Warner and Strickland Withdraw from VP Consideration

Over the past week, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland and former Virginia Gov. and current Senate candidate Mark Warner have both withdrawn their names from consideration from consideration to be Sen. Obama’s VP in no uncertain terms.

There words are reminiscent of the words of Civil War Gen. William T. Sherman, who has set the standard for denying anything with his statement of “If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve” regarding the Republican presidential nomination in 1884.

Right now, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has to be considered the front runner for Obama’s VP, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty the favorite for McCain’s VP. We’re going to lay low with the speculation for now though. We’re of the opinion that guessing the VP before hand is largely a waste of time. But rest assured, we’ll cover it thoroughly when it is announced.

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2008 Election Weekly Roundup (June 9-13, 2008)

A roundup of 2008 election news for the week of June 9-13:

• Tim Russert suddenly passed away while at work on Friday (6/13/08).
• Tom Brokaw appropriately reminds viewers to be wary of “commentary disguised as reporting.”
• McCain’s ad-libs on the campaign trail are beginning to confound reporters; thus bringing attention to them.  Some examples are McCain’s “it’s a google” statement or his suggestion that in preparation for natural disasters “We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.”
• Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D) rules out the vice-presidency, saying: ”Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept and if elected I will not serve. So, I don’t know how more crystal clear I can be.”
• Republicans supporting Obama (’Obamacans’) get a spot of attention this week.  A nice rundown of some of the prominent Obamacans can be found here.  And, this story will only continue to get fuel while some major players, like Colin Powell, mull the idea of supporting Obama.
• Jonathan Chait offers his analysis on the current state of the presidential race.  It’s worth a read.
• The Supreme Court extended habeus corpus rights to detainees at Guantanamo.  An excellent roundup of news/information about these decisions can be found here.  This kind of case, especially with its closeness, will continue to remind voters of the importance that this election has for the future direction of the Supreme Court.  John McCain has already called this decision one of the “worst in the history of this country.”
• McCain continues aggressively targeting Hillary supporters and independents.  Tomorrow, McCain will hold a virtual town hall tomorrow for Democratic and Independent voters.

Think there’s something missing? Please let us know (either by email or commenting).  Also, this roundup is not exhaustive and is likely to be supplemented as I digest the rest of news from this week.

 

 

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Jim Gilmore: Not a Better Senate Candidate Than Presidential One

Mark Warner has raised more than 9 times as much as Jim Gilmore so far in the Virginia Senate race and has more than 21 times what Gilmore has in the bank:

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gimore (R), who is seeking the Senate seat of the retiring Sen. John Warner (R), is being crushed by his Democratic opponent, and former Virginia governor Mark Warner, on the fundraising front. This according to the latest reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Gilmore reported raising just $402,000 in the first quarter, according to his first quarter 2008 giling with the FEC, bringing his total raised to just over $753,000 since he jumped into the campaign last November. Gilmore has $208,000 in cash-on-hand.

Mark Warner, on the other hand raised $2.52 million in the first quarter, according to his FEC reports. The Warner for Senate committee reported cash-on-hand of $4.38 million. Warner has raised more than $6.3 million overall since entering the race.

We’ll be looking more at Senate races this summer once the primaries are over, but this underscores the race in Virginia, which will be a crucial swing state likely this fall in the Presidential race. (I’m not optimistic about Gilmore Republicans).

With both Jim Webb and Mark Warner rumored as VP candidates as well, this race will be something to watch.

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Condi Rice And The Vice Presidency…

In a word: no.

Making the rounds today is another article that discusses Condi Rice and the vice presidency. Today’s buzz is generated by the same information in a report from late March.  It’s honestly a nonstory for two reasons: 1) the entire notion that Condi is actively seeking the VP is based on very little substantive information and 2) it wouldn’t matter anyway, since she wouldn’t be picked by McCain.

So then why are bloggers discussing it as though it could be true/likely?  I have no idea.  

Move along people, there’s definitely nothing to see here…

[Photo Credit: MSNBC]

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Notes From The Rest Of The Campaign…

Virtually all the coverage is focused on John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. So, what else is going on in Presidential Election land? Some notes…

