up paying to run his own ad.

Hillary Clinton said the following to Petraeus and Crocker on Tuesday:

(in part) ….[T]oday you are testifying about the current status of our policy in Iraq and the prospects of that policy. It is a policy that you have been ordered to implement by the president. And you have been made the de facto spokesmen for what many of us believe to be a failed policy.

Despite what I view as your rather extraordinary efforts in your testimony both yesterday and today, I think that the reports that you provide to us really require the willing suspension of disbelief.

In any of the metrics that have been referenced in your many hours of testimony, any fair reading of the advantages and disadvantages accruing post-surge, in my view, end up on the downside.

Giuliani responded, saying the following in Atlanta two days later (Audio):

“[I] call upon the New York Times to give us the same rate, the discount, heavily discounted rate they gave MoveOn.org for that abominable ad–that was, in a very, very coincidental way, published on the day that General Petraeus testified–in which MoveOn.org, which is well known for its character assassination of Republicans, decided to participate in character assassination of an American General in a time of war. This is unprecedented. And we are going to ask The New York Times to allow us tomorrow to print an ad that will obviously take the opposite view. We believe, unlike Hillary Clinton, that General Petraeus is telling the truth. We think that her attack on General Petraeus was a follow up to the MoveOn.org/Times attack.

“I’ll tell you what she said. It’s pretty simple. You go interpret it because this is typical, how can I say this in the kindest way about the Clintons, not the most direct way of saying what it is you’re trying to say. This is what she said to General Petraeus: ‘I think the reports that you provide to us really require the willing suspension of disbelief.’ The willing suspension of disbelief I imagine means saying that the General wasn’t telling the truth. And I believe that in a time of war–with a General about whom there is no question about the General’s integrity. I agree with the success that he’s had and I think we should support that success, other Americans might not agree with the success that he had. They have a right to not agree. What I don’t think should happen in political discourse is the kind of character assassination that MoveOn.org participated in in calling him ‘General Betray Us,’ that The New York Times gave them a discount to do, and that Hillary Clinton followed up on with these attacks on his integrity.

“I believe those organizations should all apologize and I believe The New York Times should give us the same discounted rate and the same ability to place it on the day that we want to place it, which is tomorrow morning, the day after the President speaks, that they gave to the very excessive left-wing side of this dispute. It’s time for Americans to really insist that American politicians move beyond character assassination, and this is exactly what they attempted to do with General Petraeus. Well, it’s one thing when politicians do it to each other. It’s another thing when it’s done to an American General who has been putting his life at risk to protect us, who is back there right now or on his way back there right now, putting his life at risk to protect us and about whom there’s never been a question about the man’s integrity. Maybe you can disagree with his tactics. I don’t. I agree with him. You have no right to disagree with his integrity and put his integrity into question. That is what’s wrong with American politics today. Hillary Clinton, The New York Times, MoveOn.org should apologize for what they did. Their excessive political view led them to character assassination. They should apologize for it. They should stop it and what we should move on with from now on is a civil discourse without name calling.”

Giuliani followed up on that attack by putting a full page ad in the New York Times on Friday (as I mentioned above, at that same rate he called for), and launched the following internet ad:

Giuliani also attacked Clinton campaign for comparisons of Clinton with Margaret Thatcher, saying, “I don’t think Margaret Thatcher would impugn the integrity of a commanding general in a time of war, as Hillary Clinton did, or require an army to give a schedule of their retreat to the enemy, as the Democrats are suggesting.”

The Clinton campaign responded to the ad fairly quickly with the following brief press release:

“It’s hardly surprising that Mayor Giuliani is running the first negative ad of the ‘08 campaign, given his inability to justify his unqualified support for President Bush’s failed Iraq strategy.”

In the middle of this fracas, Giuiliani touted a congratulatory letter from Bill Clinton:

Giuliani told a law-enforcement group in Louisiana he has a letter from then-President Bill Clinton praising him for helping pass a federal anti-crime bill when he was mayor.

