Iowa Straw Poll Winners and Losers

Iowa straw poll winners and losers. Anyone can blog first, but taking a step back, who really won?

Winners:
Mitt Romney: The obvious to start with, seeing as though he actually won. Romney may not have exceeded expectations, but he got the win he needed to have. Seeing as though a loss would have crippled his campaign, even a low-turnout type of win is a plus. There are obviously caveats with his win, though. First, he didn’t inspire any sort of large turnout on his behalf, which probably indicates how tepid his Iowa support is. The second caveat is that his follow up appearance on Fox News Sunday was less than impressive, and may have raised more questions than it answered.

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee finally got the good political result that he needed. This will definitely help his fundraising abilities, which were sorely lacking so far this year. There are two parts to the ‘insurgent campaign’ playbook (can someone please come up with a better name than that?). Part one is doing a lot with little money. Part two is raising more money to really enter the top tier. Howard Dean got noticed with his DNC speech and used that to fundraise really well to enter the top tier. Huckabee’s gotten the hard part done now with finishing ahead of Brownback, but how he capitalizes on it will be the crucial part. The worst case scenario for him, though, is that he is a viable VP candidate that people -especially the GOP base- will respond positively toward. The best case scenario obviously is that he follows the second place finish up with a strong fundraising quarter and emerges as the conservative alternative that many Republicans seem to be looking for.

Republican 504(c)s: This blog entry by Marc Ambinder really paints a clear picture of how Fairtax.org got Huckabee his second place finish. The group even claimed as much responsibility as they legally could for Huckabee doing so well. In the last election 537s were heavily Democratic. What seems really be happening now is that a Republican 504 has made an impact at a grassroots level, and organized around an issue. I have to wonder if other issue oriented groups will take note of the success of Fairtax.org to organize for the caucuses or in future years. If it’s on abortion it could hurt Giuliani or Romney, if it’s on immigration it could hurt Brownback or McCain, etc. The point is that issues that effectively organize independant of the candidates can significantly change results in states like Iowa, and it will be interesting to see how much of that happens in the coming months.

Non-Participatory Campaigns: The attendance of the Straw Poll has to be looked at as indicative of the lack of passion among Iowa voters. Frankly, the excuse making the rounds of the Iowa heat isn’t that convincing. The fact that attendance was so amount higher in 1999 (38k in 99, only 30k this year) when the candidates participating were really only George Bush and others who wouldn’t even consider running this cycle speaks volumes. And that’s not even considering that this elections is really accelerating far faster than the 1999 election, which was really not nearly as far advanced as the 1999 one, and yet still far more people turned out then. If Giuliani, Thompson, or McCain can tap into the disaffect felt towards the candidates, they could really break out front in a hurry. I’m not really anticipating that happening, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

As stated in an article in the Chicago Tribune:

Only 2.5 percent of those considered to be active Republicans took part in the balloting. There also were nearly 10,000 fewer ballots cast Saturday than in the last straw poll in 1999, which was won by then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

Romney and Huckabee contended that the heat and oppressive humidity Saturday made it difficult to turn out supporters. Romney also said that because his victory had been expected, some backers didn’t want to travel to Ames.

But the decline in participation tracks with a recent survey that found that fewer than 20 percent of Iowa Republicans were “very satisfied” with their choice of contenders.

Losers:

Republican Party: See above. This turnout isn’t a good thing. It’s important to remember how super charged the 2004 election was. Even with a candidate most Democrats were not excited about, the election had a record high turnout to vote against Bush, and it took an even greater turnout to get Bush re-elected. It looks like it’s going to be similar for Republicans this time at this point as it was for Democrats, as the turnout essentially confirms the general malaise towards the candidates that had previously been more or less assumed through polls. It will be interesting to see if the malaise goes away by the time the primaries gear up, and if Republicans can overcome their malaise to get a high turnout in the general election the same way Democrats did in 2004. I imagine that voting against Clinton will help a lot in that regard, should she in fact get nominated.

Non-participatory campaigns: While they win in some ways, they also lose in some other ways. The most dedicated of Iowa Republicans are the ones who showed up, and they are also the ones who were spurned by the campaigns who elected to not participate, and there’s no guarantee those voters will be receptive to the Thompson, Giuliani, or even McCain campaigns come December and January.

Sam Brownback: Brownback was in a race to beat Huckabee, and lost that race, no matter how close it was. It’s going to be a tough sell for him to get any bounce from the result. Considering his financial advantage and his advantage in visiting Iowa as much as he has, 32 times since 2004 compared to 19 times for Huckabee according to Iowapolitics.com. He’s not out of the race, but he’ll need to have something happen between now and January in order to be a factor in the caucuses.

Tommy Thompson: Finished sixth, dropped out. Given how much he campaigned in Iowa, it’s no surprise he dropped out when he finished so low.

Duncan Hunter: He’s essentially the only remaining candidate who was there who will be inable to spin his results in a positive manner. It’s not a failure of ideas for Hunter, but essentially a complete political failure. His only campaigning has been in the debates, and it’s hard to really say he’s taking this run seriously. Hunter’s only chance at this point is to pick an early state and go all out for the win, like McCain did in New Hampshire in 2000 or Kerry did in Iowa in 2004. Even then, it might be far too late in this race for that strategy to work. I have to wonder what he would have done had he run a campaign like Tommy Thompson did, instead of barely making any appearances in the state at all.

Tom Tancredo: Finishing behind Brownback was a blow, and really hurts his ability to portray himself as a viable conservative alternative. There were some who thought he could emerge like Huckabee has, but finishing behind two candidates fighting to be the social conservative alternative and also finishing behind Mitt Romney puts him pretty far back with still only one issue to make traction on.