• Politically irrelevant (and justifiably so) candidate, Daniel Imperato draws the ire of a librarian. Apparently, Imperato has been placing press releases framed as news stories in foreign news release services that are subsequently getting pick up by Google News and Yahoo News and making their way into readers mailboxes. Some headlines from Imperato’s stealth stories (I do not suggest reading them):
  • Imperato on the Road to Recovery after Surgery - An article about Imperato’s “major eye surgery”
  • 2008 US Presidential Candidate and Papal Knight D. Imperato Named as Grand Prior of Orden Bonaria for the US and Canada, & Wife Jan Deborah
  • Media Alert: The G8 Summit: Subject Africa; Presidential Hopeful Dan Imperato Comments on the G8 Summit and Their Dealings with Africa
  • Leading 2008 Presidential Candidate Imperato Speaks on Corporate America
• Some guy’s been fasting for 3 weeks in hopes of persuading Nader to drop his bid for the presidency. Thus far, this effort has been unsuccessful and will likely remain so, especially given that in the recent Zogby poll, Nader’s polling between 5-6% nationally (caveat emptor: it’s Zobgy). Also, Nader’s picked a running mate - Matt Gonzalez.
• Libertarian George Phillies leads his rivals in individual contributions, which will no doubt be one of his arguments at the Libertarian Party’s Convention (they choose their nominee at the convention). At a recent Libertarian candidates debate, Phillies argued that he had the strongest organization (or one of the strongest organizations) of all the candidates (video of the debate available here). For what it’s worth, Phillies’ claim is probably true. Of all the Libertarian candidates, he’s certainly the most active based on my experience/research/reading.
• In a bold move demonstrating what can only be characterized as confidence, Democratic contender Mike Gravel (yes he’s still in the race despite what you may have heard) has expressed support for Green party hopeful Jesse Johnson. I guess this means the pain train is headed for one of Johnson’s Green Party nomination rivals, Cynthia McKinney?
• Behind, Behind The Scenes: Sam Nunn’s been mentioned as a potential running mate for Mike Bloomberg, when talk of a Bloomberg run was in vogue (but that’s soo yesterday) and there was also talk of him running as an independent a while back. Last month, an article Newsweek named Nunn as a suggested Secretary of State for Obama. Recently, George Will upped the ante by suggesting that Obama pick Nunn as his running mate. Historical note: Nunn was also mentioned as a potential running mate for Kerry in 2004. It’s highly unlikely that Nunn would make Obama’s short list, even with Nunn’s respect as an independent person. Moreover, even if Nunn was on that VP list, it’s also unlikely that he’d accept. But, at least George Will is trying, right?

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2008Central.net Presidential Election Podcast (March 16, 2008)

This podcast discusses (1) the state of the race; (2) updates on John McCain; (3) the Florida and Michigan delegation troubles; (4) a substantive discussion about Obama and Rev. Wright; (5) we answer questions from readers and (6) much much more…

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

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Mitt Romney To Create A PAC

Mitt Romney plans to create a political action committee (PAC):

“We’re thinking about what new entity can be created to allow Governor Romney to remain politically active so he can raise money and campaign for Republicans, and advocate for the issues he cares about,” Eric Fehnrstrom, Romney’s long-time aide, said in an e-mail message.

And just in case McCain doesn’t pick him to be his running-mate (and he won’t), Romney already plans to Read more

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Ten Things To Read Today (Wednesday, March 12)

Today’s “should-reads”…

1. The Obama campaign picked a fight with the Clinton campaign over the statement that North Carolina would not be contested in the general election. This led to a conference call, the audio of which we have posted here. Marc Ambinder notes the state could conceivably be a swing state this cycle; Obama is currently up 8 points for the primary that is scheduled on May 6. More out there is the suggestion that Obama could contest Kansas this fall, based only on it is where his grandmother was from and that some McCain aides lobbied against Boeing and for Airbus in the recent tanker deal. The McCain campaign finds the idea of any fire to this smoke preposterous. Matthew Yglesias says people should look at all states that could conceivably be in play depending on the nominee, not just ones that Kerry barely lost.
2. Rudy Giuliani is holding a press conference tomorrow in Pennsylvania; Hotline speculates that he may be the chair of McCain’s VP Selection Committee. Of course, the chair of George W. Bush’s committee was one Richard Cheney. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney tells Hannity that he’d love the job and that McCain is the “Big Dog.”
3. Josh Patashnik finds that Obama is running away from reformist credentials on education instead of running on them. A great read that briefly also touches on Clinton’s traditional Democratic approach to education (and hence the NEA endorsement) and that McCain would probably not waste political capital on the issue if elected. Considering the renewal of No Child Left Behind that awaits the next President, it’s an issue that should be getting far more attention than it is. (Required nod to Ed in 08).
4. I want the Geraldine Ferraro fiasco to be over with, so let me just link to Ezra Klein saying that candidates are who they are and hypotheticals in that regard are absurd, since it’s what I would have written had I thought of it. Her tour of talk shows this morning was embarassing to me as a person who thinks ideas in politics should matter, and it’s about time she was removed from the Clinton campaign, who at least twice reiterated that Ferraro was not speaking for them. They apparently forced her to resign, and while I still have unanswered questions (why resign if you are “absolutely not” sorry for your comments?), it’s for the best to leave them unanswered and just move on.
5. There is now an official projection of Obama winning the Texas caucus (technically conventions) by CNN, though the final tally will not be in for a while. And it appears that between those caucuses, and the results in Wyoming and Mississippi, that Obama has completely made up any delegate gains of Clinton on March 4. In fact, Obama will get more delegates from Texas than Clinton will. The math keeps hurting Clinton at this point; Andrew Sullivan points to a Daily Kos analysis that posits even a big win in Pennsylvania will only get Clinton a relatively small number of delegates; Obama could make up that amount in North Carolina and Indiana. Andrew Romano meanwhile interviews Pennsylvania politics expert G. Terry Madonna on all things Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Ambinder has the Obama campaign delegate spreadsheet on where the race is.
6. Hillary Clinton won a good amount of Republicans in Mississippi yesterday, and Mark Blumenthal investigates why.