“I have a letter - I keep it at home,” Giuliani told members of the Louisiana Sheriff’s Association in Baton Rouge.

“It’s a letter from President Clinton, congratulating me for all of my efforts and saying something like the crime bill couldn’t have been passed if it weren’t for me.”

“I keep this letter. I’m going to use it at the right moment. You can imagine when,” he said to thunderous applause, hinting that the letter would be trotted out if he faces Hillary Clinton in the general election.

As for what Democratic candidates have said on the Moveon.org ad, here is what Clinton said regarding both her comments to Gen. Petraeus and the Moveon.org forum in the Democratic mashup:

Rose: You said yesterday it required a willing suspension of disbelief. Meaning that you questioned either his veracity or his judgment in what he said.

Clinton: No, what I said was meant to convey my very strong feeling that no matter how flat the pancake, there’s always two sides. The problem is that what the administration’s report intended to do was was to take anecdotal evidence and actually gild the lily once again, making it seem as though there had been much more progress than I think you can actually justify. For example, they take tremendous credit for what’s happened in al Anbar province in terms of the coalition with the Sunni tribal sheikhs. That was going on before the surge. In fact, when Gen. Petraeus testified during his confirmation hearings last January, he alluded to the progress that was going on, the sheikhs were already turning in the face of the barbarity and violence of al-Qaida in Iraq. And there is no getting away from the fundamental problem, which is there is no military solution. And everyone has to admit that the Iraqi government has failed politically, and the Bush administration has failed to pressure the Iraqi government and has totally missed the boat when it comes to the diplomatic offensive that should have been undertaken.

…..

Rose: Did you think the Moveon.org advertisement about Gen. Petraeus was either appropriate or necessary?

Clinton: You know, I think that we should focus on what the problem is here. The problem is a president who has a policy that flies in the face of reality. I don’t fault people who are serving their country and fulfilling the mission that they have been given. Both the general and ambassador were there implementing the president’s policy, and I think we should remain focused on this president, and frankly, I’m getting enough Republican support to force the president to change course.

This seems to be an issue that the Clinton is trying to wait out, not wanting to undermine support of those who support the Moveon.org ad, but wanting to stay as far away as possible from explicitly supporting it. The benefit of waiting it out is that Democrats instinctively will rally to her support, much like they did to Kerry when Bush attacked him during the last primary; they likely will keep responding by bringing up Giuliani’s time on the Iraq Study Group and more should Giuliani keep pressing this issue. I’m not waiting for Clinton to, to sue the language of Giuliani, play much defense in this, since discussing the Moveon.org ad is pretty much a losing proposition for Clinton no matter what she says (which is the same idea that Kerry likely had on the Swift boat attacks); unlike Kerry, though, Clinton will assuredly attack Giuliani back should these ads keep up.

Meanwhile, the primary issues on both sides are still being overlooked, as secondary candidates keep jostling to get media attention. They’re the big losers in this situation.

[Image credits: Foxnews.com and politicsnj.com]

After the jump, as promised, Republican reactions to the Moveon.org ad.
Read more

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Weekend Calendar Preview (September 14-16, 2007)

It’s the weekend of Democratic Senator Tom Harkin’s steak fry in Iowa, and most of the Democratic candidates will be there. Republicans are also campaigning hard this weekend.

Barack Obama…

• Obama willl attend the steak fry on Sunday.

Bill Richardson…

• Richardson campaigns in Iowa all weekend before attending the steak fry on Sunday.

Chris Dodd…

• Dodd has campaign events scheduled on Saturday in Iowa before attending the steak fry on Sunday.

Dennis Kucinich…

• Kucinich wraps up a four day ‘campaign swing’ to Hawaii.

Hillary Clinton…

• Clinton has a campaign event and fundraiser scheduled with Magic Johnson tomorrow; she is keynoting a NAACP event on Saturday, before also attending the steak fry on Sunday.