Iowa Straw Poll: Very little good things happen when events are ignored and then ill-attended. It’s foolish to make predictions of what is going to happen 4 or 8 years down the line, but there are signals that perhaps the straw poll will become less important instead of more important. Self-selecting straw polls built on campaign money might not be the best way for candidates to spend their money and time in an era of more and more public polling being available. The poll clearly had some uses … but was it necessary with this campaign schedule? I don’t claim to know the answer, but I do know that the answer isn’t obvious.

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Tommy Thompson’s Ships Have Sailed

Our Iowa Straw Poll Wrap Up Will Be Posted Shortly

After a disappointing finish in the Iowa Straw Poll, Tommy Thompson has left the race for the Republican nomination, issuing the following press release:

“I want to thank the people of Iowa who were welcoming and supportive as well as my volunteers and contributors from around the country,” said Thompson. “I have no regrets about running. I felt my record as Governor of Wisconsin and Secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as President, but I respect the decision of the voters. I am leaving the campaign trail today, but I will not leave the challenges of improving health care and welfare in America.”

Thompson, who was elected to serve four terms as Wisconsin Governor and four years as Secretary of Health and Human Services, began exploring a presidential bid last December. Weeks ago, he told supporters and the news media that if he did not do well in the Iowa Straw Poll, he would step aside and leave others to work for the Republican nomination.

“No candidate is more experienced than Governor Thompson and no candidate worked harder; but sometimes the dynamics just aren’t there to bring about a victory,” said Steve Grubbs, Senior Advisor to Thompson’s campaign. “The Governor’s staff was deeply committed to him and to his candidacy. If we could have willed a victory, we would have.”

Thompson will return to the private sector as well as his non-profit work after a brief time off.

“I have very much enjoyed my years in public service and I am comforted by the fact that I think I made a difference for people during that time. I hope to continue working to serve others over the next few years,” said Thompson.

Thompson’s run for the presidency has been marked by his amazing, near Biden-like efficiency in gaffes and also by making the use of health care ships his signature issue in foreign policy. By the end, he was forced to distinguish himself from an undeclared candidate sharing his last name. He tried running as the resume candidate and also as the electable candidate, but Iowa Republicans just didn’t sell what this Thompson was buying.

Related at 2008 Central:

• Tommy Thompson Argues That He’s The Most Electable Republican Candidate
• Tommy Thompson Gets Some Hometown Explaining Gaffes
• Tommy Thompson Apologizes for Remarks About Jews

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Weekend Calendar Preview (August 10-12, 2007)

It’s Straw Poll day tomorrow in Ames, Iowa, and most of the Republicans will be there after attending the Iowa State Fair today in Des Moines. Newt Gingrich will also be in attendance this weekend.

Barack Obama

• Obama is in Nevada today for two events, before  a parade appearance tomorrow in Chicago. Michelle Obama  has a campaign event scheduled on Sunday in Chicago as well.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson fundraises today in Iowa before taking the weekend off.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd and his wife are campaigning today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Dennis Kucinich

• Kucinich spends the weekend campaigning and fundraising in California.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton is in San Francisco this afternoon, and she fundraises tomorrow in Texas and Oklahoma, before returning to the Bay Area Sunday for a appearance in San Jose.

John Edwards

• Edwards has a town hall event in Nevada today, and has a union appearance scheduled in California tomorrow

Duncan Hunter

• Hunter is participating in the straw poll tomorrow.

John McCain

• McCain holds a town hall meetings today and tomorrow in New Hampshire.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Mitt Romney

• Romney also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Ron Paul

• Paul has a rally scheduled for tonight in Ames, and attends th straw poll tomorrow.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani campaigns and fundrases today in Colorado Springs.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback campaigns in Iowa today and attends the straw poll tomorrow..

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Tommy Thompson

• Thompson unsurprisingly also attends the Iowa State Fair today and the straw poll tomorrow.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Blog Buzz Watch (July 30 - August 5, 2007)

Below are graphs that display the number of mentions in the blogosphere for Democratic and Republican candidates between 5:30 PM 07/30/07 through 5:30PM 08/05/07…

Democrats

 

Republicans

 

 

Head To Head

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Live Blog Of ABC News Republican Debate (August 5, 2007)

This morning, Republican presidential candidates participated in a debate in Iowa hosted by ABC News and moderated by George Stephanopolous. The participating candidates were (from left to right in picture):

• Tom Tancredo
• Tommy Thompson
• Sam Brownback
• John McCain
• Rudy Giuliani
• Mitt Romney
• Mike Huckabee
• Ron Paul
• Duncan Hunter

TRANSCRIPT
9:01: We start right off with the Brownback-Romney debate, and a look at Brownback’s calls about Romney. Despite accusations (”The single word I’d use would be “desperate” or perhaps “negative.””-Mitt Romney) it never really goes beyond the talking points, and the other attacks by Brownback are never really brought up. If anything, Brownback looked a little desparate.

9:06: A look at old comments by Romney on Giuliani. Romney backs away from the comments, but does probably take a hit in the process after going so venomously after Brownback.

9:07: Giuliani talks about his positions on gay marriage (he supports ‘contractual relationships’ now) and he talks about lowering the number of abortions and raising the number of adoptions. He adds that the decision on abortion should be up to the mother and her doctor.

9:08: A weird question about Republicans being against the Catholic Church to Thompson. Thompson sidesteps the Catholic angle and focuses on Republicans having to be pro-life.

9:10: McCain is brought into the abortion debate and links it immediately with national security, which just feels odd. Then says its about respect for life as a national value, which makes a bit more sense. And then he talks a bout the struggle against Islamic extremism, and finishes with an appeal to his record. A pretty wandering answer on abortion, where most answers are simple, or at least straight forward. That felt like a wandering Reagan answer in 87 or 88, not Reagan at the top of his game.