Read more

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Rove Talking Up Romney For VP

Take this with a grain of salt since the source if Robert Novak, but there are reported whispers of a push for Romney to be McCain’s vp choice:

A footnote: Karl Rove and other prominent Republicans are talking up a McCain-Romney harmony ticket despite personal dislike between the two presidential candidates. Romney also would have to overcome opposition to him going on the ticket by his closest advisers.

Recently, we noted one of Mitt Romney’s sons hinting at the possibility of his father taking the VP spot.  Ann Coulter has also urged McCain to pick Romney as his running mate, Read more

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Clinton to Appear on SNL Tonight and other notes.

Let’s hope she’s funnier than in the debates. Video will be posted as soon as it’s available.

In other news:

The Texas caucus has disaster written all over it. There needs to be some sort of permanent leaders in these from now on who know what they’re doing. It’s ridiculous to elect a chair and secretary every time. Or, at least, let’s encourage campaigns to work together for on this.

Obama picked up a superdelegate in Alabama.

John Kerry of all people caused the Clinton campaign headaches in Texas.

The Washington Post editorial board (rightly) says both Obama and Clinton are pandering on NAFTA.

Kevin Sheekey, formerly the Bloomberg aide seemingly in charge of floating rumors of Bloomberg running for President, now floats rumors of Bloomberg being Obama’s VP.

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Live Blog Of CNN / LA Times / Politico Republican Debate In California (January 30, 2008)

[NOTE: If you're looking for coverage of the CNN/LA Times/Politico Democratic Debate in California between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, you can find our live blog of that debate here]

Tonight is the CNN/Los Angeles/Politico Republican Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. It will begin at 8pm est and will air on CNN and will stream live at both CNN and LA Times‘ websites. The participating candidates will be Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

7:45: 15 minutes to go. I’m not sure what the seating locations will be yet, but I do know that McCain’s staffer won the first pick for location on the stage and had to call back to headquarters to confirm the location.

7:49: Format: No rules, No time limits. I guess ever since Wolf Blitzer threw out the rules at the last debate, CNN’s just decided to really go wild.

7:58: Lou Dobbs is expressing outrage (not necessarily about anything specific…just outrage…he wants you to know that he’s very disturbed).

8:00: And here we go! Anderson Cooper begins with a history lesson about the room they’re in. Usually, I’m opposed to these kind of explanatory intros, but given the fact that the debate is being held under the old Air Force One, I can understand the need to explain what the deal with the plane is.

8:03: First question, are Americans better off now than they were 8 years ago? Mitt Romney says that that’s a question for President Bush, then launches into defense of his record in Mass. Anderson Cooper gets indignant and wants an answer, Romney shows viewers that he’s able to stand up to Anderson Cooper, but does offer some discussion of the problems he sees in America now.

8:06: McCain says he’ll bring some straight talk, offers a bit of gloom and then talks about making the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain states that he believes Americans are better off now than they were 8 years ago, if you look at everything.

8:07: Huckabee plainly states that he doesn’t think we’re better off now than we were 8 years ago, states that the President isn’t solely responsible, so is the congress. Huckabee says that Americans want someone that is honest and straight with them. I wonder if he’s aware that McCain already has that catchphrase locked up?

8:09: Paul states the problems are caused by foreign policy and we must acknowledge that those policies need to come to an end.

8:12: Romney takes a shot at McCain’s conservatism by noting McCain’s NY Times endorsement. McCain reminds Romney that both of Romney’s hometown papers, which know him best, endorsed him over Romney. Ouch. McCain continues to talk up his conservatism by mentioning some people that support him.

8:15: Romney defends his record on job growth by noting that some of the negative data on job growth included a time period under the former Governor. He also explains the fee increases under his administration. Romney also touts the work he did on health care and notes that when he left there was a balanced budget and a small surplus.