Joe Biden…

• Biden campaigns in Iowa this weekend before also attending the steak fry.

John Edwards…

• Edwards is scheduled for the steak fry on Sunday, while Elizabeth Edwards campaigns in Iowa the rest of the weekend.

John McCain…

• McCain wraps up a campaign swing in New Hampshire today before heading to South Carolina on Saturday and Sunday.

Mike Huckabee…

• Huckabee campaigns in Iowa today and fundraises in Florida on Saturday.

Mitt Romney…

• Romney fundraises in Massachusetts today.

Ron Paul…

• Paul campaigns and fundraises in Seattle today, and in Salt Lake City on Saturday.

Rudy Giuliani…

• Giuliani has campaign events scheduled for today in Lousiana and Texas, and attends the Nascar race in New Hampshire on Sunday.

Sam Brownback…

• Brownback campaigns in Iowa tomorrow.

Tom Tancredo…

• Tancredo campaigns in Iowa all weekend.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Brownback Touts Foreign Policy Experience

After finishing behind Romney and Huckabee in the Iowa Straw Poll, Sam Brownback is trying to gain ground by focusing on his foreign policy experience:

Republican presidential candidate Sam Brownback on Tuesday criticized President Bush and two GOP rivals, saying the presidency isn’t a foreign policy classroom.

Brownback’s criticism that governors often do not have the foreign policy experience necessary to be president was aimed primarily at rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, both former governors. But in the process, he also took a jab at the man they all seek to replace, former Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

“We’ve got to walk more humbly and a lot more wisely than the current president,” said Brownback, a Kansas senator and former member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“I really believe this next president needs to go in with knowledge on foreign policy and not learn it on the job,” said Brownback, who has been a vocal activist against the genocide in Darfur.

“We have a tendency to elect governors as president because people like executive experience. I don’t have any problem with that. The problem is most governors don’t have foreign policy experience.”

As for his foreign policy experience, Brownback was, when the Republicans had a majority in the Senate, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and was for a time the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs, which included Iraq. So as you can imagine, he had a lot of comments over the yeas on Iraq. Here’s a few:
Read more

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Iowa Straw Poll Winners and Losers

Iowa straw poll winners and losers. Anyone can blog first, but taking a step back, who really won?

Winners:
Mitt Romney: The obvious to start with, seeing as though he actually won. Romney may not have exceeded expectations, but he got the win he needed to have. Seeing as though a loss would have crippled his campaign, even a low-turnout type of win is a plus. There are obviously caveats with his win, though. First, he didn’t inspire any sort of large turnout on his behalf, which probably indicates how tepid his Iowa support is. The second caveat is that his follow up appearance on Fox News Sunday was less than impressive, and may have raised more questions than it answered.

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee finally got the good political result that he needed. This will definitely help his fundraising abilities, which were sorely lacking so far this year. There are two parts to the ‘insurgent campaign’ playbook (can someone please come up with a better name than that?). Part one is doing a lot with little money. Part two is raising more money to really enter the top tier. Howard Dean got noticed with his DNC speech and used that to fundraise really well to enter the top tier. Huckabee’s gotten the hard part done now with finishing ahead of Brownback, but how he capitalizes on it will be the crucial part. The worst case scenario for him, though, is that he is a viable VP candidate that people -especially the GOP base- will respond positively toward. The best case scenario obviously is that he follows the second place finish up with a strong fundraising quarter and emerges as the conservative alternative that many Republicans seem to be looking for.

Republican 504(c)s: This blog entry by Marc Ambinder really paints a clear picture of how Fairtax.org got Huckabee his second place finish. The group even claimed as much responsibility as they legally could for Huckabee doing so well. In the last election 537s were heavily Democratic. What seems really be happening now is that a Republican 504 has made an impact at a grassroots level, and organized around an issue. I have to wonder if other issue oriented groups will take note of the success of Fairtax.org to organize for the caucuses or in future years. If it’s on abortion it could hurt Giuliani or Romney, if it’s on immigration it could hurt Brownback or McCain, etc. The point is that issues that effectively organize independant of the candidates can significantly change results in states like Iowa, and it will be interesting to see how much of that happens in the coming months.