9:13: Youtubed-like question on Iraq. Paul says “just come home.”

9:15: Hunter talks about being “here” when the Berlin Wall went down and when there were operations in Central America. I’m not sure what he’s referring to in terms of where “here” is. He finishes with jabbing Democrats and Paul for a lack of understanding what is going on in Iraq and Anbar and not thanking the Marines.

9:17: Huckabee talks of a middle ground between Hunter and Paul, staying but not forever (is he implying Hunter wants to stay in Iraq forever?). He talks about pressuring the Saudis and ending the dependence on foreign oil “now.”

9:18: Brownback jumps in and talks about the three state solution, even citing Thomas Friedman of all people.

9:19: McCain talks about how he will support the surge regardless of what benchmarks are met because victory is crucial.

9:20: Giuliani criticizes Democrats for not saying “Islamic terrorism.” He says America should define the terms of victory, but stops short of McCain-type rhetoric.

9:21: Mitt Romney says he, McCain, and Giuliani agree on Iraq, and then procedes to attack Barack Obama, even calling him Dr. Strangelove (which is odd, given that Obama said he would not use nuclear weapons; there seems plenty of insults for Obama, just that one really doesn’t seem to fit for me). The attack was not really specific, but the Republican audience laughed nonetheless. Romnye concludes by calling for everyone to unite behind the action in Iraq.

9:22: Tom Tancredo talks about the rules of engagement needing to be changed in Iraq. He does not really get into specifically what the problem is however.

9:23: Thompson answered a question about Iraq by focusing on redistributing oil revenues.

9:24: Paul talked about Iraq and seemed to steal Bill Maher’s talking points when he goes after the neoconservatives.

9:25: McCain gave his normal talking points about Iraq and Petraeus.

9:26: Huckabee said prevention had to be a priority for health care.

9:27: Tommy Thompson touted his resume, and then agreed with Huckabee.

9:28: Tancredo said health care was not the problem of national government. He did say health savings accounts would be good.

9:29: Romney talked about uninsured raising costs for everyone else, then said his health care plan in Massachusetts, while imperfect, could help.

9:30: Giuliani touted his plan, which so far is just health savings accounts.

9:31: Everyone disagrees with Sen. Grassley about expanding health care for children.

9:32: Hunter talked about buying health care across state lines.

9:33: Brownback talks about needing more choice in health care.

9:35: Obama comments on Pakistan are brought up. Giuliani talks about his comments saying he would take the option, which he backs away from. Romney says Obama is confused about who America’s friends and enemies are. Romney says it is not presidential to say these things out loud, even if they are good ideas. Talks about needing friends in the moderate Muslim world.

9:38: Hunter talks about Pakistani troops amassing and needing the Pakistani army in the mountains.

9:39: A look at Bush’s second inaugural, with promoting democracy.

9:40: Huckabee says “sometimes when you get what you want, you don’t want what you get” it is not the job of America to export government, but to secure the borders and create an enviable system. Talks about spending money in America, not overseas.

9:41: Paul says force should not spread our values, criticizes nation building in Afghanistan and Iraq.

9:42: Giuliani says democracy is not immediately going to elections, but also requires the rule of law. Giuliani says maybe going to elections too quickly was a mistake. Compares to NYC with people being afraid to go out at night, before elections mean something.

9:44: McCain agrees, but adds that rule of law is beginning to take hold in Iraq. Says it is ‘nieve to say we would never use nuclear weapons.’ Also criticizes Obama on Pakistan, and cites JFK saying America would ‘bear any burden.’

9:45: Romney also agrees that democracy is more than votes. Talks at length about his philosophy of foreign policy, saying America must help the world of Islam towards modernity.

9:47: Tancredo defends his threatening to bomb Mecca and Medina. Tancredo said he wants to deter attacks by Al Qaeda, and says anyone that takes these options off the table is not fit to be president.

9:48: Tommy Thompson says bombing holy sites would only unify Muslims against America. He then says America needs to strengthen its military to fight terrorism.

9:49: Brownback says words of a president matter. Says we are a nation at war with militant Islamists, and should push democracy carefully.

9:50: Huckabee is asked if we should raise the gas tax to fix bridges and roads. Talks about the infrastructural problems with airlines as well, and sewers.

9:51: Giuliani says you should lower taxes to raise more money. The moderator (not GS) goes after him for what he would cut. Says he raised money to fix bridges by lowering taxes. Then goes after Edwards for the capital gains tax increase.

9:53: Romney says its important to keep the economy rolling to riase money, and that requires low taxes. Says fixing should be a priority with transportation money.

9:54: McCain talks about the pork in the transportation bill.

Commercial Break

10:00: A Youtube-like question about what the office of VP should do. McCain says the job is to break ties and inquire daily about the health of the president. McCain said he would give an area of expertise to the VP, but be careful to make sure there was only one president.

10:01: Thompson says Cheney is sometimes criticized unfairly. Then talks about defending Republicans about not accepting Grassley’s health care plan, and that its on technical grounds.

10:02: Giuliani says its important to have someone able to step in on a moments notice, but that you can’t have someone out in the blue like Truman was about telecommunications.

10:03: Romney says it would depend on whom his VP was, but that you need someone with experience.

10:04: Brownback says Bush overrelied on Cheney.

10:05: Says Cheney represents the rejection of conservative principles.

10:06: Hunter says it depends on the credentials of the President, citing his service in Vietnam and his son’s service as well and that he unlike others would not share duties of commander in chief. Seems a pointless shot at others and touting of his son.