8:18: Huckabee talks conservatism: lower taxes, streamlining the government, amendment banning gay marriage and a life amendment. Something about these, “who is more conservative” questions seem sort of pointless at some point.

8:21: McCain is asked about Gov. Schwarzenegger’s environmental law proposals, which are much different than the steps that the Bush Administration would take towards combating climate change. Given the impending endorsement for Arnold, obviously McCain needs to tread lightly and he does. He responds by noting that he believes in federalism, which has really turned into code for “I won’t force you to do something. Please don’t shy away from me because of this issue.” McCain then gives his oft used version of Pascal’s Wager for support of green technology.

8:25: Romney says that he supports states’ rights to control and regulate their own emissions. Huckabee then tries to explain why Federalism is good, he then goes on to state that Alexander Hamilton was wrong. Uhhhh….he’s having a difficult enough time staying in this race against Romney, McCain and Paul…I’m pretty sure injecting Hamilton into this race would only make it worse for him. *sigh*

8:29: Paul asks for some time to discuss and issue and Cooper denies him. For a debate that wasn’t really supposed to have rules, Anderson Cooper seems awfully indignant.

8:33: Talk turns to the economy…excuse me while I relocate to the top floor of my building, preferably a seat near the edge…

8:35: On the economic stimulus: McCain says that we will probably need more. Wow! This is like saying that we need more puppies, fluffier pillows or locations that have Coke Zero available from the fountain.

8:36: McCain is challenged on his initial opposition to Bush’s tax cuts on the grounds that they favored the rich too much. McCain states that he was a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution…then proceeds with obfuscation.

8:40: The topic changes to immigration. Huckabee thinks we need to secure the border. He says that two things need to happen in order to do that: 1) build border fence and 2) all current illegal immigrants will need to go back to their home countries and wait in line. Ultimately, Huckabee thinks this is the most compassionate and kind thing…

8:41: Romney is asked about his statement that most illegal immigrants could be deported within 90 days. He didn’t initially recall saying it, and the questioner offered him the quote. Romney talks about being courteous deportation. For example, if the family has a child in school, you let the child finish that school year first. Romney reemphasizes he would not allow illegal immigrants to remain here permanently, then suggests that McCain’s legislation would have allowed for such a thing.

8:44: McCain is asked if his legislation were to come to the floor of the Senate today, and he states that it won’t happen. After being pressed, he states that he would not vote for it because it’s clear that people want the borders to be secured first. It seems somewhat inconsistent for McCain to tout sticking to his principles and ignoring the majority on Iraq…yet, so freely acknowledging deference to the will of the American people on the immigration issue.

8:47: Huckabee is asked if Reagan’s appointment of O’Connor was the right call. He won’t answer the question, but then launches into a discussion of why it’s important to support life and how he would want judges that were pro-life. Ron Paul is given a chance to respond, he says he wouldn’t have nominated her because of her view towards the constitution. Both McCain and Romney dodge the question and instead state the types of judges they would appoint. In a bold move, McCain cites Alito and Roberts as examples of the kinds of conservative judges he’d support. Romny ups the ante and cites Alito, Roberts, Thomas and Scalia as the type of conservative judges he would nominate (Yea, that’s right, take that John McCain). Then, stupidly, Romney takes a shot at O’Connor for apparently not following the Constitution enough and for legislating from the bench. I don’t care if you’re a Republican, Democrat, hardcore liberal or conservative, if you think Justice O’Connor was a bad Justice, then you’re either completely uninformed or completely incapable of making evaluations. Sheesh, and I thought Huckabee was going to take home the award for baseless attacks on historical figures (yes, I know O’Connor’s still alive, but she’s done enough to be part of history).

8:57: And we’re back. Maybe, they’ll finally include Ron Paul in this last half hour.

8:58: Romney is asked about Peggy Noonan’s contention that George W. Bush destroyed the Republican party. Romney states that George W. Bush showed everyone that when America is attacked, we’ll respond. Uhhhh….is that really the best defense he could give?

9:00: Romney promises success in Iraq, which he defines as no safe havens for terrorists in Iraq. He strongly stated that he does not have a date for withdrawal and does not support a timetable. He accuses McCain of being un-Reagan like by raising the issue before the Florida primary and indicates that it may explain the results of Florida.

9:03: McCain reiterates his argument by reading the quote to Romney. Romney asks him what it means. Romney continues to try and defend himself. The audience seems to be on Romney’s side on this issue. Romney and McCain bicker. McCain’s tone during this exchange, reminds me of my grandfather’s tone when we were having an argument about cathode ray tubes once (he used to be an engineer).

9:06: Anderson Cooper regains control, unfortunately, it required his blue steel look in order to calm things down. Cooper asks Romney why he wouldn’t comment explicitly on the surge back in 2006 as he was preparing to announce his run. Romney is mad and accuses McCain of “Washington style” politics.