Non-Participatory Campaigns: The attendance of the Straw Poll has to be looked at as indicative of the lack of passion among Iowa voters. Frankly, the excuse making the rounds of the Iowa heat isn’t that convincing. The fact that attendance was so amount higher in 1999 (38k in 99, only 30k this year) when the candidates participating were really only George Bush and others who wouldn’t even consider running this cycle speaks volumes. And that’s not even considering that this elections is really accelerating far faster than the 1999 election, which was really not nearly as far advanced as the 1999 one, and yet still far more people turned out then. If Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain can tap into the disaffect felt towards the candidates, they could really break out front in a hurry. I’m not really anticipating that happening, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

As stated in an article in the Chicago Tribune:

Only 2.5 percent of those considered to be active Republicans took part in the balloting. There also were nearly 10,000 fewer ballots cast Saturday than in the last straw poll in 1999, which was won by then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

Romney and Huckabee contended that the heat and oppressive humidity Saturday made it difficult to turn out supporters. Romney also said that because his victory had been expected, some backers didn’t want to travel to Ames.

But the decline in participation tracks with a recent survey that found that fewer than 20 percent of Iowa Republicans were “very satisfied” with their choice of contenders.

Losers:

Republican Party: See above. This turnout isn’t a good thing. It’s important to remember how super charged the 2004 election was. Even with a candidate most Democrats were not excited about, the election had a record high turnout to vote against Bush, and it took an even greater turnout to get Bush re-elected. It looks like it’s going to be similar for Republicans this time at this point as it was for Democrats, as the turnout essentially confirms the general malaise towards the candidates that had previously been more or less assumed through polls. It will be interesting to see if the malaise goes away by the time the primaries gear up, and if Republicans can overcome their malaise to get a high turnout in the general election the same way Democrats did in 2004. I imagine that voting against Clinton will help a lot in that regard, should she in fact get nominated.

Non-participatory campaigns: While they win in some ways, they also lose in some other ways. The most dedicated of Iowa Republicans are the ones who showed up, and they are also the ones who were spurned by the campaigns who elected to not participate, and there’s no guarantee those voters will be receptive to the Thompson, Giuliani, or even McCain campaigns come December and January.

Sam Brownback: Brownback was in a race to beat Huckabee, and lost that race, no matter how close it was. It’s going to be a tough sell for him to get any bounce from the result. Considering his financial advantage and his advantage in visiting Iowa as much as he has, 32 times since 2004 compared to 19 times for Huckabee according to Iowapolitics.com. He’s not out of the race, but he’ll need to have something happen between now and January in order to be a factor in the caucuses.

Tommy Thompson: Finished sixth, dropped out. Given how much he campaigned in Iowa, it’s no surprise he dropped out when he finished so low.

Duncan Hunter: He’s essentially the only remaining candidate who was there who will be inable to spin his results in a positive manner. It’s not a failure of ideas for Hunter, but essentially a complete political failure. His only campaigning has been in the debates, and it’s hard to really say he’s taking this run seriously. Hunter’s only chance at this point is to pick an early state and go all out for the win, like McCain did in New Hampshire in 2000 or Kerry did in Iowa in 2004. Even then, it might be far too late in this race for that strategy to work. I have to wonder what he would have done had he run a campaign like Tommy Thompson did, instead of barely making any appearances in the state at all.

Tom Tancredo: Finishing behind Brownback was a blow, and really hurts his ability to portray himself as a viable conservative alternative. There were some who thought he could emerge like Huckabee has, but finishing behind two candidates fighting to be the social conservative alternative and also finishing behind Mitt Romney puts him pretty far back with still only one issue to make traction on.