10:07: Question about the fair tax. Huckabee says he supports the fair tax and that it would bring money back from overseas.

10:08: Romney talks about problems in the fair tax. Huckabee interrupts him at one point, but Romney dismisses him.

10:09: Giuliani criticizes the estate tax/death tax. Says the transition to the fair tax or flat tax would be too complex and that the IRS would oversea any tax anyways.

10:10: McCain says he would have a commission led by Alan Greenspan to decide what taxes are good or not.

10:11: Tancredo suggests reading for Giuliani, who tries to interrupt him. Tancredo says the power of personal taxation is too much power.

10:12: Brownback touts his optional flat tax plan.

10:13: Defining mistake of their lives. Hunter says he contemplated running as a Democrat in his first election. Paul says he does not speak forcefully enough about liberty. Huckabee talks about not taking care of his health. Romney says he did not defend life in his gubernatorial election. Giuliani humorously jokes about making too many mistakes. McCain gets serious and talks about volunteering for combat action that led to him getting imprisioned, and also talks about meeting with regulators. Brownback says he does not tell his family he loves them enough. Thompson says he did not make enough promises to end breast cancer and vowed to do so as president. Tancredo says it was waiting to convert to Christianity.

10:17: Fundamental promise as president. Tancredo says he would bring back hope and speaking about the values of political correctness. Thompson said he would open up the east wing to bring in the best minds regardless of party. Brownback says he would rebuild the family and stand for life and make sure Roe v. Wade was overturned. McCain says he is more fully prepared to fight against radical Islam than anyone else on either side. Giuliani said he would restore hope and build on optimism. Criticizes Democratic lack of executive experience. Romney says that he would strengthen the military, the economy, and the family. Huckabee talks about the real boss is the American people. Paul said he would restore openness in government and focus on transparency. Hunter talks about ‘economic patriotism’ and restoring manufacturing capability. Again mentions his kid fighting in Iraq, and uses that to cite families fighting in Iraq. I’m really not in favor of mentioning his kid; the McCain approach of not mentioning kids fighting in iraq seems much more dignified.

Anyway, that’s it. I’m going to try to recover the first part ASAP. Pretty forgettable on the whole. Just a lot of talking points.

[Photo Credit: AP/Charlie Neibergall]

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Weekend Calendar Preview (August 3-5, 2007)

Two big events this weekend. Democratic candidates converge in Chicago for the YearlyKos Convention tomorrow, while Republicans have a debate Sunday morning in Des Moines.

Barack Obama

• Obama addresses YearlyKos tomorrow, before heading to Atlanta for Women’s Awards Dinner for the SCLC. Sunday he has a fundraiser in Utah and a Town Hall Meeting in Nevada.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson campaigns all weekend in Iowa, squeezing in an appearance at YearlyKos tomorrow afternoon.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd’s wife, Jackie Clegg Dodd, will campaign tomorrow and Sunday in Nevada, while Dodd himself appears at YearlyKos tomorrow afternoon.

Dennis Kucinich

• Kucinich will also address the YearlyKos convention.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton has a slew of fundraisers lined up this weekend in the Hamptons on Long Island. Tomorrow morning she will address the National Organization of Police Organizations and the YearlyKos Convention before heading back to Long Island.

John Edwards

• Edwards also addresses the YearlyKos Convention, before campaigning in Iowa on Sunday.

Mike Gravel

• Gravel is also attending YearlyKos.

Duncan Hunter

• Hunter is participating in the debate this Sunday in Iowa.

John McCain

• McCain holds a town hall meeting Saturday in Iowa, and participates in the debate on Sunday.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee campaigns in Iowa today and debates on Sunday.

Mitt Romney

• Romney has some fundraisers scheduled for Maine today, before debating on Sunday morning and campaigning in Iowa the rest of the day.

Ron Paul

• Paul has a campaign event scheduled in Pittsburgh today, before appearing at the debate on Sunday. His son is appearing at an event tomorrow in St. Louis.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani debates on Sunday morning and campaigns in Iowa the rest of the day.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback is also participating in the debate.

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo has campaign events in Iowa tomorrow and Sunday sandwiched around the debate.

Tommy Thompson

• Thompson also campaigning in Iowa this weekend, along with debating.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Weekend Calendar Preview

Some Republicans push in Iowa this weekend, while many Democrats address the Urban League this morning.

Barack Obama

• Obama addresses the urban league today and then campaigns the rest of today and tomorrow morning in Iowa.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson campaigns in New Hampshire today and tomorrow, before fundraising in New York City tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd’s wife, Jackie Clegg Dodd, will campaign today in New Hampshire, while Dodd himself campaigns today and tomorrow in Iowa following the launch of his health care plan.

Dennis Kucinich

• Kucinich will address the Urban League today, and College Democrats tomorrow.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton will also address the Urban League forum in St. Louis today, after holding a fundraiser this morning. Later today whe will hold an economic roundtable in West Virginia followed by a fundraiser (or proceeded, I’m not clear on the time of the fundraiser), before addressing the National Beauty Culturists’ League Convention in Fairfax, Virginia tonight. She addresses College Democrats in South Carolina tomorrow morning, before holding a large campaign even in Hilton Head.

John Edwards

• Edwards also addresses the Urban League, while Elizabeth campaigns in New Hampshire today. They both continue the push in New Hampshire the rest of the weekend.

John McCain

• McCain fundraises this morning in New York City.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee addresses the American Legislation Executive Council today in Philadelphia before fundraising in Arkansas tomorrow.

Mitt Romney

• Romney again has a full schedule of events today in Iowa, before going to Florida tomorrow while his wife Ann holds a campaign breakfast in Wyoming tomorrow morning.