9:08: McCain responds to the Washington style politics line, by reminding Romney of the negative ads he used against him and Huckabee. He also reminded everyone that Romney used millions of his own dollars in his campaign so far.

9:10: Paul is asked about McCain’s line that we could be fighting in Iraq for the next 100 years. So let me get this straight, the rare chance they include Paul, it’s to ask him a question about John McCain? Paul states that both Romney and McCain are parsing over minor details of the same general policy - both supported going in and both support continuing the war. Paul’s gotten the loudest cheers so far.

9:12: Anderson Cooper asks Huckabee the same question given to Paul. Huckabee complains about not getting time and questions. Then casually says in regards to the 100 year fighting line, “oh it doesn’t take that long.” Then goes on to say that he’ll stay however long it takes to win.

9:13: Huckabee is asked what he sees when he looks int Putin’s eyes. Huckabee states that Putin has taken actions that lead to concern and that we need to have a foreign policy that emphasizes strength. Advocates a stronger military, you know, for deterrence. Is he actually arguing that a return to mutually assured destruction is the only viable foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia at this point? *sigh*

9:17: Romney explains geopolitics: Russia using energy to control policy, China “the wild west of energy” using energy and giving nuclear power to influence policy, Al Qaeda using terrorism to influence policy and the USA, which stands for free enterprise and freedom of the individual. I don’t even know how to respond to this painfully oversimplified explanation of geopolitics. However, would Romney’s analogy make Chris Patten the Wyatt Earp of China? I think so. But aside from that, Romney didn’t even discuss the topic (that he himself said he’d address), which was how he’d deal with Russia.

9:21: Romney’s argument: people ultimately look to Governors and not Senators to lead this country. He was a governor, ipso facto, he should be the next leader. Aside from that, he worked in the private sector, and then goes on his economic argument rant…

9:23: Romney is asked why he’s more qualified to be Commander-in-Chief than McCain. Romney doesn’t believe you need military experience to be Commander-in-Chief. Romney says that he prefers chess to checkers (I’m serious).

9:24: McCain responds, takes an irrelevant shot at Romney for having led corporations that fired people. Another ouch. McCain mentions Tom Ridge for the second time this evening.

9:25: Ron Paul states that these people don’t understand that the President isn’t supposed to run the economy and reminds everyone of that fact. Paul then discusses the monetary system. Paul’s discussion of substance causes Andersoon Cooper to become impatient.

9:28: Huckabee complains more about time. Then talks about less government and why it’s important. He states that governors are good presidents because they understand that no issue is isolated..that everything is connected. Metakuya Oyasin.

9:30: Anderson Cooper graciously gives all of the candidates 1 minute to explain why Ronald Reagan would endorse them. This is an appalling question for several reasons, none the least of which is Nancy Reagan’s presence in the first row.

9:31: Mitt Romney says Ronald Reagan would support him because he’d lower taxes. McCain says that Reagan wouldn’t support someone that changes positions and that Regan would support him because he held firm on Iraq and because he was a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution.

9:32: Ron Paul talked about how he supported Reagan in 1976, when only 4 other members of congress did and how Reagan campaigned with him. He states that Reagan was very sympathetic to the gold standard (an issue that Ron Paul is very much in favor of).

9:33: Huckabee doesn’t presume to know who Reagan would endorse. Then speaks to the goodness of Reagan and how it’s important to recapture that can do spirit.

9:34: And we’re done.

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Kos Pains Me…

Kos writing on who Bill Richardson should endorse:

Endorse no one, Bill! Except he’s one of my two top choices for the veep slot (the other is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius), and I doubt that slot will go to someone who sits out the primary.

This is the kind of silly talk that makes me realize that if I started this website 8 years ago instead of 1 year ago, that it’d be just as big (probably bigger) than Daily Kos. My point being that people can’t really be flocking to him for brilliant political analysis, right? It must be because he’s just been around a while. I mean my goodness…

I’ve already touched on the subject of a Richardson VP possibility before, but with all the new talk out there, I’ll probably update this analysis in the next couple of days. What I said in early December about why a Hillary/Richardson ticket will not happen (not all, but some of the same arguments apply to why an Obama/Richardson ticket is also unlikely): Read more

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VP Watch: Mark Sanford Continues To Raise National Profile

South Carolina Governor, Mark Sanford continued his VP quest with an appearance on yesterday’s The Colbert Report. This appearance was no doubt an effort to raise his national profile a bit. Sanford’s name has been dropped by various Republican contenders as a potential running mate since early 2007. Sanford, whose refusal to endorse a candidate going into the SC primary, fueled VP speculation despite his consistent statements that he was not interested in the job.