Iowa Straw Poll: Very little good things happen when events are ignored and then ill-attended. It’s foolish to make predictions of what is going to happen 4 or 8 years down the line, but there are signals that perhaps the straw poll will become less important instead of more important. Self-selecting straw polls built on campaign money might not be the best way for candidates to spend their money and time in an era of more and more public polling being available. The poll clearly had some uses … but was it necessary with this campaign schedule? I don’t claim to know the answer, but I do know that the answer isn’t obvious.

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Weekend Calendar Preview (August 10-12, 2007)

It’s Straw Poll day tomorrow in Ames, Iowa, and most of the Republicans will be there after attending the Iowa State Fair today in Des Moines. Newt Gingrich will also be in attendance this weekend.

Barack Obama

• Obama is in Nevada today for two events, before  a parade appearance tomorrow in Chicago. Michelle Obama  has a campaign event scheduled on Sunday in Chicago as well.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson fundraises today in Iowa before taking the weekend off.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd and his wife are campaigning today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Dennis Kucinich

• Kucinich spends the weekend campaigning and fundraising in California.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton is in San Francisco this afternoon, and she fundraises tomorrow in Texas and Oklahoma, before returning to the Bay Area Sunday for a appearance in San Jose.

John Edwards

• Edwards has a town hall event in Nevada today, and has a union appearance scheduled in California tomorrow

Duncan Hunter

• Hunter is participating in the straw poll tomorrow.

John McCain

• McCain holds a town hall meetings today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Mitt Romney

• Romney also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Ron Paul

• Paul has a rally scheduled for tonight in Ames, and attends th straw poll tomorrow.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani campaigns and fundrases today in Colorado Springs.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback campaigns in Iowa today and attends the straw poll tomorrow..

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Tommy Thompson

• Thompson unsurprisingly also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Brownback Welcomes Roe but Shuns Romney: Hypocritical or Reasonable?

The Brownback campaign has been butting heads with the Romney campaign for months. It came to a head in the recent debate:

This has been going on for quite a while. Back in January, David Brody quoted Brownback as saying:

“I think you have to look at where he stood on the issues and what he said publicly,” Brownback said. “At times he’s said different things on these issues. I think that’s all going to come out during a long campaign.”

Brownback wouldn’t flatly say if Romney is a reliable conservative. He said, “We’ll see and that will be for him to discuss. I do think when we get out on the campaign trail and when the campaign really gets fully engaged, there’s going to be a lot of discussion about where do people actually stand on the issues and where have they been and where are they now and how reliable are they to stay that way.”

At the same time, Brownback has constantly touted the endorsement of Norma McCorvey, better known as the ‘Roe’ in Roe v. Wade who sued for abortion rights. In a press release today, Brownback even said he was ‘honored’ by her presence and support:

U.S. Senator Sam Brownback, Republican candidate for president, announced today that Norma McCorvey, the “Jane Roe” of Roe v. Wade, will join him Saturday at the Ames straw poll.

“Sam Brownback is the right person, in the right place at the right time for our nation as we seek to embrace a culture of life,” said McCorvey. “I call on pro-life Iowans to vote for Senator Brownback in Ames this Saturday. Our nation needs a president with strength, courage and moral fortitude–one who will lead our society on a path that respects human life and dignity.”

In 1970, Norma McCorvey, then an impoverished pregnant woman, was convinced by a team of ambitious lawyers to be their plaintiff in a case that would challenge the Texas state law prohibiting abortion. The case, Roe v. Wade, was eventually appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

In 1995, McCorvey abandoned her pro-choice activism and became a vocal pro-life Christian. In 1997, she founded Roe No More, a pro-life ministry. In 2005, McCorvey formally petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 decision that bears her name.

“I am honored that such a staunch defender of the dignity of the unborn will join me at Ames this Saturday,” said Brownback.