Ron Paul

• Paul is holding a fundraiser in San Antonio tomorrow night.

Rudy Giuliani

• Giuliani holds a campaign event in Dallas this afternoon.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback and his wife campaign in Iow atoday, and Brownback campaigns there tomorrow as well.

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo also is campaigning this weekend in Iowa, campaigninging through Monday.

Tommy Thompson

• Thompson also campaigning in Iowa this weekend, continuing his bus tour.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast (07/22/07)

This week’s podcast covers…

• Political analysis of John Edwards’ poverty tour
• Mitt Romney’s recent attacks on Fred Thompson
• Hillary Clinton’s clash with the Department of Defense
• Rudy Giuliani’s recent bad personnel decisions
• Spotlight on Chris Dodd
• Review of recent bloggers call with Mike Huckabee
• A closer look at Bill Richardson’s recent poll numbers
• On the road to the Republican Straw Poll in Iowa
• All signs indicate that Al Gore will not be running
• And more…

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week’s podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

Subscribe to 2008Central.net’s Presidential Election Podcast

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Monday Morning Briefing (July 16, 2007)

*Monday Morning Briefing is a new addition to 2008Central.net. Each Monday AM, we’ll compile the must reads to prepare you for the week ahead.

Must Reads:

• Richard Wolffe offers a behind-the-scenes look at the collapse of McCain’s campaign. [Related: McCain begins his surge in New Hampshire, McCain gets back to basics (cue Rocky-esque montage)]
• 2007 Second Quarter FEC Reports for Sam Brownback, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Mitt Romney, Tommy Thompson, John McCain, Tom Tancredo, Hillary Clinton, and Mike Gravel.
• Frank Lutz’s GOP comeback strategy (spoiler: he doesn’t think the Republicans will win in ‘08)
• Press Released: July 9-15, 2007
• Jim Gilmore Withdraws Bid For Republican Presidential Nomination
• Salon.com interview with Chris Dodd (pretend you know don’t know who is saying it, if you like it, you should give Dodd another look)

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FEC Report: Tommy Thompson

Money Raised This Quarter*: $440,279.96
Money Spent This Quarter: $504,630.60
Cash on Hand: $121,647.67
Debts: $127,434.40

Tommy Thompson is right when he says he needs to win the Iowa straw poll. His report shows that he has enough to compete in Iowa for the next couple of weeks, but it’s hard to see him having enough to compete through the caucuses without a significant boost, especially with him having more debt than cash on hand. I think a candidate with less determination would have dropped out by now, so I’ll give Thompson credit for that.

*Only using contributions from donors. It is intended to gauge support, not to audit how much money the candidates raise overall, as it does not include other sources of income (loans, rebates, committees, candidate’s own contributions, etc.)

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Weekend Calendar Preview

Candidates are back out on the trail this weekend, with a renewed focus on Nevada on the Democratic side, where Clinton really is dominating in polls so far. Most of the Democratic candidates, additionally, are addressing trial lawyers the American Association of Justice this Sunday in Chicago.

Barack Obama

• Obama has a house party in Las Vegas today, campaigns in Iowa tomorrow, and gives a speech on violence Sunday morning in Chicago.

Bill Richardson

• Richardson is in Nevada this afternoon, and Utah tonight for that state’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, before giving another speech late tonight in LA. He fundraises Saturday in New Mexico before going to Chicago on Sunday.

Chris Dodd

• Dodd campaigns in Nevada today, and address the state Democratic convention in Utah tomorrow, before heading to New Hampshire for two days of campaigning there.

Hillary Clinton

• Clinton is in New Hampshire campaigning with her husband today, whoever he is. She cancelled campaign events tomorrow in New Hampshire to attend funeral services for Lady Bird Johnson before travelling to Chicago on Sunday.

Joe Biden

• Biden is in Iowa today and tomorrow campaigning before heading to Chicago on Sunday.

John Edwards

• Edwards campaigns aggressively in Iowa the next two days (and by that, I mean holds a lot of community meetings - he and Romney’s pace while campaigning in Iowa is fascinating compared to anyone else in the field). He travels to Chicago on Sunday before starting his poverty tour in New Orleans on Sunday night.

John McCain

• McCain returns to the campaign trail, giving a speech on Iraq today in New Hampshire before holding a town hall meeting tomorrow morning, also in New Hampshire.

Mike Huckabee

• Huckabee campaigns all weekend in Iowa in anticipation of the straw poll now less than a month away.

Ron Paul

• Paul is in northern California this weekend, addressing Google employees today and holding a rally tomorrow.

Sam Brownback

• Brownback addresses young Republicans today in Virginia before campaigning in Iowa the rest of the weekend. His campaign is also sponsoring a tour by the brother of Terri Schiavo and a former Sudanese slave this weekend in Iowa.

Tom Tancredo

• Tancredo also is campaigning this weekend in Iowa.

Tommy Thompson

• Tommy Thompson finishes off the first leg of his bus tour in Iowa, where he has been all week long.

Visit our up-to-date campaign calendar section for complete schedules.

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Petition: Equitable Time For All Candidates Participating In CNN/YouTube Debates

We’ve covered all the presidential debates so far and something that has always frustrated us is the fact that there is such a huge disparity between in the amount of time that the individual candidates receive.  In some debates some candidates have received 3 times as much speaking time their opponents in the same debate!

Accordingly, we’ve decided to take action and have created a petition that we plan on delivering to CNN and YouTube prior to the first debate (which is being held on July 23, 2007).  The petition simply calls for them to reduce the time disparity by pledging to provide equitable time to all participating candidates.

Enough is enough.  Together we can maximize the utility of these debates by demanding that all candidates be allowed to express their viewpoints in a somewhat comparable way. 