There was really no reason for Sanford to make the appearance other than a desire to get some free national media. So, regardless of his statements, he’s at least setting himself up for the slot.

Related at 2008Central.net:

• Romney Already Dropping VP Names (3/29/07)

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Hillary Clinton Hints At Possible Bill Richardson VP?

At the Brown-Black Forum over this past weekend, Sen. Clinton and Gov. Richardson had a cute exchange over the VP slot:

After first comparing himself to former Arkansas governor and former president Bill Clinton saying they were both CEOs and have both balanced budgets,

Richardson asked Clinton, “Don’t you think that governors make good presidents?”

“Well, Bill, I think they also make good vice presidents,” replied Clinton

Of course, this exchange has only added to the already widespread speculation that 1) Richardson is “running” to be Hillary’s VP and/or 2) Clinton is open to picking Richardson as her running mate.

The reality is simple: Hillary Clinton will not choose Bill Richardson as her running mate for a whole host of reasons…

1. Richardson’s position and rhetoric on the Iraq War is different enough from Sen. Clinton’s that it could create an issue in the general election where Clinton is spending time dealing with Richardson’s position and rhetoric on the issue. Richardson wants out immediately (a position that he’s evolved to and accordingly is subject to the “flip flop” attacks), whereas Clinton wants a slower withdrawal with a continuation of anti-terrorist operations. Their positions are incompatible enough to preclude him from being a viable VP choice.
2. Richardson’s rhetoric on Immigration, again, is very un-Clintonian.
3. Some of Richardson’s flaws with respect to his work as Secretary of Energy have really not been discussed during this election cycle, but they were a significant consideration for Al Gore in 2000, when Gore crossed him off the VP list.
4. Richardson is too undisciplined to be brought into the Clinton presidential election machine.

So, for you Richardson folks, I am sorry to disappoint, but if he doesn’t win the nomination this time around, don’t count on him running in ‘08 as the VP. That said, if Richardson does lose, I don’t expect him to simply fade away.

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Bill Richardson: Is He Maneuvering For The Vice Presidency?

Is Bill Richardson “running” for President in order to actually run for Vice President?

Well, Dana Milbank of The Washington Post seems to think so:

Running for the vice presidency is a delicate operation, but Bill Richardson seems to be getting the hang of it.

The New Mexico governor is running for president, of course, but should that fail he has already mastered the first responsibility of the running mate: Don’t overshadow the top of the ticket. This trait was in evidence last week when Richardson gave a lunchtime foreign policy speech in Washington at the exact moment Hillary Clinton was giving one of her own.

Milbank’s analysis as to why Richardson is vice presidential material is severely lacking, so much so, that I do not even recommend reading the article.  However, it did get me thinking about something I said back in January regarding the prospects of Richardson being the vice presidential choice:

Also, I believe it’s very possible that Richardson is going to try a completely unique western/southwestern strategy in hopes of picking up the VP spot if he can’t win the nomination. If he uses this time to start securing a strong support base in the west, he would make a very tempting vice-president prospect for any nominee; especially this election cycle, when the west will be critical to a general election strategy.

With that in mind, let’s look at what’s happening now with the expansion of Richardson’s campaign…

Richardson announced that he will be increasing his campaign efforts in South Carolina.  He openly acknowledges that he won’t win South Carolina, but emphasized the importance of grassroots efforts (read: cheap) in order to build support in this state.  Why would a candidate with precious resources expand their operation instead of focusing it?  A few reasons: 

• Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama have visited South Carolina in the past, but not nearly as much as they visit Iowa or New Hampshire.  Thus, there’s a nice opportunity for Richardson to compete in an early primary state without constantly being overshadowed by “rock stars” (as he calls them).
• Name recognition.  Richardson suffers from a lack of name recognition.  Expanding his operation increases his name recognition and if he does it cheaply, it increases it with little cost.  The stronger Richardson’s name recognition is, the better he’ll do in national polls, which can help fuel momentum (public opinion polls are like giant sign posts for most of the folks in the mainstream media).  Additionally, increased name recognition places him in a better position when it comes time for the candidate, if it’s not him, to select a running mate.  Richardson’s working hard at the name game - thus far, he has run the second most TV advertisements out of both Democratic and Republican candidates (granted, the majority of them were in Iowa).  The point remains: he understands the importance of increasing his name recognition.
• South Carolina is a Republican state.  Bill Richardson is the Governor of a Republican state (albeit a state that is less conservative than South Carolina).  If Richardson can tap into the South and expand his influence beyond the Southwest, then yet again he’ll have helped make himself a more attractive VP choice for the nominee.
• Money.  Breaking into new territory means that Richardson can now look to new people for donations.  His expansion into South Carolina now is most likely the result of good financial planning.  Richardson’s geographic sphere of influence is significantly smaller than Clinton’s and Obama’s.  I imagine he’s beginning to tap out his financial backers in his region, which means that if he wants to continue raising the kind of money he has the past 6 months, he needs to expand.  The added bonus of course is that having a financial operation set up in South Carolina, yet again increases his appeal as a VP choice, since it’ll offer the nominee money and an established fundraising operation (read: money talks).