Now, I think it’s a valid question why Brownback expends so much issue questioning the record of Romney, while both being endorsed by and touting the endorsement of someone with a mixed record on the subject. The obvious answer seems to be that Romney is competing for an office and is being accused of flip-flopping for political gain, but at the same time Brownback never once seems to question or even look into McCorvey’s motives. Is anyone not running for political office beyond questioning? Perhaps so. And there does seem to be a difference in converting in 95 and converting in 05. But you would think Brownback would address the gray area more than he has.

This is compounded by Brownback saying he would accept a pro-choice Republican candidate if one was nominated. He seems to attack and withdraw on the abortion based on political circumstances, not on the issue itself. I’m not one to judge candidates’ sincerity (it’s not my specialty whatsoever), but I’m not surprised that the honest, straightforward, and relatable stance of Mike Huckabee is having more traction in Iowa so far in most polls than the hyper-aggressive and confrontational approach of Sam Brownback, even though Brownback should have had an advantage being from a neighboring state and campaigning more in Iowa thus far. But the question this weekend is not the raw poll numbers but rather the dedication of the supporters in going to Ames and voting. And there’s a chance that Brownback might be successful when dedication and passion are important than appealing to a broader spectrum of supporters.

What does this all mean? I’m not sure yet. We’ll find out on Saturday.

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Blog Buzz Watch (July 30 - August 5, 2007)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 5:30 PM 07/30/07 through 5:30PM 08/05/07…

Democrats

 

Republicans

 

 

Head To Head

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Live Blog Of ABC News Republican Debate (August 5, 2007)

This morning, Republican presidential candidates participated in a debate in Iowa hosted by ABC News and moderated by George Stephanopolous. The participating candidates were (from left to right in picture):

• Tom Tancredo
• Tommy Thompson
• Sam Brownback
• John McCain
• Rudy Giuliani
• Mitt Romney
• Mike Huckabee
• Ron Paul
• Duncan Hunter

TRANSCRIPT
9:01: We start right off with the Brownback-Romney debate, and a look at Brownback’s calls about Romney. Despite accusations (”The single word I’d use would be “desperate” or perhaps “negative.””-Mitt Romney) it never really goes beyond the talking points, and the other attacks by Brownback are never really brought up. If anything, Brownback looked a little desparate.

9:06: A look at old comments by Romney on Giuliani. Romney backs away from the comments, but does probably take a hit in the process after going so venomously after Brownback.

9:07: Giuliani talks about his positions on gay marriage (he supports ‘contractual relationships’ now) and he talks about lowering the number of abortions and raising the number of adoptions. He adds that the decision on abortion should be up to the mother and her doctor.

9:08: A weird question about Republicans being against the Catholic Church to Thompson. Thompson sidesteps the Catholic angle and focuses on Republicans having to be pro-life.

9:10: McCain is brought into the abortion debate and links it immediately with national security, which just feels odd. Then says its about respect for life as a national value, which makes a bit more sense. And then he talks a bout the struggle against Islamic extremism, and finishes with an appeal to his record. A pretty wandering answer on abortion, where most answers are simple, or at least straight forward. That felt like a wandering Reagan answer in 87 or 88, not Reagan at the top of his game.

9:13: Youtubed-like question on Iraq. Paul says “just come home.”

9:15: Hunter talks about being “here” when the Berlin Wall went down and when there were operations in Central America. I’m not sure what he’s referring to in terms of where “here” is. He finishes with jabbing Democrats and Paul for a lack of understanding what is going on in Iraq and Anbar and not thanking the Marines.

9:17: Huckabee talks of a middle ground between Hunter and Paul, staying but not forever (is he implying Hunter wants to stay in Iraq forever?). He talks about pressuring the Saudis and ending the dependence on foreign oil “now.”

9:18: Brownback jumps in and talks about the three state solution, even citing Thomas Friedman of all people.

9:19: McCain talks ab