Read the petition here.
Don’t want to read it and just want to sign? Go here.

Please spread the word about this effort to ehance presidential debates. 

Text of the petition: Read more

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Weekend Calendar Preview

After the hectic fundraising push at the end of June, this is definitely a far calmer weekend for campaigning.

Bill Richardson

Richardson fundraises tonight in South Carolina and campaigns in South Carolina, with events TBA. He gives a speech in New Hampshire this morning.

Chris Dodd

Dodd wraps up his week long tour of Iowa this morning.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich keynotes the annual meeting of the Association of American Editorial Cartoonists Saturday night in Washington, DC.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton addresses the United Steelworkers of America today in Cleveland.

Joe Biden

Biden is in New Hampshire today for campaigning and house parties.

John Edwards

Edwards is vacationing in New Hampshire.

Duncan Hunter

Hunter addresses the Young Republicans Meeting in Florida tomorrow.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee campaigns all weekend in in New Hampshire, featuring multiple appearances with his band Capitol Offense.

Mitt Romney

Romney addresses the Young Republicans Meeting in Florida Sunday night.

Ron Paul

Paul is in Las Vegas this weekend campaigning, while his son is in New Hampshire.

Rudy Guiliani

Giuliani campaigns the most, with appearances today in South Carolina and Georgia, and appearances tomorrow in Florida; Giuliani also is attending the Pepsi 400 in Daytona this weekend.

Tommy Thompson

Tommy Thompson kicks off his bus tour of Iowa tonight in Ames and campaigns in Iowa all weekend long.

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Defenestration of Blogs: Iowa Edition

This isn’t a defenestration, but rather a shout out to some great blogging done over the past few days. There were a lot of candidates in Iowa the past few days - and a lot of blogs in Iowa attended and wrote about them.

Here’s some of our favorites:

Ipol attended the Des Moines Clinton event on Tuesday night, and even has some video up of the event. Twelve minutes worth, in fact. Great stuff, and great commentary as well.

The Political Realm attended the Clear Lake parade in which the Clintons and Romney marched.

Century of the Common Iowan actually went to three separate events and blogged candidates speeches! Big props for that. Specifically, there are liveblogs up of Obama in Oskaloosa, Dodd in Pleasantville, and Biden in Des Moines.

A Year In Iowa has an interesting anecdote about the Clintons specifically, and voters in Iowa as well.

Cyclone Conservatives attended the Iowa Presidential Forum and Ron Paul rally, as well as Tancredo’s office opening in Ames.

Essential Estrogen saw Biden Tuesday morning in Cedar Rapids.

I realize this is skewed towards Democrats, please forward any interesting blog links of Iowans talking about seeing any Republicans if you know of any. Or leave a comment, and I will update the post. Or, really, any additional interesting first hand perspectives from the man on the street.

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Candidate Statements On Pres. Bush Commuting Sentence of Scooter Libby

Barack Obama…

“This decision to commute the sentence of a man who compromised our national security cements the legacy of an Administration characterized by a politics of cynicism and division, one that has consistently placed itself and its ideology above the law. This is exactly the kind of politics we must change so we can begin restoring the American people’s faith in a government that puts the country’s progress ahead of the bitter partisanship of recent years.”

Bill Richardson…

“It’s a sad day when the President commutes the sentence of a public official who deliberately and blatantly betrayed the public trust and obstructed an important federal investigation,” said Governor Richardson. “This administration clearly believes its officials are above the law, from ignoring FISA laws when eavesdropping on US citizens, to the abuse of classified material, to ignoring the Geneva Conventions and international law with secret prisons and torturing prisoners.

There is a reason we have laws and why we expect our Presidents to obey them. Institutions have a collective wisdom greater than that of any one individual. The arrogance of this administration’s disdain for the law and its belief it operates with impunity are breathtaking.

Will the President also commute the sentences of others who obstructed justice and lied to grand juries, or only those who act to protect President Bush and Vice President Cheney?”

Chris Dodd…

“By commuting Scooter Libby’s sentence, the President continues to abdicate responsibility for the actions of his Administration. The only ones paying the price for this Administration’s actions are the American people.”

Hillary Clinton…

“Today’s decision is yet another example that this Administration simply considers itself above the law. This case arose from the Administration’s politicization of national security intelligence and its efforts to punish those who spoke out against its policies. Four years into the Iraq war, Americans are still living with the consequences of this White House’s efforts to quell dissent. This commutation sends the clear signal that in this Administration, cronyism and ideology trump competence and justice.”

Joe Biden…

“Last week Vice President Cheney asserted that he was beyond the reach of the law. Today, President Bush demonstrated the lengths he would go to, ensuring that even aides to Dick Cheney are beyond the judgment of the law. It is time for the American people to be heard — I call for all Americans to flood the White House with phone calls tomorrow expressing their outrage over this blatant disregard for the rule of law.”

John Edwards…

“Only a president clinically incapable of understanding that mistakes have consequences could take the action he did today. President Bush has just sent exactly the wrong signal to the country and the world. In George Bush’s America, it is apparently okay to misuse intelligence for political gain, mislead prosecutors and lie to the FBI. George Bush and his cronies think they are above the law and the rest of us live with the consequences. The cause of equal justice in America took a serious blow today.”

Rudy Giuliani…

“After evaluating the facts, the President came to a reasonable decision and I believe the decision was correct.”

Fred Thompson…

“I am very happy for Scooter Libby. I know that this is a great relief to him, his wife and children. While for a long time I have urged a pardon for Scooter, I respect the President’s decision. This will allow a good American, who has done a lot for his country, to resume his life.”