Now, let’s circle back to Milbank’s article…

Ignoring his analysis, he mentions something (and to my surprise doesn’t discuss it any further detail):

Richardson, speaking to the Center for National Policy, was introduced by former congressman Tim Roemer. Another former White House chief of staff, Mack McLarty, attended Richardson’s speech — but McLarty is already backing Clinton.

“I’m very proud to be Mack McLarty’s second choice in this race,” Richardson said.

“Good position to be in,” Roemer judged.

Mack McLarty’s presence at a Richardson event, especially while an event for Hillary Clinton was taking place around the same time and in the same town, seems very odd to me (and certainly deserving of a bit more attention).  McLarty is a lifelong friend of Bill Clinton; he is also currently working outside of politics. McLarty has already committed his support to Sen. Clinton, but he does have some relationship with Richardson (they co-wrote this article on energy back in 2001).  If a lifelong friend of Giulian’s suddenly showed up Mitt Romney’s event, I think people would at least wonder what’s going on.  Same goes here…Why was McLarty at Richardson’s event?  Who knows.  Perhaps he was just really jazzed about hearing Richardson speak, perhaps he had a meeting at the same place and figured he’d pop by or perhaps he was just scouting Richardson on the trail…you never know when you may need to offer some old friends advice on who to pick as a running mate.

[Note: I am not suggesting that Richardson will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President, nor am I suggesting that he's running for Vice President.  I am simply saying that he is certainly creating a fallback by setting himself up for VP consideration.  There are plenty of negatives to say about Richardson as the VP nominee, but I'll save those for another post]

[Photo Credit: Flickr user Center For American Progress Action Fund]

Related at 2008Central.net:

• Bill Richardson Scrutinized Over Lobbyist in Governor’s Office (7/6/07)
• Bill Richardson Would Use Abortion As Litmus Test When Appointing Supreme Court Justices (6/25/07)
• Vice President Tom Ridge? (5/10/07)

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Is Tom Ridge Abandoning McCain?

We have no inside information that it is the case, but some curious events happened this weekend at the summer meeting of the Pennsylvania Republican Party:

John McCain at the last minute backed out of a previously scheduled appearance at the meeting, for the stated purpose of voting on the immigration reform bill on the Senate floor. Given the precarious state of the legislation even before it failed, his vote surely was needed, but on the other hand, it has not stopped him from missing votes, as showed here earlier in the week.

Tom Ridge gave the closing speech at the meeting this morning, and was introduced as “the most popular politician in Pennsylvania” and was given a standing ovation. One would think that someone that popular in Pennsylvania would have some coattails and sway in getting people to support the candidate he has endorsed and campaigned for. Well, if you thought that you would be wrong. While only a portion of the Republican leadership voted, Rudy Giuliani overwhelmingly won the straw poll, with 87 votes. Fred Thompson was a distant second with 40 votes; Mitt Romney received 12 votes and Newt Gingrich ten. John McCain received only 7 votes. (Ron Paul, Tommy Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Mike Huckabee, and Sam Brownback each received less than 5). Not only that, there is also the vague report by the Patriot-News that “The fact that it didn’t mean anything doesn’t mean the straw poll was without controversy, though. … And others believe it was an unsuccessful attempt by some party leaders to help U.S. Sen. John McCain’s office.”

Lastly, a Patriot-News interview with Tom Ridge showed him starting to turn away from McCain on McCain’s signature issue of Iraq.:

Time is running out for success in Iraq, said former Gov. Tom Ridge, adding his voice to the growing number of leading Republicans saying that the current American strategy in Iraq is not working.

“There will be a major readjustment, even from the White House on down” if progress is not achieved within a couple months, predicted Ridge during an interview today.

“There is very little sand left in the hourglass of Iraq,” said the former Homeland Security secretary, who said patience even among Republicans is wearing thin for the unpopular war.

“There’s more sand at the bottom of the hourglass than at the top, and at some point of time…somebody’s going to have to make a decision on when or how we make a withdrawal” he said.

It’s worth remembering at this point that Ridge was the person McCain had in the spin room talking about his candidacy after the first debate. He’s also someone who has been floated as a VP candidate with McCain should McCain take the nomination. For him to back off on Iraq like this is something that should be taken seriously. While Ridge has said previously that he has policy disagreements with McCain, it’s hard to imagine it on an issue as crucial as this.