Tommy Thompson…

“President Bush’s decision to commute Scooter Libby’s sentence was absolutely the right thing to do. When former President Bill Clinton was found to have lied to the special prosecutor, he was let go with a simple slap on the wrist. But the court system threw an excessive prison sentence at Mr. Libby. Any reasonable observation of the sentence would conclude that the punishment did not fit the crime. While I do not excuse Libby’s action, I know the President did the right thing in allowing Mr. Libby to return to his life.

I have known Scooter Libby for a number of years, he has been a honorable and hardworking public servant. He had the opportunity to make a lot more money in the private sector, with a lot fewer hassles, but he chose to serve his country. It is also important to note that the underlying charge in the Valerie Plame case was dismissed.”

[Updated 7/3/07]

Mike Huckabee…

“I think the President acted appropriately in exercising his power of clemency for Scooter Libby. As the President noted, Mr. Libby still has to pay his fine of $250,000 and serve two years of probation. The President acted compassionately towards Mr. Libby, his wife, and children, while showing respect for the judicial process.”

More will be added as they are issued.

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Recap of Iowa Presidential Forum

Iowapolitics.com has a nice review up of highlights of the Republican Presidential forum, with statements of Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, and Duncan Hunter on taxes, spending, gay marriage, a fence to stop illegal immigration, stem cell research, and the fair tax. There’s a lot of agreement on most of the issues; spending and taxes have some minor disagreements.

I do want to point out another Tommy Thompson gaffe, this more minor than his previous ones. When asked about building a fence, he said, “The only way to solve the illegal immigration, build a barrier and have a non-tamper-proof ID system.” Assuming he was quoted correctly, “non-tamper-proof” is a double negative, and would mean he supports ID cards that could be tampered with. Obviously he doesn’t support that. But it does seem to indicate a continuing problem with minor rhetorical mistakes when speaking off the top of his head. When people watching a presidential candidate think to themselves ‘that’s not what he really means, he just missopke there’ it removes an element of mystery from the candidate, and humanizes them. When you’re a front runner, this can be an asset (think George W. Bush). But when you’re coming from the back of the pack and desparately are trying to win the Iowa caucus, it can be a detriment.

Just to make clear though, this is absolutely not a criticism of these remarks of Thompson; but rather a look at a trend of his that isn’t showing signs of being over.

Related at 2008 Central:

Tommy Thompson Gets Some Hometown Explaining Gaffes

Tommy Thompson Apologizes for Remarks About Jews

Tommy Thompson: Iowa Straw Poll or Bust

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Press Released: Week of June 24 - July 1

Press Released will cover press releases over the past week that may have gotten overlooked in the media cycle. It’s not meant to be complete, but should be comprehensive including any release relating to national politics. Calendar press releases will not be covered.

Barack Obama

Obama and Sen. Lugar are co-sponsoring an initiative on non-proliferation.

Obama issued a statement on the failed immigration legislation.

Obama issued a statement on the Senate resolution regarding Zimbabwe.

The veterans affairs apprpriations legislation contains elements Obama proposed.

Obama issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

Obama commented on the Middle Eastern summit earlier this week.

Obama issued a statement on stalled ethics reform.

Obama issued a statement on VP Cheney.

Bill Richardson

Richardson issued a statement regarding his support in the Latino community.

Richardson issued a statement regarding theunrest in Iran and how it ought affect American policy.

Richardson issued a statement by Refugees International on Darfur.

Richardson added staff in New Hampshire.

Richardson issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Richardson gave a speech to the Center for National Policy on his vision for foreign policy.

Richardson issued a press release touting that he had broken into the top tier.

Richardson issued a release regarding the veto threat by Pres. Bush regarding the registry in the DC apprpriations bill that would include same-sex couples.

Richardson touted his A grade from New Mexico conservation voters.

Christopher Dodd

Dodd defended the Family and Medical Leave Act he wrote in a letter to Sec. Chao.

Dodd commended the 2007 Presidential scholars for taking a stand against torture.

Dodd issued a statement on the veto threat of Pres. Bush over a registry in DC that would include same-sex couples.

Dodd issued a statement on the SCOTUS diversity ruling.

Dodd’s Youtube spotlight generated significant attention.

Dennis Kucinich

Kucinich appeared on the Late Show, and posted video on his website.

Michael Moore endorsed Kucinich’s health care plan.

Kucinich touted his record of voting in the House.

Kucinich told the US Conference of Mayors that cities have been pushed aside and it is time to make them the ‘heart of America.’

Hillary Clinton

Clinton received endorsements from a Hispanic group; also she received endorsements in Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, California (1, 2), Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Florida.

Clinton is focusing on fixing student loans.

Clinton announced a group of LGBT supporters.

Clinton’s statement on the SCOTUS desegregation case.

Text of the keynote address Clinton gave this week at the Center for a New American Security. Worth a read for her view on foreign policy.

Clinton issued a comment regarding the hearing on air quality on 9/11.

Clinton is co-sponsoring a bill aimed at saving the bee population in America.

Clinton issued a statement on the detention of Iranian-Americans in Iran.

Clinton met with leaders from the Northern Ireland government.

A health IT bill received committee approval in the Senate; a patent bill Clinton is co-sponsoring did the same.

Clinton issued a statement about a Senate bill to support democracy and human rights in Zimbabwe.

Clinton issued a statement regarding the immigration bill.

Joe Biden

Biden issued a statement regarding the SCOTUS school diversity ruling.

Resolution sponsored by Biden that would pay for US dues to UN peacekeeping operations passed committee.

Biden introduced legislation that would create a legal distinction between crack and powder cocaine. He said the Hatch proposal would not go far enough.

Biden issued a statement regarding the Employee Free Choice Act.

Biden introduced legislation to preserve the Underground Railroad.

Biden’s proposal for Iraq continues to gain support.

John Edwards

Edwards launched his first ad in New Hampshire.

Edwards commented on the failure of the Employee Free Choice Act in the Senate.

Edwards held house parties across the country this week.

Edwards received endorsements from African-American and Latino leaders.

Edwards is expanding his operations in New Hampshire.

Edwards issued statements on the direction of the Supreme Court in general, and one specifically about the school diversity decision.

Duncan Hunter

Hunter issued a statement on the immigration bill, after earlier in the week saying that a vote for it would be a vote for amnesty.

Jim Gilmore

Gilmore issued a statement on the immigration bill.

Gilmore issued a statement regarding Sen. Lugar saying it was time to withdraw from Iraq.

John McCain

McCain issued a statement on the Employee Free Choice Act.

McCain issued a statement on the failed immigration bill.

McCain issued a press release about a bill he is sponsoring which would solidify the repeal of the fairness doctrine.

McCain announced endorsements and campaign additions in New Hampshire (1, 2, and 3), Iowa, and South Carolina.

Mike Huckabee

Huckabee is putting the audio of his blogger conference call on his website.

Mitt Romney

Romney issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Romney announced endorsements in Michigan and Washington.

Romney’s campaign called to solicit support this week.

Ron Paul

Paul wrote an article about the stem cell debate missing the point, it should be about the rights of taxpayers, and nothing else.

Paul held a big event in Iowa opposite the presidential forum, and drew more people than the entire forum.

Paul wrote that he was happy the immigration bill failed in the Senate.

Paul’s website is the most popular among all Repulican websites.

The Paul campaign is raising money to pay for their new national headquarters in Arlington.

Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani announced endorsements and campaign additions in California, South Carolina, Florida, and Iowa.

Giuliani issued a statement on the Senate immigration vote.

Giuliani issued a statement regarding the ending term of PM Tony Blair.

Sam Brownback

Brownback criticized Romney’s change in stances on agriculture; with Brownback voting multiple ways on the immigration bill, as I have noted, it seems this might backfire if Brownback is not careful.

Brownback issued a release touting his book, which will be released this week.

Brownback wrote a letter to the White House calling on Pres. Bush to intensify the fight against Islamic extremism.

Brownback commented on his votes on appropriations bills, including some earmarks he proposed for Kansas, and his vote against the foreign aid bill “due to its funding of programs which weaken pro-life policy.”

Tom Tancredo

Tancredo issued a press release celebrating the failure of the immigration bill; he had issued a press release earlier in the week that criticized the Senate for bringing the bill up for debate. Additionally, Tancredo is going to send produce to Sec. Chertoff for suggesting that the failure of the bill is causing food shortages.

Tancredo later in the week called for Ron Paul to be included in the Iowa presidential forum.

Tommy Thompson

Thompson won the Linn County straw poll. I am having difficulty finding details on how many participated in the poll. Here are the percentage results.

Mike Bloomberg

Bloomberg issued a press release about the bond rating for the city and how it is ‘highest rating the City has ever achieved’ and also touts his fiscal management. Possibly innocuous, but with rumors of him running and with his predecessor running, it reads like it might mean something more.

Bloomberg gave a speech about the improving NYC schools.

Mayors against Illegal Guns, the group led by Bloomberg, hailed the removal of the Tiar amendment in the Appropriations bill, saying:

The Tiahrt Amendment, a version of which has been inserted into the Department of Justice appropriations bill each year since Fiscal Year 2003, places broad restrictions on the use of information the ATF collects on guns used in crimes, called trace data. The Tiahrt Amendment also prevents local governments and police from accessing federal crime gun trace data from areas outside their immediate geographic jurisdiction; prevents cities from use of trace data in state and local civil enforcement actions, including gun license revocations; and prevents the ATF from publishing reports that use crime gun trace data to analyze nationwide gun trafficking patterns.

Technical note: all language I use to describe a release is what the candidate uses or what I judge to be the most accurate way of describing the candidate’s position; e.g., if a candidate calls global warming the ‘climate crisis’ I will use that; if they call it ‘alleged global warming’ I will do the same.

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Tommy Thompson: Iowa Straw Poll or Bust

Republican Presidential Candidate has laid his candidacy on the line in terms of the Iowa Straw Poll.

All Headline News reports:

Tommy Thompson has declared the Republican Ames straw poll in Iowa is “very much a must win” for his presidential campaign.

In an interview expected to be broadcast on C-SPAN this weekend, the Republican former Wisconsin governor and Bush administration secretary of health and human services, said he has campaigned in the Hawkeye State “more often than any other candidate” seeking the presidency in 2008.

“I have not missed being there since the first week in December,” Thompson said, according to USA Today. “I’ve been in 52 counties now out of 99 and will be in all 99 before August 11. And I think that’s what you have to do.”

It’s been a challenging campaign thus far for Thompson, with him working harder than any other candidate in Iowa, but with very few results to show for it. Moreover, this seems to be the rhetoric of someone who needs a miracle to just stay in the race at this point. Given the importance of money and organization in the Iowa Straw Poll, I think it’s fair to say a Thompson win would be a major upset over Romney; I even would be moderately surprised (but not shocked) if Thompson even beat either Huckabee or Brownback.

This might be the first sign that Thompson is on the way out of the campaign; he’s even put off his report to the FEC of his finances until August 13, two days after the straw poll. Should he decide to withdraw from the race immediately after the poll, he presumably would not have to file that report.

He’s not giving up without a fight however: he plans a massive campaign push in late July and easrly AUgust in Iowa, visiting the 45 counties in Iowa he has not yet visited.

[Photo Credit: Flickr user millhollin]

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