If McCain’s serious and significant list of political allies cannot help him get any more than this level of support - and possibly even backfire - there can only be two logical implications: either the endorsements do not mean anything or those endorsing him are abandoning him. My gut says that the former is far more likely than the latter now, but it’s probably still far too early to tell for sure.

Related at 2008 Central:

Members Of Congress Are Missing A Very Large Amount Of Votes To Run For President

Vice President Tom Ridge?

McCain Attacks Romney on Immigration, Guns, Flip-Flopping; Begins Attack on Thompson

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Scrutiny Of Mike Huckabee’s Son Causes Concern

Mike Huckabee’s candidacy continues to grow and gain momentum - just look at the latest Mason-Dixon poll that has him at 5% in New Hampshire, or the buzz about Mike Huckabee being a potential choice for Vice-President (an idea that he’s beginning to warm up to).  However, as Huckabee’s campaign gains steam, the scrutiny of his life will intensify…

Back in April, we blogged about the arrest of his son, David Huckabee,  after airport authorities found a loaded gun that he accidentally left in his carry on luggage.  Recently, Radar Online took a deeper look at the potential liabilty of Mike Huckabee’s son:

In 1998, a teenage Huckabee (he’s now 26) was fired from his job at a Boy Scout camp for his reported involvement in an incident where a stray dog was brutally killed. While an elected student leader in college, his questionable private business dealings with a student organization created a local controversy that resulted in Huckabee bitterly paying for business licenses with over 6,000 pennies. A Little Rock paper even ran an unsubstantiated charge about marijuana that earned them a libel suit.

In some ways the increased scrutiny is a double edged sword.  On the one hand, it means that Gov. Huckabee is beginning to break away from the pack of second tier candidates, which is no small task on the Republican side with 3 frontrunners and two strong candidates on the sidelines (Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich).  On the other hand, these kind of issues run the risk of leaving voters to wonder whether or not Huckabee has liabilities that would overshadow his strengths.  While, I don’t think the existing controversy about his son will have any noticeable impact on Huckabee’s campaign or his momentum, it may hurt him down the road if his star continues to rise or, more likely, significantly hurt his chances of getting the vice-presidential slot.

In my opinion, the Huckabee campaign should get control of this issue now.  Instead of letting others introduce David Huckabee to potential voters, they should remove David from the shadows and involve him with the campaign.  Let him post a few blog posts or appear at a few events in support of Mike Huckabe.  Give voters the opportunity to evaluate him themselves, so that any subsequent criticism of David will be evaluated against their positive experiences with David.

[Photo Credit: Rador Online - Mike Huckabee (inset) and David Huckabee]

You May Have Missed…

• Mike Huckabee’s Son Arrested With Gun (4/27/07)

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Vice President Tom Ridge?

Speaking to reporters in Harrisburg, PA yesterday, former Pennsylvania Governor and former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge stated that he will be supporting John McCain for president:

“In a nutshell, I’m looking for a president who endorses the notion that the Republican Party, of necessity, to be a national party, must be a big-tent party. My friend John and I don’t agree on several issues, but he’s never been judgmental about it. That’s just never been his style. John is someone who has a record of reaching across the aisle to find solutions and answer some of the more pressing problems in this country. And I think that’s the kind of approach that we need, and I think he’ll bring it to the White House, and the kind of tone he’ll set for the country.”[Source]

The fact that Gov. Ridge is supporting McCain really isn’t anything new, since the McCain campaign announced Ridge’s support and his position as a National Co-Chair back in February. Ridge’s performance on the stump yesterday and the way he’s trying to pull in the rest of the Pennsylvania delegation is already leading to speculation about a McCain-Ridge ticket; Ridge’s coy response when asked about such a ticket will further fuel speculation:

Asked if he would be McCain’s running mate, Ridge demurred.

“I’m not presumptuous enough to think he’s even interested and that conversation has not occurred, and I’m not going to initiate it.”

If asked what would he say?

“I’ll tell you after he asks me.”

Ridge also took an opportunity to address Rudy Giuliani’s substantial lead over McCain in the Pennsylvania polls:

The heroes of 9/11 raced up the stairs and never came back down. I’m going to put it all in perspective. Rudy Giuliani did a great job as mayor, and we’re not going to denigrate that. Rudy is a celebrity. Rudy is a strong candidate, and he’s got this persona about him that has been very attractive to people. And we all understand that within the campaign. The kind of strength he showed after 9/11 was really very appealing. For the time being, the polls in Pennsylvania are what they are. We’re focused on the polls in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, and Rudy would like to have our kind of numbers there.

For complete coverage of Ridge’s discussion, check out reporter John Micek’s account.

More on this… Read more